Buffalo Bills Might Be Most Flawed 6-2 Team You’ve Ever Seen

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

42 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 I simply have lost faith in him. 

 

Took you 9 pages to finally say it.  Just own it and quit beating around the bush.  I take the opinions of true evaluators over some middle-aged adult still living with his parents.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLUFqx2slds&t=2607s  (Cover 1 analysis of the Redskins game)

 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[TwistofFate]

28 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They both have ~30 attempts a game.  Allen is 160 yards behind Jackson in total passing yards which works out to 20 yards a game. 20+ yard completions 26 vs 25.  40+ yard completions 5 vs 4. 12 TDs vs 10 TDs. 5 INTS vs 7 INTS. INT% 2.1 vs 2.9.

 

I don't know where you keep coming up with some of this stuff that you spew out but statistically as far as passing they are pretty close.  So if Allen is statistically one of the worst starting QBs in the league then Jackson isn't too far behind him.

Jackson done it against high level opponents.  

 

They aren't statistically close.  Jackson has 600 yards of total offense more than Allen, has less Ints, less fumbles, less turnovers total and averages more than 10 points more per game. 

 

Jacksons name is beginning to be mentioned as MVP.  allen is no where near that status. 

 

Are you living under a rock? 

[TwistofFate]

28 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Took you 9 pages to finally say it.  Just own it and quit beating around the bush.  I take the opinions of true evaluators over some middle-aged adult still living with his parents.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLUFqx2slds&t=2607s  (Cover 1 analysis of the Redskins game)

 

 

9 pages to say it?   Beating around the bush?   I've said it multiple times in various different threads. 

 

True evaluators???   LMFAO.  A couple of Buffalo homers talking about the greatness of Allen?

 

Enjoy living sugar plum land. 

 

[Scott7975]

12 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Jackson done it against high level opponents.  

 

They aren't statistically close.  Jackson has 600 yards of total offense more than Allen, has less Ints, less fumbles, less turnovers total and averages more than 10 points more per game. 

 

Jacksons name is beginning to be mentioned as MVP.  allen is no where near that status. 

 

Are you living under a rock? 

 

I posted passing stats.  Yes Jackson is running a lot better.  That team embraces it.  Passing wise they are statistically close to the same.  I posted it.  They are the numbers.  You can't move goal posts. Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Bengals.  Those are not high level opponents.  That leaves Seattle, NE, and KC.

 

Seattle 9/20 45% 146 yards 0 TD 0 INTs  

KC 22/43 51% 267 yards 0 TD 0 INTs

NE 17/23 74% 163 yards 1 TD 0 INTs

 

Those are the passing stats against high level opponents.  Same stats you crucify Allen for.

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Scott7975

[TwistofFate]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I posted passing stats.  Yes Jackson is running a lot better.  That team embraces it.  Passing wise they are statistically close to the same.  I posted it.  They are the numbers.  You can't move goal posts. Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Bengals.  Those are not high level opponents.  That leaves Seattle, NE, and KC.

 

Seattle 9/20 45% 146 yards 0 TD 0 INTs  

KC 22/43 51% 267 yards 0 TD 0 INTs

NE 17/23 74% 163 yards 1 TD 0 INTs

 

Those are the passing stats against high level opponents.  Same stats you crucify Allen for.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001073380/article/lamar-jackson-makes-mvp-case-in-ravens-victory-over-patriots%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Dbal%3Bteam%3Dbal%3Bconf%3Dafc%3Bdvsn%3Dacn&sr=amp

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/04/earl-thomas-lamar-jackson-is-the-mvp/amp/

 

http://www.nfl.com/m/share?p=%2Fvideos%2Fbaldys-breakdowns%2F0ap3000001068280%2FWhy-Lamar-Jackson-is-an-MVP-candidate-Baldy-s-Breakdowns

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Vegas believes the public thinks Bills are about as good as the Browns. 

Not exactly. There is a distinction here in Vegas between the "public" and the sharp bettors who rely on data.

 

The public is going to bet heavily on the Bills. The sharp money is betting heavily on Cleveland.

 

Hopefully the public wins this one, but I prefer situations when the inverse is true; sharp money on Buffalo, public money on opponent. We shall see. That's why they play the games and all that jazz. A win in Cleveland would be huge for the Bills season. Huge.

[Big Blitz]

You can't match his athleticism no doubt.  But I'm not sure you can say Jackson is ahead of any of the QBs of 2018 as a passer.  He's not really being asked to be one.  

 

Since week 1 against Miami (so I'm not sure it counts?) Lamar has thrown 7 TDs and 5 INTs and has yet to throw for more than 1 TD in a game since September 29.  

 

He only rushed for 6 yards that day.   So almost all of his 600 plus yards rushing has been in the last 7 games.  Not sure how sustainable that it is.  

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

56 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

9 pages to say it?   Beating around the bush?   I've said it multiple times in various different threads. 

 

True evaluators???   LMFAO.  A couple of Buffalo homers talking about the greatness of Allen?

 

Enjoy living sugar plum land. 

