One important question I have on the last drive

[Z-Mann]

15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Jeeze. 

 

Being critical of a QB who is near the bottom of the league in every passing category means I want to run them out of town?

 

I just want someone who can lead an offense and score points. So far Allen hasn't shown he can do that, and we should be looking for someone who can. 

 

Don't take offense to those comments - happens every year, where there is criticism towards the QB (rightfully so more times than not), and people come to defend.  I feel like it's few and far between, those fans that WANT Allen to play poorly, but why can't we be critical of him again?  he is playing POORLY overall.  QBR?  Down towards the very bottom of the league.  QB Rating?  Guy like Trubisky, Kyle Allen, Minshew, Rudolph, and Mariota are all better.  DVOA?  Again, one of the worst starting QB's in the league.

 

This is Allen's second season, coaching has stayed consistent, defense looks "ok", better weapons than last year, played a bunch of lousy teams...and overall he still looks like the exact same QB, being better on shorter throws and worse on longer ones.  I do not understand why we can't be critical of that kind of overall performance...

[oldmanfan]

38 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Cool; I just wanted to get you on record that you DISLIKE him (polite way of saying hate), and that you want him run out of town.  You have been marked; no coming back.

Realize the guy you're responding to would have traded an entire draft for Jameis Winston.  That should give you some insight into his ability to rate Qb play.

[starrymessenger]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Hard to know what read Beas is on that play, and Allen definitely doesn’t have time to cycle through them right there. It could definitely be on Allen, but hard to say one way or another without context. While in the first half of the season, Beasley was the first read on a lot of passes, it doesn’t seem like that’s happening anymore... that’s a huge question mark for me.

 

 

 

The back shoulder come back to brown has been amazing this year. The problem, according to Smokey during his postgame presser, is that he didn’t get where he needed to be. 

 

And I saw Brown do it (back shoulder grabs) on several occasions for big/and or scoring plays with Flacco in Baltimore. Don't know what he's talking about. Or maybe he doesn't.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Realize the guy you're responding to would have traded an entire draft for Jameis Winston.  That should give you some insight into his ability to rate Qb play.

 

Thanks for the insight.  lol

 

[Z-Mann]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I'll take this on.  "Taylor was run out of town for posting better numbers than Allen has"

 

This is incorrect on several fronts.  The primary front is that when Taylor joined the Bills, he was in his 5th year in the league who had been sitting in a pro QB room with some very good OC's and QB coaches.  He knew what the game was about; he knew how to prepare; he had every opportunity to learn how to read the D.  Even though he wasn't getting the starting reps, he knew the score and had the opportunity to "invest in himself" with VR systems and passing coaches. 

It was hoped that between his 1st and 2nd year as a starter, and his 2nd and 3rd year as a starter, he would take a step - learn to throw with anticipation, throw receivers open, step up into passing lanes, and make contested throws.  He did not.  In fact, he regressed from 217-202-187 ypg and in the 3rd year with Dennison, it was clear he was not going to develop into the pocket passer McDermott and Beane want.

 

Meanwhile, Allen is in his 2nd year as raw QB from a lower-tier program, who had bupkis for OL, WR, or rungame last year.  He has progressed (despite what some people say) in terms of his ability to hit the short/intermediate passing game, to move around in the pocket and make the throw, and to read the D and progress in his reads.  He is standing in and making throws where he would have bailed and run successfully last year.  This change shows in hard metrics such as significant increase in completion percentage, significant increase in YPG, and significant decrease in INT %, slight increase in YPA, and decrease in sack yardage lost and run yardage. 

 

Is Allen where he needs to be to be "The Man" for this franchise, Hell to the No.  But he's showing some progress.  If he ceases to show progress after his 3rd season, I have no doubt that the Bills will move on.

 

To recap: Tyrod was not "run out of town" for generating similar or better numbers to Allen.  The Bills moved on because after 3 years as a starter, it was clear he wasn't going to develop along the lines they wished.  If Allen is seen as plateauing short of what the Bills need as QB, he too will be gone.

 

But Allen will get a similar or greater amount of time as TT did to learn and develop because 1) Taylor had more time in the league before he got here, so should have started from a higher knowledge base 2) we invested a high 1st round pick in Allen, and those guys get more rope, it's just how it is.

 

And the Lieutenant has a point that when a guy can't seem to acknowledge anything good (and even our praise-chary HC can after a bad day), it does cast his overall judgement into some doubt.

