Simple poll. Is Josh Allen improving as a passer?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

This shows a lack of reading comprehension, or might possibly the sign of a brain tumor. Read the question. There is only one correct answer, whether you like it or not. 

 

I don't understand how this matches the content of the post to which you're responding, which seems to be suggesting that a "no" vote is...well, go back and look

[HOUSE]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

@Billsflyer12 is a Colorado State fan that joined this board a couple of months after Josh was drafted.  He's only hear to troll Bills fans about Josh.

@Billl joined the board yesterday.  He's trolling

 

@SDS has suggested before that shadow-moderation is sometimes a problem on the board.

 

Please feel free to report anything you see as a problem, but otherwise, maybe leave moderation to the mods?

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't understand how this matches the content of the post to which you're responding, which seems to be suggesting that a "no" vote is...well, go back and look

 

Without going back and looking, I think I had liked his post and was just reinforcing it. If I blew that in some way, my bad. Sorry. 

 

I see how it could have been read that way. Edited now. 

 

“You”, in this case, was “they” the way I meant it. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Augie

[Pokebball]

8 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

So you're saying his reasons are that Wyoming won the Bronze Boot every year Allen started.?

Well, in the Bronze Boot's 51 yr history, CSU has only lead the series 1 yr.  So perhaps the rivalry isn't as big for us Wyo fans  

[Gugny]

41 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

@Billsflyer12 is a Colorado State fan that joined this board a couple of months after Josh was drafted.  He's only hear to troll Bills fans about Josh.

@Billl joined the board yesterday.  He's trolling

 

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

@SDS has suggested before that shadow-moderation is sometimes a problem on the board.

 

Please feel free to report anything you see as a problem, but otherwise, maybe leave moderation to the mods?

 

@Pokebball, I can tell you from experience that following the proper reporting procedures when it comes to calling out users who are clearly here for the sole purpose of trolling is effective.  Your desired action may not be immediate; but unless the obvious trolls change their ways, it's imminent.

[Billl]

59 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Still incorrect then

2018: 172.8 + 52.6 = 225.4

2019: 206.6 + 30.9 = 237.5

 

Oh, and if you're using total yards (rush and passing) why not use Total TDs (rush and passing)/game:  1.64 to 1.75.

 

Um, I don't think I said anything at all that remotely suggests that.  I said:" Edit: it should also be noted those are total fumbles, not fumbles lost.  Both matter, but lost matters more and 2 of them were snaps."  

 

I think it's important to note both, and to be clear about what one is talking about.  I ran into that myself when discussing Tyrod Taylor, who fumbled a lot.  People chided me for discussing total fumbles, instead of fumbles lost.  I think the point is to be clear.

 

 

Now that is a strange position to take.  Because his performance has indeed changed.  It can be seen in statistics (higher completion %) and by eye (better short/intermediate passing, better anticipation)

 

 

I only used the yardage starts from games he started.  His yards per game are identical year over year.  I also listed out his passing and rushing TDs.  You've shown that the difference between the two on a per game basis are essentially identical.  

 

Fumbles speak to ball security, full stop.  Allen's defenders want to treat it as Schrodinger's fumble...as if it's only poor ball security if the other team recovers.  That's not the case.  He leads the league in fumbles since he was drafted.

 

There's no conspiracy to discredit Allen as a QB.  The fact of the matter is that he's essentially the same player he was last year.  He's improved a little in some areas.  He's regressed a little in others.  He's shown that he's good enough to beat bad football teams when his defense plays well.  He was 24th in QBR last year, and he's 31st this year (immediately behind Mayfield, Dalton, Rudolph, Darnold, and Trubisky and ahead of only Mariota).  

 

The only way to say that he's improved materially is to cite the "eye test" which is just a way of saying that it's true just because you want it to be true.  When I use the same test, I see a guy who has immense physical gifts but who is slow through his progressions, lacks anticipation, and has inconsistent accuracy.  

 

I think he will get better, and he belongs in the league, but he's done nothing to show me he's going to be special.

[NoSaint]

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

@SDS has suggested before that shadow-moderation is sometimes a problem on the board.

 

Please feel free to report anything you see as a problem, but otherwise, maybe leave moderation to the mods?

im not sure that sharing feedback on who posters are is moderation though is it? If someone takes a 4merper4mer post serious, pointing out his history is just neighborly advice. If a guy is a fan of a rival college team and showed up after the draft it seems fair to acknowledge to someone hung up on him 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Billl said:

I only used the yardage starts from games he started.  His yards per game are identical year over year. 

 

In other words, you were selective about what you did, and failed to specify what that was clearly or justify why it’s appropriate to exclude data from games he didn’t start, but to include data from games he didn’t finish?

 

I think I’m done here.

