20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[CincyBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Mango said:

For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference

 

So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information.  

Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities: 

- 32 Starts

or

- 6 years on an NFL Roster

- For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster

- QB's Drafted in  2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game 

 

Raw Findings: 

- For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1) 

- QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start

- Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game. 

- Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started

- QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers. 

- QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career. 

- Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify)

- Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game. 

 

***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.***

 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing

 

Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread.

 

Good stuff. 

 

I wonder though how much Allen is impacted by a very conservative coaching style?  Take his 2nd start against the Vikings last year.  He had almost 200 yards passing early in the 2nd period with the Bills up 24 - 0.  Then he threw a prefect deep pass that would have gone for at least 60 yards had Foster not dropped it.  From that point on the Bills stopped throwing downfield.

 

I get why they did this - rookie QB and unexpectedly up 27 - 0 on the road against a good team.  But I suspect that MOST teams would have kept the pressure on until early in the 4th.  Had the Bills been more aggressive in the 2nd half I suspect Allen would have had his first 300 yard game in the bag already.

 

And we saw a similar thing this season against the Giants where Allen's 1st half performance seemed to indicate he was on his way to 300 yards.

 

 

 

 

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

or that they are playing from behind a lot and compiling yardage during garbage time.  Really hard to reach a conclusion without all of the circumstantial data surrounding the performance. 

Buffalo was playing against the Eagles in garbage time. 

 

Allen threw 10 incomplete passes in a row. 

 

Its not circumstantial...if your Qb cant put up that number or more, you don't have a chance to win...thats the point. 

 

Franchise guys do it early in their career and do it often as their career progresses. 

 

Im completely dumbfounded by the fact people are not concerned that half way through our "franchise" Qbs second year, he has yet to throw a 300 yard game, especially when we are behind.   

 

He runs when facing a blitz instead of beating it with his arm. 

 

Im not going to call him a bust, yet, but his lack of big plays and passing ability thus far is troubling. 

 

If Allen doesn't show some big improvement moving into the second half of his second year, there is going to be serious questions about legitimacy as a franchise guy. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by TwistofFate

[Nextmanup]

I.E., if Allen had it in him to do it, he would have done it by now.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Buffalo was playing against the Eagles in garbage time. 

 

Allen threw 10 incomplete passes in a row. 

 

Its not circumstantial...if your Qb cant put up that number or more, you don't have a chance to win...thats the point. 

 

Franchise guys do it early in their career and do it often as their career progresses. 

 

Im completely dumbfounded by the fact people are not concerned that half way through our "franchise" Qbs career he has yet to throw a 300 yard game, especially when we are behind.   

 

He runs when facing a blitz instead of beating it with his arm. 

 

Im not going to call him a bust, yet, but his lack of big plays and passing ability thus far is troubling. 

 

If Allen doesn't show some big improvement moving into the second half of his second year, there is going to be serious questions about legitimacy as a franchise guy. 

I can’t believe we have a poster that admitted yesterday he’d rather see his team lose as long as the QB throws for 300 yards.  

[Nextmanup]

20 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Buffalo was playing against the Eagles in garbage time. 

 

Allen threw 10 incomplete passes in a row. 

 

Its not circumstantial...if your Qb cant put up that number or more, you don't have a chance to win...thats the point. 

 

Franchise guys do it early in their career and do it often as their career progresses. 

 

Im completely dumbfounded by the fact people are not concerned that half way through our "franchise" Qbs career he has yet to throw a 300 yard game, especially when we are behind.   

 

He runs when facing a blitz instead of beating it with his arm. 

 

Im not going to call him a bust, yet, but his lack of big plays and passing ability thus far is troubling. 

 

If Allen doesn't show some big improvement moving into the second half of his second year, there is going to be serious questions about legitimacy as a franchise guy. 

Excellent post.

 

Very few posters at this forum are willing to exercise your level of objectivity in analyzing Josh Allen's game.

 

Unfortunately, he has enough going for him and does enough things right or well that I'm afraid it's going to take time for the powers that be to determine "he doesn't have it."

 

How long did it take for the Bengals to finally give up with Dalton?  

 

The Dolphins sunk 7 seasons into Project Tannehill while Bills fans (and plenty of others around the league) laughed and enjoyed the easy wins when they presented themselves.  Even they have finally figured out that was a mistake.

 

I truly hope Pegula puts pressure on things to draw definitive conclusions about Allen after THIS season.

 

It's been long enough.

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Nextmanup

[TwistofFate]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I can’t believe we have a poster that admitted yesterday he’d rather see his team lose as long as the QB throws for 300 yards.  

I cant believe you continue to take my post out of context. 

 

Id rather see a loss with growth, than a win based in mediocrity. 

 

Everyone wants to win, but if there's no growth and you're relying week in and week out on the defense shutting down opponents, get ready to be an average team forever. 

 

If you can't understand that, I don't know what more to say. 

[Kelly the Dog]

10 incompletions out of context is worthless. If he is down by 18 points and throwing screen passes for completions, or dumps offs, or 6 yards to the TE over the middle, or other equally worthless passes he is going to be completing a lot more passes but even less of a chance to win. 

 

[Jrb1979]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

I cant believe you continue to take my post out of context. 

 

Id rather see a loss with growth, than a win based in mediocrity. 

 

Everyone wants to win, but if there's no growth and you're relying week in and week out on the defense shutting down opponents, get ready to be an average team forever. 

 

If you can't understand that, I don't know what more to say. 

I agree with what you say about the offense not growing. You have to realize that the majority of the posters on this board are old school when defenses dominated and 17-14 scores where the norm. Now you need to usually score close to 21 points or more to win. It is why I keep saying to let Allen loose and stop making him a pocket passer. Let him run around and make plays. He will never be that QB with high completion percentage. He is best when he runs around making plays. His too best games last season that is how he played. 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I.E., if Allen had it in him to do it, he would have done it by now.

 

 

Had what, exactly?

[TwistofFate]

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

10 incompletions out of context is worthless. If he is down by 18 points and throwing screen passes for completions, or dumps offs, or 6 yards to the TE over the middle, or other equally worthless passes he is going to be completing a lot more passes but even less of a chance to win. 

 

Not really.  The ball is moving down field, right?  

 

The sticks continue to move, right? 

 

Hitting guys in stride on slants, screens, and seams lead to big gains.   Tom Brady has made a career out of it.

 

Then the defense sits on a route, your Wr pops a double move and you hit a huge pass.

 

You might be cool with 10 incompletions in a row, but personally, for me, its pathetic. 

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I cant believe you continue to take my post out of context. 

 

Id rather see a loss with growth, than a win based in mediocrity. 

 

Everyone wants to win, but if there's no growth and you're relying week in and week out on the defense shutting down opponents, get ready to be an average team forever. 

 

If you can't understand that, I don't know what more to say. 

They measure success in the NFL by wins, not 300 yard games.  You’d rather have a loss.  You said it, own it.

 

Allen is like most young QBs.  He’s learning.  I started a thread this week that they should let Josh be Josh, let him play the way he plays fourth quarters where he’s been more successful.  There is no reason you can’t win and develop the QB.

 

And one other thing.  If a QB throws for 250 say, and runs for 50, does that count?  

[TwistofFate]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Had what, exactly?

The ability to take over games with his arm. 

[Trogdor]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

That is why I think they should just him loose like he played last season against the Vikings. Trying to make him a pocket passer is not helping him at all. Since this is still a building year and they do play a bad team in Washington next, let him loose. He may not have it but making him a game manager is not helping him. I don't see that happening cause their coach believes in complimentary football which goes against what Allen is good at. He is best when playing hero ball. 

It's easy to think about that game as a coming out, but he didn't even reach 200yds passing and had 235 total. He also fumbled 3 times, but luckily none were lost or it might have been a different story. We really hit them at the right time when they were getting blown out. I think the shock of beating the Vikings has really made most of us look at that game differently. 

[TwistofFate]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

They measure success in the NFL by wins, not 300 yard games.  You’d rather have a loss.  You said it, own it.

 

Allen is like most young QBs.  He’s learning.  I started a thread this week that they should let Josh be Josh, let him play the way he plays fourth quarters where he’s been more successful.  There is no reason you can’t win and develop the QB.

 

And one other thing.  If a QB throws for 250 say, and runs for 50, does that count?  

? 

 

I just clarified for you in writing that I'd rather see a loss with growth than a win based in average play.   What exactly more do I have to own? 

 

If we continue to win against sub par opponents with sub par play, we arent going anywhere. 

 

If we lose a couple games against top tier teams but Allen steps up his game and throws for 350 and 3tds, Im fine with it.  If he's showing growth in that loss, Id rather see that then winning against a team thats winless by way of ONE good drive in the 4th quarter....period. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

The ability to take over games with his arm. 

And to be clear: your concept of the ability to 'take over games with his arm' is evidenced by passing for 300 or more yards within a given period of time?

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

?

 

I just clarified for you in writing that I'd rather see a loss with growth than a win based in average play.   What exactly more do I have to own? 

 

If we continue to win against sub par opponents with sub par play, we arent going anywhere. 

 

If we lose a couple games against top tier teams but Allen steps up his game and throws for 350 and 3tds, Im fine with it.  If he's showing growth in that loss, Id rather see that then winning against a team thats winless by way of ONE good drive in the 4th quarter....period. 

So let’s say those two losses knock them out of the playoffs.  You’d be fine with that.  You’ve shown your true colors.  Congrats.

[GoBills808]

[TwistofFate]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So let’s say those two losses knock them out of the playoffs.  You’d be fine with that.  You’ve shown your true colors.  Congrats.

If you have a quarterback they can't throw for 300 yards you aren't going anywhere in the playoffs.

 

I want Super Bowl wins and that's not going to happen with a quarterback that cant throw for 300 yards.

 

You have shown your true colors, a person that doesn't understand today's modern NFL and the importance of a dominant Qb. Your screen name says it all.   Congrats on living in the 80s. 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Whats the strength of schedule? 

 

Hes put up them stats against the worst statistical defenses in the NFL....and still couldn't post a 300 yard game. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by TwistofFate

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Whats the strength of schedule? 

 

I appreciate that you have a strong concept of nuance and how there exist factors that can influence statistics which must be considered in determining causality.

[buffaloboyinATL]

57 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Buffalo was playing against the Eagles in garbage time. 

 

Allen threw 10 incomplete passes in a row. 

 

Its not circumstantial...if your Qb cant put up that number or more, you don't have a chance to win...thats the point. 

 

Franchise guys do it early in their career and do it often as their career progresses. 

 

Im completely dumbfounded by the fact people are not concerned that half way through our "franchise" Qbs second year, he has yet to throw a 300 yard game, especially when we are behind.   

 

He runs when facing a blitz instead of beating it with his arm. 

 

Im not going to call him a bust, yet, but his lack of big plays and passing ability thus far is troubling. 

 

If Allen doesn't show some big improvement moving into the second half of his second year, there is going to be serious questions about legitimacy as a franchise guy. 

I wasn't referencing Josh Allen specifically, or any particular game. I meant that in general a 300 yard game by itself does not mean a QB has the ability to "take over a game".  There are always anomalies.  Now whether the inability to throw for 300 yards is indicative of something, that is a different conversation.