QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

[DCOrange]

52 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you consider being rated #14 (Mayfield) out of 35 QB's to be a "bad" rating? 

 

In most lists like this the top 5 - 10 would be considered Excellent;  the middle 15 - 20 would be considered average and the bottom 5 - 10 would be considered "poor".  So depending on how they group their list Mayfield is NOT considered bad and neither would Mariota and perhaps even Winston.

 

52 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The problem with PFF and analytics in general is the over reliance on numerical ratings to try to judge the effectiveness of a QB.  The game of football, unlike baseball, does not lend itself to these types of evaluations.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh sorry, I could have sworn it said Winston, Mariota, and Fitzpatrick before for some reason lol.

 

Anywho, you're right, they clearly don't think Baker has been bad. It's debatable whether or he actually has been bad. I think PFF would argue that a lot of his INTs were due to his WRs rather than himself and I know he's fared very well in categories such as big time throws that PFF values a lot.

 

The other two they clearly think have been bad; they're only a handful of spots ahead of Allen.

 

Edit: And PFF isn't basing their grades on numbers per se; at least not in the way that people seem to think where the grades are based off of stats. On the contrary, they're watching and grading each play and then those things basically feed into some of the other metrics that they're able to provide after the fact.

Edited October 18, 2019 by DCOrange

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

What a couple of tools.  Seriously, you can hear the bias dripping off their tongues.

 

Did they even watch the game?  "Allen is completing passes but he's still not accurate Bills fans"?  What the hell does that even mean?  Are these two morons saying that in all those short pass completions the receivers were having to make circus catches? 

 

They seem concerned that Allen isn't making "Big Plays" but who on that offense are the "Big Play" guys?  Maybe Foster & Singleterry who were both out.  And did these two numbskulls even realize that the Bills were without THREE startling offensive lineman? 

 

I know I should just ignore these guys but it's hard to ignore STUPID when it's in your face. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It means cut the crap with the dumb INTs.  Then they will shut their yapper... to be frank.  

 

It actually refreshing to have a qb that seems like he plays better than the stats. 

 

Its been the other way for ages. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Kangaxx]

40 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Many Bills fans just aren't very realistic about Josh Allen. What were you expecting? He turned the ball over 4 times in just 1 half (1 less than Peterman vs Chargers). He threw 3 picks vs the Pats and has been consistently missing on the deep ball by a mile. 5 fumbles and 7 picks in just 5 games too! Yet somehow he's a superstar? He's improved a bit in some areas and could eventually be very good, but he has a really long way to go and there are no guarantees that he will get any better than he is now.

Who called him a superstar? Haven't seen anyone ever say that ever on this board or anywhere else for that matter. Strawman hater logic.

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Simple.  Some don’t think Allen will make it.  They focused on completion percentage as his negative.  Since he’s brought that up, they have to invent something new to criticize. Now it’s the lack of 300 yard games.  When he does that they’ll Invent something else.

So it’s almost as if there is a conspiracy against him!  
where would you rank Allen?  Top 15? 
 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The biggest thing to realize is that my system is a comparative system. So it won't churn out a number for a single player. It compares a QBs efficiency of production against their peers (this makes qualification criteria vitally important for adequate results). The score is out of 100. 90 of that 100 is based on production, which equates to yards per touch, total td%, and turnover% in my opinion. Within those 3 stats, I give the most credit for TD%, then yards, and finally turnovers. This breaks everything down to a per attempt basis, which allows for fair comparisons between QBs regardless of total attempts. The final 10 is a weight based on the QBs attempts per game, which is my way of capturing how much the QB is asked to do for their team. This way, a QB that is asked to do more will always get the nod over a comparable QB who does less.

 

The system can be volatile early in the year, but tends to hit a groove around the midpoint of a season. I'll be doing a couple in depth posts once week 9 is in the books with some observations and commentary.

 

Thanks for weighing in! 

 

So I knew you considered sacks.  The yards per touch rolls in sacks?

Significant difference seems to be that, and also in considering TD by any means (rush or pass), yards by any means (rush or pass), and TO by any means (INT or fumble)?

