D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 9 hours ago, Bangarang said: Are these the same people that consider QB rating a controversial stat or the ones that hate on PFF in one thread but accept their conclusion in another when it’s what they want to hear? Dude, this isn't about the last word, just take the L and put in the pile with all the others.
Don Otreply Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 10 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Oh, I think he's going to be great. I'm a huge fan of his. But anyone who thinks he's playing like a top 20 quarterback isn't watching. He has a long way to go. Having said that, I think we will see a much better QB in the coming weeks. This^^ and I agreed. Josh is a work in progress, let’s not forget that he was and is considered to be well behind in quality coaching throughout his college years, at this point imo he has one year of real QB training under his belt, but he is showing why he was considered a top ten pick. Go bills!!!
GunnerBill Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 Oh great it is a we hate PFF thread! We haven't had one of those in at least two weeks. 1
oldmanfan Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 I reviewed some articles on line about this PFF group. Teams seem to buy their information not for the scores they come up with, but for the amount of film they generate so that teams can use the film for their own analysis. There was one article with Belichick, where he comments on the PFF approach. Simply put, his criticism (and it pretty much matches that of other critics) is that without knowing the play call, and the specific assignment for an individual player on that play call, it's pointless totry and grade a player on a specific play. Since this is about QBs' it becomes even more complex. Take the whole accuracy thing. Apparently Allen is getting criticized for only having perfect accuracy (which is really precision, but I won't go into that again) by these pff guys. here's the deal on that: the only way you can truly judge whether a throw is put exactly where a QB wants it, is to be in the QB's head when he throws so you know what the exact target is that he wants to hit. A QB may make a throw to the exact spot he wants, but the WR doesn't get to the spot in time, or the QB didn't read the pattern correctly. And so on. So to me teams can and do buy their product, but I really doubt they buy it because they feel these ratings per play mean anything. 1
r00tabaga Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: I reviewed some articles on line about this PFF group. Teams seem to buy their information not for the scores they come up with, but for the amount of film they generate so that teams can use the film for their own analysis. There was one article with Belichick, where he comments on the PFF approach. Simply put, his criticism (and it pretty much matches that of other critics) is that without knowing the play call, and the specific assignment for an individual player on that play call, it's pointless totry and grade a player on a specific play. Since this is about QBs' it becomes even more complex. Take the whole accuracy thing. Apparently Allen is getting criticized for only having perfect accuracy (which is really precision, but I won't go into that again) by these pff guys. here's the deal on that: the only way you can truly judge whether a throw is put exactly where a QB wants it, is to be in the QB's head when he throws so you know what the exact target is that he wants to hit. A QB may make a throw to the exact spot he wants, but the WR doesn't get to the spot in time, or the QB didn't read the pattern correctly. And so on. So to me teams can and do buy their product, but I really doubt they buy it because they feel these ratings per play mean anything. They have the Titans ahead of the Bills on their power rankings through week 7 that should tell you everything you need to know. #19th actually ROTFL
RememberTheRockpile Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: So to me teams can and do buy their product, but I really doubt they buy it because they feel these ratings per play mean anything. The assumption is that the product the teams buy is the same product they offer to the consumer. This is just naive.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 10 hours ago, Bangarang said: Are these the same people that consider QB rating a controversial stat or the ones that hate on PFF in one thread but accept their conclusion in another when it’s what they want to hear? More likely they're the ones who respond to that other thread "yeah, but that's PFF - they had Tyrod Taylor as 9th in their QB rating in 2015. We gotta take them with a big sack o' salt" 3 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said: welp, looks like I hate PFF now. You don't have to hate 'em, but you got to look at their whole picture and get out the salt shaker. If they have a list of QB, look at their list of QB and say "how does that match what I see?" "how does that match with conventional stats like passer rating?" etc etc. 2 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said: The assumption is that the product the teams buy is the same product they offer to the consumer. This is just naive. PFF assembles all sorts of 'analytics' type stats, breakdowns of team and player performance by down and distance, QB performance at different distance and to different areas of the field etc. This is likely the stuff teams purchase both to self-scout and to scout their opponent - not PFF's OL performance ratings or their QB ratings that they market to the fantasy fans.
oldmanfan Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said: The assumption is that the product the teams buy is the same product they offer to the consumer. This is just neive. Quite true.
JaCrispy Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 14 hours ago, mykidsdad said: They want JA to be bad. If he isn't they lose a lot of credibility and even money, because teams are using their metrics to pick players. Yup...and that is what they call “fake news” ?
