Clear Sign Beane Doesn't Think We Are Ready

[BuffaninSarasota]

5 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I told everybody that the Bills weren’t going to do a darn thing trade wise and I’m very happy about it.

 

There is a lot of room for this team to grow within and be a contender.

 

If they don’t win anything this year, they have a lot of money to spend in 2020 and they have draft capital in a strong 2020 draft class.

 

Win win

with all due respect, there needs to be some serious "coaching up" of this team in its current iteration for it to grow within. There are still pieces missing and underachievers (Star, Murphy) past their prime. I am not a Debbie Downer but this is a copycat league which means we will continue to get run on until we prove we can stop it. Sorry, Peko is not the answer either.

[hondo in seattle]

Last year we were dead last in active cap spending.  I felt sorry for McD going into each game with that bargain basement roster.  But you could clearly see how Beane was setting up a foundation for the future - one that needed a QB, draft capital, and cap space for free agency.  

 

This year we're something like 23rd in active cap spending (depending slightly what source you use).  We're still in the bottom half of the league in roster spending thus - theoretically - in the bottom half in roster talent.  Yet we're 5-2.

 

In 2020, we'll be 3rd in available cap space and have a couple extra draft picks.  By next year - if Beane is good at his job - we should be able to field a contender.  Especially if Allen take a step forward.  

 

We can already see McD's competency as a coach.  Each year we win more game than our roster would indicate.  When given lemons, he makes lemonade.   

 

By next year, we should have a really good idea if Beane knows how to build a roster.

Edited October 29, 2019 by hondo in seattle

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

58 minutes ago, Logic said:

Beane is a bold move maker in terms of trades. HOWEVER...he is not a sucker. He is not a dupe. If the value isn't there or the player doesn't fit the long term vision, he's not going to force a move just for the sake of making a move. This is a good thing.

Beane's smart enough to know that there weren't any players on the market this year that were somehow going to transform the Bills into Super Bowl contenders in 2019. The Bills are NOT one player away from a championship.

I like Beane. I trust Beane. I trust the process.

On to Washington.

 

...good point and absolutely agree......in the interim, the return of the "D" giving up a 200 yd gashing needs to be put to rest....didn't we have two or three last year?.....and not very impressed with the Daboll lapses and lethargy in play calling.....run game is too predictable and he defaults to Josh quickly......too often inconsistent and ineffective IMO....

[Phil The Thrill]

Beane always says “you have to have a dance partner.”  My impression is that he probably tried to make a deal but the asking price was too high. 
 

I believe that internally, they see 2020 as the big year to make some noise.  I don’t think view this season as “Super Bowl or bust.”  If there was a deal that made sense to them like the Benjamin trade in 2017, I believe Beane would make a deal. 

[benderbender]

I’m fine with not overpaying for talent. But let’s drop the broken logic of the “we’re not one or two players away.” By that logic, any player we traded for today would bring us one player closer and so on. And the trading for 3 would then theoretically get us “there.” ?

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Last year we were dead last in active cap spending.  I felt sorry for McD going into each game with that bargain basement roster.  But you could clearly see how Beane was setting up a foundation for the future - one that needed a QB, draft capital, and cap space for free agency.  

 

This year we're something like 23rd in active cap spending (depending slightly what source you use).  We're still in the bottom half of the league in roster spending thus - theoretically - in the bottom half in roster talent.  Yet we're 5-2.

 

In 2020, we'll be 3rd in available cap space and have a couple extra draft picks.  By next year - if Beane is good at his job - we should be able to field a contender.  Especially if Allen take a step forward.  

 

We can already see McD's competency as a coach.  Each year we win more game than our roster would indicate.  When given lemons, he makes lemonade.   

 

By next year, we should have a really good idea if Beane knows how to build a roster.