[nedboy7]

I’d love to see the rankings from people who think total QBR or PFF is bogus.   Btw not declaring Allen top 15 isn’t saying he will fail or I don’t like him as a QB. I do agree I don’t understand how mayfield is rated so high. His QBR is 39.7 

Edited October 18, 2019 by nedboy7

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Thanks for weighing in! 

 

So I knew you considered sacks.  The yards per touch rolls in sacks?

Significant difference seems to be that, and also in considering TD by any means (rush or pass), yards by any means (rush or pass), and TO by any means (INT or fumble)?

Yep, sacks count as an attempt, or rather a touch, and the yards are subtracted out from the total. Turnovers are INTs and Fumbles Lost.

Edited October 18, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

I’d love to see the rankings from people who think total QBR or PFF is bogus.   Btw not declaring Allen top 15 isn’t saying he will fail or I don’t like him as a QB. 

 

Well, Hokie put his for the rookies above.  If you ask him nicely, he'd probably give you the rest, though as he commented, it's volatile until about Week 9 so that's when he plans to roll it out here.  I don't rank QB per se, but Hokie's system addresses many of the issues I have with the total QBR and the passer rating.  It includes negative contributions from sacks and fumbles, and credits positive contributions from rush yards and rush TDs. It also normalizes for touches,  so a QB who doesn't get many opportunities due to poor defense gets fair credit for what he does.

 

I have 4 criteria for deciding whether a QB passes well enough to do the job for you:  completion %, YPA, TD/INT ratio and >= 220 ypg.  So far this year (but not last year), Allen is hitting 3 of them.  The area where he needs to improve (whether or not rush TDs are included) is TD/INT ratio, where he's currently <1

44 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea my thoughts exactly.

A lot of holes in his game as a passer atm. Just need to hope to continue to see improvement. 

 

"Your thoughts exactly" when a guy tosses out straw man tidbits like "Yet somehow he's a superstar?" and "He's improved a bit in some areas"?

 

Well that speaks volumes.

[wiley16350]

12 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I’d love to see the rankings from people who think total QBR or PFF is bogus.   Btw not declaring Allen top 15 isn’t saying he will fail or I don’t like him as a QB. I do agree I don’t understand how mayfield is rated so high. His QBR is 39.7 

From the games I have done of Allen

His week 1 performance (Jets) ranked 20th of all week 1 games

His week 2 performance (Ginats) would rank 2nd when compared to week 1 games

His week 3 performance (Bengals) would rank 21st, right after his week 1 game

I haven't done his Patriots game but it could be as low as 32

I would expect the Titans game to be at least in the middle of the pack if not higher.

 

I think it would all add up to middle of the pack, depending on how bad he was against the Patriots.  I think he is clearly better than the 31st best QB, even if I can't be sure how many guys he is better than.

[Socal-805]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

Many Bills fans just aren't very realistic about Josh Allen. What were you expecting? He turned the ball over 4 times in just 1 half (1 less than Peterman vs Chargers). He threw 3 picks vs the Pats and has been consistently missing on the deep ball by a mile. 5 fumbles and 7 picks in just 5 games too! Yet somehow he's a superstar? He's improved a bit in some areas and could eventually be very good, but he has a really long way to go and there are no guarantees that he will get any better than he is now.

 

 

Yes.  Thank you.

 

As you have noticed, there are posters here who just take anything they don't like about ANY of the past QBs to come through Buffalo, and actlike they have been insulted 

personally.  It's usually the same group of people that do this IMO, but it's just the way it is.  

 

Josh Allen has a sub 1 TD  :  INT ratio - ANY QB that throws more INTS than TDS is getting benched and let go sooner or later.  

 

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[section122]

This is an interesting topic for me.  I enjoy stats and numbers.  Here are some things about this season you might not know:

 

Josh Allen is currently 23rd in completion %.  That is better than Jared Goff, Matt Stafford, Carson Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Cam Newton among others.

Josh is 24th in TD% above Kyler Murray, Goff, Mayfield, and Newton among others

Josh is 29th in int% above Winston and Mayfield among others.

