20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[TwistofFate]

14 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I don't have a mancrush on Allen, and I couldn't stand Tyrod. Allen has a lot to prove and I can rationally and objectively go through a list of things he hasn't done well or needs to greatly improve on. He is not anywhere near where he needs to be at this point to be the franchise guy for years to come. However, whether or not he is throwing for 300+ yards is so far down the list of important things that its worth is negligible.

 

I'm sorry you are on the losing end of the debate and can no longer intellectually defend your position - to the point where you have to respond from an emotional perspective in calling people ignorant, suffering from dementia, etc. I can send you a cyber hug if that will make you feel better. 

Im far from the losing end of the debate and you are simply too ignorant to see it.   Stat after stat displayed in this thread proves it.  You choose to ignore it. 

 

If you fail to have a dynamic offense that's capable of throwing the football successfully, you aren't going anywhere.  

 

The league standard for a great passing game is 300+ yards.  There is a plethora of 300+ stats and the correlation to wins, super bowl wins and appearances and the longevity of a Qbs career...you flat out ignore it. 

 

I don't need a hug, you need a reality check.   This is 2019, not 1959.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Im far from the losing end of the debate and you are simply too ignorant to see it.   Stat after stat displayed in this thread proves it.  You choose to ignore it. 

 

If you fail to have a dynamic offense that's capable of throwing the football successfully, you aren't going anywhere.  

 

The league standard for a great passing game is 300+ yards.  There is a plethora of 300+ stats and the correlation to wins, super bowl wins and appearances and the longevity of a Qbs career...you flat out ignore it. 

 

I don't need a hug, you need a reality check.   This is 2019, not 1959.

Serious question.  What is your background in statistics?  I have graduate level training in stats, so if you have something similar it would be interesting to have a real, true discussion about the use and misuse of statistics when looking at NFL data.  The OP, again, should be commended for pulling the data out that he pulled. but even he said it should not be used in a predictive sense. 

[TwistofFate]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think the push back is against people blaming Allen for the lack of 300 yard games as if he's the main reason for not hitting that number.

 

If you put Mahommes on this offense in 2018 & 2019 with every thing else the same I'm not convinced he would have a 300 yard game yet.  Are you?

 

I also bet that if Allen had been QBing the Chiefs the last 2 years he would have had multiple 300 yard games.

 

BTW, did you see the Buffalo News breakdown of the Bill's struggles with the screen pass?  This season they are 11/16 for 34 yards throwing screen passes to their RB's, TE's & WR's!  That's an extraordinary lack of production that can not be blamed on Allen.   Hell only attempting these kind of passes twice per game is alarming.  Oh and before you say Allen missed his screen receivers those incompletions were all the result of deliberate throwaways because the D was sitting on the play.

 

As for having a "man crush" on Allen being the reason we defend him, well all I can say is that if Allen doesn't work out the Bills are set back another 3 - 5 years.  And who wants that?  Only someone suffering from dementia wouldn't give Allen until the end of his 3rd year to see if he's the guy.  And if he isn't then we're back to square one in the draft. 

 

So yea we desperately want him to succeed and this involves giving him the benefit of the doubt.  And that's not to hard to do when you see numbers like how many and how crappy the Bills screen pass game is.

 

 

 

 

Sorry, but I disagree with your assessment.   Mahomes on this team and he easily has 300+ yards multiple times this year.  

 

Buffalos receivers are more than capable.

 

The only thing holding back this offense is Allen.  Fumbles, picks, over throwing recievers, missing recievers, and unable to beat a blitz with his arm. 

[billsfan1959]

33 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It's worse than that; they are suffering from religious delusions.

 

For whatever reason, most Bills fans who participate at online message boards like this simply refuse to view things objectively.

 

It's a religion for them and they view most things as a matter of faith.

 

A lot of them also can't distinguish between that which is, and that which is what I wish it to be.

 

I doubt very much that anybody here worships the game of football, or that it is the center of their faith rather than God, some divine being, or spirituality. I don't think you quite understand the concept of religious delusions. I can recommend some good psychology books that could help you. 

 

15 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Im far from the losing end of the debate and you are simply too ignorant to see it.   Stat after stat displayed in this thread proves it.  You choose to ignore it. 

