By the numbers: Average Defense, Below Avg offense, easy schedule = 6-2 on way to 10-6

[MDH]

3 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

. 

.To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

 

While I appreciate that went into compiling these numbers the above is the problem. Without knowing how to interpret the data the numbers don’t mean much. You’re making assumptions when you need more data. There should be no “to me“. In order to interpret the date you complied you have to have the same information on all the other teams in the league to compare these numbers to.  

 

Getting data is the first step, interpreting the data is the important one.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

 

I can't really speak for the OP, but for myself I take time to do this kind of thing because it sort of relaxes me.

 

Some people knit, some carve wood, I start up Excel and muck about in the numbers.

[billsfan89]

I would say the defense is above average, they were elite top 3 in the league through 5 games, the last 3 games they have ranged from average (Skins and Fins considering those teams talent levels) and poor (Eagles.) So overall through 8 games I would put the defense as having performed at a top 10 rate overall. The offense I will agree has been slightly below average. Not tragic like last season, they can move the ball and even somewhat consistently esp against weaker defenses. But the offense has a growing QB who is a bit turnover prone and the lack of an elite WR1 hampers the team against better defenses. 

 

The special teams has been above average. Good kicking game, very strong return game, solid on kick/punt coverage but very very poor on the punting game (the one big blemish of the unit is Bojo.) I also think that this team is just very well coached and that gives them an edge over a lot of teams. They play good situational football and don't let mistakes frazzle them and they play disciplined. I know this teams penalty stats are mid level or worse (They rank 21st in penalties per game and 15th in penalty yards) but their penalties don't seem to come at in opportune times for the most part. They also play smart situationally. 

 

I think overall this team is an above average team feasting on a bad schedule. But that's what you have to do in the NFL to get to double digit wins. I think people also have to stay clam and remember that this team has the cap space and cap flexibility going forward to resign their own players and add a piece or two to go along with continuing to build through the draft. This isn't a situation like the Bears this year where they gutted their cap and draft assets to infuse their team with a lot of talent. The Bills added a lot of talent and depth but didn't go crazy with spending either. 

[mjt328]

I'm getting tired of hearing about the easy schedule.  Even if the Bills manage to ONLY beat the bad/mediocre teams this year, it's still a significant step from where this team has been.  Even if we are one/done in the Wild Card Round, it's still a big milestone for this growing franchise.

 

There are only so many really good teams in the NFL.  Everyone knows, the Bills played an absolutely brutal schedule last year.  Yet when everything was added up, they still only faced 8 games against teams with more than 8 wins.  That's the reality of the NFL.  If you can take care of business against the teams you SHOULD beat, you are going to be in talks for the playoffs most of the time.  

 

The next level is consistently competing against and occasionally beating the really good teams. 

We aren't there yet.  And that's OK.

This is a franchise that completely blew up everything (front office, coaching staff, scouting department, roster, salary cap) less than 3 years ago.  They hired a first-time General Manager and a first-time Head Coach, who were tasked with fixing one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.  They rebuilt the locker room, player by player, and  then drafted one of the rawest first round Quarterback prospects I've ever seen.  This was always going to be a methodical and grueling process, as opposed to a quick overnight fix.

 

If you would have polled ANYONE before the season, they would have been thrilled with the kind of improvement this team has shown in the first 8 games.  But at some point, the standards for a "successful" season changed.  Suddenly it's not enough to win games on Sunday.  We need to be blowing teams out by 3 touchdowns, or fans are miserable.  It's pathetic and I feel really sorry for anyone with that kind of attitude.

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

2 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Its possible that we can go 11-5 without ever beating a team with a winning record. 

 

The year Ravens won the SB with Dilfer (2000), they played only six games against teams with winning records. They benefited from a very weak division. (Sound familiar?)

 

I'm not saying the Bills are going to the SB, but fix the run D and keep improving Allen -- and everyone knows Allen continues to improve -- and in a couple of years this can be a great team.

