Billsfan1972 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: OK, I just calculated the win-loss records for 4,000+ yards passers, 4,800+ yard passers, and 5,000+ yard passers over the entire history of the league, and also broke out a more recent stretch (2013-2018) when the number of 4,000+ yard passers exploded. These aren't 300 yard games per se, but if someone is throwing for 4000+ yards, you know they're putting up a decent number of 300-yard games and are capable of competing in shootouts. Here goes: 5,000+ yard passers: 105-54-1 (66 percent) 4,800+ yard passers (if you're throwing for 4,800, you're *averaging* 300 ypg): 215-135-2 (63 percent) 4,000+ yard passers: 1,616-1,088-8 (60 percent) 4,000+ yard passers since 2013: 588-451 (57 percent) The Bills have never had a 4,000 yard passer, and their franchise lifetime won-loss record is 420-479-8 (47 percent). Since the beginning of this century--the golden era of big passing numbers--their winning percentage is 42 percent (132-179). Great post, bit it's all about defense according to some and the coaching staff.
dave mcbride Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: Great post, bit it's all about defense according to some and the coaching staff. (Thanks, but note that I forgot to remember Bledsoe's 4,000 yard season in 2002 in my final comment about the Bills. I corrected it.)
billsfan1959 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 52 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: You make solid points. And I just want to see a game where Allen is the main reason we win. Not a drive when we scored 7 points all game. Just a good 4 quarters of 28+ points. Is that too much to ask? No, I don't think it is too much too ask. I am just not sure when he will (or if can) reach that point. I do believe he can; however, I have been wrong before. I think the first step is to be more consistent over the course of the game. That is what I am looking for at the present time - really nothing more. I think consistency will, by consequence, elevate other areas of his game and production. I do not mind being patient if I see progress. At this point, I have seen a lot of progress over the last year. I would like a considerable step in that progress over the remainder of this year. I think the team will bring in some more quality players on the offensive side of the ball in free agency and the draft. Then, next year is truly the year for me. They have the cap space and draft picks to give him what he needs to get to that next level, and he should have more than enough experience to reach it. If he doesn't, then it will be time to look at other options.
billsfan1959 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 (edited) 57 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: OK, I just calculated the win-loss records for 4,000+ yards passers, 4,800+ yard passers, and 5,000+ yard passers over the entire history of the league, and also broke out a more recent stretch (2013-2018) when the number of 4,000+ yard passers exploded. These aren't 300 yard games per se, but if someone is throwing for 4000+ yards, you know they're putting up a decent number of 300-yard games and are capable of competing in shootouts. Here goes: 5,000+ yard passers: 105-54-1 (66 percent) 4,800+ yard passers (if you're throwing for 4,800, you're *averaging* 300 ypg): 215-135-2 (63 percent) 4,000+ yard passers: 1,616-1,088-8 (60 percent) 4,000+ yard passers since 2013: 588-451 (57 percent) The Bills have have had one 4,000 yard passer (Bledsoe in 2002; they went 8-8), and their franchise lifetime won-loss record is 420-479-8 (47 percent). Since the beginning of this century--the golden era of big passing numbers--their winning percentage is 42 percent (132-179). Good post and a completely different discussion than 300 yard games. When you start looking at 4300+ yard passers (which is an average of 268 yards per game), you are talking about only a handful each season (6 per year from 2015-2018) of upper echelon QBs. When you get to the 4800+ - 5000+ yard passers, you are typically talking the few elite (less than 2 per year from 2015-2018). They are usually the same QBs in those groups, with an outlier or two of a QB just having a great year. One could argue that the yardage and winning percentage are the result of the few elite level QBs in the NFL. Everyone may want one on their team; however, the truth is, very few exist. The vast majority of QBs exist under that 4300+ mark (Again, an average of 268 Yards per game) and most of them are under 4000 yards (An average of 250 yards per game). When you drop below 4300 yards, and certainly below 4000 yards a season, the winning percentage drops with it. So, your argument that a higher yardage season equates to more wins is true (more true for those elite QBs); however, under 4500+ yards a season it really becomes less and less about 300 yard games than it does about consistently putting up good numbers with an occasional 300 yard game or two. A solid argument though. This is much different than the 300+ yard argument that has been being pushed in this thread, because 300+ yard games are not confined to the 4300+ yard season passers - they exist at all levels. Therefore, the winning percentage of 300+ yard passing games, and what they actually mean, is a different discussion. Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959 1
