Good teams/Bad teams and Points

[Hapless Bills Fan]

OK, we're hearing all kinds of press pundits predicting Iggles win, including our own Joe Buscaglia.  Some are really going over the top and around the bend with claims like "Bills are the Worst 5-1 team ever.  Then there's all the analytics sites with their "special sauce" secret formulas proving Josh Allen sux.

 

With 26 hrs until game time I thought I'd interject a few facts, and when I say facts, I mean actual facts not the suppositions and inferences sometimes described as such.  Some say "Football is a simple game", and Hapless is a Simple Fan, so let's go there.

 

What matters at the end of the day isn't how many points your offense scores, or how many passing yards your QB racks up.  It's whether your team has more points on the scoreboard than the other team when the 4Q clock winds to 0.  That's a W: Our team points > Their team points at the end of the game.  Simple, right?  Doesn't matter how many points you score or don't score - just whether you got more than the other guy after 60 minutes.

 

So let's look at something simple - the point differential.  This is just [points a team scores - points a team gives up].

To normalize for bye weeks and Thurs nite, let's divide by the number of games a team has played, to get point differential per game.    The table below is derived from pro-football-reference and sorted by Point diff/game.  Wins are listed to the right, for comparison. 

 

Here we go:

 

In a development shocking no one, we see that this statistic, averaged over 6 or 7 games, is in fact pretty correlated to the number of W a team has.  But one can look at this, and flag certain teams that may be a bit better or worse than their record implies.  Now at this point in the season, there's a lot of football left, and +/- 1 game likely doesn't mean too much-a little bit of luck or a single blowout for or against.  But +/- 2 games should twitch an eyebrow at this point in the season, in other words, if a team's "neighbors" lined up by point differential are all 3-4 win teams, a 6 win team stands out.  If one's neighbors are 2-3 win teams, a 5 win team stands out.

 

One would think, if a team is indeed "the worst 5-1 team in the history of the NFL", they would stand out by having a worse point differential/game than their record would indicate.  And there is indeed a 5-win team that stands out as having a lower point differential per game than the other 5 win teams - but it's not the Bills.  It's the Seahawks.  There is even a 6-win team that stands out as not being where we expect the 6 win teams to be - that would be the New Orleans Saints.

 

In contrast, if a team is better than its record suggests, one might expect to find them out-of-place, having a better point differential than their record would indicate - and there is, but it's not the 3-4 Iggles.  It's the 4-3 Cowboys.  The Iggles are down in the 2 win neighborhood on point diff/game, which is probably not a big deal.  But it implies they are NOT better than their record suggests.

 

Now let's look at our Bills.  We're trailing 2 of the 4 5 win teams, in the 4-win team neighborhood.  One 5 win team is significantly below us, as are 3/5 4 win teams.  That suggests to me that we are, in fact, what our record says we are at this point.  With a different bounce one way or the other, we might be a 4 win team or we might even be a 6 win team.  We're not up with the "Big Dogs" yet.  But nothing out of the ordinary.

Last point.  It keeps being said that "good teams blow other teams out".  I think one can see by this metric, that can't be true.  There is one team that, much as I hate to say it, is blowing teams out.  They're a great team.  SF is also doing very well, winning by just >2 TD on average.  But for most of the top-10 teams in the NFL, the average margin of victory is just over a TD.

 

So that's my contribution: the Bills aren't a Big Dog yet.  We aren't leading the league.  But we're either at, or where we should be, for a 5 win team.  We aren't even the worst 5 win team this season, let alone ever, by a simple metric directly tied to what wins: the difference between the points you score, and the points you give up, at the end of the game.

 

 

 

[Gugny]

If the Bills clean up the untimely penalties, turnovers and drops, then the point differential will take care of itself.

 

Either way, a 3-2 win is the same as a 33-0 win.  I'll take a notch in the "W" column any way we can get it.

[machine gun kelly]

It’s kind of cool we’re ranked higher as you mentioned the Seahawks, but also the Saints you mentioned, and the Texans and Colts.