 

For reference in 2000, the Ravens Played:

 

Teams with winning records:

Steelers (x2) were 9-7

Dolphins were 11-5

Titans (x2) were 13-3

Jets were 9-7

 

Teams with losing records:

Jaguars (x2) were 7-9

Bengals (x2) were 4-12

Browns (x2) were 3-13

Redskins were 8-8

Cowboys were 5-11

Cardinals were 3-13

Chargers were 1-15

 

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What is it then?  

 

The Bills D did play very well vs. NE, quite well vs. Tennessee (who also happened to miss 4 fgs!!!).

 

Otherwise the D has been AVERAGE and has played only one team with an above average Offense (Philly).

 

Rose coloured glasses?

This is not how you evaluate a defense that is why they actually keep stats so that you can compare it to the rest of the league

 

instead of calling others homers maybe you should do your fuking research

 

if we were not having run fit  problems right now we would be undefeated

 

if you did a simple search you will see that we sit anywhere from 3 to 5 but def in the top 10

 

that is not average no matter how math chellenged you might be

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Yep, that's about the size of it.

When does the party end?

 

When we go on the road to play a playoff game against a good team with a QB.

 

Don't expect much more than what we delivered against Jacksonville a couple years ago.

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I'm getting tired of hearing about the easy schedule.  Even if the Bills manage to ONLY beat the bad/mediocre teams this year, it's still a significant step from where this team has been.  Even if we are one/done in the Wild Card Round, it's still a big milestone for this growing franchise.\

 

This is completely correct. People who keep saying the Billsl are benefiting from an easy schedule are the same people who, somehow, have forgotten that past Bills teams would find ways to LOSE the games they were supposed to win.

 

Now they are WINNING the games they're supposed to win. Yeah, it's a lot of ugly, a winning culture is difficult to create, so I can't understand why people refuse to believe the Bills teams is, overall, getting better.

[IDBillzFan]

 

 

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Yep, that's about the size of it.

When does the party end?

 

When we go on the road to play a playoff game against a good team with a QB.

 

Don't expect much more than what we delivered against Jacksonville a couple years ago.

 

Oh, please. You can take everything you know for absolute certainty about the next 8 games, write it down on a piece of paper, crumble up the paper and comfortably fit it up the ass of a gnat.

 

Some of you work really hard trying to determine when the party is going to end. Not even sure why you bother following the team if your plan at 6-2 is to predict when the next shoe is dropping.

 

Relax. Enjoy yourself. Have fun. Wave your flag. Be a homer. No one will think less of you for it.

[billsbackto81]

This team reminds me of the 2017 Jaguars. Very good D, suspect QB and favorable schedule they rode to a 10-6 record and an appearance in the AFC Championship game. That season they had some stinkers like losses to the Jets, Titans 2x, Cards and 9er's (they weren't good then). Plus some close wins against mediocre teams sprinkled in. 

Difference is they did have a few quality wins as well. Still feel if we had a different QB instead of Taylor we would have won.

 

Point being, just get to the playoffs. Hopefully a home game. It's a new season, everybody is 0-0 and as the Jags proved 2 years ago anything is possible.

[CodeMonkey]

1 hour ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is completely correct. People who keep saying the Billsl are benefiting from an easy schedule are the same people who, somehow, have forgotten that past Bills teams would find ways to LOSE the games they were supposed to win.

 

Now they are WINNING the games they're supposed to win. Yeah, it's a lot of ugly, a winning culture is difficult to create, so I can't understand why people refuse to believe the Bills teams is, overall, getting better.

 

I haven't seen anyone say they don't think the Bills are better. They clearly are.  Instead of losing to the dregs of the NFL they , as you said, are finding [often ugly] ways to win them.  They are a mediocre team which is what the OP is basically saying.  Mediocre this year likely gets them into the playoffs, due to their easy schedule.

