Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

"The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

(NYup.com no paywall)

 

"What’s difficult to judge is how good these 5-1 Bills really are based on their considerably soft opening schedule — four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins. Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21. "

 

The whole "4 of 6 teams have 2 or fewer wins" thing is a point.  It's always the case early in the season when the actual quality of the teams doesn't measure up to their projected strength when scheduling, which is why every year some teams get out to a fast start and fade, while others start slow and claw their way back in it.  But there's also the point that we're the only team that has held the NE Patriots to <30 points, and we were within a TD reception of tieing or beating them, despite spotting them 3 TO most of the game.  The Titans are 3-4, but that's only 1 game off from the lead in their conference.  So we have gone toe-to-toe against a couple of legit teams and held our own, which adds a legit note of promise, just as the "4 of 6 opponents suck" adds a note of reserve.
 

"Then there’s how inconsistent they were in requiring a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless Miami Dolphins 31-21.

It was a game Sunday in which Buffalo's defense allowed a season-high 21 points to an opponent that had been outscored 180-42 over its first five games. And Buffalo's offense gained a season-low 305 yards against a defense allowing a league-worst average 440 yards, and missing its top lineman after Christian Wilkins was ejected on the second play from scrimmage."

This sort of reads as though it's a mystery.  Later on in the article he does acknowledges one of the reasons the D likely struggled: "Stock Down: Third-string linebacker Maurice Alexander, who struggled playing in place of injured starter Matt Milano and primary backup Corey Thompson. Miami finished with a season-best 109 yards rushing after managing just 291 in its first five games." 

If your starter and primary backup at a key position are both out and that's being successfully exploited, is "inconsistancy" truly the correct word?  Most teams struggle when they're down to the #3 guy on depth.  What's clear to me is that something needs to be done if Milano may be out for a couple weeks healing that hamstring or if Thompson is not close to back from whatever surgical procedure he had at the end of Sept.

 

The other point is that Wawrow, as much as anyone, well knows the bi-polar nature of Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He's like Longfellow's "little girl" (" When she was good, She was very good indeed, But when she was bad she was horrid.).  We happened to get Fitzmagic, the "Very Good", lift-his-teammates version of Fitztragic.  Now it is on our D that we couldn't shut their run game down and put the pressure on that can switch him, but it's a known phenomenon.

 

Wawrow does acknowledge "On the bright side, Buffalo has shown resilience in overcoming its mistakes and taking advantage of those made by their opponents." - very true. 

I do feel it's just a teeensy bit disingenuous of Wawrow to note in his blurb on the "slow starting offense" that "Against Miami, Buffalo ......was blanked in the third quarter for the fourth time this season."  That's true, but the Bills in fact scored on their only offensive possession of the 3Q, that drive just extended into the 4Q - and that lengthy, grind-it-down drive by our O was probably just what the defense needed. 

I also strongly dislike the whole "Buffalo can chalk up 2 wins on missed kicks" idea.  As my kid learned in middle school, if one thing in a game changes then it's a different game all around.  Buffalo can hang up our one loss to NE to a blocked punt, right?  I mean, we lost by 6, and that cost us 7 amirite?  Anyone buy that logic?  Didn't think so.  We lost that one, we won the other two, period.

 

Anyway, overall a well written and reasonably balanced take on the criticism a bunch of folks here have been raising in a less- nuanced way.

 

 

 

Geuss that’s why there is a whole season and then playoffs. It should all be sorted out by then. 

[billykay]

34 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think the penalties, not having Milano out there on defense, and the key drops were the difference between 35/42 - 10 and what we got which was 31-21. 

Don't hear much about drops, especially Knox's drop in the Miami game. That would have been either a TD or at least a 1st & goal.

[BuffaninSarasota]

29 minutes ago, K-9 said:

While I think Wawrow has a point, we are also 5-1 without having played a complete game so far. This is a young team coming off a 6-10 season last year that is still maturing. They have nothing to apologize for in beating anyone on their schedule to this point. 
 

And regarding needing a comeback to beat Miami, that’s disrespectful to Miami more than it is to us. Flores and some on his staff are intimately familiar with our team having been part of game planning against us while in NE***. Anyone who thought we could just show up and beat Miami, wasn’t dealing in reality. 

 

this is an oft-quoted fallacy.....we are not that young of a team. We happen to have a young QB and MLB.

[CaptnCoke11]

Gotta play the teams on your schedule.  They beat the teams they should have.  It will get tougher so we’ll see how good they are shortly 

[boater]

Mostly new WR, 5 new OL, All new TE, All new RB. It's OK to say they still aren't there, and be a true fan.

 

I don't expect full offensive gel until mid-season. 5-1 right now? Thank you God.

[Troll Toll]

Bills are winning the games this year that it felt like they should have won last year. Playing Wentz intrigues me. So far we haven’t faced many very good quarterbacks. Eagles are a good test despite their record.

[K-9]

12 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

this is an oft-quoted fallacy.....we are not that young of a team. We happen to have a young QB and MLB.

You are thinking chronologically, which isn’t the only way to evaluate it. How long has this team and administration been together? That’s what makes it a young team. Especially with a second year QB still learning how to play the position. 

