Fumbles and Facts

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That sounds horrible except that last season he started 11 games.  So it's a fractional difference.

 

 

 

The fraction is 1.00.  He has 100% of the fumbles he had in 11 starts and part of a 12th game.  He has reached that in 7 games.

[CincyBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

if you recover a fumble it has no impact.  The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling.  Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling.  And recovering fumbles is not only chance. 

 

I get what you're saying PlayoffsPlease.  I'm scratching my head at all the posters claiming that fumbles lead to lost yardage.  That's ONLY true if while moving around Allen loses a fumble by simply dropping the ball.  Which happens in the NFL though very rarely. 

 

Every Allen fumble I can remember this season has been a FORCED fumble.  That is if Allen doesn't fumble on the play we still lose yardage on a sack.  That's why Allen fumbles recovered by the Bills amount to nothing.   The ones that hurt are the ones that we lose.

 

Now I get that the more you fumble the more there's a chance we lose the ball.  But this emphasis on Allen fumbles seems like a new way to bash him now that he seems to have (knock on wood) gotten more careful in NOT throwing INT's.

 

 

[iinii]

13 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

if you recover a fumble it has no impact.  The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling.  Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling.  And recovering fumbles is not only chance. 

Recovering a few make does have an impact since it keeps the other team from getting the ball. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

 

This is a prime example of a misleading stat.  Allen has only lost 4 fumbles and that's the ONLY stat that matters.   Adding in Allen fumbles recovered by the Bills is just your way of making the numbers look bad for Allen which is disingenuous.  Last week Wendt fumbled when he was sacked but the ball bounced back to him.  Net result was NO IMPACT on the game!

 

Funny how the other Allen who QB's the Panthers was getting kudos for NOT throwing an INT, until of course he threw 3 in one game, but most people didn't realize that the guy has LOST something like 4 or 5 fumbles.  Panther fans joke about it on their board.

 

Fumbles happen when a QB like Allen tries to make plays and is executing a game plan that put's the ball in his hand in risky situations a lot.

 

Well, sometimes to the bolded.  He had one fumble on a center/QB exchange 1st game after not playing with Morse at all during preseason.  He had another when he tried to hold off a charging defender with a stiff arm and the ball waving in his right arm instead of tucking it.

 

I can't agree that fumbles lost is the only stat that matters.  Like a sack, a fumble recovered represents a lost down at best, and often lost yards.

But the thing is if one is going to look at total fumbles, one has to look at the same thing across the league.  And when one does, the Bills are currently tied for 16th, or smack in the middle of the NFL.  Not good, but not horrible either.

[CincyBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

If you recover a fumble behind the LOS -- which is the usual case with fumbles by QBs trying to pass -- it most certainly has an impact, sir.   It's a negative play that makes it harder for the team to keep the chains moving.

 

This ASSUMES that had he not fumbled Allen would have broken the tackle and either thrown the ball away, run for + yards or hit a throw.  How many times has that happened on an Allen fumble?  If he's being tackled 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage and in trying to get away fumbles how is that LOST yardage any worse then his simply being sacked?  Now if we lose the ball that is BAD. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, sometimes to the bolded.  He had one fumble on a center/QB exchange 1st game after not playing with Morse at all during preseason.  He had another when he tried to hold off a charging defender with a stiff arm and the ball waving in his right arm instead of tucking it.

 

I can't agree that fumbles lost is the only stat that matters.  Like a sack, a fumble recovered represents a lost down at best, and often lost yards.

But the thing is if one is going to look at total fumbles, one has to look at the same thing across the league.  And when one does, the Bills are currently tied for 16th, or smack in the middle of the NFL.  Not good, but not horrible either.

 

Not to beat a dead horse but if the fumble happens on a sack the yards were lost whether he fumbled or not unless it's one of those weird plays where the ball bounces backwards another 5 - 10 yards.  In BOTH fumbles Allen had that we recovered against the Eagles he was sacked and lost the ball.  The yards & downs lost were pretty much the same whether he fumbled or not.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, NC Book said:

I think he gets himself in trouble when starts trying to stiff arm 270 lb + D lineman. I know at least 2 of his fumbles happened when he did that lol. 

