BarleyNY Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 53 minutes ago, starrymessenger said: I don't think making greater use of Singletary means you've given up on Josh. A good back is a young QBs best friend. I don't think that at 5'7" and 200 lbs there is any risk of shortening his career if he gets 20+ touches per in the Brown's game. He was the centrepiece, or motor, of his offence in college. Helping to carry an offence is what he does. So far I've seen nothing that suggests he is unable to transition in this role as a pro. Let one of the leagues worst run Ds prove that they can shut him down before you abandon the run entirely. Brown's didn't do that (they didn't have to). More likely the Patriots could. Browns are not the Pats. Situational awareness. Browns are below average against both the pass and run. DVOA for passing defense ranks them 19th and their DVOA for rushing defense ranks them 22nd. Hardly a big difference. They were also stacking the box against the run. It’s good to know the real situation. I’d love my main point addressed. Why are people advocating running Singletary into a stacked box as the solution while leaving unaddressed Allen’s issues throwing against man coverage or man with a single high safety? Why is the former the issue and not the latter?
Boatdrinks Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Browns are below average against both the pass and run. DVOA for passing defense ranks them 19th and their DVOA for rushing defense ranks them 22nd. Hardly a big difference. They were also stacking the box against the run. It’s good to know the real situation. I’d love my main point addressed. Why are people advocating running Singletary into a stacked box as the solution while leaving unaddressed Allen’s issues throwing against man coverage or man with a single high safety? Why is the former the issue and not the latter? So as the Bills OC, how would you scheme plays to minimize those issues while Allen develops ?
reddogblitz Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 Since Clowns stacked the box and rendered our best RB out of the game and make Josh beat them with the pass (good luck) I suspect the Fish to do the same and the Broncos the following week and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Nihilarian Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, ngbills said: Please please please. Stop with the you cant run when the defense stacks the box. That is such a horrible excuse. SO many ways to attack this. Its ridiculous. Lucky for Adrian Peterson nobody thought of stacking the box or he would never even sniffed a 2K yard season. You can run it at them at anyway. You can use formations that remove guys from the box. You can use motion. You can add more blockers to the box. You can design runs away from the extra defender. You can call the correct pass plays. On and on and on. What my earlier post pointed out was that Singletary was getting 7.0 yards per carry on his three rushes in the first half! So if the Browns were stacking the box it wasn't effective against "Motor"! 19 passes vs 7 rushes in that first half. This against the #2 sack leader in the NFL with the Browns being #7 defense in passing yards allowed. Brian Daboll ran his offense "his way" without any consideration to what he was facing. So who is the failure in this game? The 2nd year QB with 19 games under his belt or the 6 year OC who is acting like a rookie who doesn't know how to set up an offense against a specific opponent. Its really kinda sad that first year HC who is one year removed from the Browns RB coach out foxed Brian Deboll. The 2-6 Browns beat the 6-2 Buffalo Bills because a moron is running the Bills offense. Its like Nathaniel Hackett never left! 1
BarleyNY Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: So as the Bills OC, how would you scheme plays to minimize those issues while Allen develops ? If I’m the Bills OC I’m begging the FO to get me a competent starting NFL QB next season. I’m not sure that Barkley can be any better than Allen, but I give him a shot if I do. If not, then I am calling a more conservative passing game, I’m running RPOs and hoping Allen can hang onto the ball and I’m running more even if it’s into stacked boxes. But that’s because I would’ve given up on Allen as a passer and as our QB beyond the very near term. But if you haven’t given up on him and you think he can be the guy for the Bills, then you have to let him take his lumps and try to work out how to be an NFL QB. That’s what the team is doing. As much as I don’t believe in Allen I understand that they haven’t given up on him and, therefore, that is what they’re doing. Allen hasn’t come around (yet?) and the team is tailing off from their encouraging start. That’s getting fans upset and a bunch of them are looking to blame everyone but they guy whose fault it is. But maybe, just maybe, he does come around and maybe there isn’t really a lot to lose by finding out. Let’s face it - if Allen doesn’t get more accurate and if he can’t beat man coverage, then he’s never going to be a starting caliber NFL QB. (This isn’t the toughest thing a QB will have to do.) If the Bills want to see if he can be “the guy” then they need to give him the chance like in Cleveland. If and when they’re done with him, then they can take the ball out of his hand and try to find a way to get through the season. 1
