20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[Billsfan1972]

51 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

What utter nonsense.   Are you a statistician?    You must not be one if you propose an adjustment like that to back up your silly point.

 

Also,  I dont' know if you actually watched the Eagles game.  But the reason we lost is not related to lack of passing....   Its directly related to lack of ball security and inability to stop the run as the Eagles gashed the Bills for over 200 yards on the ground.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See above for 2019 stats.  Remove the losing QBs where both threw for over 300 and yes winning % is well over 60%.....

 

That tells me that is a pretty good recipe for winning.

 

Sure when Brady, Rodgers, Brees throw for 300 they too are pretty successful......

 

Next......

Edited October 31, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See above for 2019 stats.  Remove the losing QBs where both three for over 300 and yes % is well over 60%.....

 

Next......

oh my...

[prissythecat]

28 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See above for 2019 stats.  Remove the losing QBs where both threw for over 300 and yes winning % is well over 60%.....

 

That tells me that is a pretty good recipe for winning.

 

Sure when Brady, Rodgers, Brees throw for 300 they too are pretty successful......

 

Next......

 All I have to say is lol.
 

 You can’t randomly exclude data points to come up with a conclusion like that ....  But if you tell me you want to exclude outliers that pass way too little or way too much ,  that would be legit .

 

But I’ll let a statistician or data scientist comment on this more as I recall we have a few of those who do it for a living  on the board .  

[SinceThe70s]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See above for 2019 stats.  Remove the losing QBs where both three for over 300 and yes % is well over 60%.....

 

Next......

 

So when both QBs throw for over 300 you're counting it as a win but not a loss? If you eliminate those games - which makes more sense to me - it's a 53% win rate when you throw for over 300.

 

[Mango]

List of QB's on a 53 man roster still, who have not thrown for 300 yards yet, or did not reach that mark by their 19th start. 

 

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith-

Joe Webb

AJ McCarron David Fales Sean Manion Jeff Driskell Davis Webb Nathan Peterman Josh Allen Josh Rosen,  Mason Rudolph Luke Falk

 

5 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Interesting!

 

Wouldn't 1.xx years be 1 year+, and 2.xx 2 years+? If less than 1 year, shouldn't it be 0.xx?

 

You could. I just did 1 as their first, year, 2 as their second. Not based on completion. of the year. I thought years in the league might be a good indicator, but I think the data is pointing heavier towards number of starts, independent of time in the league

 

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 All I have to say is lol.
 

 You can’t randomly exclude data points to come up with a conclusion like that ....  But if you tell me you want to exclude outliers that pass way too little or way too much ,  that would be legit .

 

But I’ll let a statistician or data scientist comment on this more as I recall we have a few of those who do it for a living  on the board .  

A basic question about statistics is whether you have a large enough sample size to make a statistical argument.  I think the OP isn’t making a true statistical argument.  He listed out some data, but while interesting it ultimately may not be very meaningful.  I mentioned earlier the concepts of correlation and causation.  You might list out the number of QBs that have X number of 300 yards gains in Y time.  That might correlate to ultimate QB career performance but doesn’t mean it causes such.

 

it’s always interesting to make observations such as the OP made.  Statistical validity is something else.   Football and success or failure, of an individual player or team, involves a large number of interrelated variables you would have to try and account for in any proper statistical model.

[T master]

Let me start by saying I really like Allen as a leader & as a Bills type player not to mention his arm talent but his knock was his accuracy & to this point it has come up a few times & i really hope he can be "The Guy" in Buffalo because he would be a great fit .

 

That being said the Bills had another QB not to long ago that had a good arm did a lot better in college than did Allen & had the same kind of knock against him coming out of college about his accuracy & he is no longer in the league that being EJ Manuel .

 

Then you have the fact that there are 2 QB's thrust into the position in the last 2 seasons that have tore it up in Minshew in Jacksonville & the kid in SF Mullens last year that have taken the opportunity & turned it into gold ! Plus Teddy Bridgewater ain't doing to bad to this point in his resurgence ! 

 

I hope Josh can turn it on but if what this post's findings are true & he doesn't show real improvement quickly do they need to move on & grab one of those guys before some one else does or can the QB coach bring him along ? 

 

Let's keep our fingers crossed !! 

[apuszczalowski]

23 minutes ago, Mango said:

List of QB's on a 53 man roster still, who have not thrown for 300 yards yet, or did not reach that mark by their 19th start. 

 

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith-

Joe Webb

AJ McCarron David Fales Sean Manion Jeff Driskell Davis Webb Nathan Peterman Josh Allen Josh Rosen,  Mason Rudolph Luke Falk

 

A real list of the elite right there......

