GoBills808 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Mango said: Did you even look at the data? Or did you just see 300 yards and yell “Get off my lawn” All it says is that QB’s who throw for 300 yards ONCE within their first 2 years in the league/16 starts have a higher chance of longevity. This has nothing to do with over all passing yards or frequency of 300 yard games in correlation to wins. Relax. I was responding to the idea that consistent 300 yard passing performances mean your team is always in the game. They clearly don’t.
apuszczalowski Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Hebert19 said: Ok. I have to say something here. 1. Appreciate the research. Good stuff. 2. 300 yard games. Honestly who cares. Allen hasn't had any. Tyrod had what 1? Fitz had what a couple (and many since?) Edwards losman ej etc. Maybe a couple. Drew had a few. Flutie. Yes. Rob Johnson. Maybe a couple. Answer. You ever think buffalo is a tough place to play? Weather. Wind. Etc contributes. 1 QB not throwing for 300. No big deal. 2. Weird but no big deal. 10 in last 20 years. That is more than strange...its a trend. Net net is there are many variables that contribute. Stafford is a great example. 8 home games is a dome. Years of terrible defense where you have to throw a lot. Ryan. See above. Rivers...see above minus dome. 300 yards means *****. Wins. That's what is important. And if you dont see that then you aren't a fan. Well looking at your list of QBs, how could anyone be complaining if those guys aren't doing it? Buffalo has had a long list of great QB play since Kelly........ If Buffalo is such a tough place to play, other teams QBs should also be struggling (possibly more since they don't get to play there regularly or practice in it) You use Stafford, Ryan, and Rivers, how about Brady, Brees, Rothlesburger, Manning (Peyton and Eli), Rodgers, etc. Guys who have played in and won SuperBowls so their teams have been successful like we all want the Bills to be. There would probably be less of a concern if the Bills offence was routinely putting up 400-500 yards total in a game because atleast you could say that the offence is getting the job done on the ground and Allen doesn't need to throw for 300 yards. Sure, 300 yards doesn't mean anything if you get the win, but how many times are you going to get the win unless your defence is perfect and can carry the offence, or you get to play a team whose kicker can't hit a FG all day, or you get to play the worst teams in the league almost every game to start the season? 3
TwistofFate Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Yeah they’re really doing well this season with those 300 yard games. You are trying to cherry pick. Ryan is a franchise Qb. He posted tons of 300+. He's taken over multiple games. And again, he posted multiple 300+ his rookie year, like 1st round Qbs are supposed to do. As well as won, as well as completed a high percentage of passes, as well as had a good Qb rating, as well as not turning the ball over multiple times a game. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mango said: Dude, when I heard he was starting last week I was shocked he was still alive. Well hey, he's only 38! But I thought he'd played his way out of the league a while back. I was a fan of his actually and yapped about it some on this board. Felt he was an under-rated QB who actually did all the stuff that a QB needed to do for his team to win. Then in 2013 his arm fell off or turned into a piece of boiled pasta or something. He must have found some kind of helpful rehab or therapy. Good for him. Sorry for the diversion from your topic - Good stuff, btw! What did you do with guys who didn't start until several years after they entered the league BTW? 1
apuszczalowski Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Relax. I was responding to the idea that consistent 300 yard passing performances mean your team is always in the game. They clearly don’t. Well you also have to have a decent defence too. When Atlanta had a good defence, it was true, Atlanta was rarely out of a game with Ryan at QB Was that not how he got the nickname Matty Ice? Stafford, Ryan, and Rivers are all Franchise QBs who can put up big numbers but haven't had the overall success because its still a team game. Ryan has been to a SB and been the QB for many playoff teams, Rivers was also the QB for many good Chargers teams. Stafford may not have had the same playoff success and has been on some bad teams, but like the others, weren't holding back their teams and being the reason they weren't winning.
