Week 10: Bills at Browns

[Coach Tuesday]

Lot of talk about Baker, Landry and Beckham - but their offense runs through Chubb, who outside of Garrett is their best player.  Gap integrity will be huge this Sunday.  If the Bills need to bring safeties up in the box to stop the run, the Browns have the wideouts to punish them for it.  Our front seven needs to bring their A-Game.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2hHallie Grossman

Bills Mafia welcomes a newcomer named optimism

The Bills Mafia has beer stashed in a toilet, a Tom Brady-hating corgi and a fan caked in condiments. What happens when hope is added to the tailgating mix?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

58 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If the Bills want to win this game they need to run the ball well.   Cleveland is better in almost every statistical category on offense, and close on defense when it comes to defending the pass.   Where the Browns suffer is against the run.    They need all hands on deck in the run game.  Get Singletary started early, and have Yeldon up to help in the screen game.   Neutralize Garrett by running screens to the opposite side.

 

This is a must win, biggest game of the year for them.

Where the hell you get those numbers from or is your interpretation wrong? Bills Passer Rating allowed 74.8  Browns 103.6 ; Bills passing yards allowed 184.6/gm Browns 216.3/gm, +31.7/gm more! I might add that Bills have allowed 131 pts to Browns 205. On offense is it is pretty even Browns 5.2 carry/121yds Bills 4.6 129 yards, Passer rating Bills 81.2/ 206.6ypg, Browns 71.2/225 ypg. The volume is balanced out by the efficiency and the Bills have scored more 158-152. So a big NO the Browns aren't better statistically in every category on offense and the pass defenses aren't equal, and the run defense which has been our weakness is better than the Browns, and our points are better. So nice try, but a big wrong. Jeez this Browns team may have a bigger halo effect than any team in history. WHY??? And, you know what, not saying the Bills win, its the NFL either team could win Sunday. But, c'mon be thoughtful and present accurate arguments.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

If the Bills want to win this game they need to run the ball well.   Cleveland is better in almost every statistical category on offense, and close on defense when it comes to defending the pass.   Where the Browns suffer is against the run.    They need all hands on deck in the run game.  Get Singletary started early, and have Yeldon up to help in the screen game.   Neutralize Garrett by running screens to the opposite side.

 

This is a must win, biggest game of the year for them.

I don’t think it’s a must win, or even a bigger game than Miami or the Jets

[thenorthremembers]

6 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Where the hell you get those numbers from or is your interpretation wrong? Bills Passer Rating allowed 74.8  Browns 103.6 ; Bills passing yards allowed 184.6/gm Browns 216.3/gm, +31.7/gm more! I might add that Bills have allowed 131 pts to Browns 205. On offense is it is pretty even Browns 5.2 carry/121yds Bills 4.6 129 yards, Passer rating Bills 81.2/ 206.6ypg, Browns 71.2/225 ypg. The volume is balanced out by the efficiency and the Bills have scored more 158-152. So a big NO the Browns aren't better statistically in every category on offense and the pass defenses aren't equal, and the run defense which has been our weakness is better than the Browns, and our points are better. So nice try, but a big wrong. Jeez this Browns team may have a bigger halo effect than any team in history. WHY???

 

I said Cleveland is better in statistical categories on offense and close on defense

 

Total Offense: Browns- 19th, Bills-23rd  Passing Offense- Browns-17th, Bills 26th

Defense: Passing Browns 6th, Bills 3rd  Rushing- Browns 30th, Bills 19th

 

Given the Browns are a better passing team, but have a glaring weakness in defending the run, you need to keep their offense off the field and run the ball well.  Dont see where its a big wrong.

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t think it’s a must win, or even a bigger game than Miami or the Jets

All due respect.  I think all the games outside of Patriots, Cowboys, and Ravens are must wins.   If the Colts, Raiders, or Browns get hot down the end of the season 10-6 may not get you there. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I said Cleveland is better in statistical categories on offense and close on defense

 

Total Offense: Browns- 19th, Bills-23rd  Passing Offense- Browns-17th, Bills 26th

Defense: Passing Browns 6th, Bills 3rd  Rushing- Browns 30th, Bills 19th

 

Given the Browns are a better passing team, but have a glaring weakness in defending the run, you need to keep their offense off the field and run the ball well.  Dont see where its a big wrong.

Because rankings alone don't tell the story. Efficiency needs to be accounted for as well as volume. For example,  Browns pass defense is low in yards because everyone runs on them. 100+ passer rating means they are carved up by the other teams, never the case against the Bills at 74 rating. Not trying to be a dick, just point out the obvious.

