Quality Wins - A Troubling Observation

[PaattMaann]

statement win will come in this years playoffs baby 

[jkeerie]

2 hours ago, uticaclub said:

He won a game he never trailed in. Pats weren’t going to show anything against they could beat without trying. 

Bills had talent when McDermott came, he just traded it away

I said "relatively little talent" not no talent.  Granted they traded an oft injured Sammy Watkins and Ron Darby.  They did not have a QB.   Beane surmised that with their cap issues they would be able to resign either, so he traded them for picks that would enable them to trade for their future QB.  Although we could use WR help, I don't think either one of those players would have made a huge difference. 

[Mango]

23 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

A big question that looms large over this regime, is when will they get their statement win against a quality opponent?

 

Under McDermott the Bills have had two quality wins against teams that went on to make the playoffs that year. Amazingly enough NONE of them have been at home. They were both in 2017: @KC and @ATL

 

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good? I hope not, but until they prove otherwise it appears to be the case. They seem to be content with mediocrity and doing just enough. This season feels like 2017 again with an even weaker schedule. McBeane has a lot to prove in my opinion and they need to get a quality win at HOME. Against the Ravens is the only chance left this year.   

 

He has 3 wins against teams that finished the year over .500. The two you mentioned, then TEN last year, who finished 9-7. No wins over a team over .500 to this point in the season. We will have to see how TEN does to see how that one plays out...

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I'm going to say this once: EVERY win in the NFL is a quality win. This isn't college football.

[Mango]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:31 AM, Rigotz said:

Wow this is a really interesting and fresh opinion.

Did everyone else know that we have an easy schedule this year and haven't beaten a tough opponent?

 

THANK YOU!!!!!

 

 

Snark aside, this isn't just about this year. Under the current regime, this team has not had a win against an opponent over .500 since week 6 of last year, against a 9-7 Titans team. It is a reasonable talking point, since it isn't specific to 2019. 

You would then have to go back to 2017 to get our next win vs. a team over .500

 

Bonus Stat- In that 2018 Titans game- Josh Allen through for 82 yards and ran for 19. (Solid C+ performance according to the report card thread. One turn over and did enough to win) 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Mango

[ColoradoBills]

23 hours ago, ngbills said:

 

Seriously?

 

The Pats and SF are destroying teams every week. They are in a different class than the Bills.

 

Due to arrive next year? Every year its next year. While other teams are making super bowl plans we are talking about how the plan has always been next year or the year after. 

Jan 11 2017 Bills hire McD

Jan 12 2017 Rams hire McVay

Feb 6 2017 49ers hire Shanahan

 

But yeah the Bills need more time. 

 

IF the Bills offense is still limping along at the end of this year then yes they will be "behind schedule".

As for the Rams, they may not even make the playoffs this year.  As of now they would miss out.

[mjd1001]

There are some fans who think every single loss point to impending doom on the horizon, after a loss, they are quick to pull out the 'told you so' card.

 

There are some fans who think every win should be celebrated the same, no matter the circumstances, and they bash anyone on this forum who points out anything but total joy and support after any win.

 

The truth, as usual, is someplace in the middle. The Bills have defeated the 'poor' teams on their schedule.  They beat probably the 2 worst teams in the NFL, a bad Giants team, and a bad-to-mediocre Titans and Jets team.  Not your 'quality' wins.  They also have lost to the only 2 teams they have faced that are not 'below average'. 

 

On the other hand, Most good (not great but good) teams do the same.  A 'good' playoff team will beat the bad teams on their schedule, split vs the middle teams, and lose to most of the 'great; teams.  That is how the league works.

 

The thing to remember is the league and teams do change.  The Bills are not going to be the same team in week 17 they are now. Teams DO get better and teams DO get worse over the course of the season.  From what we have seen so far, if NOTHING changed, I would think the Bills don't have much of a chance of beating any good team in the playoffs. However, I also truly believe teams will change from now to the end of the year. If the Bills change is for the better, they will have a shot at beating other playoff teams.

