One important question I have on the last drive

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's the same play...in every thread...with the same comments...and the same answer...

If that’s the case, then the fault lies with Brown. And instead of criticizing Allen, perhaps he should get some credit for recognizing what he saw pre snap and remembering what I’m sure he saw in film study all week relative to the coverage techniques favored by the Browns’ CBs. 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

If that’s the case, then the fault lies with Brown. And instead of criticizing Allen, perhaps he should get some credit for recognizing what he saw pre snap and remembering what I’m sure he saw in film study all week relative to the coverage techniques favored by the Browns’ CBs. 

Allen's pass wasn't bad - it was back shoulder IIRC

[K-9]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

Allen's pass wasn't bad - it was back shoulder IIRC

Right. As the guys were discussing on One Bills Live this afternoon, Allen’s hot signal to Brown on that play specifically called for the back shoulder throw to Brown and Brown simply missed it. That’s not on Allen, especially because it would have been completed otherwise. Frustrating.

[34-78-83]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

If that’s the case, then the fault lies with Brown. And instead of criticizing Allen, perhaps he should get some credit for recognizing what he saw pre snap and remembering what I’m sure he saw in film study all week relative to the coverage techniques favored by the Browns’ CBs. 

Correct.

Now that we have the feedback from Brown, Allen and Dabol on it , PLUS the video we know that :

 

1 - Josh properly identified the coverage and knew that JB had isolated 1v1 coverage - this was the primary WR's hot route on the play.

2- Josh properly identified the DB maintaining deep and inside leverage on JB and thus the adjustment to a back shoulder throw.

3- Josh put the ball in a very catchable spot for the back shoulder, had JB read and timed it better.

 

[Big Blitz]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Case closed?

 

 

Always throw INTO the blitz.  It was coming hard from the left.  I think Allen made up his mind he was going where it was 1 on 1 with Brown for a big play.  I don't mind that.....in any other situation.  And it isn't a wrong decision.

 

But the safe play was throw it to the blitz and hit---I think that's Knox---out of that bunch look.  

 

He chose a low percentage play.  Should have took the 7 yard hitch.  

[K-9]

7 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Correct.

Now that we have the feedback from Brown, Allen and Dabol on it , PLUS the video we know that :

 

1 - Josh properly identified the coverage and knew that JB had isolated 1v1 coverage - this was the primary WR's hot route on the play.

2- Josh properly identified the DB maintaining deep and inside leverage on JB and thus the adjustment to a back shoulder throw.

3- Josh put the ball in a very catchable spot for the back shoulder, had JB read and timed it better.

 

Brown’s missed a couple critical reads lately. Against Philly, he was supposed to run a skinny post, but instead broke too severely towards the coverage which caused Josh to hesitate and allow it to be broken up. He runs that skinny post and it’s an easy TD at a critical juncture. 
 

Allen has little room for error as it is and it’s beyond frustrating that big plays are being missed due to errors by others and yet Allen gets the blame.

Edited November 11, 2019 by K-9

[Reed83HOF]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Right. As the guys were discussing on One Bills Live this afternoon, Allen’s hot signal to Brown on that play specifically called for the back shoulder throw to Brown and Brown simply missed it. That’s not on Allen, especially because it would have been completed otherwise. Frustrating.

I get the cover 0 dictated was the check is, but I just don't like that call on 3rd and 4 with the game on the line (it's the circumstance and not anything other than that). The other issue is we were locked in on personnel as well at that point and wasted a ton of clock. I wonder if we have the play down enough to use the slot WR in motion across the line to beat it that way. I can't recall us using that play yet to beat it. It's just over all crappy that we were awful on 3rd down and even put ourselves in that position...sucks man

 

I would also like to throw out there (for the masses and not you) Cover 0 is what the Cheats used against Darnold when he was seeing "ghosts". 

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I get the cover 0 dictated was the check is, but I just don't like that call on 3rd and 4 with the game on the line (it's the circumstance and not anything other than that).

 

It was the same exact play call we ran against the Jets on 3rd and 4 when we scored the go ahead TD. It was a good call. Brown just misread the situation.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I get the cover 0 dictated was the check is, but I just don't like that call on 3rd and 4 with the game on the line (it's the circumstance and not anything other than that). The other issue is we were locked in on personnel as well at that point and wasted a ton of clock. I wonder if we have the play down enough to use the slot WR in motion across the line to beat it that way. I can't recall us using that play yet to beat it. It's just over all crappy that we were awful on 3rd down and even put ourselves in that position...sucks man

 

I would also like to throw out there (for the masses and not you) Cover 0 is what the Cheats used against Darnold when he was seeing "ghosts". 

 

Yeah - it's a tough call.  You don't have time to motion or do much of anything.  he took 2 seconds to point at JB and say... something that means back shoulder... JB nodded and that was the play.  It's the best you can do there. 

 

If we hadn't bunched they probably don't give that look.  Either way... wish we had another timeout.  Wish we just rushed to the line and ran whatever play is in the book there so you get a chance to think at the LOS - instead of having coach calling a play and in your ear.  