Josh is tied for 22nd in YPA above Wentz, Newton, and Trubisky among others (first time he has not been better than Mayfield)

Josh is 30th for AY/A tied with Mayfield

Josh is 23rd in YPG ahead of David Carr, Mariota, and Trubisky among others (2nd time he has not been better than Mayfield)

Josh is 29th in  QB Rating ahead of Newton and Mayfield among others

Josh is 29th in ANY/A ahead of Mayfield and Trubisky among others

 

So by the raw stats Josh is averaging a rank of 26.25.  Having him at the bottom of QB ranks shouldn't be surprising right now.  Count me in the camp that thinks a lot of these numbers will skyrocket as he has some easy defenses coming up.  Having him ranked at 30th right now really isn't that far fetched even if I don't agree with it.

 

What I can't believe is their ranking of Mayfield.  He is ahead of Josh in 2 of these stats only.  I could see having him in the early to mid 20s but to say he is top 15 right now is ludicrous.

 

At the end of the day though this is all fluff.  PFF grades don't matter.  If the Bills win the super bowl with Josh playing the part of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer I won't be any less happy.  I hope to see continued growth from Josh.  He has improved the accuracy now his biggest issue is decision making.  Tenn was a very encouraging game in that aspect however I  think he over corrected a bit.  They have to reign in Josh but not neuter him if that makes any sense.

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

Is this really that controversial of a take? Geezus. 

Luckily, he should be able to feast on some sushi this Sunday. 

350 yards and 3 TDs should push him up a few slots!

[prissythecat]

Is there an "eye test" ranking?     The corpse of Joe Flacco would be on the bottom of that list

[BuffaloHokie13]

51 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I’d love to see the rankings from people who think total QBR or PFF is bogus.   Btw not declaring Allen top 15 isn’t saying he will fail or I don’t like him as a QB. I do agree I don’t understand how mayfield is rated so high. His QBR is 39.7 

It was a couple weeks ago, but here's my Q1 rankings. I hate total QBR lol. I'll be putting together more detailed and contextual posts after week 9 too. At quick glance, Lamar, Mayfield, and Flacco dropped over the past 2 weeks, while Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater rose.

 

[billsfan89]

PFF was actually saying how they might have to eat crow on Josh Allen before the Pats game. I think that Pats game probably graded him out much lower than he should be. I don't think Josh has been a top 10 QB this season but I think he is in the top 20 or so. Certainly not in the bottom 5. Each game he has been accurate and moving the ball well. The turnovers are a blemish for sure but not something that invalidates how much better his overall play has been. 

[MDH]

I haven’t read this entire thread but it strikes me as humorous that many posters think that PFF “has an axe to grind” yet believe Bills’ fans in general the best place to get some levity on the subject. Fans on this board greatly overstate how far along Allen is right now.

 

Im guessing its because they just have to believe he’s “the guy” after suffering for so long without a legit QB. Allen has shown more than I thought he would early in his career and I hope that he develops into the franchise guy we all hope he can be BUT he’s nowhere near that yet. Nowhere near it. He’s on a pretty good trajectory but he is, right now, a bottom half of the league starting QB.  Maybe bottom 10. 

 

Thankfully he’s not a finished product and he’s shown a propensity to be able to learn from his mistakes. I agree that the accuracy issue is overblown by the draftniks however, his decision making - both in how quickly he recognizes a D and his decisions on where to throw it - is bad right now. But that can be learned with experience.

 

All of you who disagree vehemently with the PFF grade, if Allen, right now, was a finished product would you be happy with the draft pick? Personally, Id call him a bust. So when I see people criticizing his play it doesn't upset me, they're mostly right. He’s not good.

 

Now, if they said he has no chance of ever developing, then Id take umbrage. He’s improving and not nearly a finished QB and thats good enough for me right now.

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why do you "know" it's blasphemy on this board?  I think the majority here acknowledge that Allen shows promise in that he seems to have taken steps in his 2nd season, but there are some aspects of his game that are simply not acceptable and he needs to improve.  The turnovers are Exhibit A (for Allen).  Going for the Big Shot instead of moving the chains is Exhibit B.

 

Now he thinks he can fix 'the INT thing, but I remember to the day Ryan Fitzpatrick giving an end-of-season interview in 2011 where he answered a question about his trajectory as QB, acknowledging the 23 INTs he threw that year and said something to the effect of "that's something I believe I can fix, and I will".  He did throw fewer the following year, but not enough fewer - 16 - and the team moved on. 

