Bills Record under McD when opponent scores 20 points

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Not that it matters much but I’m like 99% sure Romo said that when we we played the Vikings

 

TBH I'm kind of happy someone else remembers it.  I don't think it was the Vikes game though, because as I recall he said it right after Josh threw a pick.

Josh didn't throw a pick in the Vikes game.  San Diego maybe?  Err.....I mean LA?

[Tesla03]

 

this is why I don't see us beating teams like the Ravens/Cowboys or competing with the Patriots for the division. we struggle so bad to put up points. 

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I will continue to bang the drum that the coaching of the offense & Allen and refusal to open up the offense, throw for 300 and see what they really have in Josh Allen.

 

I am 100% behind him and want him to the Bills QB the next dozen years.

 

Scoring 20 is not a high benchmark in this league and almost every team would tell you that is the minimum they expect week after week.

 

Here is the Bills record when the opposition scores 20 points vs. the Bills 3-17.

 

The Bills have beaten

 

TB in 2017 30-27

Jacksonville 2018 24-21

Miami 2019 31-21

 

Discuss????

 

Soooo when the opposition score more than the 25th ~ish team in scoring, the Bills lose.. sounds like a winning program.

[The Wiz]

Bill B is 0-124 in games that the other team scores more points so McD has a better records thus far.

[BigDingus]

12 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I will continue to bang the drum that the coaching of the offense & Allen and refusal to open up the offense, throw for 300 and see what they really have in Josh Allen.

 

I am 100% behind him and want him to the Bills QB the next dozen years.

 

Scoring 20 is not a high benchmark in this league and almost every team would tell you that is the minimum they expect week after week.

 

Here is the Bills record when the opposition scores 20 points vs. the Bills 3-17.

 

The Bills have beaten

 

TB in 2017 30-27

Jacksonville 2018 24-21

Miami 2019 31-21

 

Discuss????

 

 

It's pretty clear that if the defense isn't doing most of the heavy lifting, we won't win games. 

And just saying "throw for 300 yards" isn't how it works. Yes, good QB's show they can do that, and pretty consistently, but we don't have that with Allen *YET*

Also, just like with every OC that people complain about, I have to once again remind everyone that offenses & play calling are limited by offensive personnel & their ability to execute on the field.

We've seen games where the idea was definitely to force the pass and "open it up," as well as take shots down field. We weren't able to do those things...and often times our QB would not take care of the football. That leads to dialing it back, limiting the playbook and going with a more slow & methodical approach to help our QB manage the game better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d be interested to see if that same record holds true for other teams. In another words what’s the league wide record when you allow 20 or more points? 

It’s overall 50/50 at 22.6 points

[JaCrispy]

21 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

I think it's time ....

 

...for a prostate exam...?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

21 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I will continue to bang the drum that the coaching of the offense & Allen and refusal to open up the offense, throw for 300 and see what they really have in Josh Allen.

 

I am 100% behind him and want him to the Bills QB the next dozen years.

 

Scoring 20 is not a high benchmark in this league and almost every team would tell you that is the minimum they expect week after week.

 

Here is the Bills record when the opposition scores 20 points vs. the Bills 3-17.

 

The Bills have beaten

 

TB in 2017 30-27

Jacksonville 2018 24-21

Miami 2019 31-21

 

Discuss????

 

 

Well... Year 1 tyrod Taylor and Dennison didn't exactly set the world on fire. Year 2 we started like 5 QBs including multiple Peterman games. And year 3 only 2 teams have put up 20+. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Bill B is 0-124 in games that the other team scores more points so McD has a better records thus far.

 

THE STAT OF THE DAY!!!

[Putin]

22 hours ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Makes sense. Bills D has been pretty good at limiting points. When D isnt playing good, we will most likely lose every game. The O is still a work in progress. We really need offensive play makers early in the next draft.

