Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[vorpma]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I have never been a fan of the whole "what if" concept. (1) As you say, if one play changes, then the complexion of the game changes, at least for that moment, and maybe more. (2) Where doe s it end? You could literally find plays throughout every game that could affect the outcome. One could say the Bills were lucky that the Jets kicker missed an extra point and a field goal. One could also say the Jets were very fortunate to even be in that game in the first half when Buffalo was moving the ball up and down the field, only to keep turning it over. 

My man!

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

Great post!

[BananaB]

Part of the reason why 4 of 6 teams have 2 or less wins is because the Bills beat them. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

I get your larger point, but given that the Patriots*** have been proving for nearly two decades that they are, indeed, really that good, it’s a far sillier question when asked of them. JW would lose some credibility as a serious journalist by asking it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

This is a great point.  Not just about Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Miami in general.

Most Bills fans are disappointed this week, because the team failed to "blow-out" the lowly Dolphins.

 

What they fail to notice, is that Miami was fired-up and actually played VERY well on Sunday.  Especially their offense.

Playing like he did this week, Fitzpatrick would have lit-up most defenses around the league.  He was getting rid of the ball extremely quick, squeezing the ball into tight windows, and his receivers were making contested catches.

 

If Miami played like this every week, they would NOT be sitting at 0-6.

As it stands, we took their absolute best shot - and still won by double-digits.

 

Right on.  I watched some footage of prev. MIA games and from what I saw, the Dolphins didn't have a WR who could catch a cold until the 4Q of the Washington game when they came within 1 play of a comeback win.  Well Hey y'all Watch This!

 

That's the Fitzmagic Dust aspect and the reason a guy with a noodle for an arm and a repetitive habit of throwing the INT at the worst time has stuck in the league 15 years.  When he's "On" he's one of those guys who can really lift and inspire his teammates and Yeah, he can Ball.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nobody knows how good this team really is.  I think they consistently play to the level of their competition.  I don't know if that can be improved with experience, coaching, consistently winning, or a bad loss.  They played the Patriots tougher than any other team and if Allen isn't hurt, he either tosses two more ugly picks or wins the game in the 4th quarter(hell maybe he does both).  

They have 4 games that will decide how good they truly are - Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, and Ravens.  Win three of those four and you know this team is legit.  Lose three or more and you know the 5-1start was mostly a mirage and due to bad teams.  

The Patriots game could decide the division and will likely be flexed regardless.  They play too tight and amped up against the Patriots and I just don't see this team being able to compete against Belichick in December with the division on the line.  But wining the division at Foxborough would be the same as the sacking of Rome.  History of the NFL would change at that moment.  

[RaoulDuke79]

I dont recall anyone cutting us any slack when we played tough schedules,  so I'm sure as heck not going to apologize or fret over having a soft schedule. You are what your record says you are. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by RaoulDuke79

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected. 

 

Every team has film study every week on their opponents, and the effects are just incremental most of the time.  We get film study on them.  I don't think there was any Magic Genius about Week 7 film study over Week 5.

 

The more specific issues are that Flores and his OC and DC all were Pats coaches and overlapped with Daboll.  They know how he thinks.  In particular, their OC was the Pats WR coach and probably spent a good bit of time drawing plays up and discussing plays with Daboll.  So they really had the inside line on how the Bills offense is constructed and what they are trying to do.  It's not just looking at pictures of the exteriors of the buildings; they understand the structural engineering.  Second issue, Josh Allen had a very hard time reading the coverages the Pats were using on D and we failed (for whatever reason) to pick up some blitz looks both Week 4 and Week 5.  Flores is more than able to duplicate those defensive looks because again, they are structurally related to the D concepts he's trying to use.  He not only understands the structural engineering, he's got some of the beams in place.

 

But now that it's on film that not just the Pats did it, but Miami also, we better fix it damn quick because like the saying goes, once you put something on film your opponents will exploit it until you show that you have and stop them, or exploit what they do in turn.

 

 

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

 

This is saying that the Bills coaching staff needs to get better at scouting including self-scouting.  

[Mat68]

Strange time as a Bill's fan.  Colin Cowherd is more optimistic about the Bill's, the coaching staff, and Allen, than a pretty loud group of Bill's fans. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

 

Since he's covering the Bills and the Patriots are defending SB champions with a decade of every-year playoffs....that would be wierd.

 

29 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

That article is red meat for the negatives.

 

I don't know what "the negatives" means, but criticism and a negative viewpoint are allowed especially with some data or reasoning behind them.

When they rise to the level of campaign or crusade or are just mindless "he sucks!" babbling, then No.

[17years&waiting]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

 

This is probably the biggest piece of this season: how does Allen evolve as the league evolves towards his tendencies.  Look at the Brady and Peyton's of the league: when defenses threw new wrinkles to slow them down, they evolved; they improved.  They kept doing this until there was nothing they hadn't seen before and couldn't quickly figure out on the field.  Same goes for Brees and Rodgers and all the other great QB's of the past 10-15 years.

 

On the other side, look at the Goff's and Trubisky's of the league.  Innovative coaches got them playing well, but now, defenses are adjusting and taking away what they know how to do.  I'm not sure they are adjusting for the next, better phase of their respective careers.

 

Over the past month, the scheme seems to be throwing a ton of blitzers at Allen (I don't watch the All 22's or anything like that, so I could be wrong).  It seemed like there were multiple instances where there were jailbreak blitzes, or the defense would send someone off the corner or edge that either Allen or Morse didn't know and adjust for.  And it seemed like Allen really struggled with those plays.  However, there was one play in the Dolphins game that stood out: it was in the 2nd half, maybe a 3rd and 7, and the Dolphins blitzed.  Earlier in the game, it forced bad plays or throw aways.  However, on this play, Allen stood tall and quickly hit Beasley, who got the first down.  It was 1 play.  It wasn't anything spectacular, but Allen didn't bail from the pocket, didn't make a bad read.  He stood in the pocket, found his hot route and picked up the first down.  It shows progress for Allen.  I hope I'm not making too much of 1 play,  but it was the best play I thought he made all day.  

