By the numbers: Average Defense, Below Avg offense, easy schedule = 6-2 on way to 10-6

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And again what does that mean for the Bills?  Chubb is a great back, which is not a good match-up.  Cleveland has had a very hard schedule.

 

 

 

But the Head Coach is a moron who probably won't run Chubb more than half a dozen times.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the Head Coach is a moron who probably won't run Chubb more than half a dozen times.

We can only hope.......?

 

Also they have the best receivers the Bills have faced all year.  Sure they can screw it up though.

[prissythecat]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And again what does that mean for the Bills?  Chubb is a great back, which is not a good match-up.  Cleveland has had a very hard schedule.

 

 

 

Dude.  As you stated ad nauseam,  300 yards passing is all that matters.  What does it matter if the DL of the Bills doesn't match up well against an RB.  Just have Allen pass for 300 yards and we win?

[ajmac]

Really, so no one I going to correct the OP on spelling definitely wrong??

 

Dephinatilley not bro!!! 

 

This is deafinetly a poor thread thats for sure.

[BuffaninSarasota]

42 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The Jets beat the Cowboys 3 weeks ago & just lost to Miami, so we have to approach individual game predictions with caution,.  Still, there's no way the Bills win only 2 games the rest of the season unless they get a slew of injuries.  

 

Before the season on another board I broke down the reasoning why I thought this was 10 win team.  Here's what I said:  Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.  

 

As of now it looks like we're still on schedule to win 10.  So far my opinion of Baltimore & Jackson may need revision as well as my higher opinion of the Jets.  Flip another Jets win & give the Baltimore game a loss & we still win 10 games.  I still think we can win 1 of the games vs NE, Dallas & Pittsburgh, with the most likely win vs Pittsburgh,  There's also a good chance we beat Cleveland this week & exceed my expectations on the Tennessee/Cleveland split.  I still think we beat Denver at home.  

So if we beat Cleveland, we don't even have to win one of the 3 games remaining against the teams that appeared to be the toughest games before the season started to get to 10 wins.  

 

please tell me how one could have a higher opinion on the Jets, who lost to the Fins yesterday.........to wit:

 

https://nypost.com/2019/11/03/embarrassing-jets-hit-rock-bottom-with-loss-to-tanking-dolphins/

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

41 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Teams always lose games they should win.  Remember the 1992 Bills?  They lost games to the Colts & Jets they had no business losing & it cost them home field.  I remember the only road AFC championship game in the Super Bowl era was that year in Miami because of the 2 losses vs what at the time were bad teams.    

The thing is, other teams lose games they should win too. Works both ways. That’s why they play ‘em. 

[Dr. K]

I'll admit that, given the history Bills fans have had to suffer with over the last 20 years, I am a victim of BBFS. I'm happy about the 6-2 record but I remember those seasons where they started so well only to fall off a cliff in the second half of the season, losing three or four straight, getting blown away by good teams and losing miserably to average and poor ones. 

 

I want to believe that this team is different, but I can't say I have great confidence that it is not. Every game is therefore a test, an adventure, a source of anxiety.

 

 Enjoying the moment, expecting disappointment. That's what Bills fandom is about, isn't it?

[Boatdrinks]

Numbers can be really boring.

[Dr. K]

4 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

please tell me how one could have a higher opinion on the Jets, who lost to the Fins yesterday.........to wit:

 

https://nypost.com/2019/11/03/embarrassing-jets-hit-rock-bottom-with-loss-to-tanking-dolphins/

 

 

You are misreading--granted he said it poorly. Albany means he had a better opinion of the Jets before the season than he has now.

[Z-Mann]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

This doesn't pass the smell test.  I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average.  Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall.  That's better than slightly above.  I think you're undervaluing 10% better.

 

I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats.  While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.

The defense still might be a VERY good defense, especially when compared to the rest of the league...like you said, ranked third overall.  He is just comparing how their defense played against those teams with how other defenses played against those teams.  

 

Besides the Patriots game, where the defense played out of their minds, the Bills are stopping their opponents at approximately the same rate that all other teams are.  That tells me that it's difficult to determine how good the defense really is...not saying they are bad, also not confident that they are top 5 in the league...

[Albany,n.y.]