 

Yes.  And to his credit, he seems to have knocked that off.  Also one was a fumbled exchange with Morse and they haven't had one since (knock wood)

[Boatdrinks]

I hate the term “ narrative” being used as much as it is on the board. Makes football seem like politics. Anyway, all fumbles are bad. Doesn’t matter which player is carrying the ball; they must maintain possession. As pointed out by others here, recovering a fumble is more chance than art form. Things tend to even out over time, so continuing to fumble will probably equate to losing more of them than they have so far. Allen probably carries the ball more on designed runs than most QBs, so he’s likely to have more fumbles over the course of a season. Recently , one opponent noted that Allen carries the ball in his right hand when headed to the sideline and successful stripped it from him. The recent fumble on the designed sweep vs Eagles was huge, and a terrible decision by Daboll imo. There are certain situations and positions on the field where you’d prefer an RB toting the ball than any QB. Bottom line, Allen needs to not fumble if he’s going to be entrusted running it so often. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

There is a narrative that the Bills are somehow suffering because of Josh Allen fumbling an inordinate amount of times.   This narrative is not supported by facts. 

 

The Bills have lost 4 fumbles so far this season.  On eight teams have fewer than 4.   Five teams have four fumbles lost.  19 Teams have 5 or more fumbles lost. 

I don't watch every NFL game. But Dabolls offense has more slow developing plays and more designed QB runs that any other team that I have seen this year.  So he is going to get hit with the ball in his hand more often than other QBs.  

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=086&type=Rushing

 

 

Recovering fumbles basically is a coin flip over the course of a long period of time. Various studies have shown there is no skill to recovering fumbles and all teams regress to the mean over time until they are pretty much at 50/50.

 

Now stating that, there is nothing that says for a period of time like a given season, the fumbles will be recovered on a 50/50 basis. Just like if you flip a coin 16 times, you likely aren't going to have 8 heads and 8 tails very often. But as you flip it 100 times, 200 times, 500 times, etc you start seeing it trend towards 50/50...same with fumble recoveries.

 

Meaning if you continue to fumble at the rate Allen is fumbling other teams will start recovering the ball more, that's just the way it works.  So the BAD part is that you are putting the ball on the ground and causing a negative play to happen regardless of who recovers it in most cases as the ball usually is further back than it would be if you held onto it.

Edited November 3, 2019 by matter2003

[CincyBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Misleading??? 

 

He's fumbled it 8 times...nothing misleading about it.   Then factor in Ints, and he's looking completely wreckless with the ball...which he is. 

 

You shouldn't be averaging 1 int and 1 fumble a game as a starting Qb...that horrendous. 

 

Of course it's misleading.  You listed 7 INT's and 8 Fumbles like they were equally bad events.  The HONEST way to show the information would have been that Allen has thrown 7 INT's & LOST 4 fumbles. 

 

Fumbles that are recovered by the offense are not the same as fumbles lost.  If we throw a screen to Singletary today that gains 50 yards and he fumbles at the end but Beasley was hustling down the field and recovers the fumble is that the same as Singletary losing the fumble?  I don't think so.  I'm not sure why this is so hard to understand.

 

There are plenty of legit reasons to criticize Allen's QB play and he must improve his game.  But focusing on his TOTAL fumbles in an offense where he is asked to do more with the ball then many QB's and when the NFL stats clearly show the Bills DO NOT have  a problem with fumbles is misleading.  It reflects an agenda IMO.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

Fumbles are bad!

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

yes it is.  

 

Increasing fumbling leads to chance causing more turnovers.

 

This is a pretty straightforward concept.

It is not only chance.  For example when the qb fumbles the snap from center the offense recovers over 80 percent of the time. Not fifty as pure chance would dictate. 

[Happy]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think his fumbles have typically come when he's holding onto the ball waiting for the play to develop.

 

Two as I recall were on blitzes that were not picked up.  On the first anyway, he tried to stiff-arm the defender and prolong the play.

One was a fumbled snap exchange between Morse and Allen the first game of the season, after not practicing much and not playing at all in preseason.

One was on that run play last week.

 

Thus far, your first sentence is true.  Josh usually ends up running as the protection breaks down and he has been better about sliding and not haphazardly trying to extend a play as of late.

 

My initial post contained two thoughts, first agreeing with the OP that Josh has not fumbled more than nineteen other teams.  The second part implies that a number of pass plays take too long to develop, which can lead to problems.  It is only a matter of time before the ball gets knocked out of Josh's hands during a prolonged sit in the pocket pass play.

 

Are the WRs not getting open fast enough, or are their routes not quite correct?  Is Josh not trusting what he sees, or doesn't understand what he sees (including blitzes)?  Is Daboll's play designs not correct for where Josh, and the offense, are at this particular point?  Probably a combination of all three, though the last question is most likely more prevalent.  This is essentially the first year of a new offense and, IMO, Daboll is making it more complex than it needs to be.  The offense really needs to be simplified - quick, short passes; more running plays, especially getting Singletary involved; stop with the long developing pass plays and designed QB runs; stop with the cute stuff like the FB lining out wide since these fool no one.  I'm not convinced that everyone on offense is on the same page at this point.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is not only chance.  For example when the qb fumbles the snap from center the offense recovers over 80 percent of the time. Not fifty as pure chance would dictate. 