I still say building the trenches should be our FIRST priority draft and free agency 

[SoCal Deek]

12 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The league record when the opposing team scores 20 or more points is 57 wins and 115 losses.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2019&year_max=2019&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&temperature_gtlt=lt&c1stat=points_opp&c1comp=gte&c1val=20&c5val=1.0&order_by=points_diff&offset=0

Thanks....there’s the stat I was looking for. So the Bills are clearly underperforming. The league averages one win out of every three games when the opponent scores 20 but we’re sitting at one out of six.

[Mango]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

And this is my issue with McDermott and the Bills offense.... a conservative, coaching scared, don’t turn the ball over mindset while sitting on leads and not attempting to pile on points works against the ***** teams of the league but it doesn’t against the better ones, nor is it a strategy for long term success or building a championship team, IMO. 

 

 

 

He needed to learn how to be a better passer in the NFL. If JA showed up in 2019, like he played in 2018, We could be 2-6. He completed about 50% of his passes. Through for about 160 per game, and threw more INTs than TD's. 

 

At what point does "being coached into Tyrod" become, not good enough to execute an NFL offense consistently. 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

He needed to learn how to be a better passer in the NFL. If JA showed up in 2019, like he played in 2018, We could be 2-6. He completed about 50% of his passes. Through for about 160 per game, and threw more INTs than TD's. 

 

At what point does "being coached into Tyrod" become, not good enough to execute an NFL offense consistently. 

You can play "what if" games all day long.  But the bottom line is Allen is progressing and playing better this year than last year.  List all the stats about 300 yard games in X amount of time by Qbs that have played X amount of games and have had Y amount of good receivers in Z amount of games in the snow and wind plus about a million other variables that one would want to throw into the equation (and actually need to throw into the conversation to make things statistically meaningful), and it won't change the fact that this season the Buffalo Bills are 6-2, and that their young QB is getting better as time goes on.

 

These comparisons to TT are over the top.  The big concerns about TT is he was too tentative throwing, and that he couldn't being the team back in the 4th quarter.  Allen has had to dial thing s back a bit because he was too aggressive trying to force passes and he is one of the highest rated fourth quarter QBs in the league.

 

Does he need to continue improving?  Certainly.  Is there evidence he won't?  Certainly not.

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You can play "what if" games all day long.  But the bottom line is Allen is progressing and playing better this year than last year.  List all the stats about 300 yard games in X amount of time by Qbs that have played X amount of games and have had Y amount of good receivers in Z amount of games in the snow and wind plus about a million other variables that one would want to throw into the equation (and actually need to throw into the conversation to make things statistically meaningful), and it won't change the fact that this season the Buffalo Bills are 6-2, and that their young QB is getting better as time goes on.

 

These comparisons to TT are over the top.  The big concerns about TT is he was too tentative throwing, and that he couldn't being the team back in the 4th quarter.  Allen has had to dial thing s back a bit because he was too aggressive trying to force passes and he is one of the highest rated fourth quarter QBs in the league.

 

Does he need to continue improving?  Certainly.  Is there evidence he won't?  Certainly not.

 

Dude, I don't know what your deal is, but the constant aggression and need to attack is ridiculous. I am watching you pull up post history in unrelated topics, just to defame people (not speaking to this post hear). Almost like you are chasing guys around the message board to call them out. It isn't funny, it isn't snarky, and it provides absolutely NOTHING to the conversation other than over-inflating your own self worth. It is just mean. Cut the shyte and just have a conversation. 

To the point, there was no what if game being played. JA is playing better this year, there is no question about that. Allen was bad last year (IMO), and even with his improvement, we are playing too many close games against too many bad teams. We cannot afford to have worse QB play than we are getting now. 

 

I do think the TT comparisons are a bit over the top as well, but I also understand people seeing him play a much more conservative version of himself compared to last year. Seems like he is missing a lot of the big plays. Point being, we needed this out of JA to be 6-2. Then I posited a question, "at what point is this not a McD criticism, but a JA concern, that in order to protect wins and losses, we have to provide such a governor. 

