20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

And the winning percentage was just one game over .500.  So what does it mean?  What relevance does it have?

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

Perhaps you should look up the term "projection"

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

No it isn't, see posts above.  NO, KC, GB.....  MEH....  17-14 is the way to go......  Biulls won too 14-7 so there, it does work......? 

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

 

5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No it isn't, see posts above.  NO, KC, GB.....  MEH....  17-14 is the way to go......  Biulls won too 14-7 so there, it does work......? 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

 

EDIT: BTW, every one of those teams below the Bills run the ball more than they throw it.

 

Hmmmm....

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I am going to be harsh here, and excuse for doing so, but when you say there are people here who seem Ok with losing you are being completely ridiculous.  Just because people do not agree with your desire for more exciting games does not mean they are excited about losing.  The only people on this board that would be OK with losing (and there are a few) are those who would rather see their team lose so they can say they were right about McD, or Allen, or Beane , or whomever.  and that to me is just pathetic.

 

As for "The Process", I have asked you (I think you) this many times and have never gotten a clear response:  Name me successful organizations with our successful processes.  Again, just because you don't like the way this team goes about its business does not mean it's bad.

 

Your bias is shown in your last paragraph:  you can't stand more defensive games.  You don't like it.  To which I can only say:  too bad.  Because right now the Bills are 5-2, and in position to get to the playoffs.  And using their philosophy and process and whatever got them their first playoff berth in 17 years a couple years ago.

 

You have a decision to make as a fan:  whether you're more interested in style, or wins.  I know which side of that I come down on, every time.  I am a defense fan, but if the Bills were winning every game 42-38 with 500 yards passing a game, I'd be on board.  Sadly, I think I know which side you come down on.

 

 

Like football organization? Or company in general? Because I have seen you post this a few times, and mentioned how important culture is to any successful organization. 

I worked for a fortune 100 company that I thought had a pretty toxic culture. I work for a company approaching the 1B that has horrendous process, bordering on no process at all. I manage a single account/vendor that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and they have trouble getting out of their own way. I know Olympic gold medal coaches who run a toxic environment. I can name 100 instances of the inverse, businesses that are buttoned up, and close down. Companies that are great to work for, but have trouble getting by.  Coaches that develop great team culture and buy in, but can't actually coach their sport out of a paper bag. 

 

The point is, there are issues everywhere, with everything, everybody brings their own baggage, issues, inefficiencies to the table, and everybody has their own secret sauce as well. I wouldn't paint with such a broad brush, and assume that everybody is doing ABC.  

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

And the Bills do it without too much success...... 

 

And please don't point to the 5-2 record.

 

This is about 300 yard games.

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the Bills do it without too much success...... 

 

And please don't point to the 5-2 record.

 

This is about 300 yard games.

The poster I replied to said the Bills should try to join the rest of the league in throwing the football. You agreed with that poster. I pointed out that among all the winning teams, the Bills are somewhere around 6th in more passes than runs.

 

So, inspite of the fact that everything for you is about 300 yard games, the actual post I was replying to, and that you agreed with, was not.

 

And, of course, let's not ever point to a 5-2 record, as that says far less about this team than the fact they have not produced a 300+ yard passing game.

 

You just aren't very good at this, are you?

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

No. It's not.

Yes it is. 

[CincyBillsFan]

How in hell is Allen supposed to throw for 300 yards if this damn team can't execute simple screen passes?  Have you folks seen the article in the Buffalo News detailing the AMAZING production we have had throwing RB screen and TE/WR screen passes?  Here's what we've done this season:

 

*  5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!

 

*  6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!

 

And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage or an INT on the play.  If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is.  I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness.  Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense. 

 

Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs? 

 

This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems.  In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our inability to execute simple screen passes.  How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes?  75% of his total! 

 

Take another look at those numbers.  The last thing we should be crying about are the lack of 300 yard games.  That's the least of the passing games problems.  Not being able to execute simple screen passes puts enormous pressure on a 2nd year, raw project QB.  Throw in our less then explosive running game and this whole thread is barking up the wrong tree IMO.

 

We won't see many 300 yard games until we surround Allen with the talent to actually achieve this milestone.  I just hope we don't ruin a promising young QB in the process.

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Like football organization? Or company in general? Because I have seen you post this a few times, and mentioned how important culture is to any successful organization. 

I worked for a fortune 100 company that I thought had a pretty toxic culture. I work for a company approaching the 1B that has horrendous process, bordering on no process at all. I manage a single account/vendor that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and they have trouble getting out of their own way. I know Olympic gold medal coaches who run a toxic environment. I can name 100 instances of the inverse, businesses that are buttoned up, and close down. Companies that are great to work for, but have trouble getting by.  Coaches that develop great team culture and buy in, but can't actually coach their sport out of a paper bag. 

