Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information. Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities: - 32 Starts or - 6 years on an NFL Roster - For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster - QB's Drafted in 2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game Raw Findings: - For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1) - QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start - Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game. - Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started - QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers. - QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career. - Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify) - Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game. ***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.*** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread. 2 1 11
Mojo44 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Mango said: For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information. Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities: - 32 Starts or - 6 years on an NFL Roster - For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster - QB's Drafted in 2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game Raw Findings: - For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1) - QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start - Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game. - Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started - QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers. - QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career. - Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify) - Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game. ***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.*** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread. My compliments. An impressive amount of data and an appropriately cautious interpretation of it. The validity of any genuine correlation between 300 yard passing games and playoff appearances further suffers because there are too many significant uncontrolled variables. These would include, among others, your team’s defense, the other team’s defense and strength of schedule. In my opinion, there’s no compelling reason to believe that a quarterback must have a 300 yard passing game to help get his team into the playoffs. 3
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Mojo44 said: My compliments. An impressive amount of data and an appropriately cautious interpretation of it. The validity of any genuine correlation between 300 yard passing games and playoff appearances further suffers because there are too many significant uncontrolled variables. These would include, among others, your team’s defense, the other team’s defense and strength of schedule. In my opinion, there’s no compelling reason to believe that a quarterback must have a 300 yard passing game to help get his team into the playoffs. thank you. Honestly, I wasn't trying to draw any conclusions. We have just been mentioning this special 300 yard number since EJ in 2013, so I was just curious on when other QB's hit that mark, then one thing leads to another, and...BAM I have 20 years worth of NFL drafts. I agree, I do not think frequency or timing of NFL games predicts the playoffs. I don't think any of the data implies that either. Again, I don't think it is a predictor of any ceilings, longevity, success etc. I do think you are in a bad place at QB if you have a starter that has gone 30+ games without having a single 300 yard game. Like if you have a rookie who throws a 300 yard game in his 2nd start, it does not imply he will be Aaron Rodgers. But if he goes 30+ he is not in great company, Alex Smith is the only one who could remotely be considered franchise in that area. Edited October 31, 2019 by Mango 1
Kwai San Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Quote Wow.....lots to digest. A bit of a ways to go for Allen for sure I guess if you are looking for 300+ yards week to week. Looked like he was going to go over 300 in the Jests game for sure.....who knows how that got put to bed? Personally I think 300+ is over rated as there are 300+ guys who are LOSING games. Bottom line....did ya win??? My $0.02
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Thank you for compiling the data, it's an interesting point. Allen won't have a 300 yard game until he connects on some deep passes. Right now he must be the worst QB in the NFL at deep passes and he needs to be better. As a point of optimism, last year he was one of the worst short passers in the league and he has made tremendous improvements there. So I'm still hopeful. I honestly don't know what his problem is with deep passes. Either he isn't timing them right or he's not putting enough air on the ball. If he figures it out and gets to a league average completion percentage on deep throws he'll hit a 300 yard game before long.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kwai San said: Wow.....lots to digest. A bit of a ways to go for Allen for sure I guess if you are looking for 300+ yards week to week. Looked like he was going to go over 300 in the Jests game for sure.....who knows how that got put to bed? Personally I think 300+ is over rated as there are 300+ guys who are LOSING games. Bottom line....did ya win??? My $0.02 I don't think (although I don't have the data) that 300 yards is indicative of regular success. I do think the data shows that it is important to hit it sooner rather than later. 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Thank you for compiling the data, it's an interesting point. Allen won't have a 300 yard game until he connects on some deep passes. Right now he must be the worst QB in the NFL at deep passes and he needs to be better. As a point of optimism, last year he was one of the worst short passers in the league and he has made tremendous improvements there. So I'm still hopeful. I honestly don't know what his problem is with deep passes. Either he isn't timing them right or he's not putting enough air on the ball. If he figures it out and gets to a league average completion percentage on deep throws he'll hit a 300 yard game before long. We took a chance on Allen as an anomaly, because the thought is his skill set, background, career path, etc. is an anomaly. If that is the case, he could buck the trend, but he would be one of the first. I think his deep ball issues are a little of column A and a little of column B. Not enough air for the WR to adjust, and he is not timing them right.