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

It was the same exact play call we ran against the Jets on 3rd and 4 when we scored the go ahead TD. It was a good call. Brown just misread the situation.

 

Yeah - he was lined up super tight and had a ton of boundary space but he should know that that ball is going to the sideline.

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Brown’s missed a couple critical reads lately. Against Philly, he was supposed to run a skinny post, but instead broke too severely towards the coverage which caused Josh to hesitate and allow it to be broken up. He runs that skinny post and it’s an easy TD at a critical juncture. 
 

Allen has little room for error as it is and it’s beyond frustrating that big plays are being missed due to errors by others and yet Allen gets the blame.

Allen has been a monster in the red zone, Brown said this is the most complex offense he has ever been in, Allen has some poor throws and misfires, Allen can't hit the deepball; etc. We cannot absolve Josh for everything, but there are other players having issues. The other WRs - how are they with route trees and making the reads, might explain why some aren't in on certain situations, Ford at RT, Morse getting blown up, Lee Smith penalties putting us in unfavorable down and distance, Daboll making you scratch your head. You cannot put it all on one person, too many fingers in this pot

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It was the same exact play call we ran against the Jets on 3rd and 4 when we scored the go ahead TD. It was a good call. Brown just misread the situation.

It was all based on the coverage and you only have 1 spot to go with the ball. Where I like the slot WR motioning and chipping the FS is that you can force a Cover 1 out of it and open the rest of the routes up. It was an all or nothing shot there on 3rd and 4th . Just sucks to lose like that when you should have won...

[34-78-83]

41 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Always throw INTO the blitz.  It was coming hard from the left.  I think Allen made up his mind he was going where it was 1 on 1 with Brown for a big play.  I don't mind that.....in any other situation.  And it isn't a wrong decision.

 

But the safe play was throw it to the blitz and hit---I think that's Knox---out of that bunch look.  

 

He chose a low percentage play.  Should have took the 7 yard hitch.  

Beasley's opening up on the play had to develop (although quickly) as Dabol explained, due to the bunch concept over on that side. In hindsight yes, it would have worked and been a very high percentage completion.

 

JB was a clear cut 1v1 match-up as dictated by the coverage look.

 

The rule for always throw into the blitz isn't always in play. It depends on the design and intent.

 

A Rodgers would likely have also taken the JB route I would suspect.

 

And yes they hit Knox on it earlier in the game out of that play with a slightly different defensive look.

 

 

[jrober38]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

With all respect, @jrober38, when you say something like

" Tyrod Taylor was run out of town for posting better numbers than Allen has. If he wasn't good enough (he wasn't), why are people trying to tell me Allen is? "

 

I think the implication is, you feel if TT was run out of town, Allen whose numbers are worse should be on the next train.  ie, that you want Allen run out of town too, because his numbers are worse than a previous QB we moved on from.

 

That may not be your intended implication, I'm just trying to point out what's being interpreted that way.

 

When I was hired in industry, my boss used to quip that he couldn't give me a bad rating or fire me for 3 years because it would make him look dumb (he was a motivational gem, Heh).  Same applies to high draft picks in the NFL.  Ditching a high draft pick after 1 1/2 seasons, including a season in which he's acknowledged by Beane's off-season actions to have had inadequate offense around him, would make Beane and McDermott (and the Pegulas) look stupid. 

 

Not going down.

 

It won't happen this year.

 

But if Allen isn't significantly better next season, like in the top 15 in QB Rating at least, the Bills need to cut bait on the whole operation and start fresh. 

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I'll take this on.  "Taylor was run out of town for posting better numbers than Allen has"

 

This is incorrect on several fronts.  The primary front is that when Taylor joined the Bills, he was in his 5th year in the league who had been sitting in a pro QB room with some very good OC's and QB coaches.  He knew what the game was about; he knew how to prepare; he had every opportunity to learn how to read the D.  Even though he wasn't getting the starting reps, he knew the score and had the opportunity to "invest in himself" with VR systems and passing coaches. 

It was hoped that between his 1st and 2nd year as a starter, and his 2nd and 3rd year as a starter, he would take a step - learn to throw with anticipation, throw receivers open, step up into passing lanes, and make contested throws.  He did not.  In fact, he regressed from 217-202-187 ypg and in the 3rd year with Dennison, it was clear he was not going to develop into the pocket passer McDermott and Beane want.

 

Meanwhile, Allen is in his 2nd year as raw QB from a lower-tier program, who had bupkis for OL, WR, or rungame last year.  He has progressed (despite what some people say) in terms of his ability to hit the short/intermediate passing game, to move around in the pocket and make the throw, and to read the D and progress in his reads.  He is standing in and making throws where he would have bailed and run successfully last year.  This change shows in hard metrics such as significant increase in completion percentage, significant increase in YPG, and significant decrease in INT %, slight increase in YPA, and decrease in sack yardage lost and run yardage. 