Edited October 29, 2019 by mjd1001

[ngbills]

13 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

Every team has a goal of the super bowl but you act like the only team not is the Bills how so????

 

So have the 49ers made teh SB since hiring him????

 

McVay ok but that would be it (not to mention the missed PI that should of kept them out) and how are those rams doing this year.

 

Way to over generalize and think that makes a val,id point.

 

Seriously as you say ha

 

 

My comment was related to the myth that every team needs at least 4-5 years after hiring a new regime. That is false. Most new regimes dont last 4-5 years if they dont get it right. McD is in year 3 and I would say right now is in the B range but if Allen flames out that could easily drop him down to the D range after next year and he could be in trouble. 

[Mango]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

If by 'good' you mean 'compare favorably with top NFL teams', then no, they're not 'good'. I don't think many Bills fans would have put this team in that category before the season started. The roster, especially on offense as you mention, isn't talented enough yet.

 

However I think they're 'good' in the sense that they will win a significant majority of their games and be one of the top defensive teams in the league and average/below average offensively, and probably earn a wildcard. And I think that's a reasonable definition of 'good'. 

 

I pegged this team at about 9 wins to start the season. I think we are 2 called back touch downs/4 missed field goals against TEN and a Big Ben injury away from that being the case. 

That said- just about any game is winnable for this team, depending on how the defense shows up.  If the D shows up at full potential 65% of the time, they'll win 65% of their games. Which is what this season is looking like. That concerns me though. We have invested a first round pick for 3 straight years onto that side of the ball. We have 8 players on defense drafted in the first 2 rounds. Granted not all by us. We should be good on that side of the ball

 

Tre

Oliver

Edmunds

Hughes

Lawson

Star L

Jordan Phillips

Murphy

[Nextmanup]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:27 AM, Do The Reich Thing said:

A big question that looms large over this regime, is when will they get their statement win against a quality opponent?

 

Under McDermott the Bills have had two quality wins against teams that went on to make the playoffs that year. Amazingly enough NONE of them have been at home. They were both in 2017: @KC and @ATL

 

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good? I hope not, but until they prove otherwise it appears to be the case. They seem to be content with mediocrity and doing just enough. This season feels like 2017 again with an even weaker schedule. McBeane has a lot to prove in my opinion and they need to get a quality win at HOME. Against the Ravens is the only chance left this year.   

To answer the bolded: yes.

 

Sean McDermott thinks "doing it right" means winning every game 17-10.

 

Low scoring, close to the vest, tight ball games which are dominated by defense and a solid run game.

 

We have definitely seen more passing this year, and Daboll's changes in that area have been refreshing, but McDermott remains a very traditional NFL head football coach, i.e., he is an enormously conservative coach.

That should make sense, as by all accounts, he is an enormously conservative person in his personal life.

 

[prissythecat]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, they probably do.

 

The Bills did a complete rebuild. That takes time, painful time. The lucky rebuilds get genuinely competitive in their third year but that's very few, and almost always a team that gets it's franchise QB in year one.

 

Reloads like the one in LA are supposed to come fairly quick. And with how LA is playing now, it's worth wondering whether they are going to be a good team.

 

SF was set up beautifully by following on from Kelly's 2-14 season. And it's worth throwing out there that SF might not look as good if they hadn't managed to luck into Garoppolo that cheap and easy.

 

I get that it's frustrating to hear that the Bills might need more time. Doesn't mean it's not correct, though. They really might. And they might even get a lot better next year, though nothing in the future is a given.

 

SF looks good because of their elite DL and  running back by committee scheme.  Garoppolo is more of a game manager at this point.

[Bangarang]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am sorry I don't buy this "they were supposed to arrive next year". In the NFL years are not all created equal. Schedules change, the ability of your immediate competition changes. For example, I don't expect the Dolphins to be a JUCO team for ever. You have to take your opportunity when it comes. Still even now there are only 4 games on our whole schedule against teams with winning records. NE x2, BAL, DAL. Anything short of 9 wins this year is a failure. Frankly under 10 would disappoint me. This year is not a free swing under any circumstances. 

