Mango Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 3 hours ago, section122 said: This is an interesting topic for me. I enjoy stats and numbers. Here are some things about this season you might not know: Josh Allen is currently 23rd in completion %. That is better than Jared Goff, Matt Stafford, Carson Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Cam Newton among others. Josh is 24th in TD% above Kyler Murray, Goff, Mayfield, and Newton among others Josh is 29th in int% above Winston and Mayfield among others. Josh is tied for 22nd in YPA above Wentz, Newton, and Trubisky among others (first time he has not been better than Mayfield) Josh is 30th for AY/A tied with Mayfield Josh is 23rd in YPG ahead of David Carr, Mariota, and Trubisky among others (2nd time he has not been better than Mayfield) Josh is 29th in QB Rating ahead of Newton and Mayfield among others Josh is 29th in ANY/A ahead of Mayfield and Trubisky among others So by the raw stats Josh is averaging a rank of 26.25. Having him at the bottom of QB ranks shouldn't be surprising right now. Count me in the camp that thinks a lot of these numbers will skyrocket as he has some easy defenses coming up. Having him ranked at 30th right now really isn't that far fetched even if I don't agree with it. What I can't believe is their ranking of Mayfield. He is ahead of Josh in 2 of these stats only. I could see having him in the early to mid 20s but to say he is top 15 right now is ludicrous. At the end of the day though this is all fluff. PFF grades don't matter. If the Bills win the super bowl with Josh playing the part of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer I won't be any less happy. I hope to see continued growth from Josh. He has improved the accuracy now his biggest issue is decision making. Tenn was a very encouraging game in that aspect however I think he over corrected a bit. They have to reign in Josh but not neuter him if that makes any sense. 11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This was prior to the Titans game, correct? Because I didn't "get it" initially it's sorted by BH's QB Rating at the far right column And I don't see how you "get this". I read probably as much of this board as anyone, especially TSW, and I see criticism of Allen all over the place. Unmeasured criticism or negativity like "he sucks" "he'll never be good" tends to get a bad reaction, true, but a lot of people, in almost every relevant thread, criticize various aspects of his game and say they need to improve. Like his turnovers. Because they do, and Allen says so too. Where is this site that has Allen in the mid-20's? The OP post, PFF rankings, has him at 31. Sorry don't buy it. Here is everything he ranks in the mid-20’s for, plus yards after catch which I mentioned. I think we are quibbling over the difference between 26 and 31. I don’t think there is a huge gap between those two ranking worth fighting over. If 26th is that much better than 31st to you, go ahead and eat the W for that one. 5 minutes ago, WideNine said: It was 8 pages responding to the PFF folks who go well out of their way to throw shade on Allen. ...and they have him 31st out of 35. They also flamed him in a podcast that dripped bias and sarcasm and invited the Bills mafia to respond...likely knowing they would get rise out of us. So we were responding. Not sure about the "vibe" thing. Most posters I have read seem to take the long view that Allen has things to work on and is by no means there yet. What I take exception to is the hubris of those who spout absolutes, like "he will never be this or that" because Allen was a known project coming into the league and I don't think anyone knows yet where his ceiling is. There are plenty of posters here I respect that have legit concerns and doubts and it's all good. 20s would be probably where I personally would put his progress to date, but that was not the PFF assessment we were discussing. Interesting to note that there was a recent Cover1 film breakdown that did an objective analysis of Allen's Titan game, the bad - throwing into the crowded middle of the field where an all-pro safety was hanging out, and the good Allen going through his entire progression of reads and hitting his fourth receiving option. So I would agree with your criticism, but rather than say he lacks the ability to read the field which is an absolute, I would say he is learning to read the field better, but he has a ways to go yet. Your last few paragraph’s are fair. Apologies I didn’t mean to lump you in with that crowd.