TwistofFate Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said: Good. What then do you take away from the data mined by the OP? What is the question you would pose based on that? What would your null hypothesis be? What sample size would you need to disprove the null hypothesis? What statistical methodology would you use? Billsfan1972, same question. What exactly do you think the data set provided by the OP tells you, and based on what kind of statistical methodology? The thing is, if you look at the OP's stuff, which again I commend, he is largely talking about a QB having a single 300 yard game in a certain amount of time, starts, etc. As individuals well versed in stats as you claim, would you not agree that basing a statistical argument on a variable that includes an N = 1 is kind of dicey? I take away from his data large patterns of information pertaining to Qbs and 300 yard games in correlation with the longevity of their careers. It is directly associated with franchise Qbs and their ability win more often, regardless if it's only 1%. His sampling size looks legitimate to me based on my knowledge of the game and the observations of multiple Qbs throughout the years. I have not the time nor the inclination to double check his statistics regarding the matter. By all means if you question the validity, do the leg work and prove him wrong. I don't think its dicey using n=1. We are focused on a singular objective. 300 yard games in relation to longevity of career. With a large enough sample size a pattern will emerge regardless of other external factors. If you care you account for those other variables, I suggest you look towards a more agressive algorithm which accounts for them....Hint..its called DVOA. Whats interesting is if you look at it you'll quickly discover the top Qbs routinely pass for over 300 yards and have a much higher win percentage. Ill help you.... https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019
TwistofFate Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Good post and a completely different discussion than 300 yard games. When you start looking at 4300+ yard passers (which is an average of 268 yards per game), you are talking about only a handful each season (6 per year from 2015-2018) of upper echelon QBs. When you get to the 4800+ - 5000+ yard passers, you are typically talking the few elite (less than 2 per year from 2015-2018). They are usually the same QBs in those groups, with an outlier or two of a QB just having a great year. One could argue that the yardage and winning percentage are the result of the few elite level QBs in the NFL. Everyone may want one on their team; however, the truth is, very few exist. The vast majority of QBs exist under that 4300+ mark (Again, an average of 268 Yards per game) and most of them are under 4000 yards (An average of 250 yards per game). When you drop below 4300 yards, and certainly below 4000 yards a season, the winning percentage drops with it. So, your argument that a higher yardage season equates to more wins is true (more true for those elite QBs); however, under 4500+ yards a season it really becomes less and less about 300 yard games than it does about consistently putting up good numbers with an occasional 300 yard game or two. A solid argument though. This is much different than the 300+ yard argument that has been being pushed in this thread, because 300+ yard games are not confined to the 4300+ yard season passers - they exist at all levels. Therefore, the winning percentage of 300+ yard passing games, and what they actually mean, is a different discussion. You still can't accept passing drives this league and Qbs need to put up big numbers to be successful. Its in black and white in front if your face and you continue to make excuses. 1
Billsfan1972 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 Again it's the eye test and not complicated. 300 yards passing is good, 150 is almost never. When a team has to defend a qb and offense capable of 30+ points and moving the ball through the air that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Heck I bet Washington is thinking if they put up 20 points they could win. When I posted about this not being an elite defense others pointed out that even elite ones put up clunkers...... The Bills offense is so bad at this point that they can't even have an accidental 300 yard game. Pathetic. 1 hour ago, Bandito said: It should be broken down as: Teams that win by throwing over 300 yards and then teams that throw for 300 yards but are playing catch up. If you are leading and throwing that many yards, win percentage is much higher. And what of they do catch up and then still lose? Bills have been blown out an inordinate amount of games under McDermott and still can't make it to 300.
prissythecat Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: Again it's the eye test and not complicated. 300 yards passing is good, 150 is almost never. When a team has to defend a qb and offense capable of 30+ points and moving the ball through the air that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Heck I bet Washington is thinking if they put up 20 points they could win. When I posted about this not being an elite defense others pointed out that even elite ones put up clunkers...... The Bills offense is so bad at this point that they can't even have an accidental 300 yard game. Pathetic. And what of they do catch up and then still lose? Bills have been blown out an inordinate amount of games under McDermott and still can't make it to 300. I have a recommendation . You should change you handle to "300orBust" 1
HappyDays Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Bandito said: If you are leading and throwing that many yards, win percentage is much higher. 2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: And what a statistician would do is remove only the losses Uhhhhh these posts are... something. Yes, if you are leading the game the win percentage is much higher. And yes if you remove the losses, the win percentage also goes up. Thanks. 1
Billsfan1972 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Uhhhhh these posts are... something. Yes, if you are leading the game the win percentage is much higher. And yes if you remove the losses, the win percentage also goes up. Thanks. Yes we get it when both teams throw for 300 yards one wins and one loses (unless a tie). Only you are so smart to figure it out. You can't use the losses in games where both QBs were successful and threw for over 300.