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

im not sure that sharing feedback on who posters are is moderation though is it? If someone takes a 4merper4mer post serious, pointing out his history is just neighborly advice. If a guy is a fan of a rival college team and showed up after the draft it seems fair to acknowledge to someone hung up on him 

 

Pointing out someone just joined, their admitted fan rivalry, or what their past posting history is, fair game.

Proclaiming that someone is trolling is shadow-mod territory

[Orlando Buffalo]

3 hours ago, Tcali said:

I like JA. I just think he is not quite where you claim he is. Im hoping he is there in 1-2 more years.

I am curious if you think he is a bigger asset right now or liability? My point is that this team has some issues and he is helping them keep winning.

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In other words, you were selective about what you did, and failed to specify what that was clearly or justify why it’s appropriate to exclude data from games he didn’t start, but to include data from games he didn’t finish?

 

I think I’m done here.

 

 

 

 

Pointing out someone just joined, their admitted fan rivalry, or what their past posting history is, fair game.

Proclaiming that someone is trolling is shadow-mod territory

got it. Whether or not I agree, I didn’t get your specific distinction.

[BigDingus]

People around here were going to say yes no matter what.

With that said, I voted yes too, so I've got no room to talk lol

He hasn't proven he's a franchise QB yet, nor has he shown he was worthy of trading away so many picks to move up to take in the 1st round while passing on guys like Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes in 2017, but he IS improving.

However, I don't think he's improving in all areas, but he is improving in others that are definitely important. But man would I like to see just one game where he plays well all 4 quarters & doesn't disappear for long stretches. I don't even care if it's against Dolphins 3rd stringers, I just want to see it happen.

[TwistofFate]

56 minutes ago, Billl said:

I only used the yardage starts from games he started.  His yards per game are identical year over year.  I also listed out his passing and rushing TDs.  You've shown that the difference between the two on a per game basis are essentially identical.  

 

Fumbles speak to ball security, full stop.  Allen's defenders want to treat it as Schrodinger's fumble...as if it's only poor ball security if the other team recovers.  That's not the case.  He leads the league in fumbles since he was drafted.

 

There's no conspiracy to discredit Allen as a QB.  The fact of the matter is that he's essentially the same player he was last year.  He's improved a little in some areas.  He's regressed a little in others.  He's shown that he's good enough to beat bad football teams when his defense plays well.  He was 24th in QBR last year, and he's 31st this year (immediately behind Mayfield, Dalton, Rudolph, Darnold, and Trubisky and ahead of only Mariota).  

 

The only way to say that he's improved materially is to cite the "eye test" which is just a way of saying that it's true just because you want it to be true.  When I use the same test, I see a guy who has immense physical gifts but who is slow through his progressions, lacks anticipation, and has inconsistent accuracy.  

 

I think he will get better, and he belongs in the league, but he's done nothing to show me he's going to be special.

My sentiment's exactly. 

 

I honestly don't think he's going to be franchise material. 

 

I see a journeyman in his future unless it really starts clicking for him the second half of the season. 

 

 

[Billl]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In other words, you were selective about what you did, and failed to specify what that was clearly or justify why it’s appropriate to exclude data from games he didn’t start, but to include data from games he didn’t finish?

 

I think I’m done here.

What is your deal?  Are you really trying to pretend that it's disingenuous of me to compare stats from games he started?  You got me, I guess.  Congratulations.  You've blown the lid off the grand conspiracy to make people think that a QB who was ranked 24th last year versus 31st this year hasn't improved in any material way.  It couldn't be that I've simply got a different opinion.

 

Extra credit for sniffing out that poster who was clearly just a Colorado State plant sent to troll Bills fans.  That's just quality message board detective work right there.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, Billl said:

What is your deal?  Are you really trying to pretend that it's disingenuous of me to compare stats from games he started?  You got me, I guess.  Congratulations.  You've blown the lid off the grand conspiracy to make people think that a QB who was ranked 24th last year versus 31st this year hasn't improved in any material way.  It couldn't be that I've simply got a different opinion.

 

Extra credit for sniffing out that poster who was clearly just a Colorado State plant sent to troll Bills fans.  That's just quality message board detective work right there.

 

My “deal” is that if you’re going to post numbers showing that JA hasn’t changed as a passer from 1st to 2nd year, they should either be passing stats or, you should be transparent about what you did.  I look at the numbers and say “that ain’t right, here are the passer numbers”. You say “oh, I added in the rush yards”.  I say “here are the numbers with rush yards, still don’t match” “Oh, I only used numbers from games he started”.  C’mon Man!  Just be up front about what you did and why.

But if the question is “has he improved as a passer” (subject of poll and post) why include rushing stats?  And then if you do include rushing stats, why exclude some incomplete games and not others?  Does not make logical sense....unless you’re trying to come up with two exactly matching numbers.

