QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Allen is an acceptable QB- thus far.

 

And the Bills have a sked full of stiffs, where he doesn’t have to be excellent. In fact, the Bills can easily go to the Playoffs that way. Of course, that’s when there’s no longer ANY stiffs to play and your QB abilities are critical for success.

 

He needs to work on his deficiencies- Deep Balls and generic accuracy being critical.

How about ONE freaking 300 yard game? Let’s see improvement to compliment this Monstah D!

 

I'm genuinely curious.  What is the source of this perennial fixation on 300 yard games and deep balls? 

 

You are not alone in it, but you can take the leadership role and explain.

 

Passing yardage is NOT correlated to wins in the NFL.  300+ yd games if anything have a slight negative correlation meaning they're loosely correlated to losing (but it's very weak).  That is likely because teams trying to come from behind sling it, while teams that are winning rush.

 

The WCO spread across the league because it correctly recognized that a successful deep pass is a relatively low-probability play while short, high-percentage passes that spread the D across the field and allow YAC can both succeed in scoring and control the game by keeping the ball away from the opponent.

[BuffaloHokie13]

?‍♂️ I disagree with everything after Russ Wilson lol.

 

As far as Allen and the sophomores, I've got them at:

7. Lamar Jackson 

13. Sam Darnold (sample size is much smaller than the others)

25. Josh Allen 

31. Baker Mayfield 

32. Josh Rosen 

[SF Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

JA has a lot of room for improvement, but this list just shows you how meaningless a lot of these statistics are. Winston and Mariota 6 & 7 ... one is benched and one may be soon. These are the same people who dropped the Bills one spot from 19 to 20th (behind the Titans) in their Power rankings.  Really almost comical... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings.

 

 

WTF- Bills beat Tennessee in TN  and are behind them in this ranking? This is just silly

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

?‍♂️ I disagree with everything after Russ Wilson lol.

 

As far as Allen and the sophomores, I've got them at:

7. Lamar Jackson 

13. Sam Darnold (sample size is much smaller than the others)

25. Josh Allen 

31. Baker Mayfield 

32. Josh Rosen 

 

Hokie, can you say a few words about your QB rating system, what it includes, how you weight and why?  I know a little bit about it but I think it has elements that are very worth discussing.

 

3 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said:

WTF- Bills beat Tennessee in TN  and are behind them in this ranking? This is just silly

 

Yes, that's the point many of us make.  It's not that we go all indignant at any criticism of JA (well, probably some of us do just as some roll in the opposite direction).

 

It's that this PFF stuff often makes no rational sense when compared to 1) actual game results 2) what we see

[Mr. WEO]

18 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What's their grades based on win/loss record? 

 

Obviously not.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Obviously not.

 

Punctuation and grammar matter.  I think the Wiz intended to say "What would their grades be, if they based them on W-L record?"

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

I was talking about Darnold specifically. Not the Jets organization. 

you had a hard on for robby Anderson yesterday..... him and his 49 yds per game over his career.

 

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm genuinely curious.  What is the source of this perennial fixation on 300 yard games and deep balls? 

 

You are not alone in it, but you can take the leadership role and explain.

 

Passing yardage is NOT correlated to wins in the NFL.  300+ yd games if anything have a slight negative correlation meaning they're loosely correlated to losing (but it's very weak).  That is likely because teams trying to come from behind sling it, while teams that are winning rush.

 

The WCO spread across the league because it correctly recognized that a successful deep pass is a relatively low-probability play while short, high-percentage passes that spread the D across the field and allow YAC can both succeed in scoring and control the game by keeping the ball away from the opponent.

Simple.  Some don’t think Allen will make it.  They focused on completion percentage as his negative.  Since he’s brought that up, they have to invent something new to criticize. Now it’s the lack of 300 yard games.  When he does that they’ll Invent something else.

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Punctuation and grammar matter.  I think the Wiz intended to say "What would their grades be, if they based them on W-L record?"

 

Maybe. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Hokie, can you say a few words about your QB rating system, what it includes, how you weight and why?

The biggest thing to realize is that my system is a comparative system. So it won't churn out a number for a single player. It compares a QBs efficiency of production against their peers (this makes qualification criteria vitally important for adequate results). The score is out of 100. 90 of that 100 is based on production, which equates to yards per touch, total td%, and turnover% in my opinion. Within those 3 stats, I give the most credit for TD%, then yards, and finally turnovers. This breaks everything down to a per attempt basis, which allows for fair comparisons between QBs regardless of total attempts. The final 10 is a weight based on the QBs attempts per game, which is my way of capturing how much the QB is asked to do for their team. This way, a QB that is asked to do more will always get the nod over a comparable QB who does less.

 

The system can be volatile early in the year, but tends to hit a groove around the midpoint of a season. I'll be doing a couple in depth posts once week 9 is in the books with some observations and commentary.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The biggest thing to realize is that my system is a comparative system. So it won't churn out a number for a single player. It compares a QBs efficiency of production against their peers (this makes qualification criteria vitally important for adequate results). The score is out of 100. 90 of that 100 is based on production, which equates to yards per touch, total td%, and turnover% in my opinion. Within those 3 stats, I give the most credit for TD%, then yards, and finally turnovers. This breaks everything down to a per attempt basis, which allows for fair comparisons between QBs regardless of total attempts. The final 10 is a weight based on the QBs attempts per game, which is my way of capturing how much the QB is asked to do for their team. This way, a QB that is asked to do more will always get the nod over a comparable QB who does less.