 

You are not wrong - he's better this year than last in QB rating and DVOA, worse in QBR, so yes he does seem to be "better".  The problem is, he's still one of the worst starting QB's in the league using those measurements, and guys who are in their first year and/or we passed up on for Allen, are already playing BETTER than him in those same statistical categories.  And the Bills schedule has been easy so far, one of the easiest in the league.  

 

My only point...no one really knows what's going to happen, but at this point in time I feel like there is more evidence saying that Allen is NOT the guy than there is evidence showing that he IS the guy.  And I feel like it should be reversed by now....

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

11 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

Don't take offense to those comments - happens every year, where there is criticism towards the QB (rightfully so more times than not), and people come to defend.  I feel like it's few and far between, those fans that WANT Allen to play poorly, but why can't we be critical of him again?  he is playing POORLY overall.  QBR?  Down towards the very bottom of the league.  QB Rating?  Guy like Trubisky, Kyle Allen, Minshew, Rudolph, and Mariota are all better.  DVOA?  Again, one of the worst starting QB's in the league.

 

This is Allen's second season, coaching has stayed consistent, defense looks "ok", better weapons than last year, played a bunch of lousy teams...and overall he still looks like the exact same QB, being better on shorter throws and worse on longer ones.  I do not understand why we can't be critical of that kind of overall performance...

 

Big difference between being critical and providing constructive criticism, to being biased because you have an honest dislike for someone.  Where you do fall?  Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?  

[Z-Mann]

1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Big difference between being critical and providing constructive criticism, to being biased because you have an honest dislike for someone.  Where you do fall?  Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?  

"Our critics are our friends, for they do show us our faults".  

 

I fall on whatever the data and evidence tells me to.  And right now it's telling me that he's one of the worst starting QB's in the league.  I do not know all the intricacies that go into coaching, but he clearly has more weaknesses than strengths at this point in his career.  I do not think it's too much to ask for him to be an "average" QB by now...

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

"Our critics are our friends, for they do show us our faults".  

 

I fall on whatever the data and evidence tells me to.  And right now it's telling me that he's one of the worst starting QB's in the league.  I do not know all the intricacies that go into coaching, but he clearly has more weaknesses than strengths at this point in his career.  I do not think it's too much to ask for him to be an "average" QB by now...

 

Way to dodge the question; I will ask it again.  Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?   I suppose the ball just miraculously marched itself down the field for the go-ahead score, or miraculously got the Bills in position for a game tying FG.  You can't even give props for that.  

Edited November 11, 2019 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[whatdrought]

18 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

And I saw Brown do it (back shoulder grabs) on several occasions for big/and or scoring plays with Flacco in Baltimore. Don't know what he's talking about. Or maybe he doesn't.

 

Well he’s not wrong that it looked like Allen threw Brown a jumper, which would be a terrible call in that situation. But what Brown said really changes that play- the ball was righ where it was supposed to if Brown was able to come back for it. 

[Z-Mann]

12 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Way to dodge the question; I will ask it again.  Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?  

 

When there is something positive, it should be pointed out.  I have no problem doing that.  When there is something negative, it should also be pointed out.  Right now, for every one positive there are about three negatives, and that turns into, "why do you only criticize".

 

He has improved his short game and has improved his DVOA and passer rating from last year.  That's great.

 

He still has a massive fumbling problem, can't hit a long throw, still has issues reading a defense, his QBR has gotten worse, his completion % has dropped below 60%, has passed for only TWO more TD's than Mitchell "frickin" Tubisky, his coaches clearly do not fully trust him...

 

There's a lot more bad than good going on.  We have every right to be critical of him AND the rest of the team right now.  This year he IS Andy Dalton as a passer.  We traded UP in the first round and found our game manager.  Are you ok with that?

 

KYLER MURRAY has a higher passer rating, thrown for more TD's, less INT's, higher completion %...and I don't want to hear that Arizona has all this great talent along the O-line and WR's.  There is a lot of concern on this board, as there should be.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Z-Mann

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

You are not wrong - he's better this year than last in QB rating and DVOA, worse in QBR, so yes he does seem to be "better".  The problem is, he's still one of the worst starting QB's in the league using those measurements, and guys who are in their first year and/or we passed up on for Allen, are already playing BETTER than him in those same statistical categories.  And the Bills schedule has been easy so far, one of the easiest in the league.  

 

My only point...no one really knows what's going to happen, but at this point in time I feel like there is more evidence saying that Allen is NOT the guy than there is evidence showing that he IS the guy.  And I feel like it should be reversed by now....

