Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[K-9]

33 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

 

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

 

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.

Are you suggesting we aren’t as good as the Patriots***? That is some razor sharp insight.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.

 

It may be your point, but it's a non sequitor to the point raised in this thread. 

 

If you want to make a post asserting that there's something else wrong with the games the Bills have won, beyond the missed FG made in Wawrow's article and my counter point, you go right ahead but don't hang it on me.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

 

Are you suggesting we aren’t as good as the Patriots***? That is some razor sharp insight.

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Reading the bolded made me laugh Rocket!

 

When the ball is kicked off the 2 teams are in a fight.  Statistics and analysis takes a back seat while the guys play the game.

I'm really trying to appreciate that fact.

Yes! Just get out there and play the game and let it rip! Everything else should take care of itself. Yeah ha! These roughians get themselves in to trouble, but they fight their way out of it!

[K-9]

Just now, FireChans said:

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

Perhaps you need to re-evaluate what Wawrow is getting at. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY is surprised that the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats***.  

[FireChans]

Just now, K-9 said:

Perhaps you need to re-evaluate what Wawrow is getting at. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY is surprised that the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats***.  

I read it. The title is literally, “The Bills are 5-1 but are they really that good?” and some people took issue with the “you can’t say we were a kick away from losing.” I think you can, even though it definitely still counts as a win.

 

When did I say we should be surprised the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats? Man you and Hapless are fired up today, is everything okay?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, FireChans said:

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

 

Orton,

 

Who is questioning Wawrow's journalistic integrity and how in your viewpoint?

 

I don't think that's happening here at all.  I think Wawrow is too logical and level-headed to mistake reasoned disagreement with the philosophy behind one sentence in his article for "questioning his journalistic integrity" - what a Load of Mularky!

I don't think his article is about comparing the Bills and Patriots, either.  The more reasonable comparison implied by his article would be to other 5 win teams such as the Ravens and Chiefs or to 4 win teams such as the Colts, Texans and Cowboys.

 

 

[eball]

I'm tired of reading opinions that question whether the Bills are good or not based upon their opponents' records.  I've been watching football for the better part of 40 years and what I see is a team that, for the most part, doesn't beat itself with dumb mistakes and finds a way to play best when it matters most (i.e., the 4th quarter).

 

What makes bad teams bad?  They lose to good teams.

[Chandler#81]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Orton,

 

Who is questioning Wawrow's journalistic integrity and how in your viewpoint?

 

I don't think that's happening here at all.  I think Wawrow is too logical and level-headed to mistake reasoned disagreement with the philosophy behind one sentence in his article for "questioning his journalistic integrity" - what a Load of Mularky!

I don't think his article is about comparing the Bills and Patriots, either.  The more reasonable comparison implied by his article would be to other 5 win teams such as the Ravens and Chiefs or to 4 win teams such as the Colts, Texans and Cowboys.

 

 

? Who’s Orton?

if you’re inferring @FireChans is a reincarnated, previously banned poster, #KickHizAzzToTheCurb!

its not like he brings anything quality to the board.

[K-9]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I read it. The title is literally, “The Bills are 5-1 but are they really that good?” and some people took issue with the “you can’t say we were a kick away from losing.” I think you can, even though it definitely still counts as a win.

 

When did I say we should be surprised the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats? Man you and Hapless are fired up today, is everything okay?

You kept saying that because the Bills didn’t blow teams out like the Pats*** did, then they weren’t that good. So, other than directly saying that, that’s exactly what you said. 
 

Nobody is as good as the Patriots*** presently, everybody knows that, so it was kind of absurd to think that fact needed to be pointed out. Yet, you felt compelled to enlighten us all to that simple fact. Like I said, razor sharp insight on your part. 

[Ramza86]

We play at the level of our competition and get into these close games.

 

Ultimately the greatness of this team is up to Allen. If he can get it going, hit those long balls and be more consistent each drive we could probably beat every team left on our schedule outright.

[colin]

19 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with micro-analyzing among fans to discuss what could have been or should have been. I get that. How often do you think Oiler fans talk about what "should have been called" during the comeback game?

 

But using those hypotheticals to support your position on the quality of the team?  "The team isn't as good as you think because these things that usually happen didn't happen" is just lazy.

 

But I'm a homer. So my take carries not water.

 

 

what is really interesting for these kind of takes is that the reviewer is quick to discredit things that did happen but were generally unexpected or unlikely (pick at the 2 yard line, circus catch of an onside kick for a TD), but generally don't credit otherwise likely things that didn't happen (knox drop for a 4 point swing, houghes not bringing fitz down for a sack where he scored, another 4 point swing).

 

this is why handicappers generally look at stats like Yards per play, yards per pass attempt (both on D and O) and broader team stats like that to gauge how good a team is.

 

it's also why people rate O and D based on yards over points, because points are heavily affected by special teams, and where you start with the ball.