 

If you fail to have a dynamic offense that's capable of throwing the football successfully, you aren't going anywhere.  

 

The league standard for a great passing game is 300+ yards.  There is a plethora of 300+ stats and the correlation to wins, super bowl wins and appearances and the longevity of a Qbs career...you flat out ignore it. 

 

I don't need a hug, you need a reality check.   This is 2019, not 1959.

 

I rest my case Mr. Emotional. 

 

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Serious question.  What is your background in statistics?  I have graduate level training in stats, so if you have something similar it would be interesting to have a real, true discussion about the use and misuse of statistics when looking at NFL data.  The OP, again, should be commended for pulling the data out that he pulled. but even he said it should not be used in a predictive sense. 

 

I have asked for them to provide any statistical analyses regarding their assertions.

 

Still waiting...

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[TwistofFate]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Serious question.  What is your background in statistics?  I have graduate level training in stats, so if you have something similar it would be interesting to have a real, true discussion about the use and misuse of statistics when looking at NFL data.  The OP, again, should be commended for pulling the data out that he pulled. but even he said it should not be used in a predictive sense. 

I manage a multi-million dollar company.   I deal with statisics and numbers all day, every day. 

 

Statistics drive everything from ordering, to receiving, to sales, to employees production. I understand clearly how stats work.  I'll tell you this, 1% here 2% there MATTERS. 

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Sorry, but I disagree with your assessment.   Mahomes on this team and he easily has 300+ yards multiple times this year.  

 

Buffalos receivers are more than capable.

 

The only thing holding back this offense is Allen.  Fumbles, picks, over throwing recievers, missing recievers, and unable to beat a blitz with his arm. 

I’m an Allen critic but I can’t put this all on him.  We have a defensive minded head coach and a guy who has never proven to be a good OC.

 

but you’re right.  While 300 isn’t the most important numbers, other QBs could be putting up good passing games within our offense.  I get Allen is still very young and is far from terrible.  But all we ever seem to get is excuses.  Why he wasn’t dominant in college. Why he really isn’t inaccurate. Why it’s everyone else fault but his.  At some point, why can’t the highest drafted qb in franchise history just carry this team for a whole game?  

 

Lot of season left left but I’ve seen this story too often as a Bills fan. Defend mediocre qb play until years later realizing it’s as good as that player can do. 

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I didn't twist anything Biscuit. You stated the Bills should join the rest of the NFL in throwing the ball. Their pass to run ratio among  winning teams in the top 5. How effective they are at throwing the ball is a different story. In that respect, I agree they are not where I feel they should be if they want to compete at a championship level.

 

However, I am not hung up on the arbitrary 300+ yard game as a barometer of anything. The vast majority of those games are done with a 40+ attempts and the 300+ yard games with less than 40 attempts include at least one or two 50 - 60+ yard completions. Allen's strength this year is not the deep ball. I have no idea what the issue is; however, it just isn't there. Until it is, or until we see receivers turn short /intermediate passes into 60-70 yard gains, we are probably are not going to see that 300 yard game.

 

What Allen has done, is greatly improve his short game and accuracy in the short to intermediate range. So much so, that he is one of the higher rated QBs in passes within 25 yards of the LOS.  Rather than a 300 yard game, I would like to see better ball security and more consistency across an entire game. It is also not all on Allen. I would like to see, less mistakes and penalties (especially in critical moments); more separation by receivers and someone other than the top one or two receivers who can actually reliably catch the ball (or at least not drop the critical ones); more play designs in that 15-25 yard range (which I believe is his strength and could lead to those 300+ yard games); and a better run game to support the passing game - all of which is as much on coaching and other players as it is on Allen. 

 

I would also like to see a few games of turning Allen loose to the tune of 40-45 pass attempts.

 

He is a long way from where I would like him to be; however, he has shown me the potential and I think he can get there. It is just going to take some time. 

 

 

You make solid points. And I just want to see a game where Allen is the main reason we win. Not a drive when we scored 7 points all game. Just a good 4 quarters of 28+ points. Is that too much to ask?

 

 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

 

The difference is extremely minor. Earlier I posted that out of 550 games from 2015-2019, the win percentage was 51.6% for 300+ yard passers. If you removed 100 games (this is just an estimate) where both passers threw for 300+, that means you would eliminate 50 wins and 50 losses. That would leave a win percentage of 52%. It's pretty much the same.