 

The above is a fair take.   A counter-point is that Allen had very little supporting cast last year, and a wholly new cast playing in a stated-complex offense this year.  By "guys we passed up on for Allen" I assume you mean Watson and Mahomes; that ship has sailed, and we weren't on it.  So the fair question is who in their first or 2nd year is playing better, and then why?  Do they have better supporting cast?  Play calling that protects them/minimizes what they're asked to do? 

 

Lamar Jackson is clearly playing lights-out, but he's also in a system that we refuse to consider - a system tailored to his strengths as a dual-threat QB.  For better or worse, we are insistent that Allen will sink or swim as a pocket passer.

 

The "Taylor was run out of town for worst numbers" is not, for the reasons cited.  It is worth pointing out again that various "secret sauce" metrics like FO's DVOA, ESPN's total QBR, and whatever it is that PFF uses have been questioned for how well their results reflect actual QB play.  I take them with a grain of salt when they're good (as when they ranked Taylor #9 or #10 overall in a year where the offense was overall mediocre in production) or when they're bad.

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

This isnt right, they did recognize the blitz which is why it was pre-determined that the play was going to Brown on the first read no matter what. The problem is that the hot route was a back-shoulder go route.

 

Identifying the blitz and optioning to Brown was the right call against Cover-0. Given the situation though, not the right route to option to IMO.

 

Also correct read because that’s where the extra blitzers came from.

 

Dawkins irony is they didn’t need to blitz because Dawkins got embarrassed... most of the day. 

 

I agree that it made no snse not to at least chip him with Knox. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

KYLER MURRAY has a higher passer rating, thrown for more TD's, less INT's, higher completion %...and I don't want to hear that Arizona has all this great talent along the O-line and WR's.  There is a lot of concern on this board, as there should be.

 

There should be a lot of concern on the board, but again - Kyler Murray is playing in a system that is tailored to what he did in college, by what I understand is his college coach as HC.  That is similar to what is being done with Lamar Jackson.  Time will tell if that's a successful long-term strategy in the NFL. 

 

Meanwhile, for better or worse, the Bills coaches are determined to develop Allen as a pocket passer with wheels.   He's not there yet, and we don't know if he'll get there, but comparing him statistically to Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray doesn't really provide useful insight on that.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, Z-Mann said:

 

When there is something positive, it should be pointed out.  I have no problem doing that.  When there is something negative, it should also be pointed out.  Right now, for every one positive there are about three negatives, and that turns into, "why do you only criticize".

 

He has improved his short game and has improved his DVOA and passer rating from last year.  That's great.

 

He still has a massive fumbling problem, can't hit a long throw, still has issues reading a defense, his QBR has gotten worse, his completion % has dropped below 60%, has passed for only TWO more TD's than Mitchell "frickin" Tubisky, his coaches clearly do not fully trust him...

 

There's a lot more bad than good going on.  We have every right to be critical of him AND the rest of the team right now.  This year he IS Andy Dalton as a passer.  Are you ok with that?

 

He's in his second year and if he is playing at the level of Andy Dalton who had AJ Green, Mohammed Sanu, and all the other talent around him; I will take it at this point.  We have John Brown and Cole Beasley that are consistent; that's it (maybe Knox on occasion).  Allen is certainly ripe for criticism, and he is his biggest critic, but look at the talent around him right now.  Last year, Foster was the go-to guy and he had is first catch yesterday.  We have Singletary, but what can you do when OC abandons the RB.   I'll be sure to look out for your positive posts and give you a thumbs up when you do; and I will do the same if your criticism is fair and not jaded.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Jeeze. 

 

Being critical of a QB who is near the bottom of the league in every passing category means I want to run them out of town?

 

I just want someone who can lead an offense and score points. So far Allen hasn't shown he can do that, and we should be looking for someone who can. 

 

With all respect, @jrober38, when you say something like

" Tyrod Taylor was run out of town for posting better numbers than Allen has. If he wasn't good enough (he wasn't), why are people trying to tell me Allen is? "

 

I think the implication is, you feel if TT was run out of town, Allen whose numbers are worse should be on the next train.  ie, that you want Allen run out of town too, because his numbers are worse than a previous QB we moved on from.

 

That may not be your intended implication, I'm just trying to point out what's being interpreted that way.

