PlayoffsPlease Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 There is a narrative that the Bills are somehow suffering because of Josh Allen fumbling an inordinate amount of times. This narrative is not supported by facts. The Bills have lost 4 fumbles so far this season. On eight teams have fewer than 4. Five teams have four fumbles lost. 19 Teams have 5 or more fumbles lost. I don't watch every NFL game. But Dabolls offense has more slow developing plays and more designed QB runs that any other team that I have seen this year. So he is going to get hit with the ball in his hand more often than other QBs. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=086&type=Rushing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I think he gets himself in trouble when starts trying to stiff arm 270 lb + D lineman. I know at least 2 of his fumbles happened when he did that lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 We're toward the lower end of middle in this category. Probably not as bad as it could be. Too many times Josh has to hold on to the ball and wait for the play to develop, which results in him having to run as the protection breaks down. I have to believe this prolonged hold the ball and wait is a combination of several things, Daboll's play design being just one of them. The designed QB runs are too much, though; just asking for trouble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said: We're toward the lower end of middle in this category. Probably not as bad as it could be. Too many times Josh has to hold on to the ball and wait for the play to develop, which results in him having to run as the protection breaks down. I have to believe this prolonged hold the ball and wait is a combination of several things, Daboll's play design being just one of them. The designed QB runs are too much, though; just asking for trouble. But the net result is the team has fewer fumbles than the majority of teams in the NFL. It is just not a problem for the Bills. The Bills big gaping problems are ineffective game planning on offense, lack of pass rush and getting crushed in the last two games in the center of the D-line. People ranting about Allen fumbling or taking care of the ball often don't seem to realize all teams have turnovers. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 You are missing a couple points. Fumbling is a problem. Recovering a fumble is mostly chance. That’s why interceptions and not fumbles correlate to win/loss record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwistofFate Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Throw in his Ints and the picture becomes much clearer. 7 ints and 8 fumbles....in 7 games. The main problem is the offense is no where near strong enough to overcome those mistakes and he places the defense in horrible positions to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said: We're toward the lower end of middle in this category. Probably not as bad as it could be. Too many times Josh has to hold on to the ball and wait for the play to develop, which results in him having to run as the protection breaks down. I have to believe this prolonged hold the ball and wait is a combination of several things, Daboll's play design being just one of them. The designed QB runs are too much, though; just asking for trouble. I don't think his fumbles have typically come when he's holding onto the ball waiting for the play to develop. Two as I recall were on blitzes that were not picked up. On the first anyway, he tried to stiff-arm the defender and prolong the play. One was a fumbled snap exchange between Morse and Allen the first game of the season, after not practicing much and not playing at all in preseason. One was on that run play last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: There is a narrative that the Bills are somehow suffering because of Josh Allen fumbling an inordinate amount of times. This narrative is not supported by facts. The Bills have lost 4 fumbles so far this season. On eight teams have fewer than 4. Five teams have four fumbles lost. 19 Teams have 5 or more fumbles lost. I don't watch every NFL game. But Dabolls offense has more slow developing plays and more designed QB runs that any other team that I have seen this year. So he is going to get hit with the ball in his hand more often than other QBs. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=086&type=Rushing He has already, after 7 games, matched his season total for last year of 8 fumbles. Fumble recovery is mostly by chance, so of course it's an issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 (edited) I’m not disagreeing, but it’s not just the fumbles lost. It’s also the fumbles we recovered but put us in a crappy position, like 2nd and 17, or 3rd and 12. No idea how many we have recovered like that. I could go back to check my notes and detailed statistical analysis....if I did any of that..... Maybe someone who cares more or has a better memory can see how we look there. . Edited November 3, 2019 by Augie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said: There is a narrative that the Bills are somehow suffering because of Josh Allen fumbling an inordinate amount of times. This narrative is not supported by facts. The Bills have lost 4 fumbles so far this season. On eight teams have fewer than 4. Five teams have four fumbles lost. 19 Teams have 5 or more fumbles lost. I don't watch every NFL game. But Dabolls offense has more slow developing plays and more designed QB runs that any other team that I have seen this year. So he is going to get hit with the ball in his hand more often than other QBs. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=086&type=Rushing Josh himself has fumbled 16 times in 18 starts. 