DVOA: #25

[Mikie2times]

8 hours ago, cwater10 said:

What was the DVOA of the 1990 Buffalo Bills vs that of the NY Giants?  How about the 1991 Bills vs Redskins?  How many rings do we really have?

 

DVOA had the Giants and Redskins beating us. 

 

This is a really disappointing response from the community on this thread. Not toward me, just toward an outright dismissal of the system that basically creates the Vegas lines and has the highest correlation toward winning % of any stat anywhere. This isn't Pro Football Focus. If you want to learn before you judge read below.  

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

4 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Is there somewhere I can DVOA applied to say the last 20 years and how successful it's predictions are? 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

 

Use the drop down menu and sort by year. 

[Coach Tuesday]

You can set your watch to the anti-science folks in this thread (and society generally).  You ALWAYS know who they are.  Always.

[jrober38]

The Bills are 5-2 and they're also not a very good team. You can win games and have a really good record without actually being a really good team. 

 

Our record alone doesn't make us a good team relative to other good teams, it just means we've won more games than we've lost.

 

I'll take the 5-2 record, but this team, particularly on offense, has a heck of a long way to go before anyone considers them a top team.

Edited October 31, 2019 by jrober38

[Shaw66]

17 hours ago, KzooMike said:

So much debate about how good we really are. It's indicative of every hot start we have had since the start of the playoff drought. Expectations rise and crash just as fast.

 

DVOA is disgustingly accurate KPI brought to you by Football Outsiders. It is to the NFL what KenPom is to College Basketball.

 

DVOA has us ranked 25th in the league with wins against, TEN 24th, NYG 26th, NYJ 30th, CIN 31st, and Miami 32nd. DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. That's not to turn this into a negative thread. We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. 

 

While I do believe we are accurately pegged on DVOA I also believe the way this team plays is designed to win swing games. Our defense is no bend and snap, ranking 2nd in the league in most third down attempts by offenses, 12th in 3rd down %, 3rd in yards per play Allowed, 5th in first downs per game, 5th in red zone attempts per game. Then dear gawd, 28th in RZ touchdown %. In sum, teams do not drive on us. We make that very difficult. If they do, they generally score touchdowns. Most of the league has below average QB play. So even getting in a position to impact our biggest weakness is not common. 

 

On the offensive side I will site one statistic. We rank first in the league in RZ TD scoring % and I put a lot of that on the very tangible impact of Josh Allen in the RZ. His ability to run, extend plays, and make very challenging throws (while seemingly improving his decision making) is all very abnormal in a condensed part of the field. But again, the way he plays, I see him being a Red Zone match up nightmare. He is also one of the few non franchise (current) QB's that seems to be a closer on the final drive.  

 

I think we will see the occasional dud on defense as better teams get deeper into the RZ. Just as we will see our offense struggle to ever reach the RZ and take advantage of it's best strength. In a league built with a lot of truly porous defenses and low quality QB play we will beat most the teams within 5-10 rankings of our DVOA that fit that description . End result is a Wild Card team and a chance at potentially winning a road playoff game. Prior to the year that would have been considered a smashing success. Even if we beat Philadelphia it was still far and away the most probable outcome as far as a road wild card team. Enjoy the ride guys. It's usually never as good or bad as it seems.        

I have a lot of confidence in the DVOA.   If it says 25, then the Bills might be 20, but not 15 or 10.   It's a well done stat, generally. 

 

Early in the season it is largely driven by their subjective view of teams, so it's less useful then.  I think at this time it still has some of that subjectivity to it, but it's based largely on this year's performance.   

 

Bills are improving, but they have plenty more to work on. 

[Socal-805]

10 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

So many people claiming to be fans desperate to prove this team, that's 5-2, is bad.

 

Fans.

 

Right.

 

 

 

The Bills beat the Jets by JETS by 1 point.

The Bills beat the Bengals by 4 points.

 

I mean COME ON.

 

What do you think is going to happen when the Bills play Dallas?

 

 

[GoBills808]

I see no logical reason to have the Titans ranked ahead of the Bills.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

The Bills beat the Jets by JETS by 1 point.

The Bills beat the Bengals by 4 points.

 

I mean COME ON.

 

What do you think is going to happen when the Bills play Dallas?

 

 

 

They may lose. But I FULLY expect them to beat the likes of Miami, NYJ, Cleveland and washington at a MINIMUM, and likely shittsburgh too.

Also, those same Jets beat the Cowboys, so...there's that.

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Joe in Winslow

[Franco_92]

9 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Data shows that data can show anything you want. The fancy stat boys treat it like a religion. We're 5-2, deal with it.

They treat it like a religion just as much as the other side buries their head in the sand and pretends the earth is flat.

Ie, both analogies are garbage ways of actually understanding the interesting intersection of data and sports applications, and the pros and cons of doing so. And framing it that way is useless and makes both sides look like morons. So congrats 

[TwistofFate]

I just find it funny how everyone who isn't drinking Kool-aid and is critical of certain aspects of the team have an "agenda."

 

Everyone enjoys being 5-2 and having winning records, but there are legitimate questions and concerns about the team regardless of the record.  We aren't exactly out there dominating teams or winning against quality opponents.  The lack of signatures wins and domination of lesser opponents suggests we are paper champs.

 

IMO, we are a middle of the pack team who had the ball bounce our way quite a few times this year.