Boatdrinks Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: If I’m the Bills OC I’m begging the FO to get me a competent starting NFL QB next season. I’m not sure that Barkley can be any better than Allen, but I give him a shot if I do. If not, then I am calling a more conservative passing game, I’m running RPOs and hoping Allen can hang onto the ball and I’m running more even if it’s into stacked boxes. But that’s because I would’ve given up on Allen as a passer and as our QB beyond the very near term. But if you haven’t given up on him and you think he can be the guy for the Bills, then you have to let him take his lumps and try to work out how to be an NFL QB. That’s what the team is doing. As much as I don’t believe in Allen I understand that they haven’t given up on him and, therefore, that is what they’re doing. Allen hasn’t come around (yet?) and the team is tailing off from their encouraging start. That’s getting fans upset and a bunch of them are looking to blame everyone but they guy whose fault it is. But maybe, just maybe, he does come around and maybe there isn’t really a lot to lose by finding out. Let’s face it - if Allen doesn’t get more accurate and if he can’t beat man coverage, then he’s never going to be a starting caliber NFL QB. (This isn’t the toughest thing a QB will have to do.) If the Bills want to see if he can be “the guy” then they need to give him the chance like in Cleveland. If and when they’re done with him, then they can take the ball out of his hand and try to find a way to get through the season. So you would just draft a QB in the first round every year, give them each about 20 games before moving on to the next guy. Hopefully, you’d get a winning lottery ticket that can do it all out of the gate before being fired. It hasn’t happened yet with Allen and maybe never will, but I’d guess they stick with him until the end of 2020 season. After that, probably big changes again and maybe Beane gets one more shot to find QB gold or it’s a new GM.
Nihilarian Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 Should the Bills OC continue to go pass happy when the Bills are down by any amount of points as he did most of last season and against the Browns this past Sunday. I have my doubts that the 2019 Bills will win another game. Anything less then the playoffs at this point (6-3) this OC needs to go! Should the Bills lose the next two I hope they fire Daboll and promote Ken Dorsey before Dallas. Against Washington, 39 rushes 20 passes, WIN! Against Cleveland, 20 rushes, 41 passes, LOSS! Browns HC Freddie Kitchens realized that if the Browns got the lead it would cause Daboll to go pass happy into the teeth of his defense...and Daboll did exactly that. I think the overall consensus from Bills fans is that the Bills should run more and pass less!
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 3 hours ago, starrymessenger said: They don't call him motor for nothin. ...so we have a potential "8 Cylinder Star" lead by a "Two Stroke Briggs & Stratton OC"....we should go REAL far..............
Meatloaf63 Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ngbills said: Please please please. Stop with the you cant run when the defense stacks the box. That is such a horrible excuse. SO many ways to attack this. Its ridiculous. Lucky for Adrian Peterson nobody thought of stacking the box or he would never even sniffed a 2K yard season. You can run it at them at anyway. You can use formations that remove guys from the box. You can use motion. You can add more blockers to the box. You can design runs away from the extra defender. You can call the correct pass plays. On and on and on. This would mean you would actually have to be able to make in game adjustments, have a plan to use your players to their best abilities, you know play to their strengths, think you might be asking for a little to much here.
ndirish1978 Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 I'm over Daboll. He's clearly screwed us several times. 2
ngbills Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, reddogblitz said: Since Clowns stacked the box and rendered our best RB out of the game and make Josh beat them with the pass (good luck) I suspect the Fish to do the same and the Broncos the following week and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. And every team in the league against any team with a QB worse than Allen. Now what does that say? Either Allen is awful or every team should be able to shut down nearly every other team in the league. No. Allen is not playing great but also not the worst QB in the league. However our OC is awful and has no idea how to adjust or use his players skillsets. 1
Teddy KGB Posted November 12, 2019 Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BarleyNY said: If I’m the Bills OC I’m begging the FO to get me a competent starting NFL QB next season.
