20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[billsfan1959]

55 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Maybe because we are young and full of testosterone and you're old and full of estrogen? 

 

Just a ? 

Silly me. Ask a child a question...

 

So, one of those hypermasculine guys? You do know the psychological underpinnings of that, right?

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Livinginthepast]

On 10/30/2019 at 10:54 PM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

300 yards passing just doesn’t mean that much. I don’t understand why Bills fans are obsessed with it. Just win the games. Most of the big passing days are teams playing catch up from behind. Just beat people. Who cares what the passing yards are? I think Matt Schaub threw for like 450 yards last week. They were getting beat all day and in the end, it means nothing. I get that people assume it’s a negative because it’s much more common then we see but we haven’t really needed it. That’s probably a good thing.

We have been complaining about this since the days of Flutie. We won ugly a lot back then with a somewhat anemic offense and people still complained because we weren't lighting it up like Kelly did. I couldn't care less about 300 yds. passing if we win.

[bru_bills]

People are throwing around all kinds of different numbers in this thread, and some of them seem to have questionable accuracy and/or small sample sizes.

 

I pulled some data myself to see how the # of passing yards relates to (1) your chance of winning the game, and (2) the # of points you score per game.

 

I wanted to make sure I had a big enough sample size, so I used 2370 games from 2015-2019 (all games excluding ties). All data came from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. Here's the output data in table format - https://i.postimg.cc/529576Wt/pts-data-2.png. 

 

For games where they had <200 passing yards, teams won 44% of their games & scored an avg. of 17.7 pts per game. For 200-299 passing yards, teams won 52% of their games & scored an avg. of 23.3 pts per game. For 300+ passing yards, teams won 55% of their games & scored an avg. of 29.0 pts per game.

 

To me, it looks like passing yards have a strong relationship with winning, and a very strong relationship with the # of points you score. If you're passing for less than 300 yards in a game, your chances of winning are only ~50% on average. That's not to say it's impossible to build a team that has low passing yards and wins a lot, but it probably requires you to have an amazing defense and running game (this year's 49ers are a nice example - averaging only 219 pass yds/game but scoring a whopping 29 pts/game).

 

So far this season, the Bills are averaging 215 pass yds/game and scoring 19 pts/game. The stats above suggest that it's tough to win many games with those kinds of numbers.

 

Edited November 2, 2019 by bru_bills

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, bru_bills said:

People are throwing around all kinds of different numbers in this thread, and some of them seem to have questionable accuracy and/or small sample sizes.

 

I pulled some data myself to see how the # of passing yards relates to (1) your chance of winning the game, and (2) the # of points you score per game.

 

I wanted to make sure I had a big enough sample size, so I used 2370 games from 2015-2019 (all games excluding ties). All data came from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. Here's the output data in table format - https://i.postimg.cc/529576Wt/pts-data-2.png. 

 

For games where they had <200 passing yards, teams won 44% of their games & scored an avg. of 17.7 pts per game. For 200-299 passing yards, teams won 52% of their games & scored an avg. of 23.3 pts per game. For 300+ passing yards, teams won 55% of their games & scored an avg. of 29.0 pts per game.

 

To me, it looks like passing yards have a strong relationship with winning, and a very strong relationship with the # of points you score. If you're passing for less than 300 yards in a game, your chances of winning are only ~50% on average. That's not to say it's impossible to build a team that has low passing yards and wins a lot, but it probably requires you to have an amazing defense and running game (this year's 49ers are a nice example - averaging only 219 pass yds/game but scoring a whopping 29 pts/game).

 

So far this season, the Bills are averaging 215 pass yds/game and scoring 19 pts/game. The stats above suggest that it's tough to win many games with those kinds of numbers.

 

Good article too in the Ringer

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/10/30/20939534/midseason-nfl-2019-decade-defining-quarterbacks

 

Good Info here too....

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm

 

I find those saying we aren't running the ball enough perplexing when the Bills are near the bottom (bottom half) in passing and almost every game has been close.

 

 

[Rob's House]

Here's the bottom line:

 

Josh Allen has not yet thrown for 300 yds, and my emotional well being is staked on him being the guy. Therefore it doesn't matter if he can. In fact, it might be better if he can't.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

why would they create a story as such? competition for JA?

 

it's a BN article so you have to pay to read it. those that do may want to share some of this writers insight on competition for JA after a season and a half?

 

Would the Bills consider adding competition for Josh Allen through the draft?

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

why would they create a story as such? competition for JA?

 

it's a BN article so you have to pay to read it. those that do may want to share some of this writers insight on competition for JA after a season and a half?

 

Would the Bills consider adding competition for Josh Allen through the draft?

 

I'm glad you posted the link because the writer isn't advocating that at all. You are being misleading.