Mango Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, wiley16350 said: The PFF ranking is 31st, so I don't get where you think it is mid 20's. QBR has him 28th, so again I don't see how you get mid 20's? I think you're wrong about his ability to see the field. Most of his interceptions aren't really poor reads. In the Jets game he had 1 that he forced into coverage. 1 was caused by the receiver. 1 was caused at the line of scrimmage. The last one was because he threw the ball late while on the move and it gave the defender time to make a play on the ball. Against the Bengals he had 1 because he was playing hero ball and the other potential one was actually a great play by the defender who wasn't really in coverage but got back in time to make a play on a deep ball. Maybe the defense purposefully set Allen up but it looked like a great play by a defender covering someone else. I can't comment on the Patriots game since I haven't really watched it that closely. From the quick watch of it, he seemed to be forcing the ball into coverage trying to make a play. I think that Josh tries to do too much at times when the offense is struggling and that is why I think he is fixable. I don't think his interceptions comes from not being able to read the coverage, I think he throws the ball knowing full well that the defense could make a play on the ball but he tries to fit it in there anyway. When a guy struggles with reads the pass is getting picked off by safeties and linebackers in zones. 3 of Allen's int's may count that way but my argument is that only 1 of those probably surprised him that a defender was making a play on the ball and that was the dropped one against the Bengals. The other 2 were forced thinking he could fit the ball in there. YAC is mostly a receiver, scheme and opponent stat. There are instances where a great throw into tight coverage will produce YAC but it doesn't really happen that often, especially on short throws as people imagine. Most of the time YAC comes on wide open throws or where the receiver breaks tackles. Certain types of routes are also better at producing YAC than others are (Flats, Drags, Screens). There are also times where the QB has to throw to a spot where YAC isn't possible because the receiver is well covered. Allen had some of that against the Titans. So for the most part, the YAC that is yearned isn't really because of the QB. There are times where a QB reduces the opportunity for YAC because he takes the receiver to the ground and in that way they can effect YAC. Allen has had a few of those but it's not really that often. I have Allen with 6 instances (2 per game) in the 3 games I've done where he completed a pass and kept the receiver from getting YAC because of where he threw the ball. I have Brady with 4 instances (2 per game) in the 2 games I've done of him where he kept the receiver from getting YAC. I have the Patriots with 214 yards (107 per game) of YAC in those 2 games and the Bills with 257 yards (85 per game) of YAC in the 3 games. So even though both QB's reduced YAC potential twice, the Patriots averaged 22 yards more of YAC per game. Is that because of tackle breaking, scheme, opponents or QB? I think it's safe to say that it really wasn't because of the QB's. Totally disagree with you in terms of YAC. Over the course of an entire season, it isn’t mostly based on scheme, receiver, and opponent. Leaders in no particular order: Mahommes- MVP candidate Brady- First Ballot HoF Rivers- In the HoF conversation. Hampered by bad teams. Brees- First Ballot HoF Big Ben/Rudolph- First Ballot HoF/ Played sting off the bench Goff- Played in Super Bowl Dalton- Franchise QB Ryan- Hall of very good- Played in Super Bowl. Hampered by bad teams. Edited October 18, 2019 by Mango
wiley16350 Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mango said: Totally disagree with you in terms of YAC. Over the course of an entire season, it isn’t mostly based on scheme, receiver, and opponent. Leaders in no particular order: Mahommes- MVP candidate Brady- First Ballot HoF Rivers- In the HoF conversation. Hampered by bad teams. Brees- First Ballot HoF Big Ben/Rudolph- First Ballot HoF/ Played sting off the bench Goff- Played in Super Bowl Dalton- Franchise QB Ryan- Hall of very good- Played in Super Bowl. Hampered by bad teams. That list means nothing to me. It proves nothing. Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen. Allen YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg) Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg) Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg) Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg) Brady YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg) Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg) Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg) Game 2 - none Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg) Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg) Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg) Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg) Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg) Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs) Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg) Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg) Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg) Brady YAC yards with schemed plays Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg) Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg) Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg) These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards. The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions. To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady. That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced. Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws. Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB. Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense. The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above. The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards. That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards. Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg. 2 RB screens went for 77 yards. Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage? Edited October 19, 2019 by wiley16350 2 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This was prior to the Titans game, correct? Because I didn't "get it" initially it's sorted by BH's QB Rating at the far right column Yep. That's pre-Titans & bye. Was the Tuesday after week 4 I believe, and the Pats game dropped Allen from ~20 to 24.