5 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

please tell me how one could have a higher opinion on the Jets, who lost to the Fins yesterday.........to wit:

 

https://nypost.com/2019/11/03/embarrassing-jets-hit-rock-bottom-with-loss-to-tanking-dolphins/

 

 

That statement about my higher opinion was the pre-season opinion that I need to change as I need to change my preseason opinion of Baltimore.  Overestimated the Jets, underestimated Baltimore.  

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said:

That statement about my higher opinion was the pre-season opinion that I need to change as I need to change my preseason opinion of Baltimore.  Overestimated the Jets, underestimated Baltimore.  

I get it - thanks

[Z-Mann]

To use some economic terms, the lagging indicator is "6-2" - no complaints there, and it's ultimately the thing that matters most when trying to make the playoffs.  So I get it from that angle.  Would rather be a 10-6 team that plays a easy schedule and makes the playoffs versus a 7-9 team that plays well but does not make the playoffs.

 

I also see the other POV...the leading indicators and everything that goes into that 6-2 record...I just do not know if it can be sustained.  They've played an easy schedule, the QB is averaging either a fumble or INT for every TD he produces (passing and running), the majority of their games have been at home so far...there's plenty of reason to feel that this is ultimately a 9-7 type of team once they start playing better teams.

 

So, great that they are 6-2, but cautious about their upcoming schedule and ability to make the playoffs.

[BillsFan2313]

Last 6 carries for AP yesterday -3,0,4,0,0,-2.

Hey, I know being positive isnt the norm around here, but maybe the figured something out? 

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

Last 6 carries for AP yesterday -3,0,4,0,0,-2.

Hey, I know being positive isnt the norm around here, but maybe the figured something out? 

They do, but the changes they made were possible because of rookie Haskins at QB. It probably won’t work vs a team with a passing game. Coaches are going to earn their paycheck this week. 

[BillsFan2313]

9 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

They do, but the changes they made were possible because of rookie Haskins at QB. It probably won’t work vs a team with a passing game. Coaches are going to earn their paycheck this week. 

 

Browns have given up the 4th most YPC. With Singletery finally unleashed, our running game will be an issue for the Browns also. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Browns have given up the 4th most YPC. With Singletery finally unleashed, our running game will be an issue for the Browns also. 

I don’t think the Bills OL is good enough to impose their will on anyone yet. If they can do it, that would go a long way to winning the game. Browns have talent all over the place, but they’re not a very good team. 

[BillsFan2313]

16 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I don’t think the Bills OL is good enough to impose their will on anyone yet. If they can do it, that would go a long way to winning the game. Browns have talent all over the place, but they’re not a very good team. 

 

Interesting take. I think the play calling doesn't allow for that. Bills o line were taking the Pats DL to the woodshed. 6.4 YPC for Gore, but wanted to try and unleash Allen, instead of feeding Gore. 

Edited November 4, 2019 by BillsFan2313

[CodeMonkey]

3 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

Great post thanks.  People won't like the premise of going 4-4 for the remainder of the season which you are seeing already in some responses, but it makes sense.

Edited November 4, 2019 by CodeMonkey

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

Good work and reasonable assessment and prediction of future results.

 

For some perspective: with a different way of looking at it than percentage change:

Across the league, the average for points scored/points given up per game is 23 (22.5 or 22.6, round up).  The standard deviation is 5 (5.1, round down).  So a result between 18 points and 28 ppg would be within 1 standard deviation of the mean.  Our opponents average points allowed and average points scored fall within that range (24 points allowed, 18 points given up).  The Bills average if I'm calculating correctly is 158/8 or 20 ppg scored - that's also within 1 std deviation of the league mean.  Our opponent score is 131/8 = 16 so below 1 std deviation of the league average.

 

Long winded way of saying yes, our defense is above average (lower than 1 std deviation from ppg given up), and our offense is within 1 std deviation of average - below average, but maybe not significantly, we'll see as the games move on.

 

I think there's a good chance that we fire up and knock down one of the opponents few will give us a chance on (Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots).  I think there's also a chance one of the teams that look like a realistic win, fires up and gets by us.  But overall 10-6 or 11-5 seems within reach, if we avoid injuries and keep hacking away at improving our problems.

 

'Zo and others have correctly tabbed turnovers as a key issue.

I think you may have one minor mistake if I understand it - doesn't really change your conclusion - look at the Bengals Opponent score and Opponent Average Score , 17-16 = 1 (you have 2).  Again, it's minor and doesn't affect your conclusion.