 

Skurski is not advocating that they should draft a QB or have competion for Allen - he actually says that would not be a good idea. It is simply a compilation of Skurski's responses to reader email, particularly about how bad Josh Allen is. Here is a sampling of questions:

 

"If we had drafted Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson two years ago, or Lamar Jackson last year, would we be a better team right now...?"

"Josh Allen has been one of the worse quarterbacks in the league again this year. At what point are we actually allowed to talk about it?

"Is Josh Allen seeing ghosts?"

"Do you think it’s too early for the Bills’ management team to start wondering if they missed when they drafted Josh Allen?"

"This regime should be willing to draft competition for Josh Allen this offseason. That’s where past regimes have failed. Do you anticipate the Bills staying all-in on Allen beyond this season? He’s not worthy of being considered a franchise quarterback from my standpoint."

 

Skurski doesn't think they should draft another QB or create competition, nor does he agree that Allen is a bad QB. He says exactly what most of us are saying: Allen has a lot of room for improvement and he hasn't had enough time yet for Skurski to determine if he will be a franchise QB. He needs to show considerable improvemet over the remainder of this year and next year. If he doesn't, then it will be time for some tough decisions.

 

Nice try. Fits in perfectly with the tenor of some of the posters in this thread

 

The headline of the article is from a reader's email. Did you actually read the article before linking it, or did you just like the headline?

Edited November 2, 2019 by billsfan1959

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I'm glad you posted the link because the writer isn't advocating that at all. You are being misleading.

 

Skurski is not advocating that they should draft a QB or have competion for Allen - he actually says that would not be a good idea. It is simply a compilation of Skurski's responses to reader email, particularly about how bad Josh Allen is. Here is a sampling of questions:

 

"If we had drafted Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson two years ago, or Lamar Jackson last year, would we be a better team right now...?"

"Josh Allen has been one of the worse quarterbacks in the league again this year. At what point are we actually allowed to talk about it?

"Is Josh Allen seeing ghosts?"

"Do you think it’s too early for the Bills’ management team to start wondering if they missed when they drafted Josh Allen?"

"This regime should be willing to draft competition for Josh Allen this offseason. That’s where past regimes have failed. Do you anticipate the Bills staying all-in on Allen beyond this season? He’s not worthy of being considered a franchise quarterback from my standpoint."

 

Skurski doesn't think they should draft another QB or create competition, nor does he agree that Allen is a bad QB. He says exactly what most of us are saying: Allen has a lot of room for improvement and he hasn't had enough time yet for Skurski to determine if he will be a franchise QB. He needs to show considerable improvemet over the remainder of this year and next year. If he doesn't, then it will be time for some tough decisions.

 

Nice try. Fits in perfectly with the tenor of some of the posters in this thread

 

The headline of the article is from a reader's email. Did you actually read the article before linking it, or did you just like the headline?

just the link in hoping someone would get the gist of the article. thanks for the review.

[MDH]

On 10/31/2019 at 2:50 PM, Nextmanup said:

 

 

I truly hope Pegula puts pressure on things to draw definitive conclusions about Allen after THIS season.

 

It's been long enough.

 

 

 

 

I can't say that I've been overly impressed with Allen thus far but this is a bit much. Allen was/is a project QB and expecting him to hit his stride right out of the gate was a pie in the sky dream.

 

Allen should be judged as a finished product when we see him plateau. We haven't seen that yet. There was a jump after his injury last year and another jump so far this year. No, he's not a good QB right now but he also is improving fairly quickly. You don't throw a QB away until he fails to continue improving and you know that you're pretty close to the finished product.

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, MDH said:

Allen should be judged as a finished product when we see him plateau. We haven't seen that yet. There was a jump after his injury last year and another jump so far this year. No, he's not a good QB right now but he also is improving fairly quickly. You don't throw a QB away until he fails to continue improving and you know that you're pretty close to the finished product.

 

This is where I'm at with him. This past offseason he made noticeable improvements to his game, especially with short and touch throws. This offseason I expect him to work on his deep throw and continue to work on reading the field quickly. I also anticipate Beane making some kind of move for a true #1 WR whether it be in FA or the draft. Next year is the show me year for Allen. If he doesn't make a big enough jump next year he likely never will. But he'll get his opportunity to prove it. Zero chance they move on from him until then.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

just the link in hoping someone would get the gist of the article. thanks for the review.

My apologies for insinuating something I shouldn't have. 

[SinceThe70s]

13 hours ago, bru_bills said:

People are throwing around all kinds of different numbers in this thread, and some of them seem to have questionable accuracy and/or small sample sizes.

 

I pulled some data myself to see how the # of passing yards relates to (1) your chance of winning the game, and (2) the # of points you score per game.

