20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll wave the white flag because you have proved yourself incapable of reading a post or logical thinking.  

 

I have stated over & over that I want to see the offense play 4 quarters of offense (not just the 4th).  

 

I have stated over and over that I do like Allen, think he will be a very good player & blame most of the offensive shortcomings on the coaching staff and philosophy, but won't be sure until I see that 300 yard game, multiple games where he plays well for 4 quarters and see games where we consistently score high 20's-30's.  I'd love to win a shootout.

 

Brady was not the anointed one back then, was a 6th round pick thrown in only because of a season ending injury and was  only a game manager.  By season 2 he was the bonafied starter and had 3 300 yard games & 28 TDs vs. 14 ints..... 

I stopped reading at "I'll wave the white flag"

 

Because you should.

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the NFL this year, there have been 72 games of QB's throwing for 300 yards.  37 of those games ended up in wins....51% of the time.  

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the NFL this year, there have been 72 games of QB's throwing for 300 yards.  37 of those games ended up in wins....51% of the time.  

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See below: 51% win correlation is really 75%....

 

#StatsAreNotHisStrongSuit

 

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw flor 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw flor 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

 

Man you really don't understand context at all. 

 

Yep...can't blame the QB because he threw for 300 yards. He might have thrown 4 INT's which lead to multiple scores for the other team.  Might have held the ball too long a lot of the game taking many sacks put them in bad field position over and over again.   Might have taken some big sacks taken them out of FG range.  Many things could have happened through out the game but NONE of that matters to you....just 300.  

[Billsfan1972]

And in 2019 outside Buffalo, the only teams without a 300 yard passer are Pittsburgh (on their 3rd or 4th qb) & Miami.....  Great company.....? 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

 

Not making a conclusion.  Just pointing out that in the last 28 years, 27 SB winning Qb's have thrown for 300 yards during the season and only 1 hasn't.  

Well it’s interesting but the question is how meaningful it is.

[soflabillsfan1]

31 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 Let me ask you and @soflabillsfan1a question:

 

In Tom Brady's first SB win, he had one 300 yard game during the regular season and one during the playoffs. In those two games, he averaged 53 attempts to reach 300 yds, threw for 2 TDs and 1 INT, and averaged 22.5 points per game. In fact, in the playoff game in which he threww for 300 yards, he didn't have a touchdown and the defense bailed him out in a 16-13 win.

 

In the Super Bowl, he threw for 145 yds. Yet, when his team needed him, he pushed the ball downfield and put his team in position to kick the game winning field goal.

 

What was more meaningful? The 300 yard games or the ability to carry his team when he needed to.

 

I suppose we could use your simple analysis above and say if Brady threw for 300 yards in the Super Bowl, he wouldn't have had to come back with a game winning drive in the 4th quarter. 

 

Allen led his team to wins in a number of games and didn't throw for 300 yards. Did you even read what I wrote before responding?

 

Still haven't answered my question on Allen being a catalyst for the team.

 

You are the cyber equivalent of a 3 year old throwing a tantrum in a store because his mommy didn't buy him the candy bar he wanted...

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

[oldmanfan]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

Possibly.  If he throws a stupid pick in the last drive you could, for example.

 

The data the OP provided ins thought provoking, but from a purely statistical perspective it doesn't really tell you anything in terms of causation.  You could have poor game planning, poor defense, poor QB play, poor WRs, and on and on.   

 

I think you are falling into a common statistical trap - confirmation bias.  You have implied on this board that what excites you the most is offense, so you want to see the Bills pile up more yards.  Now, that's not as bad as another poster, who has put out what to me are the two most mystifying posts I've seen in a long time; that he'd rather the team get over 300 yards passing vs. win, and that he thinks offense wins games but defense wins championships to somehow justify his views of 300 yard passing games.

 

But back to your confirmation bias.  Because your wish is what you term exciting games (personally I get excited by great defense, but again I digress), you look at the data on the 300 yard games listed here as justification that it somehow proves your point.  It really doesn't though.  It just reinforces your previously held bias.

 

I'll say again, I'd love to see Josh break out and have a huge game.  Who wouldn't? But I would want to see it in the context of a win.  The Bills are 5-2 right now.  That's pretty good.  And they've done it with defense, decent running game, AND with a young QB that really comes to the forefront in the fourth quarter.  Rather than make the stale argument that if he had been better the first three quarters he wouldn't need the heroics in the fourth, I would say this: 

       1.  His fourth quarter performances are a positive sign that he can be the guy

        2.  The OC should look at his fourth quarter play and design things in the first 3 quarters to allow him to play like he does the fourth quarter (like Singleton, maybe?).

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by oldmanfan

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

Correct

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Possibly.  If he throws a stupid pick in the last drive you could, for example.

 

Th data the OP provided ins thought provoking, but from a purely statistical perspective it doesn't really tell you anything in terms of causation.  You could have poor game planning, poor defense, poor QB play, poor WRs, and on and on.   

 

I think you are falling into a common statistical trap - confirmation bias.  You have implied on this board that what excites you the most is offense, so you want to see the Bills pile up more yards.  Now, that's not as bad as another poster, who has put out what to me are the two most mystifying posts I've seen in a long time; that he'd rather the team get over 300 yards passing vs. win, and that he thinks offense wins games but defense wins championships to somehow justify his views of 300 yard passing games.

 

But back to your confirmation bias.  Because your wish is what you term exciting games (personally I get excited by great defense, but again I digress), you look at the data on the 300 yard games listed here as justification that it somehow proves your point.  It really doesn't though.  It just reinforces your previously held bias.