It’s always next year for some people. They are afraid to set expectations high out of fear of being disappointed. 
 

Allen and the offense were supposed to take a major step forward this year but that’s not happening and now the narrative is we still don’t have talent on offense and next year is the year it happens. I agree with you that anything less than 10 or 11 wins this year would be a disappointment. Our schedule next year is no joke so if you’re expecting a breakout year then it’s only going to be harder.

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, they probably do.

 

The Bills did a complete rebuild. That takes time, painful time. The lucky rebuilds get genuinely competitive in their third year but that's very few, and almost always a team that gets it's franchise QB in year one.

 

Reloads like the one in LA are supposed to come fairly quick. And with how LA is playing now, it's worth wondering whether they are going to be a good team.

 

SF was set up beautifully by following on from Kelly's 2-14 season. And it's worth throwing out there that SF might not look as good if they hadn't managed to luck into Garoppolo that cheap and easy.

 

I get that it's frustrating to hear that the Bills might need more time. Doesn't mean it's not correct, though. They really might. And they might even get a lot better next year, though nothing in the future is a given.

The 49ers have done a better job than the Bills at drafting / acquiring players and coaches. The Bills didn’t have a shot at Garappolo due to being in the AFCE, but top to bottom the Niners have been a more impressive organization. 

[ngbills]

4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It’s always next year for some people. They are afraid to set expectations high out of fear of being disappointed. 
 

Allen and the offense were supposed to take a major step forward this year but that’s not happening and now the narrative is we still don’t have talent on offense and next year is the year it happens. I agree with you that anything less than 10 or 11 wins this year would be a disappointment. Our schedule next year is no joke so if you’re expecting a breakout year then it’s only going to be harder.

To add - you can be happy the team is 5-2. BUT...still see that the offense has not progressed as much as it should have by this time. That is alarming. The offensive rankings have not been this bad since the Jauron years. And dont say we should not expect better given Allen is still learning, all the changes, etc. Bills of the past faced the same. People quickly forget when the team had a serious lack of talent on offense. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, uticaclub said:

 

Bills had talent when McDermott came, he just traded it away

 

Fat dareus, broken Sammy and guardian of the training table cordy don't count as talent.

[Boatdrinks]

5 hours ago, uticaclub said:

He won a game he never trailed in. Pats weren’t going to show anything against they could beat without trying. 

 

This is bs^ The Pats * and TB try to bury you. Every drive, every game. They were trying their damndest that day like any other. 

[Nextmanup]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:56 AM, ngbills said:

 

Seriously?

 

The Pats and SF are destroying teams every week. They are in a different class than the Bills.

 

Due to arrive next year? Every year its next year. While other teams are making super bowl plans we are talking about how the plan has always been next year or the year after. 

Jan 11 2017 Bills hire McD

Jan 12 2017 Rams hire McVay

Feb 6 2017 49ers hire Shanahan

 

But yeah the Bills need more time. 

You have to remember most of this board are blind homers who only know how to cheer on the Bills and are incapable of objective reflection.

 

Second, a lot of folks are living in the 1980s, regurgitating the stuff they learned about football when they were younger, which was true then but isn't any longer.  Like, you need time and a good 5 year plan to "build" a strong organization.

 

The cap and free agency killed all that stuff decades ago!  This is a "win now" league and teams can go from crap to great or great to crap in a season, and usually do!  

 

There is a glimmer of hope here: Pegula has demonstrated time and again that he is an impatient man.  If things are not progressing at the pace he thinks they should be progressing, he is happy to fire people and try again with others.

He's done that several times over now with the Sabres, and the Bills.

 

Your average fan at this board may have infinite patience, but Pegula does not, and he is the only person who matters in all this.

 

If this season ends up in the toilet, I think McD could be gone.