 

I wanted to make sure I had a big enough sample size, so I used 2370 games from 2015-2019 (all games excluding ties). All data came from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. Here's the output data in table format - https://i.postimg.cc/529576Wt/pts-data-2.png. 

 

For games where they had <200 passing yards, teams won 44% of their games & scored an avg. of 17.7 pts per game. For 200-299 passing yards, teams won 52% of their games & scored an avg. of 23.3 pts per game. For 300+ passing yards, teams won 55% of their games & scored an avg. of 29.0 pts per game.

 

To me, it looks like passing yards have a strong relationship with winning, and a very strong relationship with the # of points you score. If you're passing for less than 300 yards in a game, your chances of winning are only ~50% on average. That's not to say it's impossible to build a team that has low passing yards and wins a lot, but it probably requires you to have an amazing defense and running game (this year's 49ers are a nice example - averaging only 219 pass yds/game but scoring a whopping 29 pts/game).

 

So far this season, the Bills are averaging 215 pass yds/game and scoring 19 pts/game. The stats above suggest that it's tough to win many games with those kinds of numbers.

 

 

I thought it would be interesting to extend this to rushing yards. I didn't bother with points scored - because the easiest way I found to get the wins/losses didn't include it. I'm not sure why you got 55% for 300+ whereas I got around 54%, but close enough. Also, there are only 256 games in a regular season so I'm not sure where you came up with 2370 games over 4 1/2 years. My total games (without ties) came to 1141. I also used more granular intervals to see if there were trends: 25 for rushing and 40 for passing.

 

It appears to me that there's a more direct correlation between rushing yards and winning than passing yards and winning. Whether this is cause or effect is either debatable or beyond my ability to determine through stats. Anyway, what jumps out for me is that the winning percentage for passing yards plateaus and even at the 240-280 range for passing yards the percentage is favorable. So far this year the Bills average 215 passing yards and 130  rushing yards per game which puts them at 51% and 66% on the passing and rushing chart below respectively. They're actual winning percentage is 71%. Here's the data I pulled using the same site:

 

Rushing Yds	W	L	Win %		Passing Yds	W	L	Win %
>275	10	0	100%		>440	10	10	50%
250-275	19	2	90%		400-440	17	14	55%
225-250	30	6	83%		360-400	43	40	52%
200-225	45	10	82%		320-360	106	89	54%
175-200	92	31	75%		280-320	178	153	54%
150-175	153	64	71%		240-280	223	191	54%
125-150	203	104	66%		200-240	230	225	51%
100-125	239	211	53%		160-200	190	209	48%
75-100	208	280	43%		120-160	98	129	43%
50-75	107	272	28%		80-120	40	54	43%
25-50	32	141	18%		40-80	6	24	20%
0-25	3	20	13%		0-40	0	3	0%

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/31/2019 at 2:45 PM, TwistofFate said:

Make me a believer... because with each passing week, each fumble, each interception, and each mediocre performance, I drift further and further from the belief he is a franchise guy. 

 

Wait, didn't you just say you don't see the games 'cuz you live in PA and are just going off NFLN and ESPN?

 

There's your problem right there.  Drift away from those news sources and check out something that focuses more on actual on field play.

Because if you do, you will see progress. 

 

By the way he hasn't thrown a pick in several games.

[LSHMEAB]

On 10/30/2019 at 7:42 PM, StHustle said:

Anyone else find it strange that both Tyrod and Josh went from pretty good deep ball passers their first year starting to terrible at it in year 2?

I think Tyrod's issue was much easier to understand; he had a connection with Watkins coupled with the fact that teams starting giving him the middle of the field.

 

Not so sure with Allen. Maybe he spent so much time focusing on the short game(which has improved) that the long ball has suffered.

 

Either way, a player LIKE Josh has got to have the deep ball in his arsenal. I think a player like him needs LESS coaching. He's got too many voices in his ear. They need to go hurry up and just let him play. He's at his BEST when he's NOT thinking. Most of his accuracy issues are psychological IMO. If he's ever able to just play football, the results will come. Easier said than done, but that's the issue IMO.

Edited November 5, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[TwistofFate]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wait, didn't you just say you don't see the games 'cuz you live in PA and are just going off NFLN and ESPN?

 

There's your problem right there.  Drift away from those news sources and check out something that focuses more on actual on field play.

Because if you do, you will see progress. 

 

By the way he hasn't thrown a pick in several games.

I watch every game.   I have Sunday Ticket.   I haven't missed a Bills game in 8 years. 

 

What im talking about is in my area people arent actively seeking ways to watch the bills, nor do there care too. 

 

They get there information from those sources. 

 

I watch every game.   Im active in fantasy football and sports betting. 