[Billsfan1972]

I broke down the 2019 #'s for 300 yard passers and games where the result was less then 7 points.  I then showed where both QBs threw for 300.

 

How about taking those he's and breaking them down further if I am so wrong.

10 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I manage a multi-million dollar company.   I deal with statisics and numbers all day, every day. 

 

Statistics drive everything from ordering, to receiving, to sales, to employees production. I understand clearly how stats work.  I'll tell you this, 1% here 2% there MATTERS. 

And math and stats is what I do all day every day too.  An actuary too if that matters.

 

Bills fan is why I'm here however.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I broke down the 2019 #'s for 300 yard passers and games where the result was less then 7 points.  I then showed where both QBs threw for 300.

 

Why would you restrict your sample size that much? I did 2015-2019.

[teef]

This thread is simply wonderful.  It contains some of the best and brightest of this board. Nicely done all. 

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, teef said:

This thread is simply wonderful.  It contains some of the best and brightest of this board. Nicely done all. 

Pretty pathetic actually.....

[CincyBillsFan]

34 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Sorry, but I disagree with your assessment.   Mahomes on this team and he easily has 300+ yards multiple times this year.  

 

Buffalos receivers are more than capable.

 

The only thing holding back this offense is Allen.  Fumbles, picks, over throwing recievers, missing recievers, and unable to beat a blitz with his arm. 

 

Well we will have to agree to disagree then.

 

I think any QB in the NFL would have struggled to hit 300 yards passing with last seasons offense and team decision making. 

 

They would have had a better chance this year but not by much. 

 

In the game against Green bay KC had a journeyman QB hit 24/36 passes for 267 yards & 2 TD's throwing to the Chiefs stable of skill players.  This was against a solid defense in GB.  Allen would have had multiple 300 yard games if he was the Chiefs QB the last 2 seasons.

 

To look at our RB's & TE's and say the only thing holding up the offense is Allen is not supported by the evidence.  I would have thought this teams dismal screen pass production would have been enough to convince folks the problem is NOT with Allen.  But I guess that's wishful thinking when an agenda is involved.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why would you restrict your sample size that much? I did 2015-2019.

Missed where you compiled games where both QBs threw for 300 and games decided by less then a TD?  Wins and losses and addition is pretty simple to do.

 

As stated if Allen is not the answer I want to know sooner rather then later.  The issue to me is coaching and that is the problem.

 

Remember Brady threw for 505 in the Superbowl and lost so 300 is meaningless........  Oh and last year's defensive struggle was infinitely more fun to watch.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[oldmanfan]

35 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I manage a multi-million dollar company.   I deal with statisics and numbers all day, every day. 

 

Statistics drive everything from ordering, to receiving, to sales, to employees production. I understand clearly how stats work.  I'll tell you this, 1% here 2% there MATTERS. 

Good.  What then do you take away from the data mined by the OP?  What is the question you would pose based on that?  What would your null hypothesis be?  What sample size would you need to disprove the null hypothesis?  What statistical methodology would you use? 

 

Billsfan1972, same question.  What exactly do you think the data set provided by the OP tells you, and based on what kind of statistical methodology?  

 

The thing is, if you look at the OP's stuff, which again I commend, he is largely talking about a QB having a single 300 yard game in a certain amount of time, starts, etc.  As individuals well versed in stats as you claim, would you not agree that basing  a statistical argument on a variable that includes an N = 1 is kind of dicey?

Edited November 1, 2019 by oldmanfan

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

It's worse than that; they are suffering from religious delusions.

 

For whatever reason, most Bills fans who participate at online message boards like this simply refuse to view things objectively.

 

It's a religion for them and they view most things as a matter of faith.

 

A lot of them also can't distinguish between that which is, and that which is what I wish it to be.

 

 

 

Listening to anyone engaged in an in-depth discussion about the toy department of life attack others for a lack of realism makes me want to laugh laugh laugh. 

[Billsfan1972]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Good.  What then do you take away from the data mined by the OP?  What is the question you would pose based on that?  What would your null hypothesis be?  What sample size would you need to disprove the null hypothesis?  What statistical methodology would you use? 

