Good teams/Bad teams and Points

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

Kudos for the detailed post, but this does not logically counter the argument that the Bills are 5-1, have not won convincingly, and faced many of the bottom teams.

 

 

NYJ: Bills +1, rest of NFL per game +15.

NYG: Bills +14, others +5.

CIN: Bills +4, others +13

NEP: Bills -6, others -28

TEN: Bills +7, others +3

MIA: Bills +10, others +27

 

TOTAL: Bills: +30, others: +35.

 

Summary: There are mitigating circumstances for sure, but other NFL teams are playing the Bills' competition about the same (slightly higher win marging) than the Bills played them. I'm hopeful the wins continue, and i expected playoffs this year, but I would not rank the Bills as a top "power team" based solely on their record.  What you can say is that they competed and beat the teams on their schedule and came out with W's.

 

 

I think it does, but if you actually look and think a minute about what I wrote and that's what you come up with, I don't quite know what to say.  It kind of seems to me to be missing the point, which is that perhaps the right comparator isn't how you thump a team relative to how others thump that same team.  There isn't a bonus for point spread in the W-L statistics, and with injuries personnel decisions etc. the same team week to week doesn't put up the same game.

 

PS "rest of NFL per game" 7 games into the season?

[notwoz]

I'm curious. Who said the Bills are "the worst 5-1 team in the history of the NFL"?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think it does, but if you actually look and think a minute about what I wrote and that's what you come up with, I don't quite know what to say.  It kind of seems to me to be missing the point, which is that perhaps the right comparator isn't how you thump a team relative to how others thump that same team.  There isn't a bonus for point spread in the W-L statistics, and with injuries personnel decisions etc. the same team week to week doesn't put up the same game.

 

PS "rest of NFL per game" 7 games into the season?

 

And it remains a match up league. The Bills beat the Titans by more than the average of the rest of the league because the Bills match up really well against the Titans. There are very few if any "complete" teams in this league. So it comes down to your strengths and weaknesses vs those of your opponent every single week. 

[LSHMEAB]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The caveat is I think every team has their penalties and drops.  The Bills, of course, documentably have a lot of turnovers but the important thing there is they seem to have been clustered in a couple of bad games, and we are now #20 vs #32 in that stat.

 

But I'm Right On with your conclusion.  It's one of those things - Belicheck**** has that taste for the jugular.  His teams are coached "don't take your foot off their throats, don't let up".  So when they're better, they blow the opponent out.  I think part of it is he wants to humiliate opponents and crush their confidence,

Kind of a random thought, but I think he challenged that Darnold completion in the second half Monday for precisely this reason. I think he wanted to "tarnish" the most trivial of positive plays the Jets had. The guy is an animal.

 

I'd love to see the Bills adopt the step on their throat attitude, but McDermott just isn't the kind of guy to pull those kind of stunts. Those kind of humiliation tactics are not necessary for success. Maybe it's part of what makes BB the best ever, but it's not required.

 

At any rate, it was a good point. 

Edited October 26, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Hapless Bills Fan]

50 minutes ago, notwoz said:

I'm curious. Who said the Bills are "the worst 5-1 team in the history of the NFL"?

 

It was quoted on another thread - some media dude, I'm too lazy to go back and look.

 

[SoTier]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Excellent post.  
 

The fact is, with the Bills’ defense (and with a less than dynamic offense) the Bills aren’t engineered to blow teams out.  When they get a two or three possession lead, McDermott grinds the clock and makes the other team earn every yard and every point.  As fans, we don’t always like that approach, but since he’s become the coach, the Bills haven’t blown a significant lead.

 

I don’t understand why anyone is picking the Eagles this week.  The Bills are at home and they just look like a superior team in almost every area, especially on defense.  Some people might point to the Miami game, where the Bills struggled against a team that also appeared to be inferior in every area, but I’m pretty sure we won that game.

 

Not only are the Bills not "engineered" to blow out teams, but as you noted, McDermott doesn't seem interested in doing that, even if his team had an offense that could put up points at will.

 

IMO, the Bills probably aren't quite ready to go up against the NFL "super powers"  because their offense isn't good enough to go toe to toe with the big boys when those offensive machines are on a roll and seem virtually unstoppable but they certainly are legitimate playoff contenders at this point in the season, more so than the Eagles.

[notwoz]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It was quoted on another thread - some media dude, I'm too lazy to go back and look.

 

Gee. Thanks for the clarification. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, notwoz said:

Gee. Thanks for the clarification. 

 

You're welcome?  I mean, it's a minor point in my post and there is a search function?

[notwoz]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're welcome?  I mean, it's a minor point in my post and there is a search function?

A minor point? It's only the second sentence in your post! Let me refresh your memory: Some are really going over the top and around the bend with claims like "Bills are the Worst 5-1 team ever.

 

If you're too lazy to use the search function, why should I? And if you can't support your allegation, why should I believe you? 

[apuszczalowski]

Here's the thing, I don't think anyone is unhappy the Bills are 5-1, but there are some who think that the may be overachieving and not as good as their record. They have only played one team with a winning record and that happened to be their only loss, they also can't control who they play and can only beat the teams they are scheduled to play. But watching those games, the wins weren't as convincing as what you would expect from a 5-1 team. So outside of Bills fans, very few people are seeing the Bills as being a threat at 5-1, they appear to be getting lucky.

 

Until they start getting more convincing wins, and beating better teams, that attitude outside of Buffalo won't change. We saw something similar to this when they would lose close games and fans would say we are better then their record. Right now teams are taking the Bills seriously in games, but I don't think any team is scared of them or think they can't win....

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, notwoz said:

Gee. Thanks for the clarification. 