 

 

Obviously you didn't watch the video.  They give an honest assessment of where he is improving, where he still needs to improve, and have coached and played.  Something you're incapable of because you can't evaluate talent, your a biased hater, and you still live with your parents.  

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Sportsline agrees with the premise Bills are overrated.  So check these out

 

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/sportsline-nfl-futures-simulations-have-little-love-for-the-6-2-buffalo-bills/

excerpt from above link

Buffalo might be a bit of a fraud as its wins are over the New York Jets, New York Giants, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Miami and Washington – the Titans are OK but those other teams are truly horrible. The Bills have played two good teams in the Patriots and Eagles and lost both. Buffalo is in Cleveland this Sunday and is a 2.5-point underdog on the NFL odds to a 2-6 team on a four-game losing streak. The Browns are down to a 6.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and it's only that high because the team has a very easy schedule left.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gongCYLPJVjeGTj33E8Jiedw5ER7tj6sUn32Dg9rCvw/edit#gid=1615202201

They have Bills at 20th ranked team in power rankings and only 71% chance of making playoffs in their simulation summary for entire season.  They also have Bills coming in at 9.9 wins - same as Texans.

 

 

 

"... might be a bit of a fraud ..." is absolutely does NOT mean that Sportsline "agrees with the premise Bills are overrated." You've done a mighty poor job of paraphrasing there.

 

A reasonable paraphrase there might be that they think it's possible that the Bills may not be as good as their record would make you think they are.

 

A 71% chance of making the playoffs isn't a team you think is definitely overrated.

 

They're right that the Bills have  questions. But they never said what you think they said.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Not exactly. There is a distinction here in Vegas between the "public" and the sharp bettors who rely on data.

 

The public is going to bet heavily on the Bills. The sharp money is betting heavily on Cleveland.

 

Hopefully the public wins this one, but I prefer situations when the inverse is true; sharp money on Buffalo, public money on opponent. We shall see. That's why they play the games and all that jazz. A win in Cleveland would be huge for the Bills season. Huge.

Seems you're right as the sharps are all over this as around 80% of the bets are on the Bills and the line hasn't moved.  Taking the Browns under a field goal at -2.5 is tempting in order to hedge my emotions.  With my luck the Browns will win by one.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

No comeback wins? 

Baltimore tied it up against Pittsburg by kicking a field goal with 14 seconds left. Then won in OT on a day that Jackson passed for 161 yards 1TD and 3 INTS

Baltimore got their asses handed to them by the Browns on a day where Jackson  threw 2 INTs

Against Seattle Jackson was 9/20 for 143 yards.  The defense had 2 TDs that game.  Are you going to sit there and act like Jackson was the reason they won?

 

As far as passing goes... Jackson only has a ~20 ypg avg more than Allen. That's like 1-2 passes.  Lets not act like Jackson is a world beater while Josh is terrible.  Lets also not act like Baltimore has played all good teams.  Mia, Arizona, Cinci, Pitts, Browns. Jackson is doing well this season but so is Allen.  Jackson may have a couple games where he had bigger highs, but passing wise he really isn't doing all that much better than Allen is.

 

 

20 yards more per game is a lot. Especially when Allen has thrown five more attempts than Jackson has. Producing twenty more yards per game out of fewer attempts, that's really better. And twenty yards per game isn't 1 or 2 more passes, it's about three more attempts ... per game. Allen is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, so twenty more yards would be three more attempts ... and again, Allen has thrown slightly more than Lamar has, not less.

 

Jackson has been much better this year so far. Josh's 82.9 passer rating vs. Lamar's 95.4 shows that clearly. More TDs, fewer INTs, Lamar's four fumbles vs. Josh's ten ... and that's not even counting run yards, where Josh has been very good and Jackson All-World, on target to gain 1274 yards for the year.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Lets not act like Jackson is a world beater while Josh is terrible.

 

 

 

This is the kind of move that people with losing arguments tend to make. People aren't saying that. You're having to resort to exaggerations and straw man arguments.

 

Mostly what people are saying is that Jackson has been very good this year and Josh below average though either one could get better or worse down the road. They're both young. Plenty of very good QBs were still playing below average football this early in their careers.

 

But as for how each has played this year, Jackson has simply been a lot better. I'm just happy to see that Josh does seem to be trending up lately.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I posted passing stats.  Yes Jackson is running a lot better.  That team embraces it.  Passing wise they are statistically close to the same.  I posted it.  They are the numbers.  You can't move goal posts. Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Bengals.  Those are not high level opponents.  That leaves Seattle, NE, and KC.

 

Seattle 9/20 45% 146 yards 0 TD 0 INTs  

KC 22/43 51% 267 yards 0 TD 0 INTs

NE 17/23 74% 163 yards 1 TD 0 INTs

 

Those are the passing stats against high level opponents.  Same stats you crucify Allen for.

 

 

 

So then how about Allen against high level opponents, which would be the Patriots.

 

13 for 28, 46% 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

 

 

 

And no, their overall passing stats aren't statistically close to the same.