 

I don’t believe I’ve said anything about Colorado State or trolls except to shut down some folks who were tossing around accusations of trolling, so this is a rather curious response at the end.

[Pokebball]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

What is your deal?  Are you really trying to pretend that it's disingenuous of me to compare stats from games he started?  You got me, I guess.  Congratulations.  You've blown the lid off the grand conspiracy to make people think that a QB who was ranked 24th last year versus 31st this year hasn't improved in any material way.  It couldn't be that I've simply got a different opinion.

 

Extra credit for sniffing out that poster who was clearly just a Colorado State plant sent to troll Bills fans.  That's just quality message board detective work right there.

Having just joined the board yesterday one has to ask are you really a Bills fan? I await your answer.

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

@SDS has suggested before that shadow-moderation is sometimes a problem on the board.

 

Please feel free to report anything you see as a problem, but otherwise, maybe leave moderation to the mods?

I don't care or desire to report anything. I appreciate the criticisms of Josh. It's what we do.

[Billsflyer12]

11 hours ago, Pokebball said:

@Billsflyer12 is a Colorado State fan that joined this board a couple of months after Josh was drafted.  He's only hear to troll Bills fans about Josh.

@Billl joined the board yesterday.  He's trolling

I’m not a f*****g troll.  I’m not CSU fan trolling Josh.  I’m a WNY native, huge Bills fan, that has a different opinion as you.  GMAFB.

 

FYI, I grew up in suburbs of Rochester, my family and I have been Bills fans my whole life.  My 3 older children were born at Strong Hospital in Rochester.  I was married in a church in Pittsford, as my wife is also a Rochester native.

 

Professionally I have moved around with my company.  We left WNY in 2004, lived in Houston for 8 years.  Then moved to Denver when my older kids were starting High School.  We just moved back to WNY this summer with our 2 younger kids, our 3 older kids stayed in Colorado as 2 of them are at Colorado St, another at the University of Colorado.  I’m not a CSU fan, just attended many games with my boys.  I’m a CU fan where my daughter attends school.

 

I’m a passionate, lifelong Bills fan.  I’ve watched every game, even having been away for 15 years.  Yes, I hated the Allen pick, like I said before mostly because they gave up capital to get him.  I hope Josh is the QB for us now that he is here.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Billsflyer12

[H2o]

Bottom line is, despite how any of you are trying to spin it, he is improving as a passer. His completion percentage is up almost 10 pts from last year. He's hitting on the intermediate throws consistently. He's more poised in the pocket, not taking off to run unless it actually is breaking down for the most part. Last year he would take off before it broke down, a lot. His footwork is getting better. He is throwing some absolute dimes out there at times. You can see that the game is starting to slow down a bit for him. What most of the detractors are basing their opinions upon is the fact he is not putting up gaudy numbers. I think you can thank Daboll for that in a lot of instances. Gugny had a spot on post about Daboll and his play calling the other day. He's not calling plays that keep Allen in a rythm a lot of times, A LOT of times. Josh is the highest rated 4th qtr QB in the NFL right now. Could he be doing that if he wasn't improved as a passer? I think not. Put your hatred aside, let go of the Mahomes/Watson Kleenex, and admit the truth. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by H2o

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/6/2019 at 9:20 AM, Chris66 said:

Easy answer is yes. Is he improving enough to justify spending 30 million per year in 2 years. Imo he will have to get a lot better.

 

There you are!  Elsewhere we were discussing open fans of other teams on this board who are civil & generally good contributors, and I couldn't remember your username.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Bottom line is, despite how any of you are trying to spin it, he is improving as a passer. His completion percentage is up almost 10 pts from last year.

 

I'm going to stop your response right here, because elsewhere on this thread, we see the contention that there are no metrics which show improvement, it's "eyeball test".

 

There are important metrics which show improvement, and it's not far to look. one of them is the simple, but known to be important, completion percentage.  It is up a significant 8%, while YPA is increased slightly from 6.5 to 6.8 ypa showing it's not all check downs and dump offs.  YPG (passing) is increased 33.8, TD % is up 1%, and INT % is down 1%

 

None of the above are where we want them to be for our "Franchise Guy" yet, but there is quantitatable, demonstrable improvement. 

 

12 hours ago, Billl said:

I only used the yardage starts from games he started.  His yards per game are identical year over year. 

 

Except for passing yardage, they aren't.  172.8 vs 206.6. 

 

And if one wants to exclude incomplete games, one should exclude both games he didn't start and games he didn't finish.

 

12 hours ago, Billl said:

The only way to say that he's improved materially is to cite the "eye test" which is just a way of saying that it's true just because you want it to be true. 

 

Except that is not true, and it's not far to look for.