Good post. I know a lot of people don't love Football Outsiders, but they now have us ranked 25th overall in DVOA, partly because the schedule the Bills have played is basically garbage except for NE and Philly. They had us trending downward after the Miami game, and that Philly game proved them right to an extent (i.e., getting dominated at home). The teams the Bills have beaten are ranked 24, 26, 30, 31, and 32, and the next four opponents are ranked 29, 23, 32, and 21. They also get 20 and 30 in two of the final three games. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

 

Anyway, the roster remains quite mediocre overall despite some bright spots (Tre White, John Brown). 

Edited October 29, 2019 by dave mcbride

[hemma]

I think Beane and McDermott just told the players:

 

"We trust you to get it done.  Make it happen."

 

Instead of a negative take on the current group, could be communicated as a vote of confidence .... or at least that is how the players hopefully see it.

[Mark92]

I think it's kind of ridiculous the way that today's NFL works.  Brandon Beane is a really good GM we would be foolish get rid of him.  To hold him to the flames if Allen doesn't pan out is crazy.  2018 was the year the front office was ready to find a QB.  At this point there is a chance all the QBs in that class could be busts.

[Marvlevydraftdaygenius]

20 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

"Clear Sign Beane Doesn't Think We Are Ready"

 

.....hope he does. He deserves more time. McD had a head start.

That works when you make the playoffs but when you made the playoffs once in 20 years players will say they don't want to be on this team.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Ghs24mike said:

Weakest the AFC has been in a long time. We have a 5-2 record staring 8-2 in the face. Patriots play a bunch of tough games down the stretch, but Beane decided not to risk our future on a small window of time. He is clearly saying this isn't our year. 

We need one more solid draft, and clear evidence Josh is our guy. New England and San Fran made trades. The two best teams in the league traded assets to win now.  New England gave up a high draft pick for Sonu because they feel confident they have a shot to win it all this year. Beane clearly doesn't think that. 

Disappointing, yet understandable. 

 

Gag...gag.....gonna trust the process for another year. 

How do we know Beane doesn't love where we stand this year and wasn't trying like hell to get an impact player on the team today, but simply couldn't find a dance partner?

 

You have no idea what's going on over there.  None of us do.

 

 

1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Next season will be the make or break year for the current crew:   Beane, Mc, Allen, et al. 

Any way to accelerate that to this season?

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post. I know a lot of people don't love Football Outsiders, but they now have us ranked 25th overall in DVOA, partly because the schedule the Bills have played is basically garbage except for NE and Philly. They had us trending downward after the Miami game, and that Philly game proved them right to an extent (i.e., getting dominated at home). The teams the Bills have beaten are ranked 24, 26, 30, 31, and 32, and the next four opponents are ranked 29, 23, 32, and 21. They also get 20 and 30 in two of the final three games. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

 

Anyway, the roster remains quite mediocre overall despite some bright spots (Tre White, John Brown). 

 

Agreed.  It didn't look like a great roster when we were winning and looks less like a great roster after the Philly loss.  

 

But taking a big picture, 2018 was the year Beane finished gutting the roster and started drafting for the future.  Through the draft and free agency, the 2019 roster is somewhat better but we still have a way to go.  And while our draft capital isn't spectacular next year, we do have a ton of cap money.  

 

Once I figured out what Beane was doing, 2020 always seemed like the target year.  This 2019 can get to the playoffs but it can't go deep into the playoffs.  

[BillsCuse]

No one knows what he was trying to do, it's very possible asking prices were high.  No need to blow high draft picks.  There weren't any big trades with anyone today anyway

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Agreed.  It didn't look like a great roster when we were winning and looks less like a great roster after the Philly loss.  

 

But taking a big picture, 2018 was the year Beane finished gutting the roster and started drafting for the future.  Through the draft and free agency, the 2019 roster is somewhat better but we still have a way to go.  And while our draft capital isn't spectacular next year, we do have a ton of cap money.  

 

Once I figured out what Beane was doing, 2020 always seemed like the target year.  This 2019 can get to the playoffs but it can't go deep into the playoffs.  