[oldmanfan]

My high school golf coach always talked about “If I’da’s”.  If I’d a done this or that.  And that it meant squat.  Same with football.  Bills are 5-1.   They could be 6-0 or 0-6 if they’d a done this or that.  But they didn’t.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, colin said:

what is really interesting for these kind of takes is that the reviewer is quick to discredit things that did happen but were generally unexpected or unlikely (pick at the 2 yard line, circus catch of an onside kick for a TD), but generally don't credit otherwise likely things that didn't happen (knox drop for a 4 point swing, houghes not bringing fitz down for a sack where he scored, another 4 point swing).

 

this is why handicappers generally look at stats like Yards per play, yards per pass attempt (both on D and O) and broader team stats like that to gauge how good a team is.

 

it's also why people rate O and D based on yards over points, because points are heavily affected by special teams, and where you start with the ball.

 

Good point - and reinforces the take that looking at hypotheticals quickly becomes a mess

 

As far as the "people rate O and D based on yards over points"...I'm not sure it's true, but even if true it doesn't exactly make sense to me. I mean, yards are heavily affected by special teams too, right?  For example, last year the Bills had a great D on yards -- but it was pointed out that our ST spotted the opponent's offense great field position so consistently that statistic was skewed.

[stuvian]

the Patriots game showed that we belong at the big kids table. Still we haven't been dominant in any of our wins. The defense carries us in the first half until the offense shows up in the second half. The offense looks better with each passing week. By season's end I expect our offense will notch a few wins of its own. What's different is that this team seems to know how to close out a hard fought win psychologically and emotionally. We haven't seen that since the glory years or at least Wade and Flutie. 

 

Notice how Allen's INTs have dropped off. Daboll is managing his growth very intelligently. The deep ball will come back once the short game is mastered.  

 

McDermott is building a winner. It's tangible. You can tell it's a culture of earning it, not waiting for a few stars to bail us out. This bodes well for our rivalry with the Pats who rely on culture over talent

[colin]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point - and reinforces the take that looking at hypotheticals quickly becomes a mess

 

As far as the "people rate O and D based on yards over points"...I'm not sure it's true, but even if true it doesn't exactly make sense to me. I mean, yards are heavily affected by special teams too, right?  For example, last year the Bills had a great D on yards -- but it was pointed out that our ST spotted the opponent's offense great field position so consistently that statistic was skewed.

 

total yards, and yards per play will give you a good idea.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

apologies if already posted    Another article from John 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-cb-tredavious-white-keeps-coming-big-saves-003330362--nfl.html

 

Bills CB Tre'Davious White keeps coming up with big saves

(Are people that gullible? or is he being a kill joy?) 

 

RCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) --

Cornerback Tre'Davious White occasionally enjoys parading around the Buffalo Bills facility in goaltending gear while claiming to have been the best hockey player in his native Louisiana history.

It's all fiction, including The Tre'Davious White Goalie Academy, where he supposedly taught Buffalo Sabres starter Carter Hutton all he knows.

White, in fact, was unfamiliar with hockey until last year, when he became a big fan of Hutton while attending his first NHL game.

 

All joking aside, White was immediately captivated by Hutton because he can appreciate how a goalie's role is no different than his.

''Ultimately, I don't want to be embarrassed out there. So, when you're the last line of defense, and somebody catches the ball on you, that's all everybody's going to talk about, right?'' White said. ''Just like a touchdown or when somebody scores a goal, you want to try to defend the goal, and the team is depending on you to try to save the day.''

[jimmy10]

All I ask for is 100% mistake-free football, winning out the season and then a super bowl victory.

 

That’s all.
 

Then, and only then, will I be on the fence about the long-term viability of Josh, McBermott and Deane. 

[BringBackFlutie]

18 hours ago, teef said:

oh no.  the bills are a team learning how to win, and that's ok.  the pats have been doing what the pats have been doing for so long, it's all second nature to them.  it's ok for the bills not to be world beaters at this point.  if anything they're exceeding expectations so far.

 

I agree, buuuut what's odd to me is that I read somewhere recently that we were 5-2 at one point during our playoff year with McD. ...so is this the same learning to win we did 2 years ago?  Of course, if we beat the Eagles, 6-1 is different than 5-2.  And, although we're not playing great teams, we're giving up far less points and not living off of turnovers on D.  But it's still strange to me that we're so close to that same position.

 

Anyway, I have no idea what the point of the article was.  There doesn't seem to be a conclusion.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

I agree, buuuut what's odd to me is that I read somewhere recently that we were 5-2 at one point during our playoff year with McD. ...so is this the same learning to win we did 2 years ago?  Of course, if we beat the Eagles, 6-1 is different than 5-2.  And, although we're not playing great teams, we're giving up far less points and not living off of turnovers on D.  But it's still strange to me that we're so close to that same position.

 

Anyway, I have no idea what the point of the article was.  There doesn't seem to be a conclusion.

i think it's different in the sense that the team this year is the one mcd and beane envisioned as opposed to "inherited".  we knew last year was going to be a wash, so i hope what success we may see going forward isn't a one and done type situation.  we hope to be confident that the bills can go to the playoffs every year for the next decade.  this could be the first step.

 

we all know the bills are going to lose more games this season.  there will be meltdowns after it happens, but clawing and scratching away for each win ok for now.