Barnwell Blind Stats - Allen and Goff

[inthebuff]

Player A: 61.8% completion percentage, 7.0 yards per attempt, 7 INTs

Player B: 62.4% completion percentage, 7.0 yards per attempt, 7 INTs

Let's start with a straightforward comparison. Player A is Jared Goff's 2019 season so far, with the Rams quarterback hitting these relatively mortal numbers only after getting to face the free parking space that is the Falcons' defense last Sunday. Goff should continue his return to form against the Bengals in Week 8, but the former first overall pick will have to contend with the likes of the Steelers, Bears and Ravens after Los Angeles' subsequent bye.

 

Player B is Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has unquestionably improved as a passer after a moribund rookie season. If anything, he deserves a bit of a boost given that he has played the Patriots, which is his only truly dreadful performance of the season. The Bills have surrounded Allen with a better infrastructure and receivers than the replacement-level talents he worked with in 2018, and his numbers have rebounded by asking him to throw deep less frequently. Throw in Allen's distinct advantage as a runner (190 rushing yards and 13 first downs, to 16 yards and three first downs for Goff) and you could very well argue that Allen has been the more productive player this season.

Of course, we're telling different stories about these players because they look to be on different paths. Goff, who played like a franchise quarterback for most of last season, appears to be taking steps backward. Allen, who looked to be in over his head as a rookie, is on the way up. They're both roughly in the same spot as below-average quarterbacks, with Goff and Allen ranking 27th and 29th, respectively, in Total QBR. Goff's track record of NFL success suggests that he's more likely to improve, but who can be sure?

[Matt_In_NH]

So they are both roughy below average qb’s.   What is the point?

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, mattynh said:

So they are both roughy below average qb’s.   What is the point?

The point is many think Goff is really good, and many think Allen isn't.

[Johnnycage46]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Allen looked in over his head his first few starts as a rookie, but I never thought that to be the case from the Jacksonville game on. 

I agree with this save for the Pats game...but as we are seeing this year, the Pats D is making everyone look silly.  I really like the trajectory Allen seems to be on.  No idea if it will pan out but there are encouraging signs of growth.

[Orlando Buffalo]

I have never been that impressed with Goff- also I expect Allen for the last 8 games this year to have better numbers than he currently has produced since he is clearly getting smarter. 

[TH3]

Anyone know who has the best fourth quarter passer rating this year?

[JaCrispy]

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The point is many think Goff is really good, and many think Allen isn't.

I don’t know anyone that thinks Goff is good...personally I always thought he was just a basic bich that was highly overrated. ?

Edited October 25, 2019 by JaCrispy

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Allen looked in over his head his first few starts as a rookie, but I never thought that to be the case from the Jacksonville game on. 

Maybe the Pats game last year a bit too. But yeah, even with his head scratching plays I don’t get the “he looks like he doesn’t belong at all” vibe. Who knows how good he’ll actually be, but he at least looks like he’s on track to be a consistent starter for an extended period of time which is more than we’ve had in 20+ years. 

[hemma]

I wonder what Goff's Total QBR (espn's special, secret pudding) would be if he had played the Patriots?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Anyone know who has the best fourth quarter passer rating this year?

Shirley you jest.

 

This Allen Goff stats has been spoken of in at least two threads and the fourth quarter passer rating at least a dozen 

Josh Allen leads the entire NFL in 4th QTR ratings 

 

[Rob's House]

I don't think this dude knows what "moribund" means.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, mattynh said:

So they are both roughy below average qb’s.   What is the point?

 

I think his point is that Goff was regarded as a promising next-gen Rodgers or Brady, while Allen was (is) regarded as - what did they say - "Big armed bust" "Joke of a first round QB draft pick" "Has statistically less than zero chance to succeed in the NFL" or words to that effect.

 

And yet right now they are putting up similar numbers

[zonabb]

I am no blind homer Allen supporter but at the same time, I am also an unabashed detractor of QBR, which is supposed to measure, magically, the QB's impact on winning or the game's output. This is a 5-1 team and he's lead how many comebacks in that record? So my point is, QBR is no better a metric to measure a QB than just reviewing the whole on one's stats and outcomes. It's an index, and indices are fraught with issues, the biggest is variable selection, which in the case of QBR is unknown. So when you hide the variables you use to construct the index, you essentially invalidate it as a measure as it provides no review by anyone. And further, since your intent is to use the index to give yourself credibility as some "genius" that never happens because you get ignored due to people not understanding the index. In other words, it's classic Great and Powerful Oz where you have to accept the premise and not look behind the curtain. It's simply shite.