 

Wasn't it James Jones?

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

5 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Concise, analytical and logical.  Hapless how did you get this on the board?

hes a moderator

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

hes a moderator

 

But please don't let that stop anyone else's concise analytical logical posts.

 

Don't tell @Chandler#81, but I located and disabled the "only stupid threads allowed" filter some time back.  Shhhh! It's a special secret, just between us!

[mykidsdad]

Great write up. A win today will do a lot to shut up the naysayers. Facts and logic only take us so far with some people, but beating the Eagles may sway a whole lot of people, the kind of people who dont watch the games but make comments based upon name recognition and uninformed assumptions. You know the people: they work for ESPN, CBS, Fox, and have radio shows and podcasts.

[BringBackFlutie]

21 hours ago, Gugny said:

If the Bills clean up the untimely penalties, turnovers and drops, then the point differential will take care of itself.

 

Either way, a 3-2 win is the same as a 33-0 win.  I'll take a notch in the "W" column any way we can get it.

No one likes hearing this because of Jauron, but the truth is, it's hard to win in the NFL.  The teams who do it consistently, regardless of score or competition, are very good.

[vorpma]

23 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Excellent post! Sadly the target audience will quit in the 3rd paragraph and call the facts fake news.

Great point I will tell you what is not fake news, when the gun goes off to end the game and you have more points than the other team. How you got them don't mean squat and the end of December you either have enough wins to make the playoff, how you won them don't mean squat! Everything else is just hot air and gibberish - not necessarily fake news. FYI don't quit reading after the opening "Great point!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See, I don't follow this logic at all. 

 

Let me try to walk through it as I see it, and maybe you'll see the gap in my thinking and put me straight.  Fundamentally, I don't think "scoring more points on a bad team" makes a team intrinsically better.  Consider the following two scenarios:

Team A plays a bad team.  They get out to a lead.  They then pummel the snot out of that bad team, because they can.

Team B plays a bad team.  They get out to a lead, then they turn conservative and grind off the clock.

How does the fact that Team A has a "kick sand in the face of the weakling" mentality manifestly make them a superior team when facing a good team?

How does the fact that Team B has a "go conservative" mentality manifestly make them a worse team when facing a good team?

 

Now the Bills, most of the season, have neither been Team A nor Team B.  We've been Team T.  Team T plays a team, good or bad, and makes stupid mistakes or miscues leading to turnovers or stalling them out.  This puts them behind, but they hang tough and keep scrapping and end the game with more points on the board.  So to me, what that points to isn't "well we need to score more points".  It's "we need to avoid dumb mistakes that put us down in a hole or stall us".

 

 

Why?  What's your logic or justification?  I think it's B.S. even for this season, much less for all time.   I showed my work here.  What's yours?

 

 

I'm not sure what this means.  If the Bills had a differential of around 60 points over 6 games, they'd be at 10 points/game differential - which is 5 points per game more then they're at now.  That would put them up with the Vikings, Cowboys, and Ravens and ahead of the Chiefs, Packers, and Panthers.

 

Do you think the Vikings and Cowboys are more likely to keep winning games than the Chiefs and Packers?  Show your reasoning.

For that matter, do you think the Vikings and Cowboys are more likely to keep winning games than the Rams, Texans and NO Saints?

 

I agree that the Bills are team T and they ate team T whether they are playing a good or bad team.  The problem is the Bills have only played one real good team, one team that was supposed to be good, but maybe is so-so, and four real bad teams that have three wins between them.

 

I'll also agree that they are continuously shooting themselves in the foot to stop scoring drives with penalties and turnovers.  If they stopped doing that, they likely would be averaging 10 more points a game.  But they're not and what's to say that will change?  If they go out today and score 35 on Philly that would be a real good sign that maybe they can clean it up.  But until that happens I just don't see them continuing to win against the better teams in the league averaging 20 points a game.

 

Maybe they are one of these teams that just plays to the level of the competition and keep games close but usually that will eventually catch up with you. Today will be a good indicator as they are playing a good team that hasn't lived up to their billing so far.

 

Is 5 more points a game a big difference no.  To be honest initially I was going to pick a number like around 75 or 80 point differential .  If they were up there, I'd feel it's much more sustainable.  But then looked at your list and 80 points would place them up around #3 in the league and just don't see them being that good of a team, maybe next season?

 

The 5 point per game differential isn't what worries me, it's the 20 points per game scoring average that is going to lead to loses against better teams.

 

[apuszczalowski]

9 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

Great write up. A win today will do a lot to shut up the naysayers. Facts and logic only take us so far with some people, but beating the Eagles may sway a whole lot of people, the kind of people who dont watch the games but make comments based upon name recognition and uninformed assumptions. You know the people: they work for ESPN, CBS, Fox, and have radio shows and podcasts.

Or those people working at the network's watch without blinders being Bills homers and are basing judgement on what they see on the field during the game? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

Or those people working at the network's watch without blinders being Bills homers and are basing judgement on what they see on the field during the game? 

 

Well, maybe, but a lot of the people working at the networks say stuff that’s just obviously out of sync with what we see on the field.  Mykidsdad has a point about people making comments on name recognition

 

As I pointed out above, the Bills haven’t been Team A or Team B, but Team T - a team which has been stopped by turnovers, penalties, and miscues.  It’s far from the only factor, but today was no different in that regard.  The short-field from Allen’s fumble was one key play.  Missing the FG at the end of the half that would still have tied it was another.

 

We answered some questions today: we are not as good of a team as many of us hoped.  The Eagles also answered some questions: they are determined to be a better team than their record says they are.  But that doesn’t mean it’s all “Bills homers” vs “unbiased network observers”, it’s just not that simple.