colin Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 my issues w PFF are: their model is not predictive. It just doesn't tell us who is going to play well and lead their team to wins next season. tyrod being ranked high on what in retrospect was a perfectly optimized O for him is a great example. they might have consistently great qbs ranked consistently high, but so does every fan who just watches the games, or just sees the QB stats. they seem to err on the side of "do no harm", tyrod vs josh allen shows us that. tyrod is physically or psychologically incapable of making a play in most circumstances. him never winning when down by like 7 at the half or ever down by 1 point in the 4th is pretty shocking. if you remember the jaxonville playoff game, he contributed basically zero all game. making mistakes hurts, and josh has made just idiotic mistakes, but the ability to make plays while also making mistakes is more important than the absence of mistakes. the models they use require data integrity which isn't possible. these guys with their adjustments for 100% on the mark, and however the rate each individual player at different positions is basically un-falsifiable guesses that they jam in there. If their metrics don't related to how players are bid for in free agency (where they have some OG ranked as like 2nd and he signs a small contract, while some guy they have as 65th gets a big ol wad of cash) over a large number of players, either they are the only people on the planet who actually understand pro football, or the GM's and coaches in the NFL disprove their rankings. im much more interested in team statistics, which are more meaningful and are predictive. 1 1
Mango Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 8 hours ago, WideNine said: Apparently Beane was not buying their evaluation of QB's prior to the 2018 draft as PFFs Analysis Team ranking of the 2018 QB draft class went like this: 1. Baker Mayfield 2. Will Grier 3. Mason Rudolph 4. Lamar Jackson 5. Josh Rosen 6. Mike White 7. Jake Browning 8. Luke Falk 9. Auston Allen 10. Jerrett Stidham 11. Daniel Jones 12. Sam Darnold 13. Josh Allen Not that I am saying folks may have a bias, but wouldn't you just look plain silly if the guy you have ranked dead last became good? Not that many NFL teams seemed to be listening to their player evaluations prior to the draft.Though they did get Mayfield right, but heck half our board predicted that and don't claim to be experts with all the secret sauce formulas to back up the educated guesswork needed to predict what QB the Browns would take. Plenty of other metrics have merit and may be leveraged - situational statistics that help teams crunch probabilities for down and distance what a team is most likely to do offensively or defensively. It is the application of those collected metrics that help teams put a thumb on the probability scale and come up with game plans. That is why most teams have an analytics guy and it may be easier to buy the raw data collected by a group like PFF than to create your own. They have data, and they have opinions. I will go out on a limb and say that the Bills and other NFL teams are most likely interested in the data they collect and not so much their opinions, interpretations, and player evaluations. I am just here to stop the fake news. That isn't their QB ranking for the QB's. No only was Sam Darnold not their #12 QB....he was their #2 prospect in the entire draft, regardless of position. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-big-board-top-250-players-for-the-2018-nfl-draft I know it blasphemy on this board. But while Allen has improved, I am still not impressed or convinced he is the answer at QB yet. He could be, but he still looks a ways off to my eye. Allen hasn't played well enough for us to be 2-3 if we had say, the SEA or HOU defense. That doesn't mean I hate the guy, or root for him to fail. Just an honest interpretation thus far. That said, he might be the most exciting player in the league at the position....that doesn't make him good at it. 1 1
wiley16350 Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 I think the main problem with PFF is that they don't credit QB's enough with the simple passes. For that reason, guys like Mariota and Tyrod Taylor get a little over rated and a guy like Allen gets under rated. Allen has been pretty good in the short to intermediate range but has struggled more with the deep ball and having too many turnovers. The intermediate range is truly what shows a QB's potential and that's where Allen has been much better than some of the guys above him. One guy that I clearly think shouldn't be above Allen is Mariota. I have done 3 of his games and 3 of Allen's games and Allen has a 102+ rating from me while Mariota is in the 70's. To be fair, I haven't done Allen's game against the Patriots, which was his worst. I also haven't done the game against the Titans which was seemingly bad for Mariota and good for Allen. I don't see how Mariota would be considered better than Allen. Mariota and Tyrod are perfect example of why the simple passes matter. Those guys take too many sacks when simple plays are available to them. I actually find that Allen has avoided a lot of sacks in a multitude of ways. Believe it or not, there have been sacks he has avoided by getting rid of the ball quickly. He has also done it by breaking tackles, leaving the pocket at the right time and throwing the ball away. I wish I could keep up with the season in my grading but it takes a lot of time. There are definite questions on this list. I've done 3 of Mayfield's games and he wasn't as high as Allen but the New England game could be a big weight for Allen I guess. I question how high Darnold is, he has only played 2 games and he wasn't that good against the Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been much better than his numbers but I don't think I have him better than Allen. Winston has had a couple of really good games but also a couple of really bad ones, I find him to be questionable too. 1
Happy Days Lois & Clark Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 Josh Allen needs to improve on his TD to INT ratio. He also fumbles too often.
voodoo poonani Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) Nick and Nolan discuss metrics Edited October 18, 2019 by voodoo poonani
mykidsdad Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Don Otreply said: This^^ and I agreed. Josh is a work in progress, let’s not forget that he was and is considered to be well behind in quality coaching throughout his college years, at this point imo he has one year of real QB training under his belt, but he is showing why he was considered a top ten pick. Go bills!!! Agreed. Josh is in a way entering his rookie year this game. As we all know Josh went to Wyoming which may have less talent than some Div 2 Schools. It is one thing to come out of a small school and conference as a non QB, but as a QB? There was and is a crazy huge learning curve. With the lack of quality college experience Josh had, we are really only now starting to see what he would look like as a Rookie. 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Yep. Guy has a very long way to go to prove he will be a starting QB in this league for the long haul..... I think Darnold is already there. ScottLaw, you aren't a special poster because you think Allen has a long way to go. No. What makes you standout is your corresponding opinion that Darnold is already there. If that isn't next level trolling, I don't know what is. Props for being great at what you do. 1
Stank_Nasty Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Yep. Guy has a very long way to go to prove he will be a starting QB in this league for the long haul..... I think Darnold is already there. 1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: ScottLaw, you aren't a special poster because you think Allen has a long way to go. No. What makes you standout is your corresponding opinion that Darnold is already there. If that isn't next level trolling, I don't know what is. Props for being great at what you do. yup. i was just about to ask what in the world he's seen from darnold, CONSISTENTLY, that he could make such a premature proclamation. as far as this year goes its crazy, after one solid game, how fast people forget he looked completely overwhelmed against a good defense in week 1. allen was head and shoulders the better qb that day.
mykidsