dave mcbride Posted October 22, 2019 Author Posted October 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Maybe? It's been pointed out that the Bills schedule to date features teams with losing records. Well, that happens. Sometimes teams that start out with a lot of wins, don't finish that way because their schedules get harder. But the opposite is true, too. Sometimes teams that start out with a lot of losses, get back in the game because their schedule gets easier. So DVOA now and DVOA when the dust settles at the end of the season, not same thing. In case anyone is unfamiliar, here is Football Outsider's primer on how DVOA is calculated. I like Football Outsiders better than some of the analytics outfits, but I remain skeptical of any statistic that can't be explained with simple calculations. In fact, in the above link, they flat out state "we need to have the entire play-by-play of a season in order to compute DVOA and DYAR". So I'm not sure what's happening where it's being used to calculate strength of schedule 7 games in. Come on. His system had the Bills D as the second best in the league last year, and currently has them rated as #3. That system factors in level of competition. 20 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: This is why I say it's all setting up to be a disappointing year next year if the fans expect to improve on the final record from this year, which is probably going to be something like 12-4. It's also why Beane should go all in to try to get the #1 seed this year, because then you have a legitimate chance at making the Super Bowl. The schedule this year is historically easy. the problem with this logic is that the Pats' schedule is even easier.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Come on. His system had the Bills D as the second best in the league last year, and currently has them rated as #3. That system factors in level of competition. Come on where? I linked the explanation. I'm familiar with what is publically available about how DVOA is calculated. I state my reservations quite clearly I believe. Am I supposed to be all warm and fuzzy just because they say good things about My Bills? 7 minutes ago, Bmbchiefs66 said: Dvoa is very simple.to under stand Great! Tell me how to calculate it. 1
JESSEFEFFER Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 (edited) Prior to the season start, Schatz was on WGR and was down the Bills because 1) statistically, good defense does not sustain itself itself one year to the next as well as offense and 2a) he did not see an NFL starting QB when he either saw Josh play (not likely) or 2b) looked at Josh's rookie analytics (more likely.) The latter was doubling down on the "parody of an NFL QB prospect" that came from FO prior to the draft. He did like the Bills D at that time and had some sympathy for the Bills fans, wishing us well but he did not see it in the numbers, regardless of schedule. I'd really like to know why DVOA for QBs is often so out-of-step with tQBR, as they are both products of Football Outsiders. Edited October 22, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER
H2o Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 The media and everyone else has to make excuses for why the Bills are 5-1. It can't be because McDermott and Beane are actually building the team right, can it? No it has to be the schedule or other exterior factors as to why the Bills have only lost to the Pats thus far, especially when that same media had the Jets possibly challenging the Pats for the division and making the playoffs. 1
Kelly the Dog Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Come on where? I linked the explanation. I'm familiar with what is publically available about how DVOA is calculated. I state my reservations quite clearly I believe. Am I supposed to be all warm and fuzzy just because they say good things about My Bills? One thing you cannot accuse Dave of is being a homer or leaning toward something because it is warm and fuzzy and says good things about the Bills. You should know that. 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, BananaB said: A win is a win. Let the media keep shitting on us How are they ? on us by pointing this out? The Pats have an easy schedule too. Is the media ? in them? we have a few tougher games that should give us a better idea of how we stack up. But we got lucky with a great schedule. Good for us.
ganesh Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: The only team to hold Brady and the Pats under 30.....and only one offensive TD. and that too on a short field and a mis-read by the LB
dave mcbride Posted October 22, 2019 Author Posted October 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Come on where? I linked the explanation. I'm familiar with what is publically available about how DVOA is calculated. I state my reservations quite clearly I believe. Am I supposed to be all warm and fuzzy just because they say good things about My Bills? Great! Tell me how to calculate it. With "maybe," I thought you were implicitly questioning my claim that he wasn't saying they were bad or mediocre. He clearly likes the Bills defense (just as his system hated it under Rex). I wasn't commenting on your skepticism about DVOA.
Phil The Thrill Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 3 hours ago, dave mcbride said: He didn't say they were bad. He is simply saying that they have an incredibly easy schedule. Which they do. Except he rips the Bills all of the time. This is his way of throwing more shade
RiotAct Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said: The only team to hold Brady and the Pats under 30.....and only one offensive TD. not only that... we held Brady and the offense to single-digit points.
CNYfan Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 The better a team is as compared to the competition, the relative ease of a projected schedule may be so measured. Easy. That is because the Bills are good. Nonetheless 1 week at a time. The Eagles are tough and every week is an adventure. None of this is actually easy. So BS to the entire concept
djp14150 Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said: The only team to hold Brady and the Pats under 30.....and only one offensive TD. Sssshhhhhhhhhhhhhh....
Wayne Arnold Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Prior to the season start, Schatz was on WGR and was down the Bills because 1) statistically, good defense does not sustain itself itself one year to the next as well as offense and 2a) he did not see an NFL starting QB when he either saw Josh play (not likely) or 2b) looked at Josh's rookie analytics (more likely.) The latter was doubling down on the "parody of an NFL QB prospect" that came from FO prior to the draft. He did like the Bills D at that time and had some sympathy for the Bills fans, wishing us well but he did not see it in the numbers, regardless of schedule. I'd really like to know why DVOA for QBs is often so out-of-step with tQBR, as they are both products of Football Outsiders. I can't wait for next August when Aaron Schitz tells us once again how bad the Bills are "projected" to be...this time because they had such an easy schedule in 2019.
dave mcbride Posted October 23, 2019 Author Posted October 23, 2019 12 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said: who the hell is Dave? That would be me. I am not a homer.