 

Billsfan1972, same question.  What exactly do you think the data set provided by the OP tells you, and based on what kind of statistical methodology?  

Geez how many times have I parsed the 2019 300 yard games to show how that throwing for 300 often means close losses when the other qb too threw for 300 (or not), in addition to needing 300 to win a tight game or resulted in a close loss?

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Geez how many times have I parsed the 2019 300 years games to show how that throwing for 300 often means close losses when the other qb too threw for 300, in addition to needing 300 to win a tight game or resulted in a close loss?

You're an actuary.  That should mean you understand statistics.  What statistical test have you used to show that this data has any statistical validity?   You do this every day, right?  does your data mean anything from a statistical perspective?

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Missed where you compiled games where both QBs threw for 300 and games decided by less then a TD?  Wins and losses and addition is pretty simple to do.

 

As stated if Allen is not the answer I want to know sooner rather then later.  The issue to me is coaching and that is the problem.

 

Remember Brady threw for 505 in the Superbowl and lost so 300 is meaningless........

 

We would all like to know ASAP.   If Allen isn't the guy I like Joe Burrow a lot.

 

But the reality is that given the variables involved there is NO way you can truly judge most NFL QB's in less then 3 years.  Everything from the surrounding talent to the coaching to the teams offensive philosophy impacts how accurately and quickly you can determine if a QB is going to make it.  That's a tremendous amount of variability for EACH QB.  And variability of this kind humbles statistics of every kind. 

 

The only time you might be able to get a quick read is if they're either put into a disastrous position and you ruin them (see Josh Rosen) or they are truly awful (see Ryan Leaf).  Or you can get an early read on whether they are that "guy" if you put them in a great position like Mahommes or even Lamar Jackson was.

 

Or take Kyler Murray.  He came into a tremendous opportunity and is running the same basic offense he ran in college.  More importantly he has a coach who is a proponent/creator of the offensive philosophy that he's being asked to execute.  Let's say the Bills didn't draft Allen last year and took Murray this year.  With our current skill players and offensive philosophy Murray would be teetering on looking like a bust.  His numbers would be awful.

 

The reality is that for the overwhelming majority of young QB's it takes 3 - 5 years.  Allen has shown enough to me to indicate that he's definitely got the potential to be that "guy".  That means he has to get the full 3 - 5 years or we just keep running in place as a franchise waiting for QB lightening to strike. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

The difference is extremely minor. Earlier I posted that out of 550 games from 2015-2019, the win percentage was 51.6% for 300+ yard passers. If you removed 100 games (this is just an estimate) where both passers threw for 300+, that means you would eliminate 50 wins and 50 losses. That would leave a win percentage of 52%. It's pretty much the same.

OK, I just calculated the win-loss records for 4,000+ yards passers, 4,800+ yard passers, and 5,000+ yard passers over the entire history of the league, and also broke out a more recent stretch (2013-2018) when the number of 4,000+ yard passers exploded. These aren't 300 yard games per se, but if someone is throwing for 4000+ yards, you know they're putting up a decent number of 300-yard games and are capable of competing in shootouts.

 

Here goes:

 

5,000+ yard passers: 105-54-1 (66 percent)

 

4,800+ yard passers (if you're throwing for 4,800, you're *averaging* 300 ypg): 215-135-2 (63 percent)

 

4,000+ yard passers: 1,616-1,088-8 (60 percent)

 

4,000+ yard passers since 2013: 588-451 (57 percent)

The Bills have have had one 4,000 yard passer (Bledsoe in 2002; they went 8-8), and their franchise lifetime won-loss record is 420-479-8 (47 percent).  Since the beginning of this century--the golden era of big passing numbers--their winning percentage is 42 percent (132-179). 

 

(@Mango - fyi)

Edited November 1, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Billsfan1972]

45 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The difference is extremely minor. Earlier I posted that out of 550 games from 2015-2019, the win percentage was 51.6% for 300+ yard passers. If you removed 100 games (this is just an estimate) where both passers threw for 300+, that means you would eliminate 50 wins and 50 losses. That would leave a win percentage of 52%. It's pretty much the same.

And what a statistician would do is remove only the losses