 

In completion percentage, Jackson is ranked 18th among QBs with more than 100 attempts. Allen is 28th.

 

YPA? Jackson is 13th and Allen 25th.

 

INTs? Allen is in a five-way tie for 8th-most, putting him in the "top" 12 in the league in total INTs.. Jackson is in  for 13th-most, so he's in the "top" 18.

 

TD/INT ratio? Jackson is 12:5. Allen is 10:7. I'm not going through and counting the rankings there, but let's just say that Jackson is within the 22 QBs who have double the amount of TDs, and Allen is not.

 

Passer rating? Jackson is 14th and Allen is 27th.

 

 

 

 

They're not close. I wish Allen's were better enough to get close, but they are not.

 

And again, those are the passing stats, ignoring fumbles and run yards.

 

 

 

Twist of Fate isn't right to have given up hope for Allen, and the fact that he has has clearly colored his perceptions. Allen is young and appears to be trending up. Good things could happen.

 

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So then how about Allen against high level opponents, which would be the Patriots.

 

13 for 28, 46% 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

 

 

 

And no, their overall passing stats aren't statistically close to the same.

 

In completion percentage, Jackson is ranked 18th among QBs with more than 100 attempts. Allen is 28th.

 

YPA? Jackson is 13th and Allen 25th.

 

INTs? Allen is in a five-way tie for 8th-most, putting him in the "top" 12 in the league in total INTs.. Jackson is in  for 13th-most, so he's in the "top" 18.

 

TD/INT ratio? Jackson is 12:5. Allen is 10:7. I'm not going through and counting the rankings there, but let's just say that Jackson is within the 22 QBs who have double the amount of TDs, and Allen is not.

 

Passer rating? Jackson is 14th and Allen is 27th.

 

 

 

 

They're not close. I wish Allen's were better enough to get close, but they are not.

 

And again, those are the passing stats, ignoring fumbles and run yards.

 

 

 

Twist of Fate isn't right to have given up hope for Allen, and the fact that he has has clearly colored his perceptions. Allen is young and appears to be trending up. Good things could happen.

 

 

 

 

I’m not trying to prove Allen is great here. I’m saying that Allen and Jackson aren’t that far apart. 
 

You’re talking ranks and I’m talking raw stats. 2 int difference is not a lot. 20 yards per game is not a lot to me even though it is to you. 
 

Most of Jackson stats are skewed from a week one Miami game where Miami fielded a high school team and Jackson played lights out and the league wasn’t ready for him. 
 

Again, I’m not saying Jackson is bad. I’m saying they are closer than people want to admit. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Scott7975

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

20 yards more per game is a lot. Especially when Allen has thrown five more attempts than Jackson has. Producing twenty more yards per game out of fewer attempts, that's really better. And twenty yards per game isn't 1 or 2 more passes, it's about three more attempts ... per game. Allen is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, so twenty more yards would be three more attempts ... and again, Allen has thrown slightly more than Lamar has, not less.

 

Jackson has been much better this year so far. Josh's 82.9 passer rating vs. Lamar's 95.4 shows that clearly. More TDs, fewer INTs, Lamar's four fumbles vs. Josh's ten ... and that's not even counting run yards, where Josh has been very good and Jackson All-World, on target to gain 1274 yards for the year.

 

 

 

 

 

This is the kind of move that people with losing arguments tend to make. People aren't saying that. You're having to resort to exaggerations and straw man arguments.

 

Mostly what people are saying is that Jackson has been very good this year and Josh below average though either one could get better or worse down the road. They're both young. Plenty of very good QBs were still playing below average football this early in their careers.

 

But as for how each has played this year, Jackson has simply been a lot better. I'm just happy to see that Josh does seem to be trending up lately.

 

Not as a passer he hasn't. As a RB at QB? Sure.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I’m skeptical this group believes in playmakers at WR.... they had nothing on the perimeter for Cam during their super bowl run. 

ive had the same worry 

[Dopey]

Since it's Browns week a question keeps popping up in my mind every time I see the title of this thread: Would you rather be perceived as a "flawed" 6-2 team or as a "talented" 2-6 team? Ask the Browns this question. I've wanted to ask this question since this thread was started, but never did. Dopey me.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Dopey

[Tcali]

I think the Bills and the Browns are about equal at this point. And the odds reflect that.

Mayfield is the better QB.Better instincts.But Cleveland is its usual mess of a team.

[Chicken Boo]

Those who look strictly at the record and refuse to delve into glaring issues on this team are the same ones who will be furious when all of these flaws rear their ugly head in the most meaningful games.

 

No excuses.  You've been warned.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Those who look strictly at the record and refuse to delve into glaring issues on this team are the same ones who will be furious when all of these flaws rear their ugly head in the most meaningful games.

 

No excuses.  You've been warned.

So the fans play a role in solving the shortcomings...got it

Edited November 6, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Jackson done it against high level opponents.  

 

 

No.

 

No he hasn't.

 

He piled up enormous numbers against the train wreck Miami squad (who seemingly have rallied a bit since week 4) in week 1, and has been wholly mediocre at best since.

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by thebandit27