Noticing a bunch of ex-Bills on it........

[Mango]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

A basic question about statistics is whether you have a large enough sample size to make a statistical argument.  I think the OP isn’t making a true statistical argument.  He listed out some data, but while interesting it ultimately may not be very meaningful.  I mentioned earlier the concepts of correlation and causation.  You might list out the number of QBs that have X number of 300 yards gains in Y time.  That might correlate to ultimate QB career performance but doesn’t mean it causes such.

 

it’s always interesting to make observations such as the OP made.  Statistical validity is something else.   Football and success or failure, of an individual player or team, involves a large number of interrelated variables you would have to try and account for in any proper statistical model.

 

Of course there are a wide array of variables that go into the success of a players career. That does not mean there are not meaningful checkpoints. If you have a model that is encompassing, go for it. Would love to see it. I think talented players generally will find a way to show something pretty early on. The list of QB's who took 19 starts or more to have a 300 yard game is bleak. Does throwing a 300 yard game early in your career mean a QB will be good, of course not. But it seems that the more time goes by, the lesser of a career the player has.

 

David Carr

Blaine Gabbert

Rex Grossman

Charlie Frye

Mark Sanchez

Kyle Orton

Tarvaris Jackson

Vince Young

Charlie Batch

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith

David Garrard

[Jrb1979]

16 minutes ago, T master said:

Let me start by saying I really like Allen as a leader & as a Bills type player not to mention his arm talent but his knock was his accuracy & to this point it has come up a few times & i really hope he can be "The Guy" in Buffalo because he would be a great fit .

 

That being said the Bills had another QB not to long ago that had a good arm did a lot better in college than did Allen & had the same kind of knock against him coming out of college about his accuracy & he is no longer in the league that being EJ Manuel .

 

Then you have the fact that there are 2 QB's thrust into the position in the last 2 seasons that have tore it up in Minshew in Jacksonville & the kid in SF Mullens last year that have taken the opportunity & turned it into gold ! Plus Teddy Bridgewater ain't doing to bad to this point in his resurgence ! 

 

I hope Josh can turn it on but if what this post's findings are true & he doesn't show real improvement quickly do they need to move on & grab one of those guys before some one else does or can the QB coach bring him along ? 

 

Let's keep our fingers crossed !! 

That is why I think they should just him loose like he played last season against the Vikings. Trying to make him a pocket passer is not helping him at all. Since this is still a building year and they do play a bad team in Washington next, let him loose. He may not have it but making him a game manager is not helping him. I don't see that happening cause their coach believes in complimentary football which goes against what Allen is good at. He is best when playing hero ball. 

[ColoradoBills]

13 hours ago, Mango said:

 

thank you. Honestly, I wasn't trying to draw any conclusions. We have just been mentioning this special 300 yard number since EJ in 2013, so I was just curious on when other QB's hit that mark, then one thing leads to another, and...BAM I have 20 years worth of NFL drafts. 

 

I agree, I do not think frequency or timing of NFL games predicts the playoffs. I don't think any of the data implies that either. Again, I don't think it is a predictor of any ceilings, longevity, success etc. I do think you are in a bad place at QB if you have a starter that has gone 30+ games without having a single 300 yard game. Like if you have a rookie who throws a 300 yard game in his 2nd start, it does not imply he will be Aaron Rodgers. But if he goes 30+ he is not in great company, Alex Smith is the only one who could remotely be considered franchise in that area. 

 

Great work digging the numbers out Mango!

I am a bit unsure how games played to the 1st 300 yards can be used for overall QB success.

I do appreciate the significance of a QB able to achieve the number but it does open some questions.

 

An example would be Lamar Jackson.  He has achieved this the 1st game of this season against the Fish so I guess he is

safe to be included in the "could be a great QB" statistics.

However he has averaged less than 200 yards in his last 3 games.

 

I'm not sure if you have the numbers or not but I would think that the frequency of 300 yard games in relation to number of starts

would be interesting to see.  A column of "Total # of 300yard games" and a column dividing that into starts.

 

Of course wins and losses for 300 yard games is the most important and I have been looking into that.

I need to adjust my queries but it does look like QBs with over 300 yards win at a slightly higher rate.

I'm only looking at the last 5 years of data.

 

Once again thanks for the work and to start a thread with some substance. 

[IDBillzFan]

14 hours ago, Mango said:

***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.***

 

Nicely done. You can always tell posters who are either (1) single, or (2) married for a really long time, or (3) trying to look busy in a crappy marriage, or (4) is married to a butt-ugly spouse.