 

Now keep doing it.

[BigDingus]

This article is spot-on. It touches on everything any non-biased observer would be concerned about, and it's all entirely justified.

This isn't "hating" on the Bills, nor is it unfounded pessimism. We could just as easily be 1-5 as 5-1 or even 6-0. 

If these struggles and close wins came against even mid-tier quality opponents, I think people would feel far more confident in this team. But at similar points in the year, I was more confident in the 2011 Bills than I have been with this team.

 

In 2011, we started off 5-2 with wins against the 7-9 Chiefs, 8-8 Raiders, 13-3 Patriots, 8-8 Eagles, and 5-11 Redskins, and only losing by 3 to the 9-7 Bengals (in Cincy) and losing by only 3 to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants (again on the road). 

Not the most insane schedule, but definitely a true test, and all games we were competitive in. And the ways in which we beat lesser teams like the Chiefs (winning 41 to 7) and the Redskins (23 to 0 where we had 9 sacks) made you look ahead & think the sky is the limit.

But just remember how bad the Dolphins have been this year...letting opponents put up 440 yards on average, 36 points on average and only putting up an average of 8.4 points a game themselves. And look how we performed...at home....after a BYE! And if not for that onside kick TD, the score would be 24-21 which reflects how the game actually played out a lot more accurately.

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

[IDBillzFan]

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, 17years&waiting said:

Over the past month, the scheme seems to be throwing a ton of blitzers at Allen (I don't watch the All 22's or anything like that, so I could be wrong).  It seemed like there were multiple instances where there were jailbreak blitzes, or the defense would send someone off the corner or edge that either Allen or Morse didn't know and adjust for.  And it seemed like Allen really struggled with those plays. 

 

This has been going on all year, and it's really frustrating to see that either the coaching staff or Allen himself haven't figured out how to deal with this.

He should be able to recognize the incoming pressure when literally everyone is in the box, everyone right over the line ready to all out blitz, and make proper adjustments at the line. At the very least, he should know he doesn't have 3+ seconds to throw the ball, and realize "if they're all coming at me, there will be nobody covering these guys over here." 

For some reason though, he always snaps the ball and drops back like he's going to have all the time in the world, doesn't get rid of the ball, and takes the sack. It'll continue to happen every game until he can show teams that he can identify the open man quickly or at least throw the ball away.

[njbuff]

3 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

 

Everything always needs to be micro-analyzed for some reason.

 

The Bills are 5-1 and are being disrespected by most, as evidenced by being a SLIGHT favorite at home against a severely flawed sub .500 team.

 

This would bother me as a player in that Buffalo locker room and I hope they use this as motivation to post their first waxing of an opponent this season.

[IDBillzFan]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

And if not for that onside kick TD, the score would be 24-21 which reflects how the game actually played out a lot more accurately.

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

1 minute ago, njbuff said:

 

Everything always needs to be micro-analyzed for some reason.

 

There's nothing wrong with micro-analyzing among fans to discuss what could have been or should have been. I get that. How often do you think Oiler fans talk about what "should have been called" during the comeback game?

 

But using those hypotheticals to support your position on the quality of the team?  "The team isn't as good as you think because these things that usually happen didn't happen" is just lazy.

 

But I'm a homer. So my take carries not water.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

why would you even look at it that way? would you rather they be 3-3? it boggles my mind why some want to take a W and turn in to their own negative context, which I'm sure must only satisfy themselves?

 

how we win matters, okay. you're right, after the clock hits zero, regardless of whether it was an offensive td, defensive or yes, even a special teams td, all that matters is you out scored the opponent. by one point or forty, it's a W.

 

3-3

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

 

Exactly

[BigDingus]

1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

 

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

There was 1:38 left in the 4th quarter with the score 24-21. That was the actual game up until that point. There'd be no reason to go for an onside kick unless that was their only option. And since 90%+ of onside kicks just result with the receiving team falling on the ball, that'd be indicative of what the game through 58:28 seconds looked like. 
 

It's not like you can attribute that last TD to the offense or anything, and it's not something the Dolphins defense did wrong that resulted in the Bills proving how much better they are. An onside kick with 1:38 left in a game only means "last desperate attempt to have a shot at winning after all other options have been exhausted."

 

Tell me, how often an onside kick returned for a TD with a minute plus left in the game has been the deciding factor of any game in history. If the receiving team had fallen on it, what changes? We would've run out the clock, won the game anyway. The points are irrelevant barring the most unlikely, ridiculous possibilities like fumbling a snap while trying to kneel...which again, I haven't seen in ages.

And a kicker missing all 4 kicks, and another missing the only 2 kicks he was asked to make all game ARE important to mention. They're the kind of terrible performances that get kickers benched or fired. Missing a kick here & there is one thing. Missing everything, even the "easy" ones when your ONLY JOB is to do that very thing, IS notable. 

Those matter because they are NOT INDICATIVE of how the Bills played, rather how the opponent hurt themselves. Yes, it happens to other teams too, and that's why it gets brought up when it happens to those other teams. It matters, whether you want to buy it or not.

 

How many times have Bills fans & other analysts said "if only Norwood made that FG?" Because he didn't, the 90's Bills are remembered in a different light than they otherwise would've been. And that was only one kick, not ALL the kicks. 

[Saxum]

21 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

 

You are saying if the Bills tripped over their Big Dingus then they would be 3-3. 

 

In that case just Linda Bobbitt and cut the rotten thing off!