4 resulted in turnovers. Also, fumbling on a play when not turned over normally results in a loss of down/punt/change in play calling. Lets not sugar coat JA fumbles compared to an entire team. 1 minute ago, Augie said: I’m not disagreeing, but it’s not just the fumbles lost. It’s also the fumbles we recovered but put us in a crappy position, like 3rd and 12. No idea how many we have recovered like that. I could go back to check my notes and detailed statistical analysis....if I did any of that..... Maybe someone who cares more or has a better memory can see how we look there. ^this^ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: Throw in his Ints and the picture becomes much clearer. 7 ints and 8 fumbles....in 7 games. The main problem is the offense is no where near strong enough to overcome those mistakes and he places the defense in horrible positions to overcome. Agreed. I will add that even when QB fumbles aren't lost, they mostly result in lost yardage. Add to that sacks and then the too frequent penalties on the offense, especially the presnap ones and holding calls, and the offense has a lot of plays where they're behind the yard markers. That's hard for any team to overcome, but for a team that has no game breakers to make chunk plays, it's a prescription for offensive failure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: You are missing a couple points. Fumbling is a problem. Recovering a fumble is mostly chance. That’s why interceptions and not fumbles correlate to win/loss record. if you recover a fumble it has no impact. The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling. Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling. And recovering fumbles is not only chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, PlayoffsPlease said: if you recover a fumble it has no impact. The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling. Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling. And recovering fumbles is not only chance. It does have an impact its football 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: Throw in his Ints and the picture becomes much clearer. 7 ints and 8 fumbles....in 7 games. The main problem is the offense is no where near strong enough to overcome those mistakes and he places the defense in horrible positions to overcome. Here is a post I did in another thread giving some facts and comparisons: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwistofFate Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: if you recover a fumble it has no impact. The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling. Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling. And recovering fumbles is not only chance. Lol, of course it has an impact. Its a lost down and most of the time lost yardage as well. Recovering a fumble IS ONLY a chance. There is no guarantee you are recovering it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: He has already, after 7 games, matched his season total for last year of 8 fumbles. Fumble recovery is mostly by chance, so of course it's an issue. That sounds horrible except that last season he started 11 games. So it's a fractional difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: Throw in his Ints and the picture becomes much clearer. 7 ints and 8 fumbles....in 7 games. The main problem is the offense is no where near strong enough to overcome those mistakes and he places the defense in horrible positions to overcome. This is a prime example of a misleading stat. Allen has only lost 4 fumbles and that's the ONLY stat that matters. Adding in Allen fumbles recovered by the Bills is just your way of making the numbers look bad for Allen which is disingenuous. Last week Wendt fumbled when he was sacked but the ball bounced back to him. Net result was NO IMPACT on the game! Funny how the other Allen who QB's the Panthers was getting kudos for NOT throwing an INT, until of course he threw 3 in one game, but most people didn't realize that the guy has LOST something like 4 or 5 fumbles. Panther fans joke about it on their board. Fumbles happen when a QB like Allen tries to make plays and is executing a game plan that put's the ball in his hand in risky situations a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, PlayoffsPlease said: if you recover a fumble it has no impact. The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling. Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling. And recovering fumbles is not only chance. If you recover a fumble behind the LOS -- which is the usual case with fumbles by QBs trying to pass -- it most certainly has an impact, sir. It's a negative play that makes it harder for the team to keep the chains moving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: if you recover a fumble it has no impact. The results far this season have no unusual impact related to fumbling. Just to clear, the results so far this season have nothing to do with fumbling. And recovering fumbles is not only chance. yes it is. Increasing fumbling leads to chance causing more turnovers. This is a pretty straightforward concept. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwistofFate Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said: This is a prime example of a misleading stat. Allen has only lost 4 fumbles and that's the ONLY stat that matters. Adding in Allen fumbles recovered by the Bills is just your way of making the numbers look bad for Allen which is disingenuous. Last week Wendt fumbled when he was sacked but the ball bounced back to him. Net result was NO IMPACT on the game! Funny how the other Allen who QB's the Panthers was getting kudos for NOT throwing an INT, until of course he threw 3 in one game, but most people didn't realize that the guy has LOST something like 4 or 5 fumbles. Panther fans joke about it on their board. Fumbles happen when a QB like Allen tries to make plays and is executing a game plan that put's the ball in his hand in risky situations a lot. Misleading??? He's fumbled it 8 times...nothing misleading about it. Then factor in Ints, and he's looking completely wreckless with the ball...which he is. You shouldn't be averaging 1 int and 1 fumble a game as a starting Qb...that horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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