starrymessenger Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 1 hour ago, BarleyNY said: Browns are below average against both the pass and run. DVOA for passing defense ranks them 19th and their DVOA for rushing defense ranks them 22nd. Hardly a big difference. They were also stacking the box against the run. It’s good to know the real situation. I’d love my main point addressed. Why are people advocating running Singletary into a stacked box as the solution while leaving unaddressed Allen’s issues throwing against man coverage or man with a single high safety? Why is the former the issue and not the latter? The fact that Cleveland's pass D can be vulnerable (given the injuries in their secondary) doesn't alter the fact that all other things being equal opposing teams have chosen primarily to exploit their run D. There is a reason for this. They are ranked 7th in pass D and 27th against the run. And to assume that there is no alternative but to pass against a stacked box is of course incorrect. If eight in the box was enuf to undo a run heavy offence Roman would be out of a job and Lamar would be selling insurance. Bill B stacked the box against the Ravens. He even went to a nine man front on occasion. Lamar ran for about 70 yards. Ingram ran for a buck and a half. And stacking the box exposes the D to big plays in the run game if the ball carrier gets to the second level. Typically there is only one safety left upfield. We see Lamar exploit this occasionally on long runs. Without getting into detail suffice it to say that are a number of strategies and techniques available to run heavy teams to beat a loaded front. So although stacking the box also gives an offence the possibility of using eg play action and other strategies in the passing game it does not in every case require it, and especially not exclusively. So running a back like Singletary into a stacked box can be a solution, or at least a partial solution. But I suspect you know this and in any case that's not your point. Your point is that because the Bills tried to pass and Josh didn't do to the Browns what Garropolo or Rodgers with their supporting cast would have done we need to move on from him. Well Josh played reasonably well. He made some truly big boy throws. He made some pre-snap misreads as well no doubt. He remains a talented prospect who has shown some progression in areas of his game that needed to improve. Sam Darnold was publicly humiliated by Bill B. He was completely mystified by the Pats blitz packages. Belichick would never have employed this strategy against say Rodgers or Brees. Should the Jets move on from Darnold? 1
BarleyNY Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 16 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: So you would just draft a QB in the first round every year, give them each about 20 games before moving on to the next guy. Hopefully, you’d get a winning lottery ticket that can do it all out of the gate before being fired. It hasn’t happened yet with Allen and maybe never will, but I’d guess they stick with him until the end of 2020 season. After that, probably big changes again and maybe Beane gets one more shot to find QB gold or it’s a new GM. Don’t put words in my mouth. It really depends on the QB and the situation. It is fair to say that if, after two full seasons in the NFL and 20+ starts, a QB can’t effectively do rudimentary parts of his job and sits comfortably among back ups in his overall performance, I would look to replace him as starter. Do you disagree? That would hold true for any starter by the way. It’s better to move on from mistakes sooner rather than later. If Allen doesn’t improve this year, do you really think the light will go on in this offseason? Do you want to bet 2020 on that possibility? I sure don’t.
colin Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 16 hours ago, starrymessenger said: The fact that Cleveland's pass D can be vulnerable (given the injuries in their secondary) doesn't alter the fact that all other things being equal opposing teams have chosen primarily to exploit their run D. There is a reason for this. They are ranked 7th in pass D and 27th against the run. And to assume that there is no alternative but to pass against a stacked box is of course incorrect. If eight in the box was enuf to undo a run heavy offence Roman would be out of a job and Lamar would be selling insurance. Bill B stacked the box against the Ravens. He even went to a nine man front on occasion. Lamar ran for about 70 yards. Ingram ran for a buck and a half. And stacking the box exposes the D to big plays in the run game if the ball carrier gets to the second level. Typically there is only one safety left upfield. We see Lamar exploit this occasionally on long runs. Without getting into detail suffice it to say that are a number of strategies and techniques available to run heavy teams to beat a loaded front. So although stacking the box also gives an offence the possibility of using eg play action and other strategies in the passing game it does not in every case require it, and especially not exclusively. So running a back like Singletary into a stacked box can be a solution, or at least a partial solution. But I suspect you know this and in any case that's not your point. Your point is that because the Bills tried to pass and Josh didn't do to the Browns what Garropolo or Rodgers with their supporting cast would have done we need to move on from him. Well Josh played reasonably well. He made some truly big boy throws. He made some pre-snap misreads as well no doubt. He remains a talented prospect who has shown some progression in areas of his game that needed to improve. Sam Darnold was publicly humiliated by Bill B. He was completely mystified by the Pats blitz packages. Belichick would never have employed this strategy against say Rodgers or Brees. Should the Jets move on from Darnold? looool. they put 8 in the box, we have to throw deep timing routes to beasley vs an over load blitz, IT'S WHAT ANALYTICS TELLS US TO DO! some of the ***** around these dorky takes are just insane.
