Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

There was 1:38 left in the 4th quarter with the score 24-21. That was the actual game up until that point. There'd be no reason to go for an onside kick unless that was their only option. And since 90%+ of onside kicks just result with the receiving team falling on the ball, that'd be indicative of what the game through 58:28 seconds looked like. 
 

It's not like you can attribute that last TD to the offense or anything, and it's not something the Dolphins defense did wrong that resulted in the Bills proving how much better they are. An onside kick with 1:38 left in a game only means "last desperate attempt to have a shot at winning after all other options have been exhausted."

 

Tell me, how often an onside kick returned for a TD with a minute plus left in the game has been the deciding factor of any game in history. If the receiving team had fallen on it, what changes? We would've run out the clock, won the game anyway. The points are irrelevant barring the most unlikely, ridiculous possibilities like fumbling a snap while trying to kneel...which again, I haven't seen in ages.

And a kicker missing all 4 kicks, and another missing the only 2 kicks he was asked to make all game ARE important to mention. They're the kind of terrible performances that get kickers benched or fired. Missing a kick here & there is one thing. Missing everything, even the "easy" ones when your ONLY JOB is to do that very thing, IS notable. 

Those matter because they are NOT INDICATIVE of how the Bills played, rather how the opponent hurt themselves. Yes, it happens to other teams too, and that's why it gets brought up when it happens to those other teams. It matters, whether you want to buy it or not.

 

How many times have Bills fans & other analysts said "if only Norwood made that FG?" Because he didn't, the 90's Bills are remembered in a different light than they otherwise would've been. And that was only one kick, not ALL the kicks. 

do you enjoy this? making something that it is not?

 

because whether you do or not, it happened.

Edited October 23, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season.

 

This is exactly the point I object to in Wawrow's article, and just as much here.  There will always be plays in a game that are miscues - on our side, as well as on the opponent's side.

 

You can't do that unless said missed FG is the very last play of the game (they weren't).  When one play in the game is different, it's a different game.  Coaches coach differently from then on, players play with greater or lesser intensity, different plays get called.

 

As I said in the OP, as well proclaim that if it weren't for a single play miscue - a blocked punt returned for a 7 point TD, we beat the Pats.  Why not?  We lost by 6, that would be 7 points.  Do you think that would be a reasonable "take"?   I think most people wouldn't.

[wiseman3]

I quite honestly don't give a flying f about what the strength of schedule and analytics say...we're 5-1... enjoy it. It feels like people would rather be 3-3 but have the metrics say that we're a solid team. I dont get it

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is exactly the point I object to in Wawrow's article, and just as much here.  There will always be plays in a game that are miscues - on our side, as well as on the opponent's side.

 

You can't do that unless said missed FG is the very last play of the game (they weren't).  When one play in the game is different, it's a different game.  Coaches coach differently from then on, players play with greater or lesser intensity, different plays get called.

 

As I said in the OP, as well proclaim that if it weren't for a single play miscue - a blocked punt returned for a 7 point TD, we beat the Pats.  Why not?  We lost by 6, that would be 7 points.  Do you think that would be a reasonable "take"?   I think most people wouldn't.

And why are we ccompletely ignoring the kicking game? Last time I checked, kickers are part of the team. Saying we're not good because other teams have a bad kicker is crazy. Tough crap for them, thankfully our TEAM has a good kicker. 

[Rocket94]

4 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

as long as they keep racking up the W's, I couldn't care less how they do it. they have yet to be blown out and it seems they were blown out in a couple games by week seven in the past.

 

just win, baby!!

Yes...just win and hopefully everything else will fall in to place. Some expected the Bills to implode after the Patriots game...well it didn't happen!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

 

 

[Happy]

5 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

 

 

 

I agree with this and it is accurately stated.  The Patriots are getting the benefit of the doubt, the Bills are not strictly for recent history, alone.  I still think the Pats defense is a little overrated...the talk of among greatest of all time comparisons are lunacy, but I digress.