eball Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 16 hours ago, dave mcbride said: He didn't say they were bad. He is simply saying that they have an incredibly easy schedule. Which they do. Yep, and that's why I'm not giving up hope to win the division. Wouldn't it be incredible if that W16 game @ Foxboro actually meant winning or losing the East? 1 1
oldmanfan Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) This is why I never get all up in arms like so many do when the schedule is announced. First, it's not like yoo can change it. Second, every year some teams thought to be good implode and vice versa. How many folks around here were bemoaning the difficulty of our schedule before the season, especially the back half? Edited October 23, 2019 by oldmanfan
dave mcbride Posted October 23, 2019 Author Posted October 23, 2019 Just now, eball said: Yep, and that's why I'm not giving up hope to win the division. Wouldn't it be incredible if that W16 game @ Foxboro actually meant winning or losing the East? It would be awesome. Unfortunately, the Bills do have some tough games coming up, so I’m not all that hopeful this will happen. But who knows?
dave mcbride Posted October 23, 2019 Author Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) For those who don't like Schatz, you'll love this quote! http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2019/week-7-dvoa-ratings Combine all three phases of the game, and the Bills hold steady at No. 21 in the DVOA ratings. That's not where we normally find a 5-1 team. How bad is it? The Bills are officially the worst 5-1 team in DVOA history. I addressed Buffalo's playoff odds a couple weeks ago in the DVOA commentary, but let's talk about how they've managed to go 5-1 despite such a poor DVOA rating. First, the schedule. Only New England has played an easier schedule so far, and only New England plays an easier schedule over the course of the entire season. (Based on current ratings, the Patriots and Bills are projected to play two of the five easiest schedules we've ever tracked.) Second, for some reason opposing kickers seem totally unable to kick against the Bills this year. Bills opponents are 2-of-8 on field goals, with only one of those blocked by the Bills. They've also missed two extra points. Two of their wins, over the Jets and Titans, can be directly tied to missed kicks by the other team. I thought I would go back and look at the previous worst 5-1 teams by DVOA. They're interesting because two of them eventually made it to the Super Bowl. WORST 5-1 TEAMS BY DVOA, 1986-2019 Year Team DVOA Rk Final W-L Final DVOA Final Rk Playoffs 2019 BUF -5.4% 21 -- -- -- -- 1991 DET -2.2% 16 12-4 -1.2% 17 Won division, lost AFC CG 1998 ATL -1.9% 18 14-2 18.8% 7 Won division, lost SB 2015 ATL -1.6% 14 8-8 -16.3% 26 No 2003 CAR 0.1% 18 11-5 0.6% 16 Won division, lost SB 1987 SD 0.2% 16 5-7 (8-7) -19.7% 25 No 1996 IND 0.5% 18 9-7 -12.2% 22 Wild card, lost WC 2014 ARI 0.6% 15 11-5 -6.4% 22 Wild card, lost WC 1987 MIN 4.4% 13 8-4 (8-7) 1.3% 12 Wild card, lost NFC CG 2004 MIN 4.9% 11 8-8 -8.1% 20 Wild card, lost DIV 2011 DET 4.9% 15 10-6 10.1% 11 Wild card, lost WC 1988 NO 5.2% 12 10-6 4.1% 12 No The most interesting team here is the 1998 Atlanta Falcons. That Falcons start was in some ways similar to this Bills start. The first six 1998 Falcons opponents had an average DVOA of -17.4% after Week 7, the easiest schedule in the league that year. There was nobody as bad as this year's Dolphins, but that included the No. 26 Saints, the No. 29 Eagles, and two games against the No. 27 Panthers. The only good team the Falcons played early was San Francisco, which ranked No. 5 after seven weeks. That was also Atlanta's only loss. Those 1998 Falcons aso had a kooky game with the Panthers in Week 5 in which they were outgained on average, 6.1 yards to 4.8 yards, and yet they won 51-23. Both teams threw two interceptions but Carolina also fumbled five times, and lost four of them. Atlanta only fumbled once, and recovered their own fumble. Through six games, the Falcons were gaining 5.4 yards per play and giving up 5.6 yards per play. Then they got slaughtered by the Jets, 28-3 in Week 8. After that, they turned things on. From Week 9 until the end of the season, the Falcons gained 6.2 yards per play and gave up only 4.6 yards per play. Atlanta's total DVOA from Week 9 onwards was 37.9%. So while the Falcons' 5-1 start was similar to the 2019 Bills' 5-1 start, it's unlikely the Bills will suddenly become one of the league's best teams and go 9-1 over their final ten games. Taking advantage of an easy schedule is a general trend here. For example, the 1991 Lions ranked 24th out of 28 teams in schedule strength after six games which is kind of crazy since they started the season with a 45-0 loss to the best team in DVOA history, the 1991 Washington Redskins. But their other early opponents ranked 17, 22, 23, 25, and 28 as of Week 6. The 2015 Falcons were 24th in schedule after Week 6. They also were similar to Buffalo in that opponents had terrible luck on field goals. 2015 Falcons opponents were 6-of-11 on field goals through Week 6, with all those misses coming indoors. The 2003 Panthers were a little different. Unlike these other teams, Carolina didn't take advantage of an easy schedule. At least, they didn't in the early part of the year. Carolina ranked tenth in schedule strength after six games, but dead last in future schedule strength, which helps explain why they kept winning all year despite having a DVOA that hovered near 0.0%. Carolina's 5-1 start included four wins by less than a touchdown including two in overtime. By the end of the season, they ended up finishing 9-3 in one-score games. The 1998 Falcons are obviously a huge outlier, but most of these teams didn't get much better over the course of the season. Yet many of them made the playoffs thanks to their 5-1 starts. And the Bills might too. Edited October 23, 2019 by dave mcbride
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