Run Defense - Interesting Stats/Observations

[mjt328]

Thought I would share some interesting stats/observations regarding our Run Defense, since so many people now believe the sky is falling.

 

1.  In the first half, Eagles running backs had 31 yards on 11 carries (2.81 ypc).

2.  Outside of the 65-yard-run, Eagles running backs had 6 yards on 4 carries in the third quarter (1.50 ypc).

3.  Carson Wentz scrambling and a Nelson Agholor end-around accounted for 42 yards.

 

Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  In total, we are talking 15 carries for 37 yards.  And the main reason Miles Sanders broke off that big run, was because Micah Hyde was concerned about Wentz scrambling and hesitated flying at the ball carrier.

 

I'm not saying this to excuse a poor performance by the Defense.  Not at all.  

It was definitely a bad game, and one of the primary reasons we lost on Sunday (the offense cannot be excused either).

I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments.

 

This was the first truly BAD game we've seen from the Bills Defense since the middle of last year.  Other teams have tried to run up the middle over the last 13-14 games, and haven't done close to what the Eagles accomplished on Sunday.  And most of this damage was done over the course of two drives in the 4th Quarter.  By that point, it was too late to make significant scheme changes.  It's also possible the Defense was just gassed and worn-down, considering this was the same stretch where our offense couldn't do ANYTHING.  

 

 

[Brand J]

All this talk about the run defense, I just want an offense that can hold its own in the passing game era. That’s all I want for Christmas.

[GG]

Thanks for putting the numbers out for what was obvious after watching the replay.   This one is on the coaching staff.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

25 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Thought I would share some interesting stats/observations regarding our Run Defense, since so many people now believe the sky is falling.

 

1.  In the first half, Eagles running backs had 31 yards on 11 carries (2.81 ypc).

2.  Outside of the 65-yard-run, Eagles running backs had 6 yards on 4 carries in the third quarter (1.50 ypc).

3.  Carson Wentz scrambling and a Nelson Agholor end-around accounted for 42 yards.

 

Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  In total, we are talking 15 carries for 37 yards.  And the main reason Miles Sanders broke off that big run, was because Micah Hyde was concerned about Wentz scrambling and hesitated flying at the ball carrier.

 

I'm not saying this to excuse a poor performance by the Defense.  Not at all.  

It was definitely a bad game, and one of the primary reasons we lost on Sunday (the offense cannot be excused either).

I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments.

 

This was the first truly BAD game we've seen from the Bills Defense since the middle of last year.  Other teams have tried to run up the middle over the last 13-14 games, and haven't done close to what the Eagles accomplished on Sunday.  And most of this damage was done over the course of two drives in the 4th Quarter.  By that point, it was too late to make significant scheme changes.  It's also possible the Defense was just gassed and worn-down, considering this was the same stretch where our offense couldn't do ANYTHING.  

 

 

 

And when you look at what was accomplished in the pass game?  Screens did most of the damage, and they caught us in man coverage on the bigger screen plays.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, GG said:

Thanks for putting the numbers out for what was obvious after watching the replay.   This one is on the coaching staff.

 

I thought the OP's contention is that it was NOT on the coaching staff?  Now I'm so confused.

 

 

 

 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought the OP's contention is that it was NOT on the coaching staff?  Now I'm so confused.

 

 

 

 

 

If that's the case, I misunderstood.  Pederson took full advantage of Bills' overpursuit.  You can see them drawing up the blueprint in the first half, where those plays didn't click yet.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Thought I would share some interesting stats/observations regarding our Run Defense, since so many people now believe the sky is falling.

 

1.  In the first half, Eagles running backs had 31 yards on 11 carries (2.81 ypc).

2.  Outside of the 65-yard-run, Eagles running backs had 6 yards on 4 carries in the third quarter (1.50 ypc).

3.  Carson Wentz scrambling and a Nelson Agholor end-around accounted for 42 yards.

 

Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  In total, we are talking 15 carries for 37 yards.  And the main reason Miles Sanders broke off that big run, was because Micah Hyde was concerned about Wentz scrambling and hesitated flying at the ball carrier.

 

I'm not saying this to excuse a poor performance by the Defense.  Not at all.  

It was definitely a bad game, and one of the primary reasons we lost on Sunday (the offense cannot be excused either).

I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments.

 

This was the first truly BAD game we've seen from the Bills Defense since the middle of last year.  Other teams have tried to run up the middle over the last 13-14 games, and haven't done close to what the Eagles accomplished on Sunday.  And most of this damage was done over the course of two drives in the 4th Quarter.  By that point, it was too late to make significant scheme changes.  It's also possible the Defense was just gassed and worn-down, considering this was the same stretch where our offense couldn't do ANYTHING. 

