Grading the next generation of quarterbacks...CBS Article

[BigDingus]

"Allen again couldn't connect deep, but with minimal pressure in this game, he was noticeably poised inside the pocket, got through his reads often, and threw with impressive accuracy at the short and intermediate levels"

As much as it sucks that Allen's deep ball accuracy has been awful the past 2 seasons, it's more important that he hits the short & intermediate passes. 

He will need to develop better accuracy with the deep ball, as we've seen numerous times this year clear TD opportunities have been missed due to poor accuracy, but over the course of a 60 minute game the majority of passes will be short-intermediate, and that's what will move the chains.

And the more you move the chains, the more time your defense has to rest...a defense which we absolutely need to do well in order for us to win any games. So I'm definitely happy with this development, and is a very positive sign for him moving forward.

[noacls]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All the folks who are still salty that we traded down and didn't draft him

I dont like that either

3 hours ago, Sig1Hunter said:

You’re kidding right? You must be new around these parts..

Not at all. Did not get what was being said. I do not like when people bring that up. 

[Hebert19]

2 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

lets just see how he progresses. its too early to tell. you cannot say he will be a franchise QB, and you can't say he is a bust

 

Trubisky led his team to 12 wins, avg 220 ypg and threw for 20+ TD's and now fans are burning his jersey. 

With respect I watched a lot of bears games over last few years (best friend is a bears fan) and he never ever passed the eyeball test.  Nagys creativity and an epic defense made him look better than he was.  

[billsbackto81]

Considering everyone knew he was a raw project coming in he is 11-8 as a starter with minimal talent his 1st season and has shown marked improvement in his 2nd as talent gradually gets infused on the roster. 

 

I'm not convinced yet of  Daboll's abilities as an OC but hey 6-2 is 6-2. 

 

This is what the plan was from the beginning. We have been pleasantly surprised with the season so far. Any level headed Bills fan realizes we've been gifted with a favorable schedule and unlike teams of years past they have taken advantage.

 

As the Jets and Browns are coming to realize you can't buy a quality team. Management, draft competence, cap awareness and chemistry builds a champion caliber team. This most likely is why no trade was made last week. This regime will not get looted for a temporary bandaid player. Complete rebuilds take an average of 3 years under stable management. As inconsistent as Josh has been he has shown progression from last year.  This is a predominately draft built team with quality mid level FA's sprinkled in. Regardless of how this year finishes I expect more improvement next season and a deeper run. 

 

If this group stays the course and if JA continues to progress we may very well see something special the next 5 years. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

10 hours ago, noacls said:

Who is comparing him to Mahomes?

Whoooo?!  Whooo weeel not wear the Mahomes reee-bon?!  ?

*
It’s like 5 neighbours all got new cars one year, but they’re all a bit prickly that last year Neighbour #6 took delivery on the Ferrari.  And as for the 5 new cars, a couple might turn out to be Yugos.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

I thought it was a pretty objective review of each QB.

 

I don't think it's necessarily objective.  He's using the eyeball test, and that's notorious for personal biases - subjectivity.  But at least he says he looked at each play in each game, which is better than checking off a pre-written "Allen is erratic and inaccurate" script.

 

The caveat I'd make is that normally, only 1-2 QB from a draft class make it, and that means "can play" not necessarily "are good".  Right now it's looking like Jackson and Allen, which is fine, but the real question is do they reach the level of an established QB?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Whoooo?!  Whooo weeel not wear the Mahomes reee-bon?!  ?

*
It’s like 5 neighbours all got new cars one year, but they’re all a bit prickly that last year Neighbour #6 took delivery on the Ferrari.  And as for the 5 new cars, a couple might turn out to be Yugos.

 

That's great!  Or to refine it a bit, two years ago the neighbors took delivery of a "mystery car" which sat in a crate for a year.  They started driving it just as the neighbors ordered cars.  Only it turned out the neighbors mystery car is a Ferrari, while the rest have cars that don't look nearly as snazzy.   One may turn out to be a Tesla, another may turn out to be a BMW X5, but it's far from certain, and yeah, a couple are looking as though they may be clunkers.

 

10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

No. I did not realize this nor do I find it even remotely close to accurate. Andy Reid is a very good offensive mind and the Chiefs have a ton of talent. Matt Moore and Alex Smith look pretty good in the system.

 

Pat Mahomes looks like a transcendent player in the mold of an Aaron Rodgers. I think you're seeing what you want to see.

 

Prior to Mahomes, Andy Reid NEVER once had a 30 TD passing season from a QB. This guy put up 50!

 

There's no reason to spin the truth to fit a narrative as Mahomes has nothing to do with Allen.

 

It's totally ridiculous to say that Reid is the reason Mahomes is successful, but I think it's reasonable to surmise that if Mahomes had been brought into a team which had a crap OL, no talent at WR, meh run game, and an OC/offensive system which may or may not turn out to be good - we would still see his promise, but his initial success would not be nearly as far off the charts.

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think it's necessarily objective.  He's using the eyeball test, and that's notorious for personal biases - subjectivity.  But at least he says he looked at each play in each game, which is better than checking off a pre-written "Allen is erratic and inaccurate" script.