 

The point is, there are issues everywhere, with everything, everybody brings their own baggage, issues, inefficiencies to the table, and everybody has their own secret sauce as well. I wouldn't paint with such a broad brush, and assume that everybody is doing ABC.  

I think in general.  Successful organizations have cultures in place to drive their success.  They also have cultures that drive that success.  Is every process, every culture of successful organizations the same?  No.  I have seen more autocratic companies work well, I have seen more team oriented cultures where management actively seeks input (like where I work now) thrive.  I have seen each work poorly. 

 

The key is that, regardless of the processes or culture in place, that the organization remain faithful to their processes, and that employees recognize expectations and buy in to meeting those expectations.   Different employees work better or worse in different cultures.  I, for one, could never work in a culture that is autocratic in nature.  The Fortune 100 company you refer to I would not work well in if their culture was toxic; seems the same for you. 

 

In terms of the NFL, coaches have to know football of course, and know how to teach concepts, especially assistants.  A HC, to me is a CEO, and a big part of what he needs to do is establish a cl=ulture that fosters winning. And as with business, that can take different forms.  I think McD does so by constantly setting an expectation that those associated with the team, from coaches to water boys, have football as their focus, and seek continual improvement.

I just looked at the OP again, and note something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has aa bout 4.y5 years and /or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

How in hell is Allen supposed to throw for 300 yards if this damn team can't execute simple screen passes?  Have you folks seen the article in the Buffalo News detailing the AMAZING production we have had throwing RB screen and TE/WR screen passes?  Here's what we've done this season:

 

*  5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!

 

*  6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!

 

And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage or an INT on the play.  If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is.  I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness.  Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense. 

 

Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs? 

 

This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems.  In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our inability to execute simple screen passes.  How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes?  75% of his total! 

 

Take another look at those numbers.  The last thing we should be crying about are the lack of 300 yard games.  That's the least of the passing games problems.  Not being able to execute simple screen passes puts enormous pressure on a 2nd year, raw project QB.  Throw in our less then explosive running game and this whole thread is barking up the wrong tree IMO.

 

We won't see many 300 yard games until we surround Allen with the talent to actually achieve this milestone.  I just hope we don't ruin a promising young QB in the process.

 

 

 

 

Agreed and say it over & over, that we need to see this Offense play for 4 quarters.  The OC I think is terrible, the overall coaching philosophy & the play between the 20's & no mistakes football has gone the way of the dodo......

 

I want to see what the Bills have in Allen & have no confidence that this staff is doing the job.

[oldmanfan]

I just looked at the OP again, and noted something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has about 4.5 years and/or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

[C.Biscuit97]

32 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

 

EDIT: BTW, every one of those teams below the Bills run the ball more than they throw it.

 

Hmmmm....

Come on 59. You twisted those stats.  Those are the top 10 in attempts, which would be the bad teams because they have to throw more because they are losing. 

 

For the actual passing stats that matter, yards, it’s a much different list.

 

Atl - their offense is not the reason they are losing

KC - ?

dal - ? and it’s funny because they have one of the best rbs and a lot of people crap on Dak

Rams - 5-3, SB runner up

Lions - ok

LAC - unluckiest team on the planet

NE - Brady sucks 

GB - 7-1 ?

TB - Winston kills them with turnovers 

Hou - playoff team

NO - 7-1 and freaking Teddy Bridgewater is capable of monster passing games

 

?

4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

Allen is a lot closer to Tyrod than Mahomes.

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

I don't think any one who continues to debate here is doing so to protecting Allen. 

 

They are protecting The Process & McD who has coached 40 games for the Bills & not had a QB throw for 300 yards.  Last I checked 8 weeks into the season only Pittsburgh (Big Ben injured) and the dumpster fire Miami (who did throw for 272 vs. Buffalo) are the only teams this year outside Buffalo who haven't. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

I don't have a mancrush on Allen, and I couldn't stand Tyrod. Allen has a lot to prove and I can rationally and objectively go through a list of things he hasn't done well or needs to greatly improve on. He is not anywhere near where he needs to be at this point to be the franchise guy for years to come. However, whether or not he is throwing for 300+ yards is so far down the list of important things that its worth is negligible.

 

I'm sorry you are on the losing end of the debate and can no longer intellectually defend your position - to the point where you have to respond from an emotional perspective in calling people ignorant, suffering from dementia, etc. I can send you a cyber hug if that will make you feel better. 