[Socal-805]

11 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

They may lose. But I FULLY expect them to beat the likes of Miami, NYJ, Cleveland and washington at a MINIMUM, and likely shittsburgh too.

Also, those same Jets beat the Cowboys, so...there's that.

 

 

 

 

Yes.

 

Well, Philly just wacked Buffalo running all over them, and Dallas wacked Philly by running all over them, so I am not anticipating a victory - sadly.

 

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Yes.

 

Well, Philly just wacked Buffalo running all over them, and Dallas wacked Philly by running all over them, so I am not anticipating a victory - sadly.

 

 

 

 

 

Right. Well, you choose to be a downer. You do you.

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I just find it funny how everyone who isn't drinking Kool-aid and is critical of certain aspects of the team have an "agenda."

 

Everyone enjoys being 5-2 and having winning records, but there are legitimate questions and concerns about the team regardless of the record.  We aren't exactly out there dominating teams or winning against quality opponents.  The lack of signatures wins and domination of lesser opponents suggests we are paper champs.

 

IMO, we are a middle of the pack team who had the ball bounce our way quite a few times this year.

DVOA suggests we are one of the worst teams in the league.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

DVOA suggests we are one of the worst teams in the league.

 

Which makes me question DVOA, given the fact that we're what, second best record in the AFC?

 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Which makes me question DVOA, given the fact that we're what, second best record in the AFC?

 

Correct, with our two losses to the Pats and Eagles coming against their 2nd and 12th ranked teams, respectively.

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct, with our two losses to the Pats and Eagles coming against their 2nd and 12th ranked teams, respectively.

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

DVOA suggests we are one of the worst teams in the league.

Who did we beat, how did we beat them and was it convincing? 

 

You all just keep looking at 5-2, 5-2, 5-2...its great...but you fail to take into consideration the quality of teams we played and how we performed in the win.  DVOA actually looks at those metrics.  Its not just looking at wins and losses. 

 

This is a middle of the pack team. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

What do you think is going to happen when the Bills play Dallas?

 

Oh come on. I almost typed out a whole long post comparing scores from this year, i.e. Dallas getting blown out by the Jets. But if you've watched more than a year of football you should know this stuff. I shouldn't need to hold your hand. This is right up there with "teams with more rushing yards win games more, therefore rush offense is more important than pass offense." I think you're smarter than this.

[Nextmanup]

I think we win 11 games if things go well, but at least 10 if they don't.

 

It's easily possible to drop a game we should win and end up with those 10 wins...but anything less would mean seriously screwing something up.

 

My concern is what happens to us in that first playoff game.

If the season ended today, we go to KC and get killed.  If we somehow find a way to beat KC on the road, we would be rewarded by playing in Foxborough the following week.

 

 

15 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Who did we beat, how did we beat them and was it convincing? 

 

You all just keep looking at 5-2, 5-2, 5-2...its great...but you fail to take into consideration the quality of teams we played and how we performed in the win.  DVOA actually looks at those metrics.  Its not just looking at wins and losses. 

 

This is a middle of the pack team. 

 

 

Wait a minute.  You mean this adopts a complex, nuanced analysis and isn't just a glaring black and white generalization!?

 

You can see how this would create a lot of problems for a large number of the folks who participate here.

 

Most folks here like things dumbed down to simple, easily understood extremes.

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Who did we beat, how did we beat them and was it convincing? 

 

You all just keep looking at 5-2, 5-2, 5-2...its great...but you fail to take into consideration the quality of teams we played and how we performed in the win.  DVOA actually looks at those metrics.  Its not just looking at wins and losses. 

 

This is a middle of the pack team. 

 

 

Again: this metric says the Bills are one of the 7 worst teams in the league. That’s not ‘middle of the pack’. 
 

And I’d be willing to bet you have no idea how DVOA is calculated.

[TwistofFate]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Again: this metric says the Bills are one of the 7 worst teams in the league. That’s not ‘middle of the pack’. 
 

And I’d be willing to bet you have no idea how DVOA is calculated.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

 

Not that complex to understand.  We've faced terrible teams all year, we haven't had any convincing or dominant wins over any of them. 

 

Its no wonder we are ranked where we are. 

 

Multiple ints, fumbles and incompletions against the weakest defenses in the league will help drop your DVOA score in a hurry. 

 

This is were Allen ranks compared to his counterparts... 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

Edited October 31, 2019 by TwistofFate

[billsfan89]

I think the Bills are a somewhat "soft" 5-2. The Jets and Titans kickers could be viewed as having gifted those games to the Bills. The Bengals and Dolphins are horrid teams that the Bills had to make comebacks on. They played the Patriots tough no small task even in a one possession loss. The Bills also took care of the Giants fairly easily. But the Bills did get smacked by the Eagles in their other loss. 

 

Overall in the NFL you are what your record says you are and more often than not if you win the games you are supposed to win you are going to finish with a winning record (especially with this teams schedule.) The Way I look at it is if the Bills can win 3 out of the next 4 they will be set up to win 10 games which is good enough for a playoff spot. 

 

10 games plus a playoff game would be an excellent way for the culture and team confidence to improve. The Bills are maneuvered enough cap wise to take care of their own talent via extensions and add a piece or two to the existing roster. 

 

I see no reason why the Bills couldn't take care of key players like Milano, White, and Dawkins to new deals while also grabbing an elite pass rusher and maybe another starting caliber piece via free agency. They can then add a WR and a RT via the draft to bolster the offense while further loading up on depth via the back and middle portions of the draft.