Fumbles and Facts

[Pokebball]

49 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Lol, of course it has an impact.  Its a lost down and most of the time lost yardage as well. 

 

Recovering a fumble IS ONLY a chance.   There is no guarantee you are recovering it. 

Honestly, every single play in football is a chance then, right?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Not to beat a dead horse but if the fumble happens on a sack the yards were lost whether he fumbled or not unless it's one of those weird plays where the ball bounces backwards another 5 - 10 yards.  In BOTH fumbles Allen had that we recovered against the Eagles he was sacked and lost the ball.  The yards & downs lost were pretty much the same whether he fumbled or not.

 

Valid point, but there's also the point that it is, over time, 50/50 who recovers - maybe less if Allen was moving away from the LOS or scrambling since he may be the only Bills player near enough to scrum for the ball.  And if the defense recovers, a lost fumble in our territory can be particularly devastating since at best, it gives the opponent excellent field position and at worst, it may be a fumble-6.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Unrecovered fumbles are the ONLY fumbles that matter.

Period.

If the ball doesn't change hands, it's NOT a turnover.

 

Agree with the last.

 

Don't agree with the first, since a recovered fumble has a strong element of chance as to whether it became an unrecovered fumble.

 

As the data I presented elsewhere show, it's not as big a deal as some are making it out to be - there are a lot of QB in the vicinity of Allen on the "most fumbles" list, including a number of QB where ball security has not been raised as a red flag such as Minshew and Jones, and well-regarded vets just 1-2 lower.

 

On the other hand, it's certainly something that can and should be improved, because some run-threat QB such as Jackson and Wilson have half the fumbles that Allen has.

 

[Boca BIlls]

2 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

There is a narrative that the Bills are somehow suffering because of Josh Allen fumbling an inordinate amount of times.   This narrative is not supported by facts. 

 

The Bills have lost 4 fumbles so far this season.  On eight teams have fewer than 4.   Five teams have four fumbles lost.  19 Teams have 5 or more fumbles lost. 

I don't watch every NFL game. But Dabolls offense has more slow developing plays and more designed QB runs that any other team that I have seen this year.  So he is going to get hit with the ball in his hand more often than other QBs.  

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=086&type=Rushing

 

Mixture of fumbles, Int's, and lack of scoring to make up for it.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

We're toward the lower end of middle in this category.  Probably not as bad as it could be.

 

Too many times Josh has to hold on to the ball and wait for the play to develop, which results in him having to run as the protection breaks down.  I have to believe this prolonged hold the ball and wait is a combination of several things, Daboll's play design being just one of them.  The designed QB runs are too much, though; just asking for trouble.

The problem is clearly Dumbell.  I used to think Josh was just holding the ball too long.  Now I realize it's those ridiculously long plays Dufus draws up. He's not only stunting his development but he's risking injury. I know McD takes a little longer than he should to react to a problem (Peterman, Zay, Peko etc) but eventually he figures it out.  I see the same fate for Daboll.....

[billsfan_34]

20 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Unrecovered fumbles are the ONLY fumbles that matter.

 

Period.

 

If the ball doesn't change hands, it's NOT a turnover.

 

Your missing the point- it most often turns into a loss of down, no gain, and undesirable situations- oh the basics of football.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, billsfan_34 said:

Your missing the point- it most often turns into a loss of down, no gain, and undesirable situations- oh the basics of football.

 

If that was true 100% of the time, you'd be right. But it's not. It's a situation that CAN be recovered from.

 

Unlike say, an actual turnover.

 

Yeah, like the basics of football.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Valid point, but there's also the point that it is, over time, 50/50 who recovers - maybe less if Allen was moving away from the LOS or scrambling since he may be the only Bills player near enough to scrum for the ball.  And if the defense recovers, a lost fumble in our territory can be particularly devastating since at best, it gives the opponent excellent field position and at worst, it may be a fumble-6.

 

That's fair and if Allen keeps fumbling then the TO's will pile up.  At this point and taking into consideration the circumstances I'm not worried.  If between now and the end of next season he's fumbled over 20 times then it is a problem.

 

My annoyance is with those who are using the fumbles as just another way to beat on Allen.  And when they put out stats insinuating that all his fumbles = TO's then it gets my back up.  I love honest and fair critiques of Allen's play (like you and others offer).  I tend to view his development through rose colored glasses so it's refreshing to get a straight read on how he's doing. 

 

So much depends on his being the guy so as a Bills fan I'm rooting for him big time.  Bottom line is that the fumbles are something to keep and eye on but folks shouldn't be over reacting to them.

 

 

 

 

[billsfan_34]

19 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

If that was true 100% of the time, you'd be right. But it's not. It's a situation that CAN be recovered from.

 

Unlike say, an actual turnover.

 

Yeah, like the basics of football.

 

Lol ok lets fumble 16 times and hope for the best

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, billsfan_34 said:

Lol ok lets fumble 16 times and hope for the best

 

Anyone asking for that, 34?

 

Nah.

 

But is it too much to ask for a reduction in over-emotive hyperbolic whining?