[Nextmanup]

11 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

It's worse than that; they are suffering from religious delusions.

 

For whatever reason, most Bills fans who participate at online message boards like this simply refuse to view things objectively.

 

It's a religion for them and they view most things as a matter of faith.

 

A lot of them also can't distinguish between that which is, and that which is what I wish it to be.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I just looked at the OP again, and noted something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has about 4.5 years and/or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

Let me correct this:  the OP also includes in his data analysis Qbs that were drafted from 2017-2019 that have had at least one start.

 

so, again while I commend the OP for his work, I review scientific manuscripts for publication, and if the OP submitted this data set for publication I'd have to reject it.  Because of the sampling methodology.  To compare Qbs with at least 32 starts or 6 years in the league with, say a 2019 draftee with a few starts, is an apples and oranges comparison.  The OP acknowledges you can't really make projections base on the data he's extracted, and folks advocating that should pay heed.

[CincyBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

 

I think the push back is against people blaming Allen for the lack of 300 yard games as if he's the main reason for not hitting that number.

 

If you put Mahommes on this offense in 2018 & 2019 with every thing else the same I'm not convinced he would have a 300 yard game yet.  Are you?

 

I also bet that if Allen had been QBing the Chiefs the last 2 years he would have had multiple 300 yard games.

 

BTW, did you see the Buffalo News breakdown of the Bill's struggles with the screen pass?  This season they are 11/16 for 34 yards throwing screen passes to their RB's, TE's & WR's!  That's an extraordinary lack of production that can not be blamed on Allen.   Hell only attempting these kind of passes twice per game is alarming.  Oh and before you say Allen missed his screen receivers those incompletions were all the result of deliberate throwaways because the D was sitting on the play.

 

As for having a "man crush" on Allen being the reason we defend him, well all I can say is that if Allen doesn't work out the Bills are set back another 3 - 5 years.  And who wants that?  Only someone suffering from dementia wouldn't give Allen until the end of his 3rd year to see if he's the guy.  And if he isn't then we're back to square one in the draft. 

 

So yea we desperately want him to succeed and this involves giving him the benefit of the doubt.  And that's not to hard to do when you see numbers like how many and how crappy the Bills screen pass game is.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[billsfan1959]

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on 59. You twisted those stats.  Those are the top 10 in attempts, which would be the bad teams because they have to throw more because they are losing. 

 

For the actual passing stats that matter, yards, it’s a much different list.

 

Atl - their offense is not the reason they are losing

KC - ?

dal - ? and it’s funny because they have one of the best rbs and a lot of people crap on Dak

Rams - 5-3, SB runner up

Lions - ok

LAC - unluckiest team on the planet

NE - Brady sucks 

GB - 7-1 ?

TB - Winston kills them with turnovers 

Hou - playoff team

NO - 7-1 and freaking Teddy Bridgewater is capable of monster passing games

 

?

Allen is a lot closer to Tyrod than Mahomes.

I didn't twist anything Biscuit. You stated the Bills should join the rest of the NFL in throwing the ball. Their pass to run ratio among  winning teams in the top 5. How effective they are at throwing the ball is a different story. In that respect, I agree they are not where I feel they should be if they want to compete at a championship level.

 

However, I am not hung up on the arbitrary 300+ yard game as a barometer of anything. The vast majority of those games are done with a 40+ attempts and the 300+ yard games with less than 40 attempts include at least one or two 50 - 60+ yard completions. Allen's strength this year is not the deep ball. I have no idea what the issue is; however, it just isn't there. Until it is, or until we see receivers turn short /intermediate passes into 60-70 yard gains, we are probably are not going to see that 300 yard game.

 

What Allen has done, is greatly improve his short game and accuracy in the short to intermediate range. So much so, that he is one of the higher rated QBs in passes within 25 yards of the LOS.  Rather than a 300 yard game, I would like to see better ball security and more consistency across an entire game. It is also not all on Allen. I would like to see, less mistakes and penalties (especially in critical moments); more separation by receivers and someone other than the top one or two receivers who can actually reliably catch the ball (or at least not drop the critical ones); more play designs in that 15-25 yard range (which I believe is his strength and could lead to those 300+ yard games); and a better run game to support the passing game - all of which is as much on coaching and other players as it is on Allen. 

 

I would also like to see a few games of turning Allen loose to the tune of 40-45 pass attempts.

 

He is a long way from where I would like him to be; however, he has shown me the potential and I think he can get there. It is just going to take some time. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959