 

There is more hope for Allen to fix it, after all he is in the midst of his 2nd season and has started 16 games, whereas at that point Fitzpatrick was finishing his 7th season and had close to 40 games.  A bunch of eventually good or great QB threw too many picks in their first seasons and improved. 

 

But until Allen does demonstrate consistently that he's improved, it's right to be unconvinced.

 

I don't get the vibe here at all that Allen is fair game to criticize. We have 8 pages here shooting down a site that ranks Allen in the mid-20's.  Saying anything less than JA is the definitive heir apparent to NFL QB greatness seems to get you shouted down around here.  Here we are having a conversation about how stupid ANOTHER ranking is that has JA listed in the mid-20's...

I am less worried about Allen's actual interceptions, and learning to take the underneath stuff, as I am about his ability to see the field. I don't think he is just choosing to play with balls and force throws down field. I don't think he sees the field/defense well. I also think he has pretty bad touch on the ball. A good tracker is YAC by QB where if a QB not only throws a catchable ball, but finds the open man, and delivers it in a place to make a play. The Bills are currently at 29th (about 10% of that total is the shovel pass against TEN). NFL.com also has Allen listed at 26th on their QBI. 

 

http://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=23

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It was a couple weeks ago, but here's my Q1 rankings. I hate total QBR lol. I'll be putting together more detailed and contextual posts after week 9 too. At quick glance, Lamar, Mayfield, and Flacco dropped over the past 2 weeks, while Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater rose.

 

So....like...most ranking have Allen floating around the 20's? 

[wiley16350]

13 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I don't get the vibe here at all that Allen is fair game to criticize. We have 8 pages here shooting down a site that ranks Allen in the mid-20's.  Saying anything less than JA is the definitive heir apparent to NFL QB greatness seems to get you shouted down around here.  Here we are having a conversation about how stupid ANOTHER ranking is that has JA listed in the mid-20's...

I am less worried about Allen's actual interceptions, and learning to take the underneath stuff, as I am about his ability to see the field. I don't think he is just choosing to play with balls and force throws down field. I don't think he sees the field/defense well. I also think he has pretty bad touch on the ball. A good tracker is YAC by QB where if a QB not only throws a catchable ball, but finds the open man, and delivers it in a place to make a play. The Bills are currently at 29th (about 10% of that total is the shovel pass against TEN). NFL.com also has Allen listed at 26th on their QBI. 

 

http://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=23

 

So....like...most ranking have Allen floating around the 20's? 

The PFF ranking is 31st, so I don't get where you think it is mid 20's.  QBR has him 28th, so again I don't see how you get mid 20's?  I think you're wrong about his ability to see the field.  Most of his interceptions aren't really poor reads.  In the Jets game he had 1 that he forced into coverage.  1 was caused by the receiver.  1 was caused at the line of scrimmage.  The last one was because he threw the ball late while on the move and it gave the defender time to make a play on the ball.  Against the Bengals he had 1 because he was playing hero ball and the other potential one was actually a great play by the defender who wasn't really in coverage but got back in time to make a play on a deep ball.  Maybe the defense purposefully set Allen up but it looked like a great play by a defender covering someone else.  I can't comment on the Patriots game since I haven't really watched it that closely.  From the quick watch of it, he seemed to be forcing the ball into coverage trying to make a play.  I think that Josh tries to do too much at times when the offense is struggling and that is why I think he is fixable.  I don't think his interceptions comes from not being able to read the coverage, I think he throws the ball knowing full well that the defense could make a play on the ball but he tries to fit it in there anyway.  When a guy struggles with reads the pass is getting picked off by safeties and linebackers in zones.  3 of Allen's int's may count that way but my argument is that only 1 of those probably surprised him that a defender was making a play on the ball and that was the dropped one against the Bengals.  The other 2 were forced thinking he could fit the ball in there.

