By the numbers: Average Defense, Below Avg offense, easy schedule = 6-2 on way to 10-6

[PlayoffsPlease]

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

Edited November 4, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease

[H2o]

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

This doesn't pass the smell test.  I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average.  Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall.  That's better than slightly above.  I think you're undervaluing 10% better.

 

I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats.  While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.

[John from Riverside]

Our d is not average

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

[PlayoffsPlease]

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

11-5 is possible.  Its possible that we can go 11-5 without ever beating a team with a winning record.  I am pretty sure we need to beat a team with a winning record to win a playoff game though. 

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

This doesn't pass the smell test.  I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average.  Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall.  That's better than slightly above.  I think you're undervaluing 10% better.

 

I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats.  While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.

 

I stand by my process

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

Well, it had one very above average game compared to other teams against that opponent, the new england game.   It had one horrible below average game against the Eagles.  Against all the other opponents, we allowed a fairly similar amount of points as the rest of the league.  When you perform at the same level as the league average, that seems like an average performance to me. Of course I am only  going on actual results, not eye tests or my imagination. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

11-5 is possible.  Its possible that we can go 11-5 without ever beating a team with a winning record.  I am pretty sure we need to beat a team with a winning record to win a playoff game though. 

 

I stand by my process

 

Fine, just make sure you're standing in the back of the math class.

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Slightly above average. Good secondary, average front 7 who struggle against the run and don't pressure the QB.

I am Gumby Dammit,  just say elite.

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Phins are a gimme? They were a yard away from being up 21-9 on us at home midway through the 3rd quarter. They are playing well as of late. We could easily lose that game.

Like I said...8-8, we drop a stinker to the Phins or Jets.  I say "gimmies" because that will be the rose colored general consensus from the board...But I;'m right there with ya on the Phins

[PlayoffsPlease]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Fine, just make sure you're standing in the back of the math class.

My process is simple arithmetic. It  claims no statistical correlation.  The arithmetic is correct.  And it reaches a logical conclusion.  The Bills have more or less performed against our opponents, the same as the rest of the league has. 

[billsfan1959]

31 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents.

 

Why? It is a fools errand. You cannot compare two things with completely different variables and reach any sort of meaningful conclusions. Differrent players, coaches, gameplans, conditions, play to play scenarios and situations, etc., etc. etc....

 

We beat the Jets, who beat the Cowboys, who beat the Eagles, who beat us. What exactly does that say, other than on any given Sunday (Monday and Thursday)...?

[RiotAct]

26 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

lol, Ravens and Cowboys are absolutely not “definate losses”.

[26TrapDraw]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

Our Run D is garbage. It's the recipe to beat the Bills and with the offense getting 20 yards a game we are lucky we are playing garbage teams. Facts are facts and the Fact is Allen and the offense have to produce and we have to shore up the run D. I love that we are stacking up wins against the putrid teams in the NFL . I will say our pass Defense is Terrific.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Did you feel like yesterday’s game was a gimme in the third quarter? 

[Virgil]

43 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

Edited November 4, 2019 by Virgil

[Billsfan1972]

35 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

What is it then?  

 

The Bills D did play very well vs. NE, quite well vs. Tennessee (who also happened to miss 4 fgs!!!).

 

Otherwise the D has been AVERAGE and has played only one team with an above average Offense (Philly).

 

Rose coloured glasses?

[Jrb1979]

Why is it when any one posts anything that has anything negative to say about some issues with the Bills its always blown off. Too many homers here that just think 6-2 ,6-2,6-2 

[Mrbojanglezs]

This is a growth year team, not a super bowl contender team, don't we all understand this?

 

I will take 10+ wins on a growth year on an easy schedule any day over another 7, 8, 9 win team against a tougher schedule.

 

This team has not had more than 9 wins in what 2 decades? my god just enjoy it.

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Mrbojanglezs

[Tenhigh]

32 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Like I said...8-8, we drop a stinker to the Phins or Jets.  I say "gimmies" because that will be the rose colored general consensus from the board...But I;'m right there with ya on the Phins

Hey look, Debbie found a friend.