But at the same time, there are threads about the Bills being the #1 seed. 

Edited November 4, 2019 by CodeMonkey

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

I'm getting tired of hearing about the easy schedule.  Even if the Bills manage to ONLY beat the bad/mediocre teams this year, it's still a significant step from where this team has been.  Even if we are one/done in the Wild Card Round, it's still a big milestone for this growing franchise.

 

There are only so many really good teams in the NFL.  Everyone knows, the Bills played an absolutely brutal schedule last year.  Yet when everything was added up, they still only faced 8 games against teams with more than 8 wins.  That's the reality of the NFL.  If you can take care of business against the teams you SHOULD beat, you are going to be in talks for the playoffs most of the time.  

 

The next level is consistently competing against and occasionally beating the really good teams. 

We aren't there yet.  And that's OK.

This is a franchise that completely blew up everything (front office, coaching staff, scouting department, roster, salary cap) less than 3 years ago.  They hired a first-time General Manager and a first-time Head Coach, who were tasked with fixing one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.  They rebuilt the locker room, player by player, and  then drafted one of the rawest first round Quarterback prospects I've ever seen.  This was always going to be a methodical and grueling process, as opposed to a quick overnight fix.

 

If you would have polled ANYONE before the season, they would have been thrilled with the kind of improvement this team has shown in the first 8 games.  But at some point, the standards for a "successful" season changed.  Suddenly it's not enough to win games on Sunday.  We need to be blowing teams out by 3 touchdowns, or fans are miserable.  It's pathetic and I feel really sorry for anyone with that kind of attitude.

 

 

It's beyond easy, it's been a joke to date & that is why I keep wanting to see or get an idea of what the Bills have in Josh Allen and I have no idea thanks to Daboll & McD.  To be excited that they have either had to come back or were in games that were one score games in the fourth quarter are red flags.

 

So they've beaten teams with 0, 1, 1, 1 & 2 wins is making great strides because they did not lose????

 

Another poster drinking the McD Koolaid and spouting off about The Process......

 

And yes 300 yards passing and a vertical game with Allen is important to see if they have something.

 

Funny too that Allen's passing yards have gone down since week 3 and never has had more then 255 in a game.

 

Remember this is the coaching staff that had Nathan Peterman start vs. LAC and named the starter in 2018.  

Edited November 4, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[IDBillzFan]

20 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

But at the same time, there are threads about the Bills being the #1 seed. 

 

People who think we're a  #1 seed need to stop drinking and, if possible, stop calling into "Movin' The Chains" on Sirius XM.

 

Every time a Bills fan calls into a national NFL radio show, an angel has their wings cut off with a dull blade.

[Scott7975]

Nine Sundays deep in the 2019 NFL campaign, the AFC wild-card picture is as muddled as ever. Consequently, we're in for a compelling race over the back half of the regular season.

I firmly believe that the AFC's four current division leaders -- the Patriots (8-1), Ravens (6-2), Texans (6-3) and Chiefs (6-3) -- will hold serve over the next two months. Meanwhile, three AFC teams -- the Dolphins (1-7), Jets (1-7) and Bengals (0-8) -- are completely cooked. This leaves nine teams vying for the conference's two wild-card slots. Great news for me, whose last name rhymes with the number nine!

So, without further ado, allow me to rank the contenders in a crowded AFC wild-card race, Schein Nine style:

LOCK IT IN

 

1) Buffalo Bills (6-2)

 

I'm going to nail my Cinderella pick for the third straight year. In March of 2017, I pointed to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who advanced all the way to the 2017 AFC Championship Game. In March of 2018, I spotlighted the Chicago Bears, who won their first division title in nearly a decade. And this past March, I focused attention on the Buffalo Bills, who are off to their best start since 1993 -- the last of their four straight Super Bowl seasons.