 

I'll say again, I'd love to see Josh break out and have a huge game.  Who wouldn't? But I would want to see it in the context of a win.  The Bills are 5-2 right now.  That's pretty good.  And they've done it with defense, decent running game, AND with a young QB that really comes to the forefront in the fourth quarter.  Rather than make the stale argument that if he had been better the first three quarters he wouldn't need the heroics in the fourth, I would say this: 

 

 

 

I appreciate a fair post.  We can debate poor ints, bad sacks & fumbles too, but then we'd get bogged down.

 

There also too was that coaching adage that said Three Things Can Happen When You Pass and Two of Them Are Bad, which today is really just scoffed at (though not sure that McD may not agree with it)...

 

As for throwing for over 300 & losing, I too don't disagree to a point.

 

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing, however building for the future & this 5 year plan.....  

 

If that is the case, to me having the QB in place is the most important facet & the quicker the Bills know whether it is Allen (or not) means to me seeing him throw for 300+, play great offense for 4 quarters & if that means losing 38-35, that may be the best thing to happen to the Bills.  

 

Again you can believe that every game can be won 17-13 and be defense first, but I can'tg stand those games & that hjas been the Bills mantra for the past 2.5 seasons & I don't particularly like it.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

31 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

My point exactly. You have to go game by game to put any context or meaning to it. Even then, you still have to analyze many variables to tell you whether or not the 300+ yard game was necessary or critical to the actual win. In the end for every 300+ yard game you show me a win, I can show you one in a loss. So, again, show me the actual statistical analyses where 300+ yard games are predictive of wins.

[dave mcbride]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. You have to go game by game to put any context or meaning to it. Even then, you still have to analyze many variables to tell you whether or not the 300+ yard game was necessary or critical to the actual win. In the end for every 300+ yard game you show me a win, I can show you one in a loss. So, again, show me the actual statistical analyses where 300+ yard games are predictive of wins.

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

[billsfan1959]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing

 

And this is why so many posters want to take you to task. You are constantly asserting that because a poster happens to think the "process" is a legitimate thing for almost every team, or believes that this team is still in the process of building to a championship caliber level, or happens to disagree with your perspective on 300 yard games, or just doesn't complain about the team in every post, then that poster must be okay with losing. 

 

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

 

That wasn't my point. My point was that an arbitrary 300+ yard performance, evaluated in a vacuum, does not necessarily correlate to a win - and this clamoring for A 300 yard game just for the sake of having a 300 yard game is ridiculous. I have said over and over that I would rather have a QB that can push the ball down the field when it is needed. Sometimes that equals a 300+ yard performance and sometimes it doesn't, thank you very much.

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[row_33]

6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

And this is why so many posters want to take you to task. You are constantly asserting that because a poster happens to think the "process" is a legitimate thing for almost every team, or believes that this team is still in the process of building to a championship caliber level, or happens to disagree with your perspective on 300 yard games, or just doesn't complain about the team in every post, then that poster must be okay with losing. 

 

 

That wasn't my point. My point was that an arbitrary 300+ yard performance, evaluated in a vacuum, does not necessarily correlate to a win - and this clamoring for A 300 yard game just for the sake of having a 300 yard game is ridiculous. I have said over and over that I would rather have a QB that can push the ball down the field when it is needed. Sometimes that equals a 300+ yard performance and sometimes it doesn't, thank you very much.

 

thanks, i didn't know before right now that a 300+ yard game was 100% a win

 

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I appreciate a fair post.  We can debate poor ints, bad sacks & fumbles too, but then we'd get bogged down.

 

There also too was that coaching adage that said Three Things Can Happen When You Pass and Two of Them Are Bad, which today is really just scoffed at (though not sure that McD may not agree with it)...

 

As for throwing for over 300 & losing, I too don't disagree to a point.

 

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing, however building for the future & this 5 year plan.....  

 

If that is the case, to me having the QB in place is the most important facet & the quicker the Bills know whether it is Allen (or not) means to me seeing him throw for 300+, play great offense for 4 quarters & if that means losing 38-35, that may be the best thing to happen to the Bills.  

 

Again you can believe that every game can be won 17-13 and be defense first, but I can'tg stand those games & that hjas been the Bills mantra for the past 2.5 seasons & I don't particularly like it.

 

 

I am going to be harsh here, and excuse for doing so, but when you say there are people here who seem Ok with losing you are being completely ridiculous.  Just because people do not agree with your desire for more exciting games does not mean they are excited about losing.  The only people on this board that would be OK with losing (and there are a few) are those who would rather see their team lose so they can say they were right about McD, or Allen, or Beane , or whomever.  and that to me is just pathetic.

 

As for "The Process", I have asked you (I think you) this many times and have never gotten a clear response:  Name me successful organizations with our successful processes.  Again, just because you don't like the way this team goes about its business does not mean it's bad.

 

Your bias is shown in your last paragraph:  you can't stand more defensive games.  You don't like it.  To which I can only say:  too bad.  Because right now the Bills are 5-2, and in position to get to the playoffs.  And using their philosophy and process and whatever got them their first playoff berth in 17 years a couple years ago.

 

You have a decision to make as a fan:  whether you're more interested in style, or wins.  I know which side of that I come down on, every time.  I am a defense fan, but if the Bills were winning every game 42-38 with 500 yards passing a game, I'd be on board.  Sadly, I think I know which side you come down on.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

thanks, i didn't know before right now that a 300+ yard game was 100% a win

 

I didn't say that at all in my post. You could try re- reading it or, if you would like, I could re-write it using more one syllable words....

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[C.Biscuit97]

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

[Mango]

3 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

So you have no need to work and that’s why you can research this ?

 

(powers been out for hours here)

 

Haha, me too. Saratoga area? 

 

Honestly it took some time, but I had no deadline, so it wasn't like wasting a day, I just did it over a few days.  It is amazing what you can get done in an hour long conference call, that could have been an email.