dave mcbride Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Seems to be all about what PFF thinks? No, one of the links is to FO (the one citing TruMedia), and the last part of the article is all TruMedia info, not PFF. Anyway, most of it is just basic math.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: No, one of the links is to FO (the one citing TruMedia), and the last part of the article is all TruMedia info, not PFF. Anyway, most of it is just basic math. Haha well I didn't count, and on 2nd glance I can see your point in the graphs, but a lot of the text was "negative run block ratings from PFF" "rusher rating from PFF" etc
GunnerBill Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 2 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Worth your time, GG. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/11/05/bill-callahan-redskins-are-running-treadmill-nowhere/ Also - @GunnerBill Thanks @dave mcbride. You gotta pass to win. That is the modern NFL.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: Thanks @dave mcbride. You gotta pass to win. That is the modern NFL. Also, have to defend the pass. Which is why I'm not too concerned about run defense. Good thing too, given some of our personnel choices 1
K-9 Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Thanks @dave mcbride. You gotta pass to win. That is the modern NFL. Pass to score, run to win as the old adage goes. 2
GunnerBill Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Also, have to defend the pass. Which is why I'm not too concerned about run defense. Good thing too, given some of our personnel choices I agree. You should prioritise pass defense. You don't want to be where the Bills were for 2 and a half games where teams can just run the same rush play over and over but if you are going to have a weakness better it is run D than pass D. That is just beyond doubt. Just look at some of the personnel moves teams made in the offseason. CJ Mosely is one of the best old school MLBs in the league. He can shut down a run game. The Ravens let him walk. Landon Collins the premier safety in the NFL coming into the box and hitting. The Giants let him walk. Yes being able to run and stop the run still matters. But you have to be able to pass and stop the pass first and foremost. Edited November 6, 2019 by GunnerBill 1 1
Willyville Guy Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 45 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: 6.5 wins was the Vegas Win totally IIRC .5 games from cashing in. Same here. And if the 84-1 super bowl bet hits....
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: I need to reread this. I was 7 years old. ...r u still in the same hi-chair?....just askin'............... 1 1
EmotionallyUnstable Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 If there is a games to go 6 OL in some packages, it’s this. I think it would give Smoke, Foster, or the TEs some good down field match ups by forcing more in the box
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I. You should prioritise pass defense. You don't want to be where the Bills were for 2 and a half games where teams can just run the same rush play over and over but if you are going to have a weakness better it is pass D than run D. That is just beyond doubt. I’m confused here Gunner. You say prioritize pass D. Then you say if you’re gonna have a weakness better it is pass D. Isnt that contradictory?
GunnerBill Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I’m confused here Gunner. You say prioritize pass D. Then you say if you’re gonna have a weakness better it is pass D. Isnt that contradictory? Sorry. Got that list bit the wrong way around. You are better having a weakness at run D. My mistake. Doing too many things at once.
dave mcbride Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, K-9 said: Pass to score, run to win as the old adage goes. From the article: "Remember, the rate of a team’s rushing attempts goes up in direct proportion to the score margin. In other words, you win to run, not run to win." 1
atlbillsfan1975 Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 43 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Also, have to defend the pass. Which is why I'm not too concerned about run defense. Good thing too, given some of our personnel choices Good point, but we need the run defense to be a little more than a speed bump. 1
GoBills808 Posted November 6, 2019 Posted November 6, 2019 51 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Also, have to defend the pass. Which is why I'm not too concerned about run defense. Good thing too, given some of our personnel choices It holds up too. This season at least there is a much stronger correlation between winning% and good pass defense as opposed to run defense.
Dablitzkrieg Posted November 7, 2019 Posted November 7, 2019 Just listened to Fred Smerlus with Bob Matthews. Says he expects Buffalo to beat up Cleveland badly and Kitchens has no brain?
K-9 Posted November 7, 2019 Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: From the article: "Remember, the rate of a team’s rushing attempts goes up in direct proportion to the score margin. In other words, you win to run, not run to win." I didn’t read the article, but it sounds like a semantics issue to me.
BearNorth Posted November 7, 2019 Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: I need to reread this. I was 7 years old. I was 17 freshman in college.
GoBills808 Posted November 7, 2019 Posted November 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, K-9 said: I didn’t read the article, but it sounds like a semantics issue to me. It's in the quote and well established: teams tend to run the ball at rates related directly to their point differential, ie as your margin of victory increases so do your rush attempts. That's a different proposition in that it takes gameflow into account. If you just took an average of the highest winning teams in the NFL in a given year, they'd likely be on the higher end of rush attempts. When broken down into WHEN those attempts occurred, it turns out that the correlation with rush attempts isn't with winning% as much as it is with in-game point differential. When you're winning, you tend to run more. When you're winning by a lot, you run a lot. 1
K-9 Posted November 7, 2019 Posted November 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: It's in the quote and well established: teams tend to run the ball at rates related directly to their point differential, ie as your margin of victory increases so do your rush attempts. That's a different proposition in that it takes gameflow into account. If you just took an average of the highest winning teams in the NFL in a given year, they'd likely be on the higher end of rush attempts. When broken down into WHEN those attempts occurred, it turns out that the correlation with rush attempts isn't with winning% as much as it is with in-game point differential. When you're winning, you tend to run more. When you're winning by a lot, you run a lot. That’s exactly what the old saying, “pass to score, run to win” means. Pass to put up points early, get a lead, and run the ball to protect it late.
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