oldmanfan Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 6 hours ago, nedboy7 said: So it’s almost as if there is a conspiracy against him! where would you rank Allen? Top 15? Around 20.
WideNine Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Mango said: Here is everything he ranks in the mid-20’s for, plus yards after catch which I mentioned. I think we are quibbling over the difference between 26 and 31. I don’t think there is a huge gap between those two ranking worth fighting over. If 26th is that much better than 31st to you, go ahead and eat the W for that one. Your last few paragraph’s are fair. Apologies I didn’t mean to lump you in with that crowd. No worries. I keep coming back to this site because I learn a lot from folks here. Plenty of knowledgeable posters and we really don't have to agree on anything other than our team's success. I always thought Allen was going to be at least a two year project with one year spent learning behind a vet, and the last thing I wanted to see was him forced to start year 1 as he was just that green. But here we are, and at 4 and 1 it is better than I hoped. So I don't get too wrapped around the axel if he does not measure up yet to other NFL starters would have been shocked if he did. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Around 20. 20-25
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Mango said: Here is everything he ranks in the mid-20’s for, plus yards after catch which I mentioned. I think we are quibbling over the difference between 26 and 31. I don’t think there is a huge gap between those two ranking worth fighting over. If 26th is that much better than 31st to you, go ahead and eat the W for that one. "eat the W"? WTF? This is a discussion board. We're (supposedly) having a discussion. You're inferring I agree with Hokie's ratings. I see a lot to like in his system, but he says himself it's volatile and needs a bunch of data (games) to settle down. I think 20-25 is probably fair for Allen right now because of all the turnovers. My "eyeball test" would put Allen ahead of Mariota, Dalton, and Keenum in terms of game impact. I don't think we're quibbling about the difference between 20-25 and 31. My point is that if a list is ranking athletes in performance order, and the criterion used is valid, it should correlate to performance metrics - and those performance metrics should be correlated to wins. The problem occurs when people try to boil a multifaceted complex task like playing QB in the NFL down to one number. It becomes very dependent upon what one includes, what one weights, and how, and that's usually pretty subjective. A list which has Allen ranked below QB who have played only 1-2 games, or below QB like Flacco (seriously?) etc can and should have its methodology questioned. And it's not, as you reiterate, about it being somehow "wrong" or "unacceptable" to criticize Allen on this site and therefore going off on PFF. 1 2
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: "eat the W"? WTF? This is a discussion board. We're (supposedly) having a discussion. You're inferring I agree with Hokie's ratings. I see a lot to like in his system, but he says himself it's volatile and needs a bunch of data (games) to settle down. I think 20-25 is probably fair for Allen right now because of all the turnovers. My "eyeball test" would put Allen ahead of Mariota, Dalton, and Keenum in terms of game impact. I don't think we're quibbling about the difference between 20-25 and 31. My point is that if a list is ranking athletes in performance order, and the criterion used is valid, it should correlate to performance metrics - and those performance metrics should be correlated to wins. The problem occurs when people try to boil a multifaceted complex task like playing QB in the NFL down to one number. It becomes very dependent upon what one includes, what one weights, and how, and that's usually pretty subjective. A list which has Allen ranked below QB who have played only 1-2 games, or below QB like Flacco (seriously?) etc can and should have its methodology questioned. And it's not, as you reiterate, about it being somehow "wrong" or "unacceptable" to criticize Allen on this site and therefore going off on PFF. Seriously, one of the best posts I've read in awhile. You must have statistical background!?