BillsBlue Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Mango said: For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information. Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities: - 32 Starts or - 6 years on an NFL Roster - For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster - QB's Drafted in 2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game Raw Findings: - For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1) - QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start - Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game. - Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started - QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers. - QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career. - Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify) - Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game. ***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.*** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread. Awesome work great research this is interesting.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Well hey, he's only 38! But I thought he'd played his way out of the league a while back. I was a fan of his actually and yapped about it some on this board. Felt he was an under-rated QB who actually did all the stuff that a QB needed to do for his team to win. Then in 2013 his arm fell off or turned into a piece of boiled pasta or something. He must have found some kind of helpful rehab or therapy. Good for him. Sorry for the diversion from your topic - Good stuff, btw! What did you do with guys who didn't start until several years after they entered the league BTW? Yeah, I meant dead in football/dog years. Those guys who took time to start are factored in to all the averages and accounted for. I chose 6 years in the league for anybody drafted before 2014 to try and not clutter it with lack of longevity/commitment from the league as a whole. 6 years was chosen because a first round pick gets 5 plus a new deal. 32 games started should imply that somebody committed to their development, 2 years. Basically I just wiped out the trash. EJ. Jamarcus, etc. You will see Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit 300 until his 4th year in the league. It slightly sku’s time in the league. But games to his first 300 yard game is still right on point. Alex Smith is easily the oddest case.
GoBills808 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, TwistofFate said: You are trying to cherry pick. Ryan is a franchise Qb. He posted tons of 300+. He's taken over multiple games. And again, he posted multiple 300+ his rookie year, like 1st round Qbs are supposed to do. As well as won, as well as completed a high percentage of passes, as well as had a good Qb rating, as well as not turning the ball over multiple times a game. Yes, Matt Ryan is a franchise QB. No, I don’t believe 300 yard games or their relative frequency is predictive of much. Why? Because it’s a completely arbitrary number. You might as well pick 277, or 297. Or 304. As single-game pass yardage totals have no particular correlation with wins, and I don’t believe them representative of quarterback quality in any meaningful way, I tend to tune out the 300 yard arguments. There are meaningful QB metrics out there. I just don’t find 300 yard games one of them. I’d start by looking at ANY/A and how it correlates with winning and go from there.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: Well you also have to have a decent defence too. When Atlanta had a good defence, it was true, Atlanta was rarely out of a game with Ryan at QB Was that not how he got the nickname Matty Ice? Stafford, Ryan, and Rivers are all Franchise QBs who can put up big numbers but haven't had the overall success because its still a team game. Ryan has been to a SB and been the QB for many playoff teams, Rivers was also the QB for many good Chargers teams. Stafford may not have had the same playoff success and has been on some bad teams, but like the others, weren't holding back their teams and being the reason they weren't winning. Well jeez, you summarized this post way better than I did. Haha
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Yes, Matt Ryan is a franchise QB. No, I don’t believe 300 yard games or their relative frequency is predictive of much. Why? Because it’s a completely arbitrary number. You might as well pick 277, or 297. Or 304. As single-game pass yardage totals have no particular correlation with wins, and I don’t believe them representative of quarterback quality in any meaningful way, I tend to tune out the 300 yard arguments. There are meaningful QB metrics out there. I just don’t find 300 yard games one of them. I’d start by looking at ANY/A and how it correlates with winning and go from there. I mean, I guess, but not really. There seems to be a correlation between early in career 300 yard games, and games started over the course of their career. QB’s might be the most fickle position in sports, nobody hangs on to a QB on a losing team. Once again, nobody is asking you to believe frequency of 300 yard games has a correlation to wins. Hell, nobody is asking you to believe anything. But you seem hell bent on setting the data on fire and telling people they are wrong on a point nobody is making here. But the data is most definitely showing that QB’s who fail to take over a game with their arm (300 yards for this exercise), don’t have much longevity as starters in the NFL. 1
GoBills808 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Mango said: I mean, I guess, but not really. There seems to be a correlation between early in career 300 yard games, and games started over the course of their career. QB’s might be the most fickle position in sports, nobody hangs on to a QB on a losing team. Once again, nobody is asking you to believe frequency of 300 yard games has a correlation to wins. Hell, nobody is asking you to believe anything. But you seem hell bent on setting the data on fire and telling people they are wrong on a point nobody is making here. But the data is most definitely showing that QB’s who fail to take over a game with their arm (300 yards for this exercise), don’t have much longevity as starters in the NFL. What about QBs who fail to throw for 400 yards? What about QBs who fail to throw for 500 yards?