 

If we qualify for a wildcard game and lose it, it will be more interesting.  He will probably get more time, with the caveat that he will have to do better next season.

 

At least I hope that is the way Pegula is thinking.

 

 

[teef]

11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

You have to remember most of this board are blind homers who only know how to cheer on the Bills and are incapable of objective reflection.

 

Second, a lot of folks are living in the 1980s, regurgitating the stuff they learned about football when they were younger, which was true then but isn't any longer.  Like, you need time and a good 5 year plan to "build" a strong organization.

 

The cap and free agency killed all that stuff decades ago!  This is a "win now" league and teams can go from crap to great or great to crap in a season, and usually do!  

 

There is a glimmer of hope here: Pegula has demonstrated time and again that he is an impatient man.  If things are not progressing at the pace he thinks they should be progressing, he is happy to fire people and try again with others.

He's done that several times over now with the Sabres, and the Bills.

 

Your average fan at this board may have infinite patience, but Pegula does not, and he is the only person who matters in all this.

 

If this season ends up in the toilet, I think McD could be gone.

 

If we qualify for a wildcard game and lose it, it will be more interesting.  He will probably get more time, with the caveat that he will have to do better next season.

 

At least I hope that is the way Pegula is thinking.

 

 

Your first paragraph sums you up perfectly. 

[TH3]

14 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

You have to remember most of this board are blind homers who only know how to cheer on the Bills and are incapable of objective reflection.

 

Second, a lot of folks are living in the 1980s, regurgitating the stuff they learned about football when they were younger, which was true then but isn't any longer.  Like, you need time and a good 5 year plan to "build" a strong organization.

 

The cap and free agency killed all that stuff decades ago!  This is a "win now" league and teams can go from crap to great or great to crap in a season, and usually do!  

 

There is a glimmer of hope here: Pegula has demonstrated time and again that he is an impatient man.  If things are not progressing at the pace he thinks they should be progressing, he is happy to fire people and try again with others.

He's done that several times over now with the Sabres, and the Bills.

 

Your average fan at this board may have infinite patience, but Pegula does not, and he is the only person who matters in all this.

 

If this season ends up in the toilet, I think McD could be gone.

 

If we qualify for a wildcard game and lose it, it will be more interesting.  He will probably get more time, with the caveat that he will have to do better next season.

 

At least I hope that is the way Pegula is thinking.

 

 

There are more examples of Nfl teams making rash moves and screwing things up.  You name the two cases where things turned out good.....for now.... why did you leave out the other ten where it just made things worse?

[Boatdrinks]

18 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

You have to remember most of this board are blind homers who only know how to cheer on the Bills and are incapable of objective reflection.

 

Second, a lot of folks are living in the 1980s, regurgitating the stuff they learned about football when they were younger, which was true then but isn't any longer.  Like, you need time and a good 5 year plan to "build" a strong organization.

 

The cap and free agency killed all that stuff decades ago!  This is a "win now" league and teams can go from crap to great or great to crap in a season, and usually do!  

 

There is a glimmer of hope here: Pegula has demonstrated time and again that he is an impatient man.  If things are not progressing at the pace he thinks they should be progressing, he is happy to fire people and try again with others.

He's done that several times over now with the Sabres, and the Bills.

 

Your average fan at this board may have infinite patience, but Pegula does not, and he is the only person who matters in all this.

 

If this season ends up in the toilet, I think McD could be gone.

 

If we qualify for a wildcard game and lose it, it will be more interesting.  He will probably get more time, with the caveat that he will have to do better next season.

 

At least I hope that is the way Pegula is thinking.

 

 

Lol, teams don’t “ usually” go from crap to great in a season. If you believe that happens, you probably weren’t paying attention to what the team was doing for a couple years before that. There aren’t even many “ great” NFL teams. That’s what free agency did. Your hyperbole is massive. 

   I’ll agree that the Pegulas are really the one’s whose opinion matters here, and if the Bills collapse with their easy remaining schedule then major changes would likely be considered.