GunnerBill Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 10 hours ago, wiley16350 said: That list means nothing to me. It proves nothing. Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen. Allen YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg) Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg) Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg) Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg) Brady YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg) Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg) Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg) Game 2 - none Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg) Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg) Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg) Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg) Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg) Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs) Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg) Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg) Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg) Brady YAC yards with schemed plays Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg) Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg) Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg) These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards. The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions. To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady. That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced. Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws. Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB. Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense. The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above. The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards. That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards. Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg. 2 RB screens went for 77 yards. Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage? This is an actual breakdown though which is much more nuanced than what you said at the start. All YAC is not created equal. Some of it is scheme, some of it is receiver talent and some of it is Quarterback precision accuracy and timing. If you go through games and break them down you can work out which YAC is down to which cause. But that doesn't mean you should never give the QB credit for YAC because without doing the sort of exercise you have done here taking away all YAC from a QB would give you a distorted picture.
Mango Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: "eat the W"? WTF? This is a discussion board. We're (supposedly) having a discussion. You're inferring I agree with Hokie's ratings. I see a lot to like in his system, but he says himself it's volatile and needs a bunch of data (games) to settle down. I think 20-25 is probably fair for Allen right now because of all the turnovers. My "eyeball test" would put Allen ahead of Mariota, Dalton, and Keenum in terms of game impact. I don't think we're quibbling about the difference between 20-25 and 31. My point is that if a list is ranking athletes in performance order, and the criterion used is valid, it should correlate to performance metrics - and those performance metrics should be correlated to wins. The problem occurs when people try to boil a multifaceted complex task like playing QB in the NFL down to one number. It becomes very dependent upon what one includes, what one weights, and how, and that's usually pretty subjective. A list which has Allen ranked below QB who have played only 1-2 games, or below QB like Flacco (seriously?) etc can and should have its methodology questioned. And it's not, as you reiterate, about it being somehow "wrong" or "unacceptable" to criticize Allen on this site and therefore going off on PFF. Eat the W was a reference to a weird Jamie’s Winston pre game speech a few years ago. I understand what you’re saying, but I don’t think individual play always correlated to wins. With the HOU or SEA defense, this team is probable 1-4. I’m calling NYG a win because it is the only one we beat somebody by 7+
Stank_Nasty Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Mango said: Eat the W was a reference to a weird Jamie’s Winston pre game speech a few years ago. I understand what you’re saying, but I don’t think individual play always correlated to wins. With the HOU or SEA defense, this team is probable 1-4. I’m calling NYG a win because it is the only one we beat somebody by 7+ I really don’t like when people do this. If the bills have one of those defenses their offensive approach may have been completely different. And it may or may not have worked out much better or much worse. .... I cringe every single time I see that pregame speech.