 

[Happy]

19 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The problem is clearly Dumbell.  I used to think Josh was just holding the ball too long.  Now I realize it's those ridiculously long plays Dufus draws up. He's not only stunting his development but he's risking injury. I know McD takes a little longer than he should to react to a problem (Peterman, Zay, Peko etc) but eventually he figures it out.  I see the same fate for Daboll.....

 

I tend to agree that Daboll is the problem.  It could be that McD laid into Daboll after the loss last week causing him to adjust (i.e. simplify) his playbook for where the team is now, not where it will be two years from now.  McD is slow to fix a problem, as you pointed out player personnel wise, and not fixing a coaching problem reflects poorly on him.  Not to go too far off in a tangent, but McD's coaching/coordinator selection has been rather uninspiring; firing Daboll if he doesn't adjust may be necessary, but I shudder to think about McD's next horrible OC selection.  He's had two bites of the apple, I don't think he deserves a third.

[HOUSE]

Touch downs & Field goals are  good, fumbles & interceptions are bad. Do we really need to know more?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I tend to agree that Daboll is the problem.  It could be that McD laid into Daboll after the loss last week causing him to adjust (i.e. simplify) his playbook for where the team is now, not where it will be two years from now.  McD is slow to fix a problem, as you pointed out player personnel wise, and not fixing a coaching problem reflects poorly on him.  Not to go too far off in a tangent, but McD's coaching/coordinator selection has been rather uninspiring; firing Daboll if he doesn't adjust may be necessary, but I shudder to think about McD's next horrible OC selection.  He's had two bites of the apple, I don't think he deserves a third.

 

It is possible that McD may be able to address it without throwing it out, once he decides he needs to.  He took over playcalling on D for Frazier for a bit then apparently handed it back and the results have been pretty good.

 

McDermott strikes me as a guy who may be able to convey a message to Daboll in a way that might get across without raising hackles ("as a DC, this is the pattern I'm seeing in the plays you're running, and these are some alternatives that would pose more of a challenge for me to gameplan against") and perhaps lay out some structure that Daboll could work within.

 

I think where McDermott lowers the boom is when a guy totally makes him look bad in public, then refuses to own it.  I think that's what Rico Dennison did by pounding the table to start Peterman, and the fundamental reason why he got the boot. 

[billsfan_34]

10 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Anyone asking for that, 34?

 

Nah.

 

But is it too much to ask for a reduction in over-emotive hyperbolic whining?

 

It isn’t hyperbole- it is efficient and better situational football to not fumble in general. Go Bills have fun today!!! 

[Happy]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It is possible that McD may be able to address it without throwing it out, once he decides he needs to.  He took over playcalling on D for Frazier for a bit then apparently handed it back and the results have been pretty good.

 

McDermott strikes me as a guy who may be able to convey a message to Daboll in a way that might get across without raising hackles ("as a DC, this is the pattern I'm seeing in the plays you're running, and these are some alternatives that would pose more of a challenge for me to gameplan against") and perhaps lay out some structure that Daboll could work within.

 

I think where McDermott lowers the boom is when a guy totally makes him look bad in public, then refuses to own it.  I think that's what Rico Dennison did by pounding the table to start Peterman, and the fundamental reason why he got the boot. 

 

Agree with this point.  I think it all depends on where Daboll takes his play calling and offensive design/playbook from here.  Last week the Bills looked stupid on offense (on all three phases, really) and McD knew it.  I'm sure he communicated that to Daboll in *some* fashion.  Daboll's reply is....  We shall see over the next few weeks.

[Bookie Man]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes.  And to his credit, he seems to have knocked that off.  Also one was a fumbled exchange with Morse and they haven't had one since (knock wood)

It happened last week lol! Granted the guy he was stiff arming wasn't the one who knocked it out though. Either way, I'd rather he not try and take on these big dudes like that. 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

The second part implies that a number of pass plays take too long to develop, which can lead to problems.  It is only a matter of time before the ball gets knocked out of Josh's hands during a prolonged sit in the pocket pass play.

 

Are the WRs not getting open fast enough, or are their routes not quite correct?  Is Josh not trusting what he sees, or doesn't understand what he sees (including blitzes)?  Is Daboll's play designs not correct for where Josh, and the offense, are at this particular point?  Probably a combination of all three, though the last question is most likely more prevalent. 

 

I have a real question with this. I go through the all 22 for every game a and I have seen a quite a number of plays where Josh drops back in the pocket, sets up, and has to wait on his receivers. There are so many instances where it appears, at game speed, that the receivers are open and Allen just isn't seeing them or throwing the ball. However, when you slow it down, it is clear that they are deeper developing plays and the receivers are not looking for the ball yet.

 

Then, much of the time, one of two things happens at that point: (1) the protection starts to break down and Allen is forced to move out of the pocket, or (2) Allen doesn't trust his linemen, when they are giving him the time, and he starts to move out of the pocket when he doesn't need to. Either way, these are the times he is most susceptible to the turnover.

 

The one thing he is doing exceptionally well this year is working the field within 15 yards of the LOS. Just keep the play designs simple and, for the most part,  where his strengths are at the moment.

Edited November 3, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Yup fumbles don't matter. Except when they are barely recovered and lose a first down with the lost yardage.