 

When the opposing players are pointing out after the game that they successively gashed us on variations of the same play over and over and we couldn't stop them, I can't absolve the coaching staff and the scheme.  It's on them to figure out what's going on, call a time out if they need to and make some changes.

 

And yes, if someone can execute the same play over and over and it can't be stopped within the context of the game, that is exposed.  It's there on film.  If you can do this, you can gash them.  Proven until we stop it.

 

Exposed doesn't mean the D played the whole game like crap, because they didn't.  I'm well aware of the frustrating fact that we stopped or stuffed play after play to put them in 3rd and long, only to let them out of it.   But you can't except runs by Carson Wentz and Agholar and the 65 yard run and then use it to say the run D didn't have a bad game and didn't have a weakness exposed, because they did, and they did.

 

PS various people looking at film put the big run on Milano as well as Hyde.  Do I mistake, or did you call out Poyer in another thread?

[row_33]

"Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  "

 

 

Apart from letting in those 7 runs in the 2nd inning, the pitching staff was real good today in the 8-0 loss.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

If that's the case, I misunderstood.  Pederson took full advantage of Bills' overpursuit.  You can see them drawing up the blueprint in the first half, where those plays didn't click yet.

 

That's how I interpreted his statement "I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments."

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

"Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter.  "

 

 

Apart from letting in those 7 runs in the 2nd inning, the pitching staff was real good today in the 8-0 loss.

 

 

I think its fair to acknowledge that giving up 5 yards every time the ball is handed off is legitimately a much bigger problem than giving up two big runs and some QB scrambles a game. 

[SoCal Deek]

Exactly!  Anytime you give up a single 65 yard run it’s going to throw all of the rest of the stats out the window. 

[GG]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's how I interpreted his statement "I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments."

 

 

On second read, the post doesn't make sense to me.  It was a bad defensive outing, but defense nor the coaching staff shouldn't shoulder all the blame?

 

I'd put this one more on the coaches.

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think its fair to acknowledge that giving up 5 yards every time the ball is handed off is legitimately a much bigger problem than giving up two big runs and some QB scrambles a game. 

 

those 60+ yard jailbreak runs with total righteous pancaking of lofty Bills men on D are deal breakers for the game, sometimes careers

 

i'm a Jays fan, so i'm used to the postgame telephone talkshow with the slob screaming at fans that apart from that 7-run second inning the pitching staff was great today... 

 

 

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

On second read, the post doesn't make sense to me.  It was a bad defensive outing, but defense nor the coaching staff shouldn't shoulder all the blame?

 

I'd put this one more on the coaches.

 

they played bad and it wasn't good enough to win this time, it sure was good enough 3 times this year so far

 

live and learn and regroup and come out and kick the crap out of Washington

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I think its fair to acknowledge that giving up 5 yards every time the ball is handed off is legitimately a much bigger problem than giving up two big runs and some QB scrambles a game. 

 

Um, No?  Both lead to losses.  Typically in a football game, one can look at a handful of plays and say "these really influenced the outcome".

The JA fumble down near the redzone was one.  The FG miss on our subsequent drive was another as it would have largely neutralized that impact.

The jailbreak 65 yd run for a TD right after half was a 3rd. 

Not a single play, but the TD drive on the next defensive series featuring giving up 38 and 15 yd plays and resulting in a TD was also key.

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um, No?  Both lead to losses.  Typically in a football game, one can look at a handful of plays and say "these really influenced the outcome".

The JA fumble down near the redzone was one.  The FG miss on our subsequent drive was another as it would have largely neutralized that impact.

The jailbreak 65 yd run for a TD right after half was a 3rd. 

Not a single play, but the TD drive on the next defensive series featuring giving up 38 and 15 yd plays and resulting in a TD was also key.

 

 

You are right. Both CAN lead to losses. 

 

What you are missing is that 5 yards on every run WILL lead to losses.  That means every drive has no third downs and ends in touchdowns. 

 

One big play with a 2.0 y/c average equals one LIKELY touchdown, but the remaining drives are stalling out. Its super bad. It can result in a loss. But it is not nearly as bad as every drive ending in a touchdown, as I outline above.

[Buffalo Junction]

8 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You are right. Both CAN lead to losses. 

 

What you are missing is that 5 yards on every run WILL lead to losses.  That means every drive has no third downs and ends in touchdowns. 

 

One big play with a 2.0 y/c average equals one LIKELY touchdown, but the remaining drives are stalling out. Its super bad. It can result in a loss. But it is not nearly as bad as every drive ending in a touchdown, as I outline above.

I might agree, but there’s two problems...

 

1) The defense was poor on 3rd and long. They had trouble getting off the field. The Eagles figured out some effective ways to beat 3rd down defense. Couple that with a few big plays and it results in a loss. 
 