Mango Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 11 hours ago, wiley16350 said: That list means nothing to me. It proves nothing. Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen. Allen YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg) Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg) Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg) Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg) Brady YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg) Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg) Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg) Game 2 - none Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg) Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg) Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg) Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg) Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg) Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs) Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg) Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg) Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg) Brady YAC yards with schemed plays Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg) Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg) Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg) These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards. The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions. To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady. That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced. Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws. Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB. Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense. The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above. The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards. That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards. Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg. 2 RB screens went for 77 yards. Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage? Via DVOA the Bills played the 16,23, and 31st defenses in the games listed. Pats played 32 and 9. Defenses played really aren’t great. You also don’t give a metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC. I get what you’re saying. But we are almost halfway through the season. The difference between Brady and Allen is far more than supporting cast and scheming. Brady has made an entire career out of finding the open guy and allowing him to make a play. And he’s done it consistently regardless of supporting cast. 4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: I really don’t like when people do this. If the bills have one of those defenses their offensive approach may have been completely different. And it may or may not have worked out much better or much worse. .... I cringe every single time I see that pregame speech. it’s why I didn’t pick MIA or CIN for reference. Just to middling average defenses. I get what you’re saying. But I think the defense has really bailed him out too often. Sort of like the bears in 2006/7 (I think that was the year)
wiley16350 Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mango said: Via DVOA the Bills played the 16,23, and 31st defenses in the games listed. Pats played 32 and 9. Defenses played really aren’t great. You also don’t give a metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC. I get what you’re saying. But we are almost halfway through the season. The difference between Brady and Allen is far more than supporting cast and scheming. Brady has made an entire career out of finding the open guy and allowing him to make a play. And he’s done it consistently regardless of supporting cast. I did give the metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC in an earlier post. Allen had 6 in the 3 games and Brady had 4 in the 2 games so they both had 2 in each game. I agree that Brady is better at getting the ball underneath, which is the main way a QB can help improve YAC. I said that in both of my previous posts on the topic. Here is a clear way of what I believe because I don't think we really disagree. 1. Great accuracy is rarely the reason for YAC as announcers like to pretend it does. 2. The only time accuracy really plays a factor is when it takes the receiver to the ground. 3. Scheme, Defense, Situation and the skill player has a bigger role in YAC than the QB does in most instances. 4. Some QB's will get more YAC because they are quicker to the check down or outlet passes. Edited October 19, 2019 by wiley16350
Fan in Chicago Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/17/2019 at 5:34 PM, Bangarang said: There’s room for improvement. I’d like to see him have a game or 2 where he goes off and throws for like 350 yards and 3TDs. So.... This is saying that five starting QBs with less than 2 years starting experience, except Jackson, are worst against the blitz ? Nice to know
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 11 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: Seriously, one of the best posts I've read in awhile. You must have statistical background!? Haha well, by training I'm a scientist, professionally I'm an engineer, so I've worked with stats all my life. But more than a statistician, I've spent good parts of my professional life considering "is this a valid metric for what we're trying to improve here?" "are these the right questions to probe what we're trying to learn?" and similar issues. I think you're too kind, but I do appreciate the nod. So thanks! 2
CodeMonkey Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 This is how 538 grades out QB's. Seems to be a lot more reasonable to me. 538 grades QBs 1
Locomark Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) Well Hapless Bills Fan has this right that this rating could have a lot of flaws and no one should jump ship over it. However the clear points to me are: a) Josh need to improve b) Josh won’t get any love until he starts putting up some big yardage games. c) Josh makes plays in almost every game that makes you go “wow.” I haven’t seen these QB escape plays since Flutie, and some obvious high end talent plays in a Bills QB in 30 years. is he the franchise QB we hoped for? I would say it’s leaning to a yes. I think we will know that by the end of next season. He has plenty of games left this year and next year we have a boatload of $ to add even more weapons and talent to truly see what we have. Imagine if Josh had KC’s WRs and TE.... Edited October 19, 2019 by Locomark 1 1 1
GunnerBill Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, wiley16350 said: I did give the metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC in an earlier post. Allen had 6 in the 3 games and Brady had 4 in the 2 games so they both had 2 in each game. I agree that Brady is better at getting the ball underneath, which is the main way a QB can help improve YAC. I said that in both of my previous posts on the topic. Here is a clear way of what I believe because I don't think we really disagree. 1. Great accuracy is rarely the reason for YAC as announcers like to pretend it does. 2. The only time accuracy really plays a factor is when it takes the receiver to the ground. 3. Scheme, Defense, Situation and the skill player has a bigger role in YAC than the QB does in most instances. 4. Some QB's will get more YAC because they are quicker to the check down or outlet passes. I am sorry I do disgaree on 1. It isn't the only reason but it is more than rarely the reason.
Gugny Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I am sorry I do disgaree on 1. It isn't the only reason but it is more than rarely the reason. Absolutely. Throwing receivers open and hitting them in stride are major factors in YAC. 1
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