[jletha]

Factor in that the Rams have better WRs and better offensive coach. Plus Allen has been mostly trending up since last year.

 

In the two games since the Pats when Im sure Josh and Daboll had to have a reckoning about his reckless style of play Josh has gone: 

 

67%, 104.9 rating, 422 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int, 7.2 Y/A, 59 yards rushing, 1 turnover

 

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by jletha

[inthebuff]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think his point is that Goff was regarded as a promising next-gen Rodgers or Brady, while Allen was (is) regarded as - what did they say - "Big armed bust" "Joke of a first round QB draft pick" "Has statistically less than zero chance to succeed in the NFL" or words to that effect.

 

And yet right now they are putting up similar numbers

 

And another point...which is interesting...Barnwell writes, "Goff's track record of NFL success suggests that he's more likely to improve, but who can be sure?"  It seems to be one of those hedge your bets comments.  He may not be likely to improve, given two things - Gurley is always hurt and he needs Gurley for the play-action to work.  And the fact that many defenses are now switching after the 15 second QB mic turnoff time, thereby making Goff read the defense.  

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, inthebuff said:

And another point...which is interesting...Barnwell writes, "Goff's track record of NFL success suggests that he's more likely to improve, but who can be sure?"  It seems to be one of those hedge your bets comments.  He may not be likely to improve, given two things - Gurley is always hurt and he needs Gurley for the play-action to work.  And the fact that many defenses are now switching after the 15 second QB mic turnoff time, thereby making Goff read the defense. 

 

There's also the whole "regression to the mean" phenomenon. 

What a team hopes to see in their young QB is that he'll struggle as he adjusts to the speed and complexity of the pro game, and then he'll take a step and never look back.  But what often happens is that the QB takes a step, and looks promising, but then Something Happens.  He gets injured, and has to fight back from it.  He loses a key piece or pieces that helped him find success.  There's a coaching change and he struggles with the new system.  Maybe teams just get more film on him and figure him out.    Maybe he performed beyond his actual abilities.

 

Whatever the reason, he takes a step back and he may, or may not, ever return to form.

 

Other QB do progress, and stay there or keep trending upwards.

 

It's why I hold back from crowning new QB the next great thing after one hot season or "maxed out" after their second year.

 

 

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, inthebuff said:

 

And another point...which is interesting...Barnwell writes, "Goff's track record of NFL success suggests that he's more likely to improve, but who can be sure?"  It seems to be one of those hedge your bets comments.  He may not be likely to improve, given two things - Gurley is always hurt and he needs Gurley for the play-action to work.  And the fact that many defenses are now switching after the 15 second QB mic turnoff time, thereby making Goff read the defense.  

 

 

 

But playaction effectiveness has been shown through advanced metrics to have literally no correlation between how well you are running the ball and its actual success so I'm doubting that is even true...he might just be a one year wonder that DC's have figured out like Kaepernick was.

[quinnearlysghost88]

1 hour ago, mattynh said:

So they are both roughy below average qb’s.   What is the point?

Your uppence will come soon, and the Pats fans will disappear into the sea when Brady and BB leave. 

[Billsfan1972]

And I want to know whether Allen really is the 29th best QB in the NFL.  

 

I want him top 10 and this is what drives me crazy is that thew Bills offensive philosophy is that he is #29 so design an offense for that.

 

You don't use the 7th draft pick to select the 29th best QB!!!!!

 

BTW I think he is top 10. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, mattynh said:

So they are both roughy below average qb’s.   What is the point?

 

The perceived direction that they are going. 

 

One was just outside the MVP race a season or two ago. 

 

Throw-out the New England game and I would bet Allen's Total QBR is much more respectable. Maybe even better than "below average". And you could argue it could be fair to throw out the New England game as they are probably the only team in the league that has made every QB they have faced look like Nathan Peterman 2.0. And that includes Goff and the high powered Rams offense just some 8 months ago. 

 

Goff has played the 49ers who are no slouch on defense either so there is that I suppose. But nobody is playing better on defense right now than New England.