 

Hapless, you always bring you’re A game.  I appreciate you’re information, and even expect it from a pro like you.  

 

Go Bills!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

If the Bills clean up the untimely penalties, turnovers and drops, then the point differential will take care of itself.

 

Either way, a 3-2 win is the same as a 33-0 win.  I'll take a notch in the "W" column any way we can get it.

 

The caveat is I think every team has their penalties and drops.  The Bills, of course, documentably have a lot of turnovers but the important thing there is they seem to have been clustered in a couple of bad games, and we are now #20 vs #32 in that stat.

 

But I'm Right On with your conclusion.  It's one of those things - Belicheck**** has that taste for the jugular.  His teams are coached "don't take your foot off their throats, don't let up".  So when they're better, they blow the opponent out.  I think part of it is he wants to humiliate opponents and crush their confidence, so he's in their heads next time he plays them.  But there is a legit reason - when you're usually winning, if you don't play tough until the end you become soft and unused to a 60 minute struggle.

 

Outside of that, though, I'm just SMH over this fascination with "style points".  Just win, Baby, whether it's 32-0 or 3-2.  Still a W.

[FLFan]

There you go, confusing the situation with pesky facts.  How dare you!  Great write up Hapless, and thanks.  This certainly fits what I see: a pretty good team with potential to be even better.  (And fun to watch by the way). I will take that for now and enjoy the ride.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Excellent post! Sadly the target audience will quit in the 3rd paragraph and call the facts fake news.

[Gugny]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The caveat is I think every team has their penalties and drops.  The Bills, of course, documentably have a lot of turnovers but the important thing there is they seem to have been clustered in a couple of bad games, and we are now #20 vs #32 in that stat.

 

But I'm Right On with your conclusion.  It's one of those things - Belicheck**** has that taste for the jugular.  His teams are coached "don't take your foot off their throats, don't let up".  So when they're better, they blow the opponent out.  I think part of it is he wants to humiliate opponents and crush their confidence, so he's in their heads next time he plays them.  But there is a legit reason - when you're usually winning, if you don't play tough until the end you become soft and unused to a 60 minute struggle.

 

Outside of that, though, I'm just SMH over this fascination with "style points".  Just win, Baby, whether it's 32-0 or 3-2.  Still a W.

 

This is strictly from my memory bank, but it seems like the Bills have had a lot of these penalties, turnovers and/or drops while they were moving the ball well - thus turning some, what would appear to be, likely TD drives into either FGs or punts.

 

A bit off topic, but I also feel like the Bills need to do better at bouncing back from these mistakes (in this case, drops and penalties) and making up the lost yardage.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Excellent post! Sadly the target audience will quit in the 3rd paragraph and call the facts fake news.

 

Haha I was figuring they'd focus on the "Hapless is a simple fan" part and roll with it LOL!

[eball]

31 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Hapless, you always bring you’re A game.  I appreciate you’re information, and even expect it from a pro like you.

 

Your too kind.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

It’s kind of cool we’re ranked higher as you mentioned the Seahawks, but also the Saints you mentioned, and the Texans and Colts.

 

Hapless, you always bring you’re A game.  I appreciate you’re information, and even expect it from a pro like you.  

 

Go Bills!

 

Sort of a nit, but I don't think this is a "ranking", exactly.  At this point in the season, one game bad or good can sway the results.

 

But to the contention that the Bills offense isn't productive enough for them to be "legit" with the 5-1 record, I think the point is clear:  it's not the offense, it's not the defense, it's the way they work together.  The Bills are right about where you expect  a 5-1 team when that aspect is considered.

 

 

[mannc]

Excellent post.  
 

The fact is, with the Bills’ defense (and with a less than dynamic offense) the Bills aren’t engineered to blow teams out.  When they get a two or three possession lead, McDermott grinds the clock and makes the other team earn every yard and every point.  As fans, we don’t always like that approach, but since he’s become the coach, the Bills haven’t blown a significant lead.