HappyDays Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, dave mcbride said: OK, I just calculated the win-loss records for 4,000+ yards passers, 4,800+ yard passers, and 5,000+ yard passers over the entire history of the league, and also broke out a more recent stretch (2013-2018) when the number of 4,000+ yard passers exploded. These aren't 300 yard games per se, but if someone is throwing for 4000+ yards, you know they're putting up a decent number of 300-yard games and are capable of competing in shootouts. Here goes: 5,000+ yard passers: 105-54-1 (66 percent) 4,800+ yard passers (if you're throwing for 4,800, you're *averaging* 300 ypg): 215-135-2 (63 percent) 4,000+ yard passers: 1,616-1,088-8 (60 percent) 4,000+ yard passers since 2013: 588-451 (57 percent) The Bills have have had one 4,000 yard passer (Bledsoe in 2002; they went 8-8), and their franchise lifetime won-loss record is 420-479-8 (47 percent). Since the beginning of this century--the golden era of big passing numbers--their winning percentage is 42 percent (132-179). (@Mango - fyi) Okay? I don't know what this thread is about anymore. The last few pages have honestly just been a Josh Allen b**** session. Everyone here knows he needs to improve. Everyone also knows, at least I THINK everyone knows, he has made improvements this year. Will he continue to improve? Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think he needs to go from one of the worst in the league at deep throws to at least the league average. That improvement alone will earn him a couple 300 yard passing games even if nothing else about his game changes. But that still won't be enough to make him a top 10 QB. So if you're waiting for a 300 yard game for Josh to prove he belongs, that's not even one of the top 5 metrics I would look at. 300 is a totally arbitrary number anyways. Why 300? It's a round number but it has no specific statistical significance. It's just a talking point. 6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: Yes we get it when both teams throw for 300 yards one wins and one loses (unless a tie). Only you are so smart to figure it out. You can't use the losses in games where both QBs were successful and threw for over 300. Okay... so remove the games where both QBs throw for over 300 yards. That's what a statistician would do. It makes no sense to just remove the losses. I mean, how did you come up with that logic? If you remove those games entirely it ends up being practically the same win percentage.
prissythecat Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Okay? I don't know what this thread is about anymore. The last few pages have honestly just been a Josh Allen b**** session. Everyone here knows he needs to improve. Everyone also knows, at least I THINK everyone knows, he has made improvements this year. Will he continue to improve? Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think he needs to go from one of the worst in the league at deep throws to at least the league average. That improvement alone will earn him a couple 300 yard passing games even if nothing else about his game changes. But that still won't be enough to make him a top 10 QB. So if you're waiting for a 300 yard game for Josh to prove he belongs, that's not even one of the top 5 metrics I would look at. 300 is a totally arbitrary number anyways. Why 300? It's a round number but it has no specific statistical significance. It's just a talking point. Okay... so remove the games where both QBs throw for over 300 yards. That's what a statistician would do. It makes no sense to just remove the losses. I mean, how did you come up with that logic? If you remove those games entirely it ends up being practically the same win percentage. It makes sense since it results in numbers that support his desired conclusion lol. 1
billsfan1959 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 44 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: You still can't accept passing drives this league and Qbs need to put up big numbers to be successful. Its in black and white in front if your face and you continue to make excuses. You really should have parental controls on your computer. Do you actually read anything you respond to, or do you just react emotionally? That was rhetorical by the way. If you want to join the adults and add something substantive to the conversation, we would be happy to listen.
billsfan1959 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Okay? I don't know what this thread is about anymore. The last few pages have honestly just been a Josh Allen b**** session. Everyone here knows he needs to improve. Everyone also knows, at least I THINK everyone knows, he has made improvements this year. Will he continue to improve? Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think he needs to go from one of the worst in the league at deep throws to at least the league average. That improvement alone will earn him a couple 300 yard passing games even if nothing else about his game changes. But that still won't be enough to make him a top 10 QB. So if you're waiting for a 300 yard game for Josh to prove he belongs, that's not even one of the top 5 metrics I would look at. 300 is a totally arbitrary number anyways. Why 300? It's a round number but it has no specific statistical significance. It's just a talking point. This is what this forum has become. A small percentage of posters hijack every thread they can and post some variation of "Allen sucks" over and over and over and over...ad nauseum.... If you deleted everyone of their posts that (1) was some variation of Allen is an awful QB, or (2) reacting emotionally and being aggressive with anyone who disagrees with them, then they would probably have a grand total of 3 - 4 posts remaining between them.
