mannc Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 6 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: The line is most certainly set on data. The big money movers rely EXCLUSIVELY on data. So they basically set a line that they believe to be accurate. If you have an accurate line, you theoretically create a line that would generate even action on both sides. The objective is of course to set lines that get that equal action because they just want the juice. There are certain games (like this one) where the general public will be all over one side(in this case the Bills), but the book/big money likes the opponent. As a rule, I hate to see the Bills in a position where the book/movers are on one side and the "public" is on the other. The line will move if they're taking more money on one side than the other. At that point, they want to entice action on the OTHER side. I know that was convoluted, but from personal experience, I prefer to be on the side that seems "wrong" to people like you and I. That, OF COURSE, is not some kind of absolute. Last week for instance, the big money LOVED Atlanta and the public loved the Rams. Not quite sure why the data suggested only a -3 for LA against such a struggling team like the Falcons, but it did. If any of this was absolute, I'd be betting 5 k all over the place and not sitting there writing tickets! It does seem a little odd that the Bills are only -1.5 at home. Where did this game open up? If I understand what you’re saying, there is some data or algorithm out there that is enticing the big money toward Philly in this game, while the general public is betting the Bills, right? 1
billsfan_34 Posted October 24, 2019 Author Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said: Link in the OP is their main messageboard? If yes it is really weird since there almost no posts there... I was wondering about this for a while and I didn't find any other real Eagles board. Really strange given the size of their fanbase. Did I miss something? I found their board to not be as substantial as ours but their is some good stuff in there. I think the Eagles fans have a few more boards as well.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 9 hours ago, devldog131 said: PhilaDehlia. A quick Google search will direct you right to her Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube pages. Awesome Thanks . I was kind of close... Hard to remember when we see / speak of here once every 4 years @PhilaDehlia Where are you???? Its that TIME again. Bring it on woman!!! ❤️
foreboding Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: Yeah, my friend. It's tough to say early in the week, but those Jimmy's and Joe's(I call em Darrell, short for derelict) are definitely taking Buffalo, but the line is sort of moving towards Philly which means there's real money on the Iggle's. The Darrell's generally wait until Saturday or Sunday to bet, so it's a bit early to say definitely what they'll do. The "chatter" is that the Bills should definitely beat Philly(the Eagles SUCK based on the Dallas game. Bills are 5-1(They really don't even know enough to understand our schedule has been easy.) I'm boring myself here, but after doing this for 10 years, I've come to the conclusion that I want to see these people bet on the other team. Certainly not any kind of guarantee, but more often than not and all that jazz. If the line is coming down, people are taking the eagles. You add points to induce bets on the dog. Edited October 24, 2019 by foreboding 1
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 22 hours ago, dave mcbride said: The Bills have played the Eagles once since 2012 (in 2015)! The Eagles won that game. LOL. Well, in fairness to that Iggles fan's post, the Bills did successfully break out the vaunted No Huddle attack against Randall Cunningham's Eagles for the first time during the 1990 season, so...there's that to support the statement that "The Bills always give us a hard time."
dpberr Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 19 hours ago, prissythecat said: I think thats a fair characterization that Wentz is a better QB in terms of raw physical talent and that Foles seems to thrive in a WCO. But I also quickly checked some stats. So far in 2019 , Wentz has 240 pass attempts . 59 of these went to Ertz, 43 to Agholor , and 41 to Jeffery. So 24% (59/240) of the passes went to Ertz . 1 out of every 4 passes is hardly keying on a receiver when a team typically runs formations with 3 to 4 receivers? In 2017, the last time Wentz played almost the whole season (13 games) , Jeffery had more targets than Ertz (120 to 110) . Good analysis. I think something interesting is the number of snaps is inverse to the targets and catches - Jeffrey and Agholor play 90-95% of the snaps in an game and Ertz, just 80%, yet Ertz receives more targets. I wonder if Jeffrey and Agholor receive their targets when Ertz is taking a breather. (I honestly wouldn't know that, just a thought.)
prissythecat Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, dpberr said: Good analysis. I think something interesting is the number of snaps is inverse to the targets and catches - Jeffrey and Agholor play 90-95% of the snaps in an game and Ertz, just 80%, yet Ertz receives more targets. I wonder if Jeffrey and Agholor receive their targets when Ertz is taking a breather. (I honestly wouldn't know that, just a thought.) Thats a good point on Ertz. I'm sure there is a a site where we could find the info needed to adjust for percentage of snaps .
Fan in Chicago Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 16 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said: Well which one is it? A 10+ point win or a good game? Yes
YodaMan79 Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) As Bills fans, we should be happy if Ertz is over targeted. There is a reason he's referred to as "No YAC Zach". As soon as he catches the ball he flops on the ground. They also become really predictable if Wentz is going to lock on to a possession receiver. Accurate post: https://section215.com/2019/09/18/philadelphia-eagles-zach-ertz-yac/ "Of the 1,163 yards Ertz hauled in last season, only 363 came after the catch, the 36th highest mark in the league behind players like Austin Ekeler, Tyler Boyd, and T.J. Yeldon. Again, some of that has to do with the trappings of playing tight end, and specifically being schemes as Wentz’s emergency check down target when under pressure, but after catching that many passes, one would have to assume his yards after the catch would be higher just on volume alone – that’s how averages work, right? Need proof? Look no further than San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle, who racked up the second most YAC (784) in the league on 28 fewer touches. Conversely, on the 2018 season, Ertz had exactly zero catches of over 50 yards and zero over 40 yards. Despite catching 116 balls, Ertz’s longest catch only went for 34 yards" Edited October 24, 2019 by YodaMan79
PlayoffsPlease Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 19 hours ago, Doc Brown said: The public is overreacting to the Eagles getting destroyed on national TV. Same thing with the Jets as the Jags should not be favored by six. If the line gets to Eagles +3 there's really good value in betting them. I disagree, i think the over reaction is to the Bills struggling with Dolphins. At the core, the Bills have the talent to compete with the Patriots. They are much better than the Eagles. Bills should cover.