StHustle Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Anyone else find it strange that both Tyrod and Josh went from pretty good deep ball passers their first year starting to terrible at it in year 2? 2
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Kwai San said: Personally I think 300+ is over rated as there are 300+ guys who are LOSING games. Bottom line....did ya win??? My $0.02 I did some quick research on this: http://pfref.com/tiny/sy8Ft From 2015-2019, 300+ yard passers have gone 284-260-6. So 300+ yard passers have a 51.6% win percentage. In a vacuum it doesn't really predict anything on a game to game basis.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: I did some quick research on this: http://pfref.com/tiny/sy8Ft From 2015-2019, 300+ yard passers have gone 284-260-6. So 300+ yard passers have a 51.6% win percentage. In a vacuum it doesn't really predict anything on a game to game basis. Correct. The data posted has nothing to do with frequency of 300+ and wins. It’s purely showing the ability to have a big day through the air early and longevity.
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 300 yards passing just doesn’t mean that much. I don’t understand why Bills fans are obsessed with it. Just win the games. Most of the big passing days are teams playing catch up from behind. Just beat people. Who cares what the passing yards are? I think Matt Schaub threw for like 450 yards last week. They were getting beat all day and in the end, it means nothing. I get that people assume it’s a negative because it’s much more common then we see but we haven’t really needed it. That’s probably a good thing. 3 1
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mango said: Correct. The data posted has nothing to do with frequency of 300+ and wins. It’s purely showing the ability to have a big day through the air early and longevity. I agree a QB needs to have the ability to hit 300+ yards at some point to be successful. Especially against better teams. Like I don't think we had a chance against the Eagles without a 300+ yard passing day. When I do win/loss record for just playoff games from 2015-2019, 300+ yard passers have a 17-11 record. A significantly higher win percentage of 60.7%. So yes the ability to hit those from time to time is important in reaching the upper echelon of the league. I don't think it will happen for Allen this year. If it doesn't happen next year it likely means he is never going to reach the upper echelon. He has to start hitting some deep throws. 1 1
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: 300 yards passing just doesn’t mean that much. I don’t understand why Bills fans are obsessed with it. Just win the games. Most of the big passing days are teams playing catch up from behind. Just beat people. Who cares what the passing yards are? I think Matt Schaub threw for like 450 yards last week. They were getting beat all day and in the end, it means nothing. I get that people assume it’s a negative because it’s much more common then we see but we haven’t really needed it. That’s probably a good thing. Is any of this shown in any of the data? The data isn’t isn’t presented in a way that leans towards any sort of bias. It’s basically game starts compared to first 300 yard game, with league longevity. None of this implies that huge passing numbers regularly lead to greatness. (Which is how I read your post) Facts are, most franchise (almost all) franchise QBs have a single 300 yard game within 16 starts. 3 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I agree a QB needs to have the ability to hit 300+ yards at some point to be successful. Especially against better teams. Like I don't think we had a chance against the Eagles without a 300+ yard passing day. When I do win/loss record for just playoff games from 2015-2019, 300+ yard passers have a 17-11 record. A significantly higher win percentage of 60.7%. So yes the ability to hit those from time to time is important in reaching the upper echelon of the league. I don't think it will happen for Allen this year. If it doesn't happen next year it likely means he is never going to reach the upper echelon. He has to start hitting some deep throws. I will start to worry about us, if he doesn’t hit it by the time our season or post season is over with. I’d have to take a slightly deeper dive, but I think he’d be the first QB in 20 years to start a playoff game without a 300 yard day to his name. 1
Hebert19 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Ok. I have to say something here. 1. Appreciate the research. Good stuff. 2. 300 yard games. Honestly who cares. Allen hasn't had any. Tyrod had what 1? Fitz had what a couple (and many since?) Edwards losman ej etc. Maybe a couple. Drew had a few. Flutie. Yes. Rob Johnson. Maybe a couple. Answer. You ever think buffalo is a tough place to play? Weather. Wind. Etc contributes. 1 QB not throwing for 300. No big deal. 2. Weird but no big deal. 10 in last 20 years. That is more than strange...its a trend. Net net is there are many variables that contribute. Stafford is a great example. 8 home games is a dome. Years of terrible defense where you have to throw a lot. Ryan. See above. Rivers...see above minus dome. 300 yards means *****. Wins. That's what is important. And if you dont see that then you aren't a fan. 2