 

The system can be volatile early in the year, but tends to hit a groove around the midpoint of a season. I'll be doing a couple in depth posts once week 9 is in the books with some observations and commentary.

 

I have always thought it is as good as many of the comparative systems that we see out there from the mainstream.

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Just to be clear, you realize that PFF says those three are bad as well, right?

 

So you consider being rated #14 (Mayfield) out of 35 QB's to be a "bad" rating? 

 

In most lists like this the top 5 - 10 would be considered Excellent;  the middle 15 - 20 would be considered average and the bottom 5 - 10 would be considered "poor".  So depending on how they group their list Mayfield is NOT considered bad and neither would Mariota and perhaps even Winston.

 

The problem with PFF and analytics in general is the over reliance on numerical ratings to try to judge the effectiveness of a QB.  The game of football, unlike baseball, does not lend itself to these types of evaluations.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[Billsatlastin2018]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm genuinely curious.  What is the source of this perennial fixation on 300 yard games and deep balls? 

 

You are not alone in it, but you can take the leadership role and explain.

 

Passing yardage is NOT correlated to wins in the NFL.  300+ yd games if anything have a slight negative correlation meaning they're loosely correlated to losing (but it's very weak).  That is likely because teams trying to come from behind sling it, while teams that are winning rush.

 

The WCO spread across the league because it correctly recognized that a successful deep pass is a relatively low-probability play while short, high-percentage passes that spread the D across the field and allow YAC can both succeed in scoring and control the game by keeping the ball away from the opponent.

Normally, what it means is that you have a varied, unpredictable Offense, with the ability to throw passes ALL over the field with accuracy, mixed with a running game. Without looking it up, I doubt has there ever been ONE QB make the SB, let alone win it- ever, who hasn’t thrown for 300 yards. Again, normally a successful QB does not have 20 completions for 15 yards. It is a mix.

 

That’s why it’s important for Allen to do so. He doesn’t have to be Rodgers or Brady great, dropping balls over shoulders from 40 yards. But damn, he needs to hit 2 a game.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

So when Oliver is rated high we believe them but when Allen is rated low we trash them....

Follow the stats you believe - TD/INT ratio, YPA, win/loss, 3rd down defense and make your own judgments

[Socal-805]

 

 

AS LONG AS JOSH ALLEN continues to have a negative TD to INT ratio, he is going to be ranked extremely low in ANY QB rating metric.  

 

What's the issue here?  Seriously.

 

 

[Capco]

18 hours ago, BillsFanForReal said:

I'm pretty sure it's just their general rankings. Here's their thoughts on the Tennessee game.

 

 

The fact that he acknowledges that Josh Allen is clutch, then immediately discounts it in the same breath, speaks volumes.  

 

Being clutch is one of the most coveted assets of any position in any sport.  Period.  

[r00tabaga]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

So when Oliver is rated high we believe them but when Allen is rated low we trash them....

Follow the stats you believe - TD/INT ratio, YPA, win/loss, 3rd down defense and make your own judgments

I don't listen to anything those guys say they are laughable. They are not verified or credible.

[wiley16350]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

So when Oliver is rated high we believe them but when Allen is rated low we trash them....

Follow the stats you believe - TD/INT ratio, YPA, win/loss, 3rd down defense and make your own judgments

It is possible for their system to be better suited to gauge certain positions than other ones.  I don't think the system is good enough for QB's or Receivers.  The closer to the line of scrimmage, the better I think it is.  I don't think it's good enough for QB's because the weight they put on simpler plays is not enough because there are QB's that play poorly even when the team around them play well and their assumption is that all QB's will make the simple play.  There are many times where a QB completely misses an open receiver on 3rd down with an easy throw.  That play isn't weighed the same as an interception but it is in fact is the same play and has the same result unless the int gives the opponent good field position or a score.  QB's that do complete those passes more regularly keep their offenses on track and tend to have longer drives that lead to points, even if it is only a field goal.  Tom Brady makes a living with simple plays and he is the most consistent at doing it, making him what most consider to be the greatest QB of all-time.  I don't think the system is good enough for receivers because plays that don't involve the receiver being targeted hold no value.  That can be a problem when the receiver plays with a QB that doesn't target him.  Robert Woods has become a much better receiver with the Rams than he was with the Bills and that isn't because Woods actually became a better receiver.  It is because he is targeted more, making him more productive and giving him more opportunities to show off his skills.  At the line of scrimmage it is different because they have a job that is graded on every play so there is a better representation of how good they are.

[GreggTX]

Many Bills fans just aren't very realistic about Josh Allen. What were you expecting? He turned the ball over 4 times in just 1 half (1 less than Peterman vs Chargers). He threw 3 picks vs the Pats and has been consistently missing on the deep ball by a mile. 5 fumbles and 7 picks in just 5 games too! Yet somehow he's a superstar? He's improved a bit in some areas and could eventually be very good, but he has a really long way to go and there are no guarantees that he will get any better than he is now.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

No way Patrick Mahomes is #10.