 

The bolded I take some issue with.  I'm no QB issue, but I think you can teach accuracy, which a lot of tends to be technique. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

why would you even look at it that way? would you rather they be 3-3? it boggles my mind why some want to take a W and turn in to their own negative context, which I'm sure must only satisfy themselves?

 

how we win matters, okay. you're right, after the clock hits zero, regardless of whether it was an offensive td, defensive or yes, even a special teams td, all that matters is you out scored the opponent. by one point or forty, it's a W.

 

"You are what your record says you are".  This is the classic "glass half full/glass half empty" conundrum.

 

Every football game which is not a blowout stinker hinges on a handful of plays.  After the game, we can look at that handful and say "if those rolled differently, woulda been a W" or "if those rolled differently, woulda been a loss".  Sometimes you da windshield, and sometimes you da bug.

 

It's understandable that Buffalo Bills fans who have learnt by hard experience not to get their hopes up too high from early season success, tend to look for a handful of plays that could have rolled differently and turned it into a L but @IDBillzFan has it exactly right - one can look at the same games and pull out a handful of missed opportunities that would have led to a score by the Bills. 

 

And that's even without the known principle all we sports parents teach our kids that if one play is different, the course of the game will change for better or worse.

 

Hypotheticals are fruitless except for the team analyzing film the next week, where pointing out the impact of a missed read or a "gotta catch that" pass may bear fruit.

 

It is a bit disappointing to see a high quality sports journalist like @john wawrow bringing up the "2 missed field goals from a loss" hypothetical, but to do him justice it's only one line in an article and not the focus.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

IMO  John W has always been fair in praise and criticism  

 

We are all loving the 5-1 (well most of us are) but that lingering ....  we've been here before thoughts keep creeping in 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

Allen seems to be consistently making passes this year that he consistently missed on last year or just didn't take last year.  So I don't know.  It may depend upon a bunch of factors - how much previous coaching has a guy had?  How "set" in his muscle memory is his wrong habit?  And how hard/consistently does he work at it?   In a game, there are defensive factors like was there a deflection, even a small one?  Could the QB follow through cleanly, or was there defender contact?   [Assessing these is influenced by pre-conception - there is an Allen throws early in the Patriots game where, for example, the Cover1 guys said it was a bad throw and tagged Allen's footwork.  But Allen completes throws in later weeks with similar imperfect footwork, and when I look at that play carefully I'm pretty sure the defender got a leetle piece of it.  And that Wentz to Agolor throw people are critiquing Agolor for not hauling in, I'm pretty sure went long because Wentz had defender contact]

 

Then there's the fact that a lot of factors go into a pass completion beyond the accuracy of the throw (meaning, does the ball go where the QB intends it to?).  Are the WR and QB on the same page about the coverage and the route the WR is supposed to run?  Was the timing "on" - was the QB rushed or feeling pressure and did he throw too soon?  Was the QB uncertain about his read of the D and did he hesitate?

 

Most people who repeat something do improve, so timing and reads are known to improve as a QB matures, as does getting on the same page about coverage and routes after the skill players get more time in the same system.

[Wayne Arnold]

18 hours ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

 

Why? They’re the defending Super Bowl champions and are undefeated.

[ColoradoBills]

The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 and that makes me happy.

For all those that want to analyze how and why they are at that record I say go for it.

 

Personally for me I don't care.  Those games are over and the team seems dynamic enough that

the players and coaching staff could take this team to a point that by the end of the season it could be

quite different from the one that started the season.

 

I didn't make a prediction of their record to start the season and I don't know what their record will be to end the season.

I'm enjoying the ride and looking forward to the Eagles coming to town and the guys giving a good effort.

 

I'm sure many think my quaint take on all of this is foolish or might believe I know less about football than others

with more vociferous opinions and that's fine with me.  I am enjoying these last couple of seasons more than I have in years.

Here's to another win on Sunday!

 

ps.  It's funny how the same discussions are being made about the 8-1-1 Buffalo Sabres.  I'm happy with them too.