 

When I was hired in industry, my boss used to quip that he couldn't give me a bad rating or fire me for 3 years because it would make him look dumb (he was a motivational gem, Heh).  Same applies to high draft picks in the NFL.  Ditching a high draft pick after 1 1/2 seasons, including a season in which he's acknowledged by Beane's off-season actions to have had inadequate offense around him, would make Beane and McDermott (and the Pegulas) look stupid. 

 

Not going down.

[Z-Mann]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The above is a fair take.   A counter-point is that Allen had very little supporting cast last year, and a wholly new cast playing in a stated-complex offense this year.  By "guys we passed up on for Allen" I assume you mean Watson and Mahomes; that ship has sailed, and we weren't on it.  So the fair question is who in their first or 2nd year is playing better, and then why?  Do they have better supporting cast?  Play calling that protects them/minimizes what they're asked to do? 

 

Lamar Jackson is clearly playing lights-out, but he's also in a system that we refuse to consider - a system tailored to his strengths as a dual-threat QB.  For better or worse, we are insistent that Allen will sink or swim as a pocket passer.

 

The "Taylor was run out of town for worst numbers" is not, for the reasons cited.  It is worth pointing out again that various "secret sauce" metrics like FO's DVOA, ESPN's total QBR, and whatever it is that PFF uses have been questioned for how well their results reflect actual QB play.  I take them with a grain of salt when they're good (as when they ranked Taylor #9 or #10 overall in a year where the offense was overall mediocre in production) or when they're bad.

 

 

 

My expectations are maybe just higher than some on this board (not you).  It could be argued that Trubisky is about the same as Allen this year.  He's not a first or second year guy, I understand, but it's becoming accepted that the Bears QA absolutely stinks.  Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones,. Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph (same draft as Allen) are all putting up better advanced metrics than Allen...and I expected MORE from Allen, not to be on par or worse than a bunch of first year starting QB's.  And none of those teams - except maybe the Steelers - strike me as having significantly better talent or coaching than the Bills do.

 

What we have in abundance is "hope".  I/we HOPE that he will develop into something of a top 5-10 QB, but there is still little evidence that we can point to that says that this could be the case.  I expected him to be an "average" QB this year...and he's far from it....

[BuffaloRebound]

It’s just frustrating to see the success that Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson are having.  3 guys we passed on while the Bills continue to struggle on offense and Allen looks like he’s more likely to bust than pan out.  

[Z-Mann]

7 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

He's in his second year and if he is playing at the level of Andy Dalton who had AJ Green, Mohammed Sanu, and all the other talent around him; I will take it at this point.  We have John Brown and Cole Beasley that are consistent; that's it (maybe Knox on occasion).  Allen is certainly ripe for criticism, and he is his biggest critic, but look at the talent around him right now.  Last year, Foster was the go-to guy and he had is first catch yesterday.  We have Singletary, but what can you do when OC abandons the RB.   I'll be sure to look out for your positive posts and give you a thumbs up when you do; and I will do the same if your criticism is fair and not jaded.

 

Sorry, it's really difficult to be that guy who wants to compliment their co-worker on the nice tie they are wearing, all while they are late to work, missing deadlines, and makes mistakes in their numbers.  I'll try, just for you though

[london_bills]

4 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

My expectations are maybe just higher than some on this board (not you).  It could be argued that Trubisky is about the same as Allen this year.  He's not a first or second year guy, I understand, but it's becoming accepted that the Bears QA absolutely stinks.  Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones,. Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph (same draft as Allen) are all putting up better advanced metrics than Allen...and I expected MORE from Allen, not to be on par or worse than a bunch of first year starting QB's.  And none of those teams - except maybe the Steelers - strike me as having significantly better talent or coaching than the Bills do.

 

What we have in abundance is "hope".  I/we HOPE that he will develop into something of a top 5-10 QB, but there is still little evidence that we can point to that says that this could be the case.  I expected him to be an "average" QB this year...and he's far from it....

No guarantee this guy develops. I want more

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

Think he made up his mind pre snap where the football was going  I dont like it but if he holds the ball he gets crushed  Dawkins was terrible and Daboll not bright enough to give him help with a chip block  Its a lower % play and we seem to be running way too many of those in critical third downs

Last year that is how we were playing Allen.  He was told to do X, pre-snap, and that was the end of it.

 

I don't know how much they are still doing of that this year, but I assume they are doing at least some of it.  It's a way of dealing with his deficiencies and trying to remove decision making from the process.

 

Obviously, it is a lot better not to have to play that way.