2) This defense operates on a small margin of error. The offense simply isn’t good enough to over come a poor defensive outing. That margin seems to be one big play or timely scoring drive. 
 

When you combine both of those issues you get games like Sunday where this team cannot steal momentum back... It’s concerning. Fortunately every team left on our schedule isn’t going to be capable of exploiting this. However, Dallas, NE and Baltimore have the talent and coaching to exploit these issues. The Bills are a good team with some weaknesses. If Allen makes a second half performance jump like he did last year then some of those weaknesses won’t be as great. Outside of that occurring we’re gonna have to weather the occasional storm until we get a few more game changers to create big plays. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I might agree, but there’s two problems...

 

1) The defense was poor on 3rd and long. They had trouble getting off the field. The Eagles figured out some effective ways to beat 3rd down defense. Couple that with a few big plays and it results in a loss. 
 

2) This defense operates on a small margin of error. The offense simply isn’t good enough to over come a poor defensive outing. That margin seems to be one big play or timely scoring drive. 
 

When you combine both of those issues you get games like Sunday where this team cannot steal momentum back... It’s concerning. Fortunately every team left on our schedule isn’t going to be capable of exploiting this. However, Dallas, NE and Baltimore have the talent and coaching to exploit these issues. The Bills are a good team with some weaknesses. If Allen makes a second half performance jump like he did last year then some of those weaknesses won’t be as great. Outside of that occurring we’re gonna have to weather the occasional storm until we get a few more game changers to create big plays. 

 

I know its a problem, my point was a little more nuanced than that.  In any event, your second point is the real problem. the margin for error is razor thin, and that needs to get fixed. In a hurry. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I know its a problem, my point was a little more nuanced than that.  In any event, your second point is the real problem. the margin for error is razor thin, and that needs to get fixed. In a hurry. 

I’m not sure it’s more nuanced. We have a good defense with no holes. We don’t have any real game changing talent in the front 7 which is why the defense can be exploited by good offenses and we’re not getting turnovers unless a QB is dumb enough to throw towards Tre. Swap out Lawson/Murphy for Mack/Garret and this is an elite defense. As it stands, the biggest hopes for improvement on D are that Milano was rusty or slow coming off injury, we can nab a good replacement for Peko off the waiver wire, and/ the Eagles just exploited Edmunds inexperience and his recognition/calls improve. Changing the defensive scheme will likely just create a problem somewhere else. 
 

As for the margin of error... Unless a light goes on for Allen or Daboll I don’t see it improving this year barring Foster suddenly getting hot again. Beane patched all the holes on this roster. We’re beating the bottom half of the league because they cannot exploit a weakness with one or two excellent players. Unfortunately the better teams have enough game changing talent to exploit this. Is what it is. We’re going to have a nice run this year because of schedule strength and there’s always the possibility that they play over their talent in a wildcard game. I hope that next season Allen improving and adding a few top talents pushes this team into perennial playoff contention. Allen’s growth aside this team will be there with a few upgrades. 

[SoCal Deek]

I’ve posted it elsewhere. The game was lost when the Bills went three and out from the 40 yard line to start the 4th Quarter consuming just 22 seconds and putting a tired defense back on the field. Horrible play calling by Daboll. No situational awareness!

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m not sure it’s more nuanced. We have a good defense with no holes. We don’t have any real game changing talent in the front 7 which is why the defense can be exploited by good offenses and we’re not getting turnovers unless a QB is dumb enough to throw towards Tre. Swap out Lawson/Murphy for Mack/Garret and this is an elite defense. As it stands, the biggest hopes for improvement on D are that Milano was rusty or slow coming off injury, we can nab a good replacement for Peko off the waiver wire, and/ the Eagles just exploited Edmunds inexperience and his recognition/calls improve. Changing the defensive scheme will likely just create a problem somewhere else. 
 

As for the margin of error... Unless a light goes on for Allen or Daboll I don’t see it improving this year barring Foster suddenly getting hot again. Beane patched all the holes on this roster. We’re beating the bottom half of the league because they cannot exploit a weakness with one or two excellent players. Unfortunately the better teams have enough game changing talent to exploit this. Is what it is. We’re going to have a nice run this year because of schedule strength and there’s always the possibility that they play over their talent in a wildcard game. I hope that next season Allen improving and adding a few top talents pushes this team into perennial playoff contention. Allen’s growth aside this team will be there with a few upgrades. 

 

My original point was that literally giving up 5 yards on every rush play (not just on average) is worse than giving up a 60 yard rush play and 2.0 ypc on the remaining rushes. I acknowledge that both are bad. I am only saying one is worse than the other.