I suppose that going after a guy like AJ Green in FA next season is the better move than trading a second and a third (for instance) for him now if you think your ceiling with or without him is maybe a WC win before getting destroyed by one of the better teams on the road in the divisional round. The issue is that he has to nail his draft picks. In the third year of the McDermott/Beane regime, White was a great pick, and I think Edmunds probably qualifies as a strong pick considering what he brings to the pass defense. I suppose Dawkins rates as a pretty good pick; he seems to be having a solid season and is a legit LT starter in this league. The jury is out on the other high picks (except for Zay, a failure), and of course it really all comes down to Allen. Allen is a below-average NFL qb right now, but he's not terrible and he's clearly talented. 

[Perk71]

57 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

great contribution

You too

[DCbillsfan]

33 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

with all due respect, there needs to be some serious "coaching up" of this team in its current iteration for it to grow within. There are still pieces missing and underachievers (Star, Murphy) past their prime. I am not a Debbie Downer but this is a copycat league which means we will continue to get run on until we prove we can stop it. Sorry, Peko is not the answer either.

I believe this is why Beane stood pat.  Star, Murphy, and Peko leave a lot to be desired.  Arguably their best DL this year, Jordan Phillips, is an upcoming free agent.  Horrible Harry tore his ACL and Hughes and Oliver have been relatively quiet.  Not to mention a need for WR1, LB, an OT,  and RB.  Next year, Beane has money and picks.  Until then, he's riding it out with the guys he has.

[Orlando Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yes by all means hold onto those draft picks so we can draft WRs that can't catch, a RB from a tiny school that can't get reps from a 36 year old, and a MLB that lacks instincts. 

Beane and everyone of these GMs are so gull of themselves thinking they can evaluate talent. 

Could have had a proven talent today for the price of a lottery ticket next year. Terrible. Just awful. This regime wasted an entire 2018 season admittedly putting a noncompetitive team on the field. Now when the playoffs and a real shot at advancing they sit on the sidelines. Oliver is not producing and if history repeats will get worse as the season wears on. Murphy is a PED fake making millions with zero impact. Hard to believe a character guy like McD has him on the team if they want to win the right way. 

They are 8-8 talent playing a 12-4 schedule.  The next four games will decide the playoffs.

I know I do not see all your posts but all of the ones I see are extremely negative. I would not want to watch sports if 5-2 is a reason to bash the team simply because the last two SB winners beat us. I do not think this is the year but it has been fun to win.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, teef said:

what is going on around here?

The drama queens are out in full force...

[hondo in seattle]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I suppose that going after a guy like AJ Green in FA next season is the better move than trading a second and a third (for instance) for him now if you think your ceiling with or without him is maybe a WC win before getting destroyed by one of the better teams on the road in the divisional round. The issue is that he has to nail his draft picks. In the third year of the McDermott/Beane regime, White was a great pick, and I think Edmunds probably qualifies as a strong pick considering what he brings to the pass defense. I suppose Dawkins rates as a pretty good pick; he seems to be having a solid season and is a legit LT starter in this league. The jury is out on the other high picks (except for Zay, a failure), and of course it really all comes down to Allen. Allen is a below-average NFL qb right now, but he's not terrible and he's clearly talented. 

 

It's not fair but Allen may make or break Beane.  If Allen turns out to be the next coming of Jim Kelly, Beane's job is secure and we'll win a bunch of game.  If Allen doesn't progress beyond his "below-average" current self, Beane's in trouble regardless of the success of the rest of his picks.    

 

Bill Walsh once famously recommended Trent Edwards to Marv Levy.  Even the best talent evaluators miss sometimes.  Luckily, Walsh didn't miss with his first QB: Joe Montana.  I'm hoping Beane didn't miss with his first because if he did, he might not have a 2nd chance in this Not-For-Long business. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This was very dramatic

 

I'd hug him. I think he needs it. 

I will be ok. I still think they make the playoffs. Josh is going to continue to get better. 

I really hope Knox and Kroft start to get more opportunities. I still see 10-6 and a fifth seed.

[RiotAct]

If not now, then when?

 

If not me, then who?

 

    — Anonymous