 

This isnt about me.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I watch every game.   I have Sunday Ticket.   I haven't missed a Bills game in 8 years. 

 

What im talking about is in my area people arent actively seeking ways to watch the bills, nor do there care too. 

 

They get there information from those sources. 

 

I watch every game.   Im active in fantasy football and sports betting. 

 

This isnt about me.   

 

Can't help you then.  You say you watch every game and  drift further and further away each week and you're actually watching the games, I got nuttin'.

[Mango]

56 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think Tyrod's issue was much easier to understand; he had a connection with Watkins coupled with the fact that teams starting giving him the middle of the field.

 

Not so sure with Allen. Maybe he spent so much time focusing on the short game(which has improved) that the long ball has suffered.

 

Either way, a player LIKE Josh has got to have the deep ball in his arsenal. I think a player like him needs LESS coaching. He's got too many voices in his ear. They need to go hurry up and just let him play. He's at his BEST when he's NOT thinking. Most of his accuracy issues are psychological IMO. If he's ever able to just play football, the results will come. Easier said than done, but that's the issue IMO.

 

2018 Josh Allen: Slings the rock around and does what JA does

 

2019 Roger Goodell: “With the 9th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Ed Oliver, Defensive Tackle, Houston”

[TwistofFate]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can't help you then.  You say you watch every game and  drift further and further away each week and you're actually watching the games, I got nuttin'.

Tell me you didn't watch the Ravens game last night and say to yourself, i wish it was the bills throttling these mofos. 

 

The ravens left no questions about that beat down, nor is there any questions about the validity of their record.   It was a dominant performance.

 

Im tired of wishing that was us. 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by TwistofFate

[Billsfan1972]

Forget the OP.....  I am going through the top 20 QB's in 2019 & how long it took them to reach 300 yards.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm#passing::pass_rating

 

It is quite apparent that the answer is "NOT LONG".

 

The outlier is as people have pointed out Russell Wilson who did it as a 3rd round pick & in his last game of the season in the playoffs.  Also note how good & dominant his team was his first 3 years (especially the defense).

 

We have already commented on Rivers, Brady, Brees, Rodgers....  Let's looks at the others.

 

Stafford threw for 416 on a team that went 2-14, but won that game (was injured & started only 10 games).

Cousins was the back-up to RG3 & did it within his first 10 games

Watson within his first 6-7 games

Bridgewater 4th game.....

Trubisky in under 10 years.......

 

Allen is now 19 starts & most passing yards in a game is only 253...

 

Could keep going, but using this list it is obvious they all do it quickly, and how that is considered a bad thing and doesn't result in a quicker learning curve and positive long-term results just does not know football.

 

20 passes a game & under 200 yards passing can happen from time to time (either you blow out a team or get blown out) but is not a good learning curve for a QB....   

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Forget the OP.....  I am going through the top 20 QB's in 2019 & how long it took them to reach 300 yards.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm#passing::pass_rating

 

It is quite apparent that the answer is "NOT LONG".

 

The outlier is as people have pointed out Russell Wilson who did it as a 3rd round pick & in his last game of the season in the playoffs.  Also note how good & dominant his team was his first 3 years (especially the defense).

 

We have already commented on Rivers, Brady, Brees, Rodgers....  Let's looks at the others.

 

Stafford threw for 416 on a team that went 2-14, but won that game (was injured & started only 10 games).

Cousins was the back-up to RG3 & did it within his first 10 games

Watson within his first 6-7 games

Bridgewater 4th game.....

Trubisky in under 10 years.......

 

Allen is now 19 starts & most passing yards in a game is only 253...

 

Could keep going, but using this list it is obvious they all do it quickly, and how that is considered a bad thing and doesn't result in a quicker learning curve and positive long-term results just does not know football.

 

20 passes a game & under 200 yards passing can happen from time to time (either you blow out a team or get blown out) but is not a good learning curve for a QB....   

 

 

 

 

We all get by now that you'd rather be entertained than have the Bills win.  You've listed 5 Qbs above, none of which have sniffed a championship so why you picked them I have no idea. Here's what I know will happen, or at the very least have a very strong suspicion his will happen:

 

Josh will one day throw for 300 yards.  Let's say it's either this Sunday against the Browns or against the Fish the following week.  Here's what you'll post:

 

1.  Fine, he's done it once but truly good QBs do it consistently

2.  Well, he did it but it was more due to the (pick one):  poor DBs on the opposing team, poor pass rush by the opposing team, that the WRS bailed him out by making great catches, that it wasn't really a true 300 yard game because X number of yards came from short passes with long runs after the catch

3.  And God forbid if they lose the same game, it will be that it doesn't matter that he threw for 300 yards because they lost (and therein completely going back on a month's worth of posts on the subject).