[BuffaninSarasota]

6 minutes ago, K-9 said:

You are thinking chronologically, which isn’t the only way to evaluate it. How long has this team and administration been together? That’s what makes it a young team. Especially with a second year QB still learning how to play the position. 

 

By chronologically do you mean average age?

 

I already made the caveat about #17

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The other point is that Wawrow, as much as anyone, well knows the bi-polar nature of Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He's like Longfellow's "little girl" (" When she was good, She was very good indeed, But when she was bad she was horrid.).  We happened to get Fitzmagic, the "Very Good", lift-his-teammates version of Fitztragic.  Now it is on our D that we couldn't shut their run game down and put the pressure on that can switch him, but it's a known phenomenon.

 

 

This is a great point.  Not just about Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Miami in general.

Most Bills fans are disappointed this week, because the team failed to "blow-out" the lowly Dolphins.

 

What they fail to notice, is that Miami was fired-up and actually played VERY well on Sunday.  Especially their offense.

Playing like he did this week, Fitzpatrick would have lit-up most defenses around the league.  He was getting rid of the ball extremely quick, squeezing the ball into tight windows, and his receivers were making contested catches.

 

If Miami played like this every week, they would NOT be sitting at 0-6.

As it stands, we took their absolute best shot - and still won by double-digits.

 

 

[nucci]

51 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I think the honest answer to the question Wawrow poses is we still dont really know...

 

I hope the Eagles bring their A game this week so we can find out one way or the other...

I hope the Eagles play like crap 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

By chronologically do you mean average age?

 

I already made the caveat about #17

Yes, average age, which is what everybody tends to point to. IIRC, we are the 7th oldest team by average age. 
 

My mention of the QB position was meant to underscore your initial mention as it’s the most critical position and it’s manned by a very inexperienced player currently. You can have the oldest, most experienced players at every other position, but a second year QB without a lot of experience at the position and even less formal training as a QB entering the league, really weighs heavily, imo.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

I am concerned about how good we are and need to see a complete game, a 300 yard passing effort, a long completion, a screen pass, some slants, some people jump through a table and Haushka kick a fifty yarder before my lack of concern will go away....

as long as they keep racking up the W's, I couldn't care less how they do it. they have yet to be blown out and it seems they were blown out in a couple games by week seven in the past.

 

just win, baby!!

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I also strongly dislike the whole "Buffalo can chalk up 2 wins on missed kicks" idea.  As my kid learned in middle school, if one thing in a game changes then it's a different game all around.  Buffalo can hang up our one loss to NE to a blocked punt, right?  I mean, we lost by 6, and that cost us 7 amirite?  Anyone buy that logic?  Didn't think so.  We lost that one, we won the other two, period.

I have never been a fan of the whole "what if" concept. (1) As you say, if one play changes, then the complexion of the game changes, at least for that moment, and maybe more. (2) Where doe s it end? You could literally find plays throughout every game that could affect the outcome. One could say the Bills were lucky that the Jets kicker missed an extra point and a field goal. One could also say the Jets were very fortunate to even be in that game in the first half when Buffalo was moving the ball up and down the field, only to keep turning it over. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The way the entire league is 

 

this schedule excuse can be applied to the Pats and 49ers as well 

 

just saying 

[Shaw66]

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

"The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

(NYup.com no paywall)

 

 four of their first six opponents currently have two or fewer wins. 

 

That's the nature of the NFL this season. 12 teams have two or fewer wins. 6 more have three wins.  Some of those three win teams have four losses.  18 teams in the NFL are .500 or worse.  That's more than half the NFL.  Only three divisions have two teams that have 5+ wins in them.  We are in one of them. Two division don't have a 5+ win team at all.

 

So, you could probably say that most teams have played a lot of "bad" teams.

 

Saying that, it IS tough to gauge this team.  They are up and down.  I would say we are not a contender yet but the barometer is pointing up.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Scott7975

[Solomon Grundy]

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

This is a team on the rise and one that I believe will be good for awhile. They are not there yet, although I do think they are definitely capable of getting into the playoffs and competing.

 

If most people on this board are honest with themselves, they probably believed this year would be about taking that next step from last year - meaning the defense would be as good or better, a big improvement on the offensive side of the ball, and competing for a wildcard berth. I think those things are being achieved and I am happy with the direction things are headed. 

 

They still need some pieces on both sides of the ball and more experience (especially QB) to take them to that next level of being considered legitimate contenders to go deep into the playoffs. However, I see them taking that next step next year and being at that level for awhile.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

This is a team on the rise and one that I believe will be good for awhile. They are not there yet, although I do think they are definitely capable of getting into the playoffs and competing.

 

If most people on this board are honest with themselves, they probably believed this year would be about taking that next step from last year - meaning the defense would be as good or better, a big improvement on the offensive side of the ball, and competing for a wildcard berth. I think those things are being achieved and I am happy with the direction things are headed. 

 

They still need some pieces on both sides of the ball and more experience (especially QB) to take them to that next level of being considered legitimate contenders to go deep into the playoffs. However, I see them taking that next step next year and being at that level for awhile.

Exactly.  

 

The biggest wildcard is Allen.  If Allen starts playing some seriously good football, beginning this week, then this season could be special.   But if what we get is nice, steady growth out of him, we're going to see inconsistent offense and the Bills will stumble occasionally.  Not the end of the world if that happens.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

That article is red meat for the negatives.