 

Well Damn, we came out on the losing 20% on that one.

[vincec]

He’s tied for second in the NFL for most fumbles by a player. To claim that this isn’t a problem seems strange to me.

Edited November 3, 2019 by vincec

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is not only chance.  For example when the qb fumbles the snap from center the offense recovers over 80 percent of the time. Not fifty as pure chance would dictate. 

how many of those has he had?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Thus far, your first sentence is true.  Josh usually ends up running as the protection breaks down and he has been better about sliding and not haphazardly trying to extend a play as of late.

 

My initial post contained two thoughts, first agreeing with the OP that Josh has not fumbled more than nineteen other teams.  The second part implies that a number of pass plays take too long to develop, which can lead to problems.  It is only a matter of time before the ball gets knocked out of Josh's hands during a prolonged sit in the pocket pass play.

 

Are the WRs not getting open fast enough, or are their routes not quite correct?  Is Josh not trusting what he sees, or doesn't understand what he sees (including blitzes)?  Is Daboll's play designs not correct for where Josh, and the offense, are at this particular point?  Probably a combination of all three, though the last question is most likely more prevalent.  This is essentially the first year of a new offense and, IMO, Daboll is making it more complex than it needs to be.  The offense really needs to be simplified - quick, short passes; more running plays, especially getting Singletary involved; stop with the long developing pass plays and designed QB runs; stop with the cute stuff like the FB lining out wide since these fool no one.  I'm not convinced that everyone on offense is on the same page at this point.

 

I was thinking about this the other day.  Small point that it's the 2nd year of the offense for most of the position coaches and for Josh Allen, which does make a difference, but I'm not sure how much.

 

John Brown was quoted earlier as saying this is the most complicated offense he's ever played in. 

 

Daboll runs an Erhardt Perkins offensive system, which classically as used by the Giants during their Superbowl runs and by the Patriots, depends upon the skill players and QB all reading the defense the same way and anticipating/running the same route variations.  A couple of times to the eye, it appears that Beasley has run a different route than Allen was expecting.  At least once on a missed throw, John Brown has said he was running "the wrong route".  A couple of times in pressers Josh Allen has referenced "miscommunication about routes" as something the Bills O needs to clean up.  There are other instances I've seen in games.

 

Longwinded way to say, I think you may very much have a point that the offense is at a point where players are having to think too much and should be simplified, but at the same time rendered less transparent to the opposing defense in terms of overall intention to run/pass

 

When Chan Gailey was here running an E-P offense, he pretty much said he simplified it the first year and added on to it each year thereafter.  It was actually more effective, with the players we had, in its more simplified form.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well Damn, we came out on the losing 20% on that one.

that was 1 of the 8.

 

 

It’s not clear why fumbles for one player are not an issue, but a single fumble for another deems him not to be trusted with the ball

Edited November 3, 2019 by Mr. WEO

[Nextmanup]

All fumbles are bad, not just lost fumbles.

Every time we fumble we increase the odds of losing a fumble.

 

The more fumbles you have, the more likely you are going to lose one or more.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, vincec said:

He’s tied for second in the NFL for most fumbles by a player. To claim that this isn’t a problem seems strange to me.

 

You might mention that the worst is the much-praised rookie Gardner Minshew, and Allen is tied with the much-praised rookie Daniel Jones, and one ahead of Kirk Cousins who is widely regarded as having a pretty good year.

 

In fact there are a lot of QBs down at that end of the list.  2 more than Watson, Goff, Keenum etc. 

 

To a large extent, it reflects the fact that the QB's job involves holding the ball with his arm extended to fling it or transitioning it to that position, neither of which are high-ball-security ops. 

 

What gives Allen a couple more are a fumbled center exchange and a couple of attempts to stiff-arm onrushing DLmen instead of curling up around the ball - the first was a one-off and the second seems to be something he's ceased.

 

It's a problem that should be improved AND it's not as big a deal as some are making it out to be.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

55 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Josh himself has fumbled 16 times in 18 starts. 4 resulted in turnovers. Also, fumbling on a play when not turned over normally results in a loss of down/punt/change in play calling. Lets not sugar coat JA fumbles compared to an entire team. 

^this^

 

Unrecovered fumbles are the ONLY fumbles that matter.

 

Period.

 

If the ball doesn't change hands, it's NOT a turnover.