 

I don't know why I just typed 3 paragraphs asking a grown man to just be a nice guy, and re-explain everything that is already posted and quoted in this thread. But here we are, maybe I am the dummy. Ha. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Dude, I don't know what your deal is, but the constant aggression and need to attack is ridiculous. I am watching you pull up post history in unrelated topics, just to defame people (not speaking to this post hear). Almost like you are chasing guys around the message board to call them out. It isn't funny, it isn't snarky, and it provides absolutely NOTHING to the conversation other than over-inflating your own self worth. It is just mean. Cut the shyte and just have a conversation. 

To the point, there was no what if game being played. JA is playing better this year, there is no question about that. Allen was bad last year (IMO), and even with his improvement, we are playing too many close games against too many bad teams. We cannot afford to have worse QB play than we are getting now. 

 

I do think the TT comparisons are a bit over the top as well, but I also understand people seeing him play a much more conservative version of himself compared to last year. Seems like he is missing a lot of the big plays. Point being, we needed this out of JA to be 6-2. Then I posited a question, "at what point is this not a McD criticism, but a JA concern, that in order to protect wins and losses, we have to provide such a governor. 

 

I don't know why I just typed 3 paragraphs asking a grown man to just be a nice guy, and re-explain everything that is already posted and quoted in this thread. But here we are, maybe I am the dummy. Ha. 

I am not defaming you.  I am however challenging some of your premises.  If you feel defamed my apologies.  But you did say if the 2018 Allen played in 2019 we'd be 2-6.  That  is pretty much the definition of playing the "what if" game.    I am glad you also think the TT comparisons are over the top.  I would call them apples and oranges myself.

 

I think we agree on wanting to see them take the brakes off of Allen.  I started a thread a week or so again titles Let Josh be Josh.  I am impressed by what he does in the fourth quarters, where he throws more and has more freedom to make plays.  I'd like to see that happen all 4 quarters.

 

When it comes to numbers and statistics, I tend to be skeptical and critical.  I have a research science background and as such had to take a lot of stats classes and have to use stats in my daily work.  Your thread about the 300 yard passing?  If you recall. I commended you for pulling that data, and that you did not place as much statistical relevance to it than it merited.  Unfortunately, some took your data and used it to try and make definitive conclusions about Allen's play that were not merited. 

 

All I know is this:  Allen is a second year QB that is showing improvement.  The last several games he has cut down on picks.  And the record is 6-2.  Forget the stuff about schedule and other QBs and on and on.  right now he's in pretty good shape, and the team is in really good shape.  I just wish everyone would settle down and actually be happy that the team is where they are right now as opposed to looking for reasons to be so negative.

[BillsVet]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I do think it might be a fair point that our coaches have Josh so concerned about making mistakes that he's become reluctant to take shots.  On the other hand, he was taking too many chances and hurting the team, so it needed to be curtailed.

 

Hopefully it will balance out in a bit.

 

I'm thinking the game-plan has been to reduce visibility and, as you say, not throw picks.  It's a poor development strategy for a guy they invested the so many draft picks to acquire.

 

I'll applaud them for getting the QB, but the hard part continues to put him into positions to succeed.  Or, perhaps McD and crew want him to be more of an offensive care-taker than offensive weapon.  We're going to find out these next 8 weeks. 

 

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Bill B is 0-124 in games that the other team scores more points so McD has a better records thus far.

 

BB is 5-0 versus McD.  Just sayin'.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

I'm thinking the game-plan has been to reduce visibility and, as you say, not throw picks.  It's a poor development strategy for a guy they invested the so many draft picks to acquire.

 

There's one viewpoint that believes the Bills coaches are deliberately putting "brakes" on Josh and telling him not to take shots.

 

I don't think that's it at all.  I think they are coaching him, "You must know where the safety is before you take that shot.  You must look for these patterns and make sure you're not getting lured in."

 

And Josh is listening to the coaches, and looking, and processing.  That slows an athlete down, and it means Josh isn't taking some shots that are there, and when he does take them, sometimes pressure has gotten there and the throw is off or the timing is off.  But eventually, with the good athletes, pattern recognition becomes intuitive and subconscious and things speed back up.