 

The caveat I'd make is that normally, only 1-2 QB from a draft class make it, and that means "can play" not necessarily "are good".  Right now it's looking like Jackson and Allen, which is fine, but the real question is do they reach the level of an established QB?

 

 

 

He certainly was describing what he was watching; however, I am not sure if his overall assessments were strictly from the eyeball test or if he also takes into account statistical breakdowns as well. Regardless, there is a place for the eyeball test in evaluations, and even though it can be swayed by personal biases, it does not necessarily mean that it always is. 

 

Based on what I have observed of the QBs he mentioned, as well as a look at where they stand statistically, it seems like a pretty fair, objective take on each. Of course, I haven't broken down every play of every QB.

 

Right now, I would place Allen and Jackson at the top of that list They both have a long way to go; however, I think both are improving. Whether or not either turns into a franchise caliber QB remains to be seen. I think if both are able to remain in the same offensive systems next year, we should have a pretty good indication.

[DallasMac]

11 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

No. I did not realize this nor do I find it even remotely close to accurate. Andy Reid is a very good offensive mind and the Chiefs have a ton of talent. Matt Moore and Alex Smith look pretty good in the system.

 

Pat Mahomes looks like a transcendent player in the mold of an Aaron Rodgers. I think you're seeing what you want to see.

 

Prior to Mahomes, Andy Reid NEVER once had a 30 TD passing season from a QB. This guy put up 50!

 

There's no reason to spin the truth to fit a narrative as Mahomes has nothing to do with Allen.

Donovan McNabb 2004.  31 tds

[Sundancer]

The Bills drafted a kid that EVERYONE said was a project QB. 

 

We are into the 19th (?) game of the project. He's better now than when he arrived, and that's what I'm looking for in a project QB. 

 

And he's improved year to year with accuracy, poise, and decision making. Plus, I like that he remains confident when he makes mistakes. He is in a great spot, except when the fans put unrealistic expectations on his growth. He's going to have bad games in a row. Just look at the upward trends and how he corrects his mistakes. 

[Pokebball]

I'll just post this....

 

A year and a half ago all of you experts were saying that Allen and Jackson were the worst of the top 5 QBs and the least "NFL ready".

[Luka]

18 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Alex Smith and Matt Moore are decent game managers who's ceiling makes them Wild Card contenders at best.  Mahomes instantly upgraded then from a WC team to a Super Bowl contender with some of the most ridiculous throws I've ever seen.  Reid has a lot to do with Mahomes development but he''s so talented he'd be successful even if he started as a rookie with the '02 Texans. 

 

That's just not true. Probably one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen posted on this board.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..STILL think a Steve Young (yup...HIM) quote I read long ago apologies today....."more collegiate QB's fail versus succeed at the NFL level because of the speed and complexity of today's game".....some make it....others do not......some make it quickly while others need more time....some hit the limelight quickly with new wrinkles but get figured out by opposing DC's.....and we have not even touched on coaching philosophies or quality of developmental staff.....what is the legitimate window of development judging/grading (forget TBD; a career is 8 games or less)?.....remember reading an article about Kaep when he hit the limelight.....think it was around 20+ career games....NFL exec in the interview said ," we generally use a 50 game window for for legitimate assessment".....sure as hell didn't know about the "TBD Window of Assessment"......

[GoBills808]

19 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Alex Smith and Matt Moore are decent game managers who's ceiling makes them Wild Card contenders at best.  Mahomes instantly upgraded then from a WC team to a Super Bowl contender with some of the most ridiculous throws I've ever seen.  Reid has a lot to do with Mahomes development but he''s so talented he'd be successful even if he started as a rookie with the '02 Texans. 

Alex Smith:

                 

 

 

 

It's literally not even the same QB. Mahomes is a good QB but Reid and that system is responsible for WAY more of him than people will admit.

Edited November 6, 2019 by GoBills808
stupid chart

[LSHMEAB]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's great!  Or to refine it a bit, two years ago the neighbors took delivery of a "mystery car" which sat in a crate for a year.  They started driving it just as the neighbors ordered cars.  Only it turned out the neighbors mystery car is a Ferrari, while the rest have cars that don't look nearly as snazzy.   One may turn out to be a Tesla, another may turn out to be a BMW X5, but it's far from certain, and yeah, a couple are looking as though they may be clunkers.

 

 

It's totally ridiculous to say that Reid is the reason Mahomes is successful, but I think it's reasonable to surmise that if Mahomes had been brought into a team which had a crap OL, no talent at WR, meh run game, and an OC/offensive system which may or may not turn out to be good - we would still see his promise, but his initial success would not be nearly as far off the charts.

Oh, I agree with this 100 percent. He's in a GREAT position in KC. I'm referring to the notion that he would not be a good quarterback had he been drafted by the "wrong" team. I summarily reject this narrative. If you watch enough football, you recognize "special" when you see it. 

 

He wouldn't be putting up video game numbers; no question. He'd STILL be a rising star in this league. Great QB's tend to mask many offensive deficiencies. The question then becomes; do you think Mahomes is a great QB? My answer is a resounding yes.

 

But no; he would not have thrown for 50 TD's with the Bills last season or this season if we're bringing it back to JA. That much is true.

Edited November 7, 2019 by LSHMEAB