538's Current Projections (Bills finish at 11-5)

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

51 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Doesn't matter. Check out their schedule. I am not saying they will suddenly work as a team and reach their potential, but if they do, they might be a serious threat if they beat us. Even if they lose to Pats now, they still might win out the rest and finish 11-5, or 10-6 with tiebreaker over us.

 

I don't think we need to care since I do believe we will end up 11-5 or better, but I wouldn't write them off yet.

 

The Browns are a joke!  Their crowning was WAY to early, nay it wasn't even deserved. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???   

 

 

Me, I had 10 in July

 

[eball]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year.

 

The defense is absolutely SB caliber, and for that reason they are a legitimate contender.  The offense has shown it is competent when they don't turn the ball over or commit needless penalties.  Once you get to the playoffs if you have a defense that will keep you "in it" you have a chance.

 

I've said all along that I believed this year's Bills would get into the playoffs and perhaps even win a game, but next season is where it really all comes together with some added piece(s) on offense.  That said, if the offense continues to progress and is playing well in December/January look out.

[iinii]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???   

 

I was right there with you and am still on track with predictions. ??

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

11-5 should definitely be enough to make the playoffs.  Even 10-6 this year should get it done.  The AFC is filled with crap teams...Chargers find new and interesting ways to lose each week just like they have for the past 3 years running now, Colts and Texans are slugging it out for the division and the other will likely be the wild card team, and there is really nobody else on the radar for the other wildcard spot than the Bills, who will likely be the 1st wildcard with the NFL's easiest schedule in their back pocket.

We would be Super Bowl contenders if we had an offense that could play 4 quarters....

[dave mcbride]

37 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

No, they didn't -- I'd let it go, but I'm sick of this particular lazy analysis. They gave her a 71% chance of winning, said that she would win by 2-3 pts nationwide (which she did), and Nate Silver wrote an essay the day before the election noting there was not enough good polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania to be confident in her winning. So, he was right twice, yet caught flak from both sides.  It's also simply a well-written and entertaining site that deserves better than this tired insult. 

 

Absolutely correct. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

[Jobot]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year. A playoff team, yes, due in part to the easiest schedule in the NFL. A super bowl team? No. At least not at this stage of the season. If they peak at the right time tho, anything can happen...

 

From watching weeks 1-7, they are not a super bowl caliber team.  Can this team improve to change that narrative by week 17?  It's very possible based on the pieces and ceiling of many of the players.  That's why we keep watching.

Edited October 21, 2019 by Jobot

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, thurst44 said:

 

I'd hope not, because that would mean they likely went 4-6 or 5-5 against a very favorable schedule.

We're talking about the Browns...

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

She did get 3MM more votes.

And lost by 10 million if you didn’t count California and NYC. (Not the state just the city!) lol 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, PatsFanNH said:

And lost by 10 million if you didn’t count California and NYC. (Not the state just the city!) lol 

 

So if you just ignore where you lose, that makes you a winner?

[Augie]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Call me crazy, but I just plain think the Colts are better than the Bills.  I know if they when the division what's the point, but I am just bringing it up because I don't think it will be a slug fest between Houston and Indy...Indy is just going to outright win it, unless something happens.

 

As far as just team by team, Indy compared to the Bills, they are better coached and have a better QB.  Not saying our guys aren't good, but right now I think Indy is up there with Baltimore as competing for the second best team in the conference, with a wait and see as far as when Mahomes comes back for KC.  

 

We are the 5th seed right now, and honestly, I think that is fairly accurate with the way this team is situated in the Conference.

 

I have not watched them this year (but for a few plays), but I think I read the Colts have won 13 of their last 16 games. That sounds a very good football team. 

10 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

So if you just ignore where you lose, that makes you a winner?

 

That’s the current plan for the Dolphins! 

[CSBill]

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Call me crazy, but I just plain think the Colts are better than the Bills.  I know if they when the division what's the point, but I am just bringing it up because I don't think it will be a slug fest between Houston and Indy...Indy is just going to outright win it, unless something happens.

 

As far as just team by team, Indy compared to the Bills, they are better coached and have a better QB.  Not saying our guys aren't good, but right now I think Indy is up there with Baltimore as competing for the second best team in the conference, with a wait and see as far as when Mahomes comes back for KC.  

 

We are the 5th seed right now, and honestly, I think that is fairly accurate with the way this team is situated in the Conference.

 

We are duplicating the season of the Jacksonville Jaguars two years ago, ride your D as long as you can. If the offense contributes, its a bonus.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

33 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

And lost by 10 million if you didn’t count California and NYC. (Not the state just the city!) lol 

 

The Pats lost to the Bills this year if you didn't count points off blocked punts. I mean, punters aren't real parts of the game am I right?

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Understood that some people roll their eyes at 538, but I always enjoy looking at them as another data point. They currently project the Bills' chances to win each upcoming game as follows:

 

Vs. Eagles: 58%

Vs. Washington: 81%

@ Cleveland: 51%

@ Miami: 70%

Vs. Denver: 72%

@ Dallas: 36%

Vs. Baltimore: 49%

@ Pittsburgh: 52%

@ New England: 21%

Vs. Jets: 68%

 

Technically that gives us a 12-4 record if every game goes according to projections but I'm guessing they end up at 11 for their projections due to how many of those games are viewed as roughly 50-50.

 

That all adds up to a 78% of making the playoffs at the moment, the 4th highest chances in the AFC behind only New England, Kansas City, and Baltimore. In terms of winning the Super Bowl though, they have Buffalo with the 6th best chances in the AFC and 13th best odds in the league.

 

If I did the math right, 538's odds give us 10.58 wins.  They rounded up to 11.

 

 

[FireChans]

Iggles looked very beatable last night. I’m hoping we can pull out the W.

[PatsFanNH]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

So if you just ignore where you lose, that makes you a winner?

When you win 30 states out of 50 yes..

3 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

 

The Pats lost to the Bills this year if you didn't count points off blocked punts. I mean, punters aren't real parts of the game am I right?

Wow, people making a mountain out of a mole hill! Fact is 30 states out of 50 voted against her.. that’s 60% and in 48 out of 50 states she lost by more than double what her “popular” vote. Which means popular vote means NYC and Cali choose for the rest of us.   I didn’t vote for either (went third party) but she lost and rightfully so.

[Bray Wyatt]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

So if you just ignore where you lose, that makes you a winner?

 

Isnt that what you are doing by ignoring the electoral votes? You know where the score is actually kept?

[GreggTX]

If we added probowlers at OT, WR, Edge Rusher and CB, I think we's have something special. This assumes continued improvement by Allen. I'm also taking into account the vast improvement at DT with both Phillips' playing lights out in 2019. Real shame about Harry. He was ready to take over the starting job too. And what the @#%$ are they feeding Jordan? I need some of that.

[Chill]

7 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

She did get 3MM more votes.

Thankful for the electoral college...

Edited October 21, 2019 by Chill

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

When you win 30 states out of 50 yes..

Wow, people making a mountain out of a mole hill! Fact is 30 states out of 50 voted against her.. that’s 60% and in 48 out of 50 states she lost by more than double what her “popular” vote. Which means popular vote means NYC and Cali choose for the rest of us.   I didn’t vote for either (went third party) but she lost and rightfully so.

Texas and Florida are more populated than NY and that alone defeats your argument. More than twice as many people live in NYC now than lived in the US during the first census. The system was designed for a much smaller country and it hasn't scaled well. 

 

Regardless, op showed the proof that they were the most accurate site when predicting the election. They even pointed out polling problems that were huge in what happened. I think they probably give too much credit to NE though. We will see after Houston.