 

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I did some quick research on this:

 

http://pfref.com/tiny/sy8Ft

 

From 2015-2019, 300+ yard passers have gone 284-260-6. So 300+ yard passers have a 51.6% win percentage. In a vacuum it doesn't really predict anything on a game to game basis.

 

In the end, this is the stat that matters when it comes to 300-yard games. There are a lot of stats that say "When this happens (i.e. two or more turnovers in a game), your odds of winning increase by XX%" or "Teams that start 0-4 have XX% of making the playoffs."

 

So it appears a 300-yard passing game wins half the time.

 

Once again...it's a useless stat. I suspect people who bring it up all the time need something to keep them miserable. Kinda like believing that losing a game by 10 points is "a blowout loss."

 

Thanks for digging into this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

You are trying to cherry pick. 

 

Ryan is a franchise Qb.   He posted tons of 300+.  He's taken over multiple games. 

 

And again, he posted multiple 300+ his rookie year, like 1st round Qbs are supposed to do. As well as won, as well as completed a high percentage of passes, as well as had a good Qb rating, as well as not turning the ball over multiple times a game. 

Agreed. The Falcons, despite all of the bad defenses, are 103-78 when he has started and have had 2 13-3 seasons. 

[GoBills808]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt Ryan is an upper echelon Quarterback though. And it is a bit like Drew Brees. Brees has never failed to make the playoffs when the Saints defense has been ranked 27th or higher. He doesn't need good defenses to make it. Just for them to be better than historically bad. Matt Ryan has had a top 10 defense once in 12 years in the league. He has only had a defense ranked in the top half of the league (top 16) on three other occasions. He did actually miss the playoffs in Quinn's first year with a 16th ranked defense but generally his number is 21. Give him a D ranked 21st or better and he makes the post season. 

 

Has he passed for 300+ so many times because of those defensive frailties? Yes. But if you wouldn't be happy with a Matt Ryan level Quarterback I don't know what to tell you. He has been an outstanding NFL player. 

Yes I agree, Ryan is a great QB. I was responding mostly to the guy who said having a QB who can average 300 yards passing is somehow going to keep you in games. That hasn't been the case. 

 

As far as the OP...I generally think measuring QB quality or longevity or 'franchise material' by the amount of time it takes him to throw for an arbitrary number of yards isn't a useful exercise. 

[yungmack]

I, for one, have never been obsessed with the number of 300+ yd games a QB racks up. After all, the overwhelming number of games fall in the 200 yd range week after week, year after year. However, what I want is an offense that can hit over 300 yds when they must in order to win. So far, it appears this remains far beyond the Bills and their sputtering, limpy offense. Whether that's on Allen, Daboll or something else I don't know, but that inability to run on all 8 cylinders and impose its will on opponents when needed is the main thing keeping the Bills from that upper echelon. The very real question for ownership & management is whether or not you "dance with the one that brung ya" or if changes must be made at QB, OC, HC, GM to finally move into elite status. I think by the end of this season this will be much clearer.

Edited October 31, 2019 by yungmack

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Of course there are a wide array of variables that go into the success of a players career. That does not mean there are not meaningful checkpoints. If you have a model that is encompassing, go for it. Would love to see it. I think talented players generally will find a way to show something pretty early on. The list of QB's who took 19 starts or more to have a 300 yard game is bleak. Does throwing a 300 yard game early in your career mean a QB will be good, of course not. But it seems that the more time goes by, the lesser of a career the player has.

 

David Carr

Blaine Gabbert

Rex Grossman

Charlie Frye

Mark Sanchez

Kyle Orton

Tarvaris Jackson

Vince Young

Charlie Batch

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith

David Garrard

I said your data is interesting.  It doesn’t mean it proves anything.  If I felt it was something worth pursuing I’d get with some colleagues and put together a model.  I don't though because there are so many different variables that come into play for football it’s hard to make a causative relationship.  I commend what you did.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

14 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

And if you dont see that then you aren't a fan. 

another arbiter of "fandom" ... Can't stand this crap

[buffaloboyinATL]

14 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

300+ yard passing means one thing to me.  A Qb can take over games when he needs to in order to win. 

 

 

or that they are playing from behind a lot and compiling yardage during garbage time.  Really hard to reach a conclusion without all of the circumstantial data surrounding the performance. 

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

or that they are playing from behind a lot and compiling yardage during garbage time.  Really hard to reach a conclusion without all of the circumstantial data surrounding the performance. 

Quite true

[Kelly the Dog]

Just want to say thanks to the OP Mango for all the work and putting it out there for all of us to make our own conclusions, if any, from it. That's a great service to the board.