Golden*Wheels Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 The record is what the record is. Thank goodness. I'd have PAID for 5-2 after 7 games. But, IF you were a fan of one of the 31 other teams, what would your opinion of this team be? Take in the counter view as if you were a Browns fan or a (ugh) Jets fan. AND if I was a fan of one of those 31 other teams, I would say we're a team that can lose to absolutely anybody, and beat almost anybody, but that we are still a big step down from the top tier of the AFC. I'd view us a pretty unbalanced squad (D to O) and if somebody asked me if the QB really scares me....I'd have to say no, he really doesn't. If I was a Baltimore fan looking at a home playoff game vs us on Wildcard Weekend....I'd feel pretty confident. I'd say, we're still a team that is not ready for primetime, so to speak. Still, near the top of the 2nd tier of AFC teams...that's progress, and hopefully that arc keeps bending up. I ain't complaining! 3
Apocalypse Nuts Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 DVOA as in... ? Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo Doo...doo ”When there’s something going on you must whip it... ? 1
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: it does not GUARANTEE wins, but it is a good projection of how teams are performing. I use his stats a ton in playing my moneylines, and i must say i am having a great year so far. i would not say they are disgustingly accurate, but they do help to form a picture. Over time these things start to play out to form. Think of it as flipping a coin..stats say it should come out 50/50...but sometimes it can go 8 straight one way...but over 100 flips will most likely come back to expected results similar to this, in a sense: https://community.fangraphs.com/a-brief-analysis-of-predictive-pitching-metrics/ 1
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Yeah that's it, bury your head in the sand, typical... Would you not be happy with 7 wins and 9 losses?
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Would you not be happy with 7 wins and 9 losses? Who would be happy with that finish? 1
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: If they get blown out by Dallas, Baltimore, and NE while getting to 11-5/10-6, you’ll have a sense of who they really are. We already played the Patriots and we didn't get blown out. 1
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Who would be happy with that finish? Well, Im fansince88 and that is who I am. You're 7n9 so......
JESSEFEFFER Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) FO, 538 and Sagarin will all have them middle of the pack or worse until they beat some team they consider to be good. Of the remaining games on their schedule that's the Ravens, Cowboys and Patriots. Beating the other teams does not move the needle much. The Eagles loss hurt their ranking way more than beating any of the next 4 will help so it won't change much anytime soon. Go ahead and get to 9 and 2 or 8 and 3, let the offense improve and see where this thing goes. I suggest we just enjoy the ride. Bebe Rexha Sings About the Ride Edited October 31, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER 2
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, HappyDays said: We already played the Patriots and we didn't get blown out. I’ll bet you some money that they get blown out in NE. The odds would definitely be on my side. FO’s doesn’t predict every outcome correctly anyway. Look, I fully expect the Bills to win 10 and maybe 11 games, but they aren’t that good. Don’t get me wrong—I love the fact that they have a bizarrely creampuff schedule.
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Well, Im fansince88 and that is who I am. You're 7n9 so...... I've been a fan longer than you.
Wayne Arnold Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 The “but we’re 5-2 everything is awesome!!!” responses in this thread look exactly like responses to rationally skeptical posts I saw in 2008 and 2011. 4
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: I mean, why is DVOA “disgustingly accurate?” Apparently it’s not if it predicts the bills at 3-4 when, in real life, they’re 5-2. I am not anti-analyics. Far from it. But these numbers need to, at some point, be predictive and they dont seem to be. Call it an outlier maybe, but there’s only so many outliers until the model starts breaking down I believe the 3-4 prediction would be if they played league average opponents. It’s just saying what we all know, the Bills have had an easy schedule and still struggle in each win. They are still wins and they can stack many more this month. 2
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I’ll bet you some money that they get blown out in NE. The odds would definitely be on my side. FO’s doesn’t predict every outcome correctly anyway. I'll be surprised if we get blown out. Since McDermott got here we've always played New England close. The NFL is a matchup league. DVOA does a very good job, probably as good as any statistic can, at measuring the quality of NFL teams. But it doesn't properly account for matchups. I had the Eagles game pegged as a loss because their weakness - pass defense - didn't match up with our team's strength. We couldnt take advantage of their weakness. The Patriots are the opposite. Their strength on defense is pass defense. That doesn't hurt our team as bad as it does other teams. Their strength on offense is passing the ball. Our defense matches up well with that. I expect we will lose that game by a TD or less.
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 10 hours ago, KzooMike said: We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. With all due respect, Babe Ruth had to actually swing the bat in order to deliver on his "called shot", so that may not be the most accurate description for a fan predicting his team will make the play offs.
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: I've been a fan longer than you. Great! But I would use the nme 19n0. Seems more optimistic and fan like. Edited October 31, 2019 by fansince88
HereComesTheReignAgain Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said: Its funny. Last year when DVOA had the Bills defense ranked as one of the best, everyone agreed. This year they rank near the bottom and now most think data like this means little. Those of you upset or disagreeing with the ranking probably come from a time when this stuff didn't exist. So all that mattered was the end score and if they won. Doesn't matter how they got there or if how bad they looked. That is still all that matters. Does the NFL award wins or playoff positions for DVOA rankings?
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Great! But I would use the nme 19n0. Seems more optimistic and fan like. That's cool, however in the end, being optimistic or pessimistic really has no bearing on how your favorite sports team will ultimately play.
Rocket94 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Green Lightning said: Data shows that data can show anything you want. The fancy stat boys treat it like a religion. We're 5-2, deal with it. Almost equaled last years win total by near mid season. Its all good.
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: I'll be surprised if we get blown out. Since McDermott got here we've always played New England close. The NFL is a matchup league. DVOA does a very good job, probably as good as any statistic can, at measuring the quality of NFL teams. But it doesn't properly account for matchups. I had the Eagles game pegged as a loss because their weakness - pass defense - didn't match up with our team's strength. We couldnt take advantage of their weakness. The Patriots are the opposite. Their strength on defense is pass defense. That doesn't hurt our team as bad as it does other teams. Their strength on offense is passing the ball. Our defense matches up well with that. I expect we will lose that game by a TD or less. ??? They were absolutely obliterated in NE last year; don't be deceived by the score. The Bills scored a garbage time TD with a minute to go when the outcome wasn't in doubt, and that outcome wasn't in doubt after the first 20 minutes of that game. NE ran it all game, steamrolling the Bills for 273 rushing yards. It was one of the more embarrassing Bills performances in recent years. The year before they lost in NE 37-16. Sure, the Bills led in the 3rd at one point, but they also led 21-0 against the Pats in 2011 before going on to lose 49-21. The last 25 minutes of the game count too, and the Pats ultimately massacred them in that game. Having said that, I do think that DVOA misses a bit on coaching, as I outline here: Edited October 31, 2019 by dave mcbride 1
Malazan Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Is there somewhere I can DVOA applied to say the last 20 years and how successful it's predictions are?
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