 

I don’t understand why anyone is picking the Eagles this week.  The Bills are at home and they just look like a superior team in almost every area, especially on defense.  Some people might point to the Miami game, where the Bills struggled against a team that also appeared to be inferior in every area, but I’m pretty sure we won that game.

Edited October 26, 2019 by mannc

[Don Otreply]

Thanks Hap, well thought out thread, very well explained. What ever will the naysayers do to bolster themselves now....

 

Go Bills!!!

[Real McClappy]

The whole "your team didn't play anybody" is weak as hell for the Bills and Pats. 

 

If those teams beat the Bills and Pats then they be good no?

 

My point is

And we won making them a so called bad team or nobody.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Real McCoy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Thanks Hap, well thought out thread, very well explained. What ever will the naysayers do to bolster themselves now....

 

Go Bills!!!

 

They shall find something.  I have complete faith   Wentz has twice the total QBR that Allen does!  (ok, I exaggerate.  1.86x)  Obvious Winner!

 

Seriously, I'm not trying to dis off the Eagles or say the Bills got a cakewalk.  Far from it.  Either team could win.

 

But the stuff about "How Great Thou Art" ('cuz you won 2 years ago) to the Eagles and "Worst 5-1 Team Ever" to the Bills got piled a bit too high and deep for me.  At the end of the day, "you are what your record says you are" and the factor that drives that record is whether your team scores more points than they give up every game - not whether you blow teams out of the stadium.

 

Just Win, Baby!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

But the counter to this is the Bills (and NE) have both played a very easy schedule so should be scoring more points and maybe even a larger differential than they are in these games.  When playing better teams they will need to score more points to win.  If they had a differential  of around 60, I'd feel much better.

 

Not saying the team is terrible, but do agree with some of the headlines that state the Bills are the worst 5-1 team.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[GunnerBill]

The concern purely stems from the fact the Bills have "beaten nobody" and by nobody they mean "no big hype big market team". In come the Philadelphia Eagles. Beat them and get to 6-1 and I think the narrative on the Bills will start to shift. 

 

There are outliers too.... call him a loudmouth know nothing.... or the ultimate sports shockjock but Colin Cowherd has been on the bandwagon since week 2 saying repeatedly "I think the Bills are just good - top 3 defense, limited a bit offensively but great scoring TDs in the redzone." Think everyone would accept that as a fair summary. He has actually picked the Eagles to win this week though so maybe he should be back on my list of talking heads we hate? 

[eball]

13 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

When playing better teams they will need to score more points to win.  If they had a differential  of around 60, I'd feel much better.

 

I'm sorry for picking on you, but this simply sounds ridiculous to me.  They need to score more points than their opponents.  Period.  What makes you or anyone else "feel better" is all psychological and has nothing to do with whether or not the Bills are a good team.

[jimmy10]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Outside of that, though, I'm just SMH over this fascination with "style points".  Just win, Baby, whether it's 32-0 or 3-2.  Still a W.

I’m with you on this. We’ve traded moral victories for actual victories so far this year, so the nattering nabobs are left searching for moral defeats. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I'm sorry for picking on you, but this simply sounds ridiculous to me.  They need to score more points than their opponents.  Period.  What makes you or anyone else "feel better" is all psychological and has nothing to do with whether or not the Bills are a good team.

 

Better maybe was a bad choice of words.  I'll try to  make it clearer.  If they had a differential of around 60, there's a much better chance they will continue to win games.  What's ridiculous to me is if you think the Bills can continue  winning say go 11-5 for the seaosn averaging 20 points a game.

 

I also think it's kind of ridiculous for someone to actually post something as stupid as " What makes you or anyone else "feel better" is all psychological and has nothing to do with whether or not the Bills are a good team."   I really think most people do understand that their personal feeling won't influence whether the Bills win or not!

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

If the Bills clean up the untimely penalties, turnovers and drops, then the point differential will take care of itself.

 

Either way, a 3-2 win is the same as a 33-0 win.  I'll take a notch in the "W" column any way we can get it.

Gimme 13  more W's