TwistofFate Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 300+ yard passing means one thing to me. A Qb can take over games when he needs to in order to win. Consistent 300+ performances means you are an elite passer and your team is pretty much never out of a game. Sub 300 yard passers that span the course of 1+ years in todays modern NFL indicates a serious Qb deficiency. The league today is hand tailored for Qbs to excel at the position. 4 minutes ago, Hebert19 said: Ok. I have to say something here. 1. Appreciate the research. Good stuff. 2. 300 yard games. Honestly who cares. Allen hasn't had any. Tyrod had what 1? Fitz had what a couple (and many since?) Edwards losman ej etc. Maybe a couple. Drew had a few. Flutie. Yes. Rob Johnson. Maybe a couple. Answer. You ever think buffalo is a tough place to play? Weather. Wind. Etc contributes. 1 QB not throwing for 300. No big deal. 2. Weird but no big deal. 10 in last 20 years. That is more than strange...its a trend. Net net is there are many variables that contribute. Stafford is a great example. 8 home games is a dome. Years of terrible defense where you have to throw a lot. Ryan. See above. Rivers...see above minus dome. 300 yards means *****. Wins. That's what is important. And if you dont see that then you aren't a fan. None of those Qbs you spoke of are a franchise Qb....I wonder why? This is an offensive, pass oriented league. If you cant post 300 yard games and lead your team to wins when you're down 10-14 points, you'll never be a franchise Qb....period. 2 1
GoBills808 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: 300+ yard passing means one thing to me. A Qb can take over games when he needs to in order to win. Consistent 300+ performances means you are an elite passer and your team is pretty much never out of a game. Sub 300 yard passers that span the course of 1+ years in todays modern NFL indicates a serious Qb deficiency. The league today is hand tailored for Qbs to excel at the position. Matt Ryan and the Falcons would disagree.
apuszczalowski Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Yes, 300 yard games don't mean automatic wins, it just means you have an offence that has the ability to move down the field and have a chance to score when needed. Unless you have a defence that is one of the greatest ever, your going to struggle to win games against the better teams in the league. Offenses need to score points to win games, and to do that you have to move the ball down field. The fact that Matt Schaub could go out and throw for 2 weeks worth of Josh Allens yards in a loss should say something about where this Bills offence is. Where the league is at now, 300 yards is not even a huge accomplishment for a QB anymore. Yes the Bills have been winning most of their games this season, but its coming against bad teams and with a bunch of luck. How many times can you expect to win games because the kicker can't hit a Field goal all day? They needed to comeback in the 2nd Half to beat 2 teams that have yet to win games all year. They also needed a flukey ST play at the end to put away the game in Tennessee (a TD off of an onside kick had only happened one other time in the last 15+ years) What might make the data more interesting is if it was broken down with the data from the top teams (ones making the playoffs) to see what the successful teams are putting up. Another interesting stat would be to look at the games where a QB threw for over 300 in a loss, what did the other QB throw for in that game, was it less? 1
TwistofFate Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Matt Ryan and the Falcons would disagree. Lol. Offensive rookie of the year. League mvp. 4x pro bowler. And a super bowl appearance. They would highly agree.
GoBills808 Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, TwistofFate said: Lol. Offensive rookie of the year. League mvp. 4x pro bowler. And a super bowl appearance. They would highly agree. Yeah they’re really doing well this season with those 300 yard games.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Posted October 31, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: 300 yards passing just doesn’t mean that much. I don’t understand why Bills fans are obsessed with it. Just win the games. Most of the big passing days are teams playing catch up from behind. Just beat people. Who cares what the passing yards are? I think Matt Schaub threw for like 450 yards last week. They were getting beat all day and in the end, it means nothing. I get that people assume it’s a negative because it’s much more common then we see but we haven’t really needed it. That’s probably a good thing. I had no idea that 1) Matt Schaub was still in the league 2) Matt Schaub's arm could actually manage 52 attempts in a game and rack up 460 yds. I looked it up, and that's actually the 3rd highest yardage he ever passed for in a game - but the two highest were back in 2010 and 2012. Matt Freakin' Schaub.
Mango Posted October 31, 2019 Author Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Matt Ryan and the Falcons would disagree. Did you even look at the data? Or did you just see 300 yards and yell “Get off my lawn” All it says is that QB’s who throw for 300 yards ONCE within their first 2 years in the league/16 starts have a higher chance of longevity. This has nothing to do with over all passing yards or frequency of 300 yard games in correlation to wins. 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I had no idea that 1) Matt Schaub was still in the league 2) Matt Schaub's arm could actually manage 52 attempts in a game and rack up 460 yds. I looked it up, and that's actually the 3rd highest yardage he ever passed for in a game - but the two highest were back in 2010 and 2012. Matt Freakin' Schaub. Dude, when I heard he was starting last week I was shocked he was still alive. 2
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