Edited November 5, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[thenorthremembers]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Because rankings enough don't tell the story. Efficiency needs to be accounted for as well as volume. For example,  Browns pass defense is low in yards because everyone runs on them. 100+ passer rating means they are carved up by the other teams, never the case against the Bills at 74 rating. Not trying to be a dick, just point out the obvious.

I think thats a fair point.  Normalization is important.  I took that stats at face value.

 

 

[badassgixxer05]

Please for the love of god be able to stop the run. If we do that we win. If not, will be a long day. Go Bills!

[Lurker]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t think it’s a must win, or even a bigger game than Miami or the Jets

 

Its a must if they want to get to ten wins.    The Steelers game is a 50-50, so they have to take care of business this weekend, IMO...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

 

Could you IMAGINE if McDermott said something like that? Whooooooo people would be lighting their pitchforks on fire instead of the torches.

 

 

"These first eight games do not matter. It's not where we want to be, but it's where we are. And that's who our record is, so we have to own that."
--Freddie Kitchens on the #Browns 2-6 record

 

Yeah, probably we would overreact but I think Kitchens is just intending to say "we acknowledge we've sucked until now to be 2-6, but we're looking forward.  One week at a time, one opponent at a time, try to be 1-0 each week".  It's still kind of a bizarre way of putting it.

[thenorthremembers]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Browns are toast. 

 

Colts, Steelers, and maybe the Raiders are the bigger threat. Bills just have to win most of the games they should and steal one of the Baltimore/Pittsburgh games. 

 

Win this weekend and they'll make the playoffs, IMO. Lose and things could get complicated down the stretch. 

You're correct.   I honestly think the Bills need to get to 11 wins.   The Raiders and Colts should both be 10-6, and then you're relying on tie breakers. 

 

Thats why I say this weekend is such a big game.   You cant expect them to win the Ravens, Patriots, or Cowboys games, as such they need to beat the teams the teams they should beat.  Out of those teams I think the Browns are the most dangerous.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

TURRBL

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, cd1 said:

 

Perhaps the Browns are favored because the Bills are thought to have "Not Loss" rather than to have "Won" the games they have this year.

 

YES, there really is a difference!

 

In the first case, your luck will run out sooner or later.

 

In the second case, LUCK has nothing to do with it!

 

"Most NFL games are lost as opposed to won"

- Bill Belichick 

[dave mcbride]

41 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I said Cleveland is better in statistical categories on offense and close on defense

 

Total Offense: Browns- 19th, Bills-23rd  Passing Offense- Browns-17th, Bills 26th

Defense: Passing Browns 6th, Bills 3rd  Rushing- Browns 30th, Bills 19th

 

Given the Browns are a better passing team, but have a glaring weakness in defending the run, you need to keep their offense off the field and run the ball well.  Dont see where its a big wrong.

All due respect.  I think all the games outside of Patriots, Cowboys, and Ravens are must wins.   If the Colts, Raiders, or Browns get hot down the end of the season 10-6 may not get you there. 

Through week 8 (that is, not including this past week's game), the Browns were 26th in offensive DVOA and the Bills 24th: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff/2019

 

The Bills' defense (16th) is five slots better than than the Browns' D (21st) in DVOA too. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

 

The Bills likely got better in both categories this week and the Browns likely got worse. The updated numbers will be posted tomorrow. 

[dakrider]

18 hours ago, Pokebball said:

The Bills will have a few weeks of tape on Allen before Denver comes to town.  Allen won't have the success vs Buffalo like he did vs the Browns.

The reason Brandon Allen had success was primarily his receivers who beat their guys.  Go look at his 2 TD's, they were both mostly on the receiver.  

Broncos have some great playmakers. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

I said Cleveland is better in statistical categories on offense and close on defense

 

Total Offense: Browns- 19th, Bills-23rd  Passing Offense- Browns-17th, Bills 26th

Defense: Passing Browns 6th, Bills 3rd  Rushing- Browns 30th, Bills 19th

 

Given the Browns are a better passing team, but have a glaring weakness in defending the run, you need to keep their offense off the field and run the ball well.  Dont see where its a big wrong.

All due respect.  I think all the games outside of Patriots, Cowboys, and Ravens are must wins.   If the Colts, Raiders, or Browns get hot down the end of the season 10-6 may not get you there. 

I just don’t see any game as a “must win”, outside of division games due to the division race, until it’s one that you need to win or you are out of the playoffs. Especially since the Browns are contending more for the 1st overall pick than the WC race so head to head won’t be an issue either.  Different way of looking at it I guess. 

[Solomon Grundy]

Tre better get his rest because I feel the Browns are gonna force feed OBJ this week. Maybe we can get a Jerry Hughes/Ed Oliver break out game to get some pass rush on Baker