Boatdrinks Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Don’t put words in my mouth. It really depends on the QB and the situation. It is fair to say that if, after two full seasons in the NFL and 20+ starts, a QB can’t effectively do rudimentary parts of his job and sits comfortably among back ups in his overall performance, I would look to replace him as starter. Do you disagree? That would hold true for any starter by the way. It’s better to move on from mistakes sooner rather than later. If Allen doesn’t improve this year, do you really think the light will go on in this offseason? Do you want to bet 2020 on that possibility? I sure don’t. I think he can continue to improve, but it depends on the overall picture at season’s end. If I had to conjure a guess, the Bills ( and most NFL teams) wouldn’t move on until after year 3 for a high draft pick QB. Barring a major decline, he’s here for 2020 season. Short of signing a proven NFL QB, they will go with that possibility over a rookie .They have a lot of cap room and another draft to add to the currently incomplete offense. A top WR, OT and possibly even TE should be added. If Allen flounders with a solid group of weapons around him, they will move on. I could be wrong of course. They could draft a QB in the next draft or even sign a FA. Just my best guess about what they will do.
BarleyNY Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 16 hours ago, starrymessenger said: The fact that Cleveland's pass D can be vulnerable (given the injuries in their secondary) doesn't alter the fact that all other things being equal opposing teams have chosen primarily to exploit their run D. There is a reason for this. They are ranked 7th in pass D and 27th against the run. And to assume that there is no alternative but to pass against a stacked box is of course incorrect. If eight in the box was enuf to undo a run heavy offence Roman would be out of a job and Lamar would be selling insurance. Bill B stacked the box against the Ravens. He even went to a nine man front on occasion. Lamar ran for about 70 yards. Ingram ran for a buck and a half. And stacking the box exposes the D to big plays in the run game if the ball carrier gets to the second level. Typically there is only one safety left upfield. We see Lamar exploit this occasionally on long runs. Without getting into detail suffice it to say that are a number of strategies and techniques available to run heavy teams to beat a loaded front. So although stacking the box also gives an offence the possibility of using eg play action and other strategies in the passing game it does not in every case require it, and especially not exclusively. So running a back like Singletary into a stacked box can be a solution, or at least a partial solution. But I suspect you know this and in any case that's not your point. Your point is that because the Bills tried to pass and Josh didn't do to the Browns what Garropolo or Rodgers with their supporting cast would have done we need to move on from him. Well Josh played reasonably well. He made some truly big boy throws. He made some pre-snap misreads as well no doubt. He remains a talented prospect who has shown some progression in areas of his game that needed to improve. Sam Darnold was publicly humiliated by Bill B. He was completely mystified by the Pats blitz packages. Belichick would never have employed this strategy against say Rodgers or Brees. Should the Jets move on from Darnold? Just going to hit some points here: - DVOA is a much better gauge of performance than yards or points for offense and defense. You seem knowledgeable enough to know this but have chosen to pretend otherwise to try to make your point. - Whether or not it would’ve been a viable strategy to run Singletary a lot more against Cleveland’s stacked box is pretty irrelevant to the main point here. We can debate whether that would’ve worked all day, but thats not the issue. - The real issue is that doing so should not have been necessary. It’s that Allen could not beat simple, undisguised man coverage. This wasn’t Allen getting beaten by Belichick, it was him being beaten by a bad DC running a basic scheme that he’s seen since high school. And if it had been some bad reads here and there against a tougher scheme I wouldn’t have an issue. But he just couldn’t make the throws. I don’t see how that improves and I don’t want to waste another season watching it happen again. - Lastly, people keep saying he’s improving. I see a few areas where he has, but overall he is still poor and it’s about exactly as poor as last season. I’d guess that a big reason for that is that teams have learned how to play him. Let’s take a look. His Total QBR has dropped from 52.0 in ‘18 to 36.0 this season. His Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) went up from -35.9% to -23.0%. That’s still terrible for a starting QB. There have been 41 QBs this season that have performed better according to that statistic. So if he really is improving overall, it’s not by nearly enough. If he doesn’t make a big jump during the rest of this season I think the Bills should look for an upgrade. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019 3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: I think he can continue to improve, but it depends on the overall picture at season’s end. If I had to conjure a guess, the Bills ( and most NFL teams) wouldn’t move on until after year 3 for a high draft pick QB. Barring a major decline, he’s here for 2020 season. Short of signing a proven NFL QB, they will go with that possibility over a rookie .They have a lot of cap room and another draft to add to the currently incomplete offense. A top WR, OT and possibly even TE should be added. If Allen flounders with a solid group of weapons around him, they will move on. I could be wrong of course. They could draft a QB in the next draft or even sign a FA. Just my best guess about what they will do. I think that was true in the past, but that the rookie salary cap has made it easier to move on from high picks. Still, you might be right.
Boatdrinks Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Just going to hit some points here: - DVOA is a much better gauge of performance than yards or points for offense and defense. You seem knowledgeable enough to know this but have chosen to pretend otherwise to try to make your point. - Whether or not it would’ve been a viable strategy to run Singletary a lot more against Cleveland’s stacked box is pretty irrelevant to the main point here. We can debate whether that would’ve worked all day, but thats not the issue. - The real issue is that doing so should not have been necessary. It’s that Allen could not beat simple, undisguised man coverage. This wasn’t Allen getting beaten by Belichick, it was him being beaten by a bad DC running a basic scheme that he’s seen since high school. And if it had been some bad reads here and there against a tougher scheme I wouldn’t have an issue. But he just couldn’t make the throws. I don’t see how that improves and I don’t want to waste another season watching it happen again. - Lastly, people keep saying he’s improving. I see a few areas where he has, but overall he is still poor and it’s about exactly as poor as last season. I’d guess that a big reason for that is that teams have learned how to play him. Let’s take a look. His Total QBR has dropped from 52.0 in ‘18 to 36.0 this season. His Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) went up from -35.9% to -23.0%. That’s still terrible for a starting QB. There have been 41 QBs this season that have performed better according to that statistic. So if he really is improving overall, it’s not by nearly enough. If he doesn’t make a big jump during the rest of this season I think the Bills should look for an upgrade. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019 I think that was true in the past, but that the rookie salary cap has made it easier to move on from high picks. Still, you might be right. It’s easier, but that’s only part of the equation. Bills do have tons of cap room. Allen haters are convinced that he’s not the guy, but I’m not certain the Bills ( or any NFL team for that matter) would cut bait so quickly. I think he probably gets a third year.
BarleyNY Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: It’s easier, but that’s only part of the equation. Bills do have tons of cap room. Allen haters are convinced that he’s not the guy, but I’m not certain the Bills ( or any NFL team for that matter) would cut bait so quickly. I think he probably gets a third year. If you call me a hater, then I get to call you a fanboi. Thems the rules. I guess we will find out, but Rosen, Lynch and Manziel tell me it’s a real possibility.
Boatdrinks Posted November 13, 2019 Posted November 13, 2019 Just now, BarleyNY said: If you call me a hater, then I get to call you a fanboi. Thems the rules. I guess we will find out, but Rosen, Lynch and Manziel tell me it’s a real possibility. Where did I call you a hater? I’m far from a fanboy. Just guessing what the team might realistically do. Of course it’s a possibility ;there are still 7 regular season games left. Those QBs you mentioned performed far worse than Allen. I would have moved on too.
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