 

I would argue that this isn't a poor development strategy, it's a necessary development strategy if they really want Josh to become The Man, because otherwise what happens is the guy throws a lot of picks and people are all "well, he's learning, give him time" then in year 2 or 3 he's still throwing picks and making poor decisions and it's "throw him out, he's crap".

 

But again, I don't think it's a coaching or game plan decision "we're putting the brakes on you Josh, we don't want you to take those shots".

 

23 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

I'll applaud them for getting the QB, but the hard part continues to put him into positions to succeed.  Or, perhaps McD and crew want him to be more of an offensive care-taker than offensive weapon.  We're going to find out these next 8 weeks.

 

TBH, I don't think we're going to find out until we improve our WR/TE corps.  Knox shows promise, but he's dropping too many.  Brown is very good, but cover him and there goes the neighborhood.  To put Josh in position to succeed we really need at least one more excellent WR.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

13 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

And this is my issue with McDermott and the Bills offense.... a conservative, coaching scared, don’t turn the ball over mindset while sitting on leads and not attempting to pile on points works against the ***** teams of the league but it doesn’t against the better ones, nor is it a strategy for long term success or building a championship team, IMO. 

 

 

Even the defense is far more aggressive against good teams and seems more passive against crap teams? Like they are playing not to lose. I would've played tight coverage and blitzed like crazy against Haskins in his first start. And to me the last few years the defense comes out more aggressive in the first few games of the year then turns more passive, PUT PRESSURE ON YOUNG QBs.

 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

There's one viewpoint that believes the Bills coaches are deliberately putting "brakes" on Josh and telling him not to take shots.

 

I don't think that's it at all.  I think they are coaching him, "You must know where the safety is before you take that shot.  You must look for these patterns and make sure you're not getting lured in."

 

And Josh is listening to the coaches, and looking, and processing.  That slows an athlete down, and it means Josh isn't taking some shots that are there, and when he does take them, sometimes pressure has gotten there and the throw is off or the timing is off.  But eventually, with the good athletes, pattern recognition becomes intuitive and subconscious and things speed back up.

 

I would argue that this isn't a poor development strategy, it's a necessary development strategy if they really want Josh to become The Man, because otherwise what happens is the guy throws a lot of picks and people are all "well, he's learning, give him time" then in year 2 or 3 he's still throwing picks and making poor decisions and it's "throw him out, he's crap".

 

But again, I don't think it's a coaching or game plan decision "we're putting the brakes on you Josh, we don't want you to take those shots".

 

 

TBH, I don't think we're going to find out until we improve our WR/TE corps.  Knox shows promise, but he's dropping too many.  Brown is very good, but cover him and there goes the neighborhood.  To put Josh in position to succeed we really need at least one more excellent WR.

 

These next 8 games will provide some illumination on McD, Allen, et al. I further suspect we'll be able to make some real conclusions about the Bills at the end of this season which we cannot today.  I think it's time to watch and wait. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Edit: OK, inspired by the recent theme of the shoutbox, I revived my intestinal fortitude and surveyed all 32 times for 2018 and 2019 to date.

Here is a list of teams sorted by Win % when the team gives up 20 or more points.

So two observations about the Bills:

1) We are in the top quartile (top eight) teams for the number of games where we give up 20 or more points

In other words, our D is good enough that it happens to us less frequently than to 75% of the other NFL teams.

That's Good News, especially when we have been near the top of the league for turnovers given up in this time period

2) We are in the bottom quartile (bottom eight) teams for the number of wins when we do give up 20 or more points.

 

Bonus league-wide observation:

Only 6 teams better 50/50 odds in a game where they give up 20 or more points.

Last year, we had a strange brew at QB ranging from Nate Peterman, to the aged and un-retired Derek Anderson, to Matt Barkley, to our raw rookie.  Let's hope we are able to  better this going forward

 

But to the Op and his "drum banging", having Josh Allen start slinging it all over with the goal of breaking 300 yds is probably NOT the path to success, either in this metric or for long-term winning.