[IDBillzFan]

14 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

 

They ARE all created equal because they are all based on false premises to make a point that could never, ever be proven because the event has passed and the results are the only results to come of the situation. Yes, one may be created to sound more far-fetched than the other, but again, they both start as false premises, which are essentially the false starts of logical discussion.

 

I don't mind fans saying things like "Man, if Yeldon only caught that pass..."

 

What I object to is "The team is not as good/as bad as it seems because if this happened/didn't happen, then the result would be different enough for me to justify my opinion."

 

That logic is a long, deep, never-ending hole.

[Rocket94]

13 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 and that makes me happy.

For all those that want to analyze how and why they are at that record I say go for it.

 

Personally for me I don't care.  Those games are over and the team seems dynamic enough that

the players and coaching staff could take this team to a point that by the end of the season it could be

quite different from the one that started the season.

 

I didn't make a prediction of their record to start the season and I don't know what their record will be to end the season.

I'm enjoying the ride and looking forward to the Eagles coming to town and the guys giving a good effort.

 

I'm sure many think my quaint take on all of this is foolish or might believe I know less about football than others

with more vociferous opinions and that's fine with me.  I am enjoying these last couple of seasons more than I have in years.

Here's to another win on Sunday!

 

ps.  It's funny how the same discussions are being made about the 8-1-1 Buffalo Sabres.  I'm happy with them too.

Yes!...good stuff. I too just want to enjoy the ride without being analytical of the Bills, but sometimes (ok, the entire season so far) they leave me no choice because they are difficult to diagnose as a team. That feeling is returning where I expect them to win every week despite whatever mess they get in to. Just go Bills...we understand you guys are growing and finding out a lot about yourselves!

Edited October 24, 2019 by Rocket94

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Yes!...good stuff. I too just want to enjoy the ride without being analytical of the Bills, but sometimes (ok, the entire season so far) they leave me no choice because they are a difficult to diagnose as a team. That feeling is returning where I expect them to win every week despite whatever mess they get in to. Just go Bills...we understand you guys are growing and finding out a lot about yourselves!

 

Reading the bolded made me laugh Rocket!

 

When the ball is kicked off the 2 teams are in a fight.  Statistics and analysis takes a back seat while the guys play the game.

I'm really trying to appreciate that fact.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"You are what your record says you are".  This is the classic "glass half full/glass half empty" conundrum.

 

Every football game which is not a blowout stinker hinges on a handful of plays.  After the game, we can look at that handful and say "if those rolled differently, woulda been a W" or "if those rolled differently, woulda been a loss".  Sometimes you da windshield, and sometimes you da bug.

 

It's understandable that Buffalo Bills fans who have learnt by hard experience not to get their hopes up too high from early season success, tend to look for a handful of plays that could have rolled differently and turned it into a L but @IDBillzFan has it exactly right - one can look at the same games and pull out a handful of missed opportunities that would have led to a score by the Bills. 

 

And that's even without the known principle all we sports parents teach our kids that if one play is different, the course of the game will change for better or worse.

 

Hypotheticals are fruitless except for the team analyzing film the next week, where pointing out the impact of a missed read or a "gotta catch that" pass may bear fruit.

 

It is a bit disappointing to see a high quality sports journalist like @john wawrow bringing up the "2 missed field goals from a loss" hypothetical, but to do him justice it's only one line in an article and not the focus.

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

[teef]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

sure.  it happens.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, teef said:

sure.  it happens.  

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

[teef]

Just now, FireChans said:

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

oh no.  the bills are a team learning how to win, and that's ok.  the pats have been doing what the pats have been doing for so long, it's all second nature to them.  it's ok for the bills not to be world beaters at this point.  if anything they're exceeding expectations so far.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

 

What part of the qualifier "every football game that is not a blowout" did you miss?  Or are you assuming "good" teams put up 100% blowouts?

 

 

 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What part of the qualifier "every football game that is not a blowout" did you miss?  Or are you assuming "good" teams put up 100% blowouts?

 

 

 

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.