 

Is Allen where he needs to be to be "The Man" for this franchise, Hell to the No.  But he's showing some progress.  If he ceases to show progress after his 3rd season, I have no doubt that the Bills will move on.

 

To recap: Tyrod was not "run out of town" for generating similar or better numbers to Allen.  The Bills moved on because after 3 years as a starter, it was clear he wasn't going to develop along the lines they wished.  If Allen is seen as plateauing short of what the Bills need as QB, he too will be gone.

 

But Allen will get a similar or greater amount of time as TT did to learn and develop because 1) Taylor had more time in the league before he got here, so should have started from a higher knowledge base 2) we invested a high 1st round pick in Allen, and those guys get more rope, it's just how it is.

 

And the Lieutenant has a point that when a guy can't seem to acknowledge anything good (and even our praise-chary HC can after a bad day), it does cast his overall judgement into some doubt.

 

Great take.

 

And this is so obvious when comparing Allen to Tyrod that the folks ignoring it are doing so because of a weird dislike of Allen.  Tyrod was given plenty of time to show us he wasn't the guy. 

 

I want Allen to succeed and at this time in his career I look for the positive when I watch him play.  He has improved greatly from his early starts last season.  Remember Green Bay, TN & LA?  If he continues to improve we have a keeper.  If he plateaus before getting much better we don't have a franchise guy and we'll have to start over.  But I happen to think he'll keep getting better and by the midway point of the season next year the negative Allen tirades will look ridiculous in hindsight. 

 

But if he doesn't get any better and ends being a Buffalo version of Bortles then it isn't personal  He would just be a guy that couldn't quite get to the next level.  With a lot of the posters critical of Allen on 2BD it just seems there is a personal animus towards the guy.  I just don't get it.

 

[Rock'em Sock'em]

This happens often even with the best quarterbacks.  You have one guy bearing down, two guys in your face.  You absolutely cannot take a sack here. Your first read is open enough with single coverage and the defender's back is turned. Pull the trigger on a back shoulder throw, catchable ball - especially for Brown who has good body control.

 

I suspect Allen's mind was made up pre-snap.  But a better pre-snap read may have put Beasley as the #1 read.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Case closed?

 

Depends upon what you think he meant by that. 

From his facial expression, it was pretty clear he was pointing out that Allen didn't have time to scan the field and see Beasley open.

 

Blitz, throw toward the Blitz, that's to the right, towards Brown.

4 hours ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

This happens often even with the best quarterbacks.  You have one guy bearing down, two guys in your face.  You absolutely cannot take a sack here. Your first read is open enough with single coverage and the defender's back is turned. Pull the trigger on a back shoulder throw, catchable ball - especially for Brown who has good body control.

 

I suspect Allen's mind was made up pre-snap.  But a better pre-snap read may have put Beasley as the #1 read.

 

 

In Cover0 that's what I understand to be the case.  You have a pre-set read and throw towards the blitz.

 

Beasley also had a charging defender between him and Allen (because Dawkins whiffed IIRC).  Someone else pointed out that Beasley was initially covered and it wasn't until he saw Allen look R that the defender dropped off

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Always throw INTO the blitz.  It was coming hard from the left.  I think Allen made up his mind he was going where it was 1 on 1 with Brown for a big play.  I don't mind that.....in any other situation.  And it isn't a wrong decision.

 

But the safe play was throw it to the blitz and hit---I think that's Knox---out of that bunch look.  

He chose a low percentage play.  Should have took the 7 yard hitch.  

 

No.  Here's a screen cap.  Count the bodies.  It's an overload blitz to the R.  It's cover0, sight adjustment, Brown was the hot read.

 

I know why you think that.  There was a charging defender free on the L side after the snap, but that wasn't a blitzer.  He just beat Dawkins like a drum.

Here.  But he's just one more body, you can see the overload breaking through on the R

 

I see two other things with that play watching in slomo but I won't even go there

[Big Blitz]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No.  Here's a screen cap.  Count the bodies.  It's an overload blitz to the R.  It's cover0, sight adjustment, Brown was the hot read.

 

I know why you think that.  There was a charging defender free on the L side after the snap, but that wasn't a blitzer.  He just beat Dawkins like a drum.

Here.  But he's just one more body, you can see the overload breaking through on the R

 

I see two other things with that play watching in slomo but I won't even go there

 

 

The corner up top to the left is blitzing.  They have 2 safeties high.  The Mike bails to cover the hook curl (Beasley) and Brown is one on one.  Yes there is a blitz from the right but their D line has shifted down to the right a full gap to get that corner free.  

 

The pre snap read was correct I even think Singletary goes to the correct side.  Great design by the D bc there is no one able to block the corner to the left.  The LT can't get that.  

 

My read would have been into the bunch coverage and get 7 maybe more yards bc those safeties stay deep.  There is no one there.  It was the SAFE call but Josh went big.  Brown admitted he made a bad read on the throw.  It was back shoulder.  But too high risk for my liking in that situation that's why I liked going into the blitz to the left but.  It was the higher percentage throw and play.  

 

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Big Blitz