I love the defense. I love the head coach. I love the culture. I'm not surprised that Josh Allen has indeed progressed in Year 2, having just logged his third game of the season with a 100-plus passer rating -- something he only accomplished twice as a rookie. Meanwhile, third-round RB Devin Singletary's return to good health is a huge deal, as evidenced by the rookie's 140 total yards in Sunday's 24-9 win over Washington.

The Bills can absolutely hit 11 wins this year, putting them in a class of their own in the AFC wild-card race.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001073458/article/afc-wildcard-race-buffalo-bills-top-crowded-field-of-contenders

• By Adam Schein
• NFL.com Columnist
• Published: Nov. 4, 2019 at 01:43 p.m.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It's beyond easy, it's been a joke to date & that is why I keep wanting to see or get an idea of what the Bills have in Josh Allen and I have no idea thanks to Daboll & McD.  To be excited that they have either had to come back or were in games that were one score games in the fourth quarter are red flags.

 

Red flags for what exactly?  Nobody is expecting the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year, or even win the AFC East.  Very few expect them to get past the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.  Before the season, people were hoping for them to compete for a Wild Card spot, and that's 100% exactly what they are doing.  It's infuriating that some fans keep moving the goalpost on expectations.

 

I watch tons of football games every Sunday.  The vast majority of them are still close in the 4th Quarter.  Blowouts are rare, and good teams very often need to comeback and beat inferior opponents.  

 

The fact that you consider virtually every team on their schedule a "joke" is telling in itself.  If the Bills are now expected to totally DESTROY the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Redskins, Lions, Bears, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers and Cardinals -- that should be a sign that you think they've improved.

 

 

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So they've beaten teams with 0, 1, 1, 1 & 2 wins is making great strides because they did not lose????

 

Uh.  Yes.

 

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Another poster drinking the McD Koolaid and spouting off about The Process......

 

Sorry if you thought turning around this franchise would happen overnight.

 

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

And yes 300 yards passing and a vertical game with Allen is important to see if they have something.

 

Funny too that Allen's passing yards have gone down since week 3 and never has had more then 255 in a game.

 

Remember this is the coaching staff that had Nathan Peterman start vs. LAC and named the starter in 2018.  

 

No.  It's important to you, and people who dwell on statistics.

Nobody else gives a crap.

 

Coaches don't need a 300 game from Josh Allen to judge his progress.  They are calling the plays, and watching how he executes.  

Pretty much everyone who breaks down film has been praising Allen for standing in the pocket, going through his progressions, then delivering an accurate ball -- you know, all the things critics said he wouldn't be able to do.  

 

Unless they benefit from a big play or two, QBs are going to need to make at least 35-40 attempts per game to hit the 300 yard threshold.  That isn't our team right now.  Allen is averaging just over 30 attempts per game, and threw for 254/243 the only times he hit that range.  

 

It's pretty clear this team is focused on Defense and not turning the ball over.  They started with a QB who was wild and inaccurate, and are gradually teaching him to be efficient and smart.  Balance between aggression and conservative play will need to come with time.

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Red flags for what exactly?  Nobody is expecting the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year, or even win the AFC East.  Very few expect them to get past the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.  Before the season, people were hoping for them to compete for a Wild Card spot, and that's 100% exactly what they are doing.  It's infuriating that some fans keep moving the goalpost on expectations.

 

I watch tons of football games every Sunday.  The vast majority of them are still close in the 4th Quarter.  Blowouts are rare, and good teams very often need to comeback and beat inferior opponents.  

 

The fact that you consider virtually every team on their schedule a "joke" is telling in itself.  If the Bills are now expected to totally DESTROY the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Redskins, Lions, Bears, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers and Cardinals -- that should be a sign that you think they've improved.

 

 

 

Uh.  Yes.

 

 

Sorry if you thought turning around this franchise would happen overnight.

 

 

No.  It's important to you, and people who dwell on statistics.

Nobody else gives a crap.