dma0034 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Kind of hard to judge the QB's success when Manning and Brady have done what they've done. I really think you can argue about 4 GOATs at QB and 3 of them happened to play at the same time (Rodgers). Can I really fault Rivers for not consistently besting the Patriots? Or any NFC team in their QBs (Ryan, Brees, Stafford, Rodgers, Newton, Romo, Wilson). It is tough. Wilson and Brady weren't amazing QBs until after the first few years. 1
Nihilarian Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Om regards to the deep ball. I think that McD/Beane made it known they wanted Josh to have a better completion % to justify drafting him when they did. Hence the signing of Cole Beasley to help with that shorter passing game which also helps with the completion percentage. Know this, Allen wasn't a high percentage passer in college because they didn't run the bubble screens and short passing schemes at Wyoming. Allen threw in an NFL pro style offense with a lot of deep passing. That said, this scheme Brian Daboll is running this year is kinda new to Allen so he is getting used to running it. They aren't throwing the deep ball much for a few reasons I believe as one Robert Foster has been injured and only recently recovered. Next they simply aren't throwing that deep ball in practice often enough to get the timing down. Another thing is that the receivers are still getting used to catching Allen's fastball, and Allen is still working on making that shorter passing game work. I think the 300 yard passing games will come as both the receivers and QB get more experience playing together. The entire offense is a work in progress as Deboll figures things out. Judging by the Bills PC I think he got a swift kick from McD for not running Singletary more and perhaps putting to much of the offense on that young QB's shoulders. JMHO
MJS Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 My bet, and it would easy to run a regression on this, is that as passing yards per game increase, wins and playoff appearances would also increase. But if you break them down into bins, say 100 to 150, 150 to 200, etc. there would probably not be a big difference between 200 to 250 and 250 to 300+. I think there's a steep drop off if you throw for less than 200 yards, but anything in to 200+ area is good enough to win games consistently. Probably a more apt metric to look at is turnover percentage or TD:INT ratio, and even combine that with yards per game. Allen has shown that he can be a fairly consistent 200 to 250 yard passer and I think that is where you want to be, with the occasional 300 yard game as a "nice to have". What he needs to work on is not passing for more yards, but committing less turnovers. I'm recent memory, we had guys like Tyrod Taylor who consistently threw for less than 200 yards. Below 200 is just a steep drop off in QB play.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: What about QBs who fail to throw for 400 yards? What about QBs who fail to throw for 500 yards? 300 yards has long been considered the threshold for a very good game by an NFL QB. If you want to argue how that came to be or is a reasonable line, then we might as well scream at each other about Descartes For the sake of this exercise: 400 Yard Games- 49 QB's- 19 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 39% make the NFL HOF 500 Yard Games- 10 QB's - 6 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 60% make the NFL HOF Does throwing for 400 or 500 yards mean you are the absolute greatest?...absolutely not. But if you do either of those things, you have a 40-60% chance of making it, which is a better shot by a mile, than just about every other QB in the league. Obviously interpreting data is lost on you and you would rather scream "fake news" than understand anything. 1
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 36 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: Om regards to the deep ball. I think that McD/Beane made it known they wanted Josh to have a better completion % to justify drafting him when they did. Hence the signing of Cole Beasley to help with that shorter passing game which also helps with the completion percentage. Know this, Allen wasn't a high percentage passer in college because they didn't run the bubble screens and short passing schemes at Wyoming. Allen threw in an NFL pro style offense with a lot of deep passing. That said, this scheme Brian Daboll is running this year is kinda new to Allen so he is getting used to running it. They aren't throwing the deep ball much for a few reasons I believe as one Robert Foster has been injured and only recently recovered. Next they simply aren't throwing that deep ball in practice often enough to get the timing down. Another thing is that the receivers are still getting used to catching Allen's fastball, and Allen is still working on making that shorter passing game work. I think the 300 yard passing games will come as both the receivers and QB get more experience playing together. The entire offense is a work in progress as Deboll figures things out. Judging by the Bills PC I think he got a swift kick from McD for not running Singletary more and perhaps putting to much of the offense on that young QB's shoulders. JMHO There are 88 QB's in the last 20 years that threw for 300 yards in a game (and/or played for 6+ year in the NFL) in less starts than Allen. There are 63 QB's in the last 20 years that have thrown for 300+ yards in less time in the league, regardless of game starts. I can't imagine that half of the QB's in the league that have either made it 6 years or 32 starts are in a worse position than JA. That would be historically bad coaching and FO management. 1