Fan in San Diego Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 After perusing the stats presented. It doesn't look like years to first 300 yard game means all that much. A lot of QB's took years to get there and are considered good, some get there quickly and are considered so so. This is JA's 2nd year , so if he gets a 300 yard game this year it is OK. If it doesn't come till year 5, not so good.
Billsfan1972 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Fan in San Diego said: After perusing the stats presented. It doesn't look like years to first 300 yard game means all that much. A lot of QB's took years to get there and are considered good, some get there quickly and are considered so so. This is JA's 2nd year , so if he gets a 300 yard game this year it is OK. If it doesn't come till year 5, not so good. Actually I didn't think much of the OP's statement. Frankly show me a top-tier NFL QB in today's NFL who did not reach that milestone pretty quick. Heck Russell Wilson may have taken the longest. 32 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Okay? I don't know what this thread is about anymore. The last few pages have honestly just been a Josh Allen b**** session. Everyone here knows he needs to improve. Everyone also knows, at least I THINK everyone knows, he has made improvements this year. Will he continue to improve? Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think he needs to go from one of the worst in the league at deep throws to at least the league average. That improvement alone will earn him a couple 300 yard passing games even if nothing else about his game changes. But that still won't be enough to make him a top 10 QB. So if you're waiting for a 300 yard game for Josh to prove he belongs, that's not even one of the top 5 metrics I would look at. 300 is a totally arbitrary number anyways. Why 300? It's a round number but it has no specific statistical significance. It's just a talking point. Okay... so remove the games where both QBs throw for over 300 yards. That's what a statistician would do. It makes no sense to just remove the losses. I mean, how did you come up with that logic? If you remove those games entirely it ends up being practically the same win percentage. Oh and what a loser Mahomes was in this game..... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811190ram.htm If you can't innately understand the logic & metrics when both pass for 300 yards then there is no helping you, than there is no helping you. Like the poster who claimed that the record this year was 37-35 (ignoring that there was a tie with both throwing for 300 yards). If all 300 yard games ended in ties, then the w-l record for 300 yard passers would be 0-72!!!!!!!!??
billsfan1959 Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: Actually I didn't think much of the OP's statement. Frankly show me a top-tier NFL QB in today's NFL who did not reach that milestone pretty quick. Heck Russell Wilson may have taken the longest. Oh and what a loser Mahomes was in this game..... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811190ram.htm If you can't innately understand the logic & metrics when both pass for 300 yards then there is no helping you, than there is no helping you. Like the poster who claimed that the record this year was 37-35 (ignoring that there was a tie with both throwing for 300 yards). If all 300 yard games ended in ties, then the w-l record for 300 yard passers would be 0-72!!!!!!!!?? Why do you and @TwistofFate have to be so emotional, aggressive, and confrontational in your posts? It's a serious question. There always seems to be some level of anger in the tone of your posts. It is as if you have no ability whatsoever to interact with others in a way that most would consider the "social norm." It's unfortunate, because anytime you do have a legitimate point, it gets lost in all of the aggression.
Dr.Sack Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 What about QBs who have rushed for 100 yards before passing for 300?
TwistofFate Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Why do you and @TwistofFate have to be so emotional, aggressive, and confrontational in your posts? It's a serious question. There always seems to be some level of anger in the tone of your posts. It is as if you have no ability whatsoever to interact with others in a way that most would consider the "social norm." It's unfortunate, because anytime you do have a legitimate point, it gets lost in all of the aggression. Maybe because we are young and full of testosterone and you're old and full of estrogen? Just a ?
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted November 1, 2019 Posted November 1, 2019 5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I’m an Allen critic but I can’t put this all on him. We have a defensive minded head coach and a guy who has never proven to be a good OC. but you’re right. While 300 isn’t the most important numbers, other QBs could be putting up good passing games within our offense. I get Allen is still very young and is far from terrible. But all we ever seem to get is excuses. Why he wasn’t dominant in college. Why he really isn’t inaccurate. Why it’s everyone else fault but his. At some point, why can’t the highest drafted qb in franchise history just carry this team for a whole game? Lot of season left left but I’ve seen this story too often as a Bills fan. Defend mediocre qb play until years later realizing it’s as good as that player can do. You make solid points. And I just want to see a game where Allen is the main reason we win. Not a drive when we scored 7 points all game. Just a good 4 quarters of 28+ points. Is that too much to ask? ...forget SINGULAR 300 yd games......look at the top seasonal passing game totals, including the QB AND OC.......then you can relate talent to coaching.......don't they need to go "hand in hand"?......that statistical analysis far exceeds my pay grade and smarts (LACKING)......
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