 

Coaches don't need a 300 game from Josh Allen to judge his progress.  They are calling the plays, and watching how he executes.  

Pretty much everyone who breaks down film has been praising Allen for standing in the pocket, going through his progressions, then delivering an accurate ball -- you know, all the things critics said he wouldn't be able to do.  

 

Unless they benefit from a big play or two, QBs are going to need to make at least 35-40 attempts per game to hit the 300 yard threshold.  That isn't our team right now.  Allen is averaging just over 30 attempts per game, and threw for 254/243 the only times he hit that range.  

 

It's pretty clear this team is focused on Defense and not turning the ball over.  They started with a QB who was wild and inaccurate, and are gradually teaching him to be efficient and smart.  Balance between aggression and conservative play will need to come with time.

 

I expect 1-2 games that they win convincingly against terrible opposition.  

 

9 Weeks & I counted 43 games where there was a minimum of a 10 point spread entering the 4th......  or about 5/wk......

 

And again 300 is a benchmarks that every great QB hits fairly early and is not a difficult feat, unless the Buffalo Bill.

 

The fact we can't reach 300 vs. lousy teams is disconcerting.  I keep saying as a huge Bills fan I want to know what Josh Allen is and 20 passes/game is not enough.

[Rocbillsfan1]

The bills are playing a historically weak schedule and needed late game heroics against the jets, titans, dolphins, and bengals.  They are a couple missed fgs and a Fitzpatrick int late when they should have just kicked the fg to go up 8 from 3-5. And that’s against an incredibly weak schedule. This is a very average team that is winning and we can enjoy that and look to build on this but if you think we have arrived or are a good team you are smoking some serious *****. 

[Locomark]

12 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

I think this is a reasonable hypothesis. The main ingredients that can change it are injuries (a big one) and turnovers. Our turnovers have gone way down and that is a good thing and maybe that is worth an extra win. 

[Big Blitz]

Opener vs a fully healthy Jets team.  Win.

 

The Jets imploded.  

 

On the road beat Eli and the Giants.

 

Eli starts his last game.

 

 

How do we know that if say we lost those 2 games the Jets don't implode and Eli keeps his job?

 

I'm just sayin...I like to think we destroyed the Jets season.  

 

Also the Bengals were playing for their season in week 3 and put up 400 yards IN SEATTLE in the air without Green.  Philly's season was on the line to.  We didn't match their intensity and got out everything's oh well.  

 

Dak is currently 13-22 against the same D Josh threw for 250 yards on.  

 

This whole weak schedule thing is really really ridiculous.  We get it.  We're not New Orleans, New England, or .......idk? 

 

I think we showed in week 4 we can play with anyone.  

 

We all should be even more excited bc we have an actual running game now so defenses don't just worry about Allen (no one cares about Gore).  

 

Instead we're lamenting how great we aren't.  

 

You'd think a town that has had such miserable run with its teams would be jubilant.  Instead its following the lead of its bitter miserable talking head losers on the radio. 

 

I listened again today.  I'm sorry but I started a new job and am in the car longer.  Feel obligated to know what's being said.  First topic at 3pm?  Baker Mayfield.  Are you kidding me?  .

 

Then I heard Schopp actually argue that its brave and smart for teams to take chances on small QBs now and not be afraid to be innovative.

 

Hmmmm........he was adamant it needed to be Johnson over Flutie.  

 

Joke.  

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I expect 1-2 games that they win convincingly against terrible opposition.  

 

9 Weeks & I counted 43 games where there was a minimum of a 10 point spread entering the 4th......  or about 5/wk......

 

And again 300 is a benchmarks that every great QB hits fairly early and is not a difficult feat, unless the Buffalo Bill.

 

The fact we can't reach 300 vs. lousy teams is disconcerting.  I keep saying as a huge Bills fan I want to know what Josh Allen is and 20 passes/game is not enough.

What exactly is a convincing win that is enough for you and why does it matter