apuszczalowski Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mango said: 300 yards has long been considered the threshold for a very good game by an NFL QB. If you want to argue how that came to be or is a reasonable line, then we might as well scream at each other about Descartes For the sake of this exercise: 400 Yard Games- 49 QB's- 19 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 39% make the NFL HOF 500 Yard Games- 10 QB's - 6 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 60% make the NFL HOF Does throwing for 400 or 500 yards mean you are the absolute greatest?...absolutely not. But if you do either of those things, you have a 40-60% chance of making it, which is a better shot by a mile, than just about every other QB in the league. Obviously interpreting data is lost on you and you would rather scream "fake news" than understand anything. Yup, 300 is becoming a new standard for good QB play (and a QB can still have a good game in a loss), years ago in the Kelly era, 200 yards a game was the standard (teams put more focus on the running game back then). Its now a passing league with QBs taking over games. How many teams are going ground and pound offences with solid defences? How many of those teams are playoff teams or SB contenders? No one is using 400-500 yards because its not as common in the NFL yet to have QBs throwing for that many yards regularly Its much easier to just claim 'Fake News' with the stats because the Bills have been lucky to get through those games with the record they have. If a couple of them went the other way, like the Jets kicker hits a couple of those FGs, or a couple of those teams hold on and they don't get the 4th quarter comebacks are people really going to be happy with Allens and the offences production and feel the other stats don't matter? 2 1
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: Yup, 300 is becoming a new standard for good QB play (and a QB can still have a good game in a loss), years ago in the Kelly era, 200 yards a game was the standard (teams put more focus on the running game back then). Its now a passing league with QBs taking over games. How many teams are going ground and pound offences with solid defences? How many of those teams are playoff teams or SB contenders? No one is using 400-500 yards because its not as common in the NFL yet to have QBs throwing for that many yards regularly Its much easier to just claim 'Fake News' with the stats because the Bills have been lucky to get through those games with the record they have. If a couple of them went the other way, like the Jets kicker hits a couple of those FGs, or a couple of those teams hold on and they don't get the 4th quarter comebacks are people really going to be happy with Allens and the offences production and feel the other stats don't matter? It is just what analytics is. It is predictive but not a guarantee. Look at 2016, nobody said HRC was going to be POTUS, just that she stood a 70% chance, or whatever it was. Improbable, yes, impossible no. The more data points you have, the more accurate it becomes. I am not smart enough to be writing any algorithms, but I do like this data point in terms of taking some simple data to try and grasp longevity. I also like YAC with air yards per attempt or completion to see how the QB is delivering the ball. Somebody has to buck the trend, Allen has in many ways. But at the same time, he is putting himself behind the 8 ball.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 49 minutes ago, MJS said: My bet, and it would easy to run a regression on this, is that as passing yards per game increase, wins and playoff appearances would also increase. But if you break them down into bins, say 100 to 150, 150 to 200, etc. there would probably not be a big difference between 200 to 250 and 250 to 300+. I think there's a steep drop off if you throw for less than 200 yards, but anything in to 200+ area is good enough to win games consistently. Probably a more apt metric to look at is turnover percentage or TD:INT ratio, and even combine that with yards per game. Allen has shown that he can be a fairly consistent 200 to 250 yard passer and I think that is where you want to be, with the occasional 300 yard game as a "nice to have". What he needs to work on is not passing for more yards, but committing less turnovers. I'm recent memory, we had guys like Tyrod Taylor who consistently threw for less than 200 yards. Below 200 is just a steep drop off in QB play. All good stuff. Part of the issue with this is, we (I), don't have access to some NFL master file that we can just mess with in excel, so it has to be done manually. I didn't collect anything in a way that I could bin this out in terms of frequency or averages. Even teasing out passing yards per start would be difficult with the way the data is given to the public.
Hebert19 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 2 hours ago, TwistofFate said: 300+ yard passing means one thing to me. A Qb can take over games when he needs to in order to win. Consistent 300+ performances means you are an elite passer and your team is pretty much never out of a game. Sub 300 yard passers that span the course of 1+ years in todays modern NFL indicates a serious Qb deficiency. The league today is hand tailored for Qbs to excel at the position. None of those Qbs you spoke of are a franchise Qb....I wonder why? This is an offensive, pass oriented league. If you cant post 300 yard games and lead your team to wins when you're down 10-14 points, you'll never be a franchise Qb....period. The other side of this is the coaching allowing you to do it. We need to take training wheels off to see for real.
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