stuvian Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 On 10/23/2019 at 6:34 PM, ScotSHO said: Probably permanently scarred from 1990 game: HEck no, only Hughes and maybe Lorax remain, but he may not have been a starter then... thanks for that footage. A friend was at that game and still talks about the Cunningham to Barnett bomb. I'd never seen it. Amazing play
LSHMEAB Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) As the the OP; Iggles fans are by and large the most obnoxious in the country. I lived in Delaware for a number of years growing up and listened to WIP just to annoy myself I suppose. There was a guy named Howard Eskin who would basically just make fun of the caller's. Now THAT was my kind of guy. This other stuff is tedious, but I saw some encouraging signs today. Lots of our "less capable" bettors taking the Eagles than I anticipated and the line ticking up a bit. Starting to shape up as not the bettor's "trap" game I feared. FWIW! 10 hours ago, foreboding said: If the line is coming down, people are taking the eagles. You add points to induce bets on the dog. Much more nuanced. It really depends on WHO'S moving the line. 14 hours ago, mannc said: It does seem a little odd that the Bills are only -1.5 at home. Where did this game open up? If I understand what you’re saying, there is some data or algorithm out there that is enticing the big money toward Philly in this game, while the general public is betting the Bills, right? Line hasn't moved much. Ticked down initially but now ticking up slightly. Edited October 24, 2019 by LSHMEAB
frostbitmic Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 Eagles fans boo'd Santa Claus. They also got their backsides kicked by the Cowpokes last week, which could add to their frustrations.
billsfan_34 Posted October 24, 2019 Author Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, YodaMan79 said: As Bills fans, we should be happy if Ertz is over targeted. There is a reason he's referred to as "No YAC Zach". As soon as he catches the ball he flops on the ground. They also become really predictable if Wentz is going to lock on to a possession receiver. Accurate post: https://section215.com/2019/09/18/philadelphia-eagles-zach-ertz-yac/ "Of the 1,163 yards Ertz hauled in last season, only 363 came after the catch, the 36th highest mark in the league behind players like Austin Ekeler, Tyler Boyd, and T.J. Yeldon. Again, some of that has to do with the trappings of playing tight end, and specifically being schemes as Wentz’s emergency check down target when under pressure, but after catching that many passes, one would have to assume his yards after the catch would be higher just on volume alone – that’s how averages work, right? Need proof? Look no further than San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle, who racked up the second most YAC (784) in the league on 28 fewer touches. Conversely, on the 2018 season, Ertz had exactly zero catches of over 50 yards and zero over 40 yards. Despite catching 116 balls, Ertz’s longest catch only went for 34 yards" It is still a ton of yards out of a TE no matter how you slice it and dice it - chains are moving and TD’s are being scored.
Sundancer Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 10 hours ago, billsfan_34 said: It is still a ton of yards out of a TE no matter how you slice it and dice it - chains are moving and TD’s are being scored. Ertz and Goedert will be a challenge even if Milano plays. If he's out, they will have big days.
stuvian Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 the Eagles lost to mediocre Cowboy team badly on a short week. Our D line is going to hammer Wentz who has never played in the Ralph. I'm putting some faith $ down on the Bills
Chandler#81 Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 12 hours ago, stuvian said: thanks for that footage. A friend was at that game and still talks about the Cunningham to Barnett bomb. I'd never seen it. Amazing play I was at the game as well. Lost in history is the FACT Cornelius Bennett recovered a Cunningham fumble Bruce created. Refs claimed it was incomplete, but it was blasted out of his hand. Would have been very critical had Philly come all the way back. Kelly was never better than the 1st quarter with Reed & Lofton torching iggles on huge gains and long TDs. Exciting as hell! 1
Wacka Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: I was at the game as well. Lost in history is the FACT Cornelius Bennett recovered a Cunningham fumble Bruce created. Refs claimed it was incomplete, but it was blasted out of his hand. Would have been very critical had Philly come all the way back. Kelly was never better than the 1st quarter with Reed & Lofton torching iggles on huge gains and long TDs. Exciting as hell! Was at that game as well. We had season tickets on the goal line in tat end zone. I still remember Cunningham having swivel hips on that play and another one in that game. 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 On 10/23/2019 at 10:22 PM, Doc Brown said: The public is overreacting to the Eagles getting destroyed on national TV. Same thing with the Jets as the Jags should not be favored by six. If the line gets to Eagles +3 there's really good value in betting them. They are not. The money line is just as, if not more, important as the spread. Here, the money line is only -125. That tells me that the spread is exactly where it should be, because the Bills are only getting slightly more bets than the Eagles.
Luka Posted October 25, 2019 Posted October 25, 2019 https://insidetheiggles.com/2019/10/24/philadelphia-eagles-miss-frank-reich-now-ever/ This is why I think the Eagles will lose Sunday, more than anything. Reich has proven to be a QB whisperer. Wentz, then Foles, returned Luck to MVP form and now has Jacoby Brissett atop the AFC South. I think Eagles fans will continue to wait for a return to form for Wentz, which won't come without a play caller of Reich's caliber.
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