 

YAC is mostly a receiver, scheme and opponent stat.  There are instances where a great throw into tight coverage will produce YAC but it doesn't really happen that often, especially on short throws as people imagine.  Most of the time YAC comes on wide open throws or where the receiver breaks tackles.  Certain types of routes are also better at producing YAC than others are (Flats, Drags, Screens).  There are also times where the QB has to throw to a spot where YAC isn't possible because the receiver is well covered.  Allen had some of that against the Titans.  So for the most part, the YAC that is yearned isn't really because of the QB.  There are times where a QB reduces the opportunity for YAC because he takes the receiver to the ground and in that way they can effect YAC.  Allen has had a few of those but it's not really that often.  I have Allen with 6 instances (2 per game) in the 3 games I've done where he completed a pass and kept the receiver from getting YAC because of where he threw the ball.  I have Brady with 4 instances (2 per game) in the 2 games I've done of him where he kept the receiver from getting YAC.  I have the Patriots with 214 yards (107 per game) of YAC in those 2 games and the Bills with 257 yards (85 per game) of YAC in the 3 games.  So even though both QB's reduced YAC potential twice, the Patriots averaged 22 yards more of YAC per game.  Is that because of tackle breaking, scheme, opponents or QB?  I think it's safe to say that it really wasn't because of the QB's.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It was a couple weeks ago, but here's my Q1 rankings. I hate total QBR lol. I'll be putting together more detailed and contextual posts after week 9 too. At quick glance, Lamar, Mayfield, and Flacco dropped over the past 2 weeks, while Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater rose.

 

 

This was prior to the Titans game, correct?

 

Because I didn't "get it" initially it's sorted by BH's QB Rating at the far right column

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

I don't get the vibe here at all that Allen is fair game to criticize. We have 8 pages here shooting down a site that ranks Allen in the mid-20's.  Saying anything less than JA is the definitive heir apparent to NFL QB greatness seems to get you shouted down around here. 

 

And I don't see how you "get this".  I read probably as much of this board as anyone, especially TSW, and I see criticism of Allen all over the place.

Unmeasured criticism or negativity like "he sucks" "he'll never be good" tends to get a bad reaction, true, but a lot of people, in almost every relevant thread, criticize various aspects of his game and say they need to improve.  Like his turnovers.  Because they do, and Allen says so too.

 

Where is this site that has Allen in the mid-20's?  The OP post, PFF rankings, has him at 31.  Sorry don't buy it.

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

I don't get the vibe here at all that Allen is fair game to criticize. We have 8 pages here shooting down a site that ranks Allen in the mid-20's. 

 

It was 8 pages responding to the PFF folks who go well out of their way to throw shade on Allen.

 

...and they have him 31st out of 35.

 

They also flamed him in a podcast that dripped bias and sarcasm and invited the Bills mafia to respond...likely knowing they would get rise out of us.

 

So we were responding.

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Saying anything less than JA is the definitive heir apparent to NFL QB greatness seems to get you shouted down around here.  Here we are having a conversation about how stupid ANOTHER ranking is that has JA listed in the mid-20's...

 

 

Not sure about the "vibe" thing. Most posters I have read seem to take the long view that Allen has things to work on and is by no means there yet.

 

What I take exception to is the hubris of those who spout absolutes, like "he will never be this or that" because Allen was a known project coming into the league and I don't think anyone knows yet where his ceiling is.

 

There are plenty of posters here I respect that have legit concerns and doubts and it's all good.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

I am less worried about Allen's actual interceptions, and learning to take the underneath stuff, as I am about his ability to see the field. I don't think he is just choosing to play with balls and force throws down field. I don't think he sees the field/defense well. I also think he has pretty bad touch on the ball. A good tracker is YAC by QB where if a QB not only throws a catchable ball, but finds the open man, and delivers it in a place to make a play. The Bills are currently at 29th (about 10% of that total is the shovel pass against TEN). NFL.com also has Allen listed at 26th on their QBI. 

 

http://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=23

 

So....like...most ranking have Allen floating around the 20's? 

 

20s would be probably where I personally would put his progress to date, but that was not the PFF assessment we were discussing.

 

Interesting to note that there was a recent Cover1 film breakdown that did an objective analysis of Allen's Titan game, the bad - throwing into the crowded middle of the field where an all-pro safety was hanging out, and the good Allen going through his entire progression of reads and hitting his fourth receiving option.

 

So I would agree with your criticism, but rather than say he lacks the ability to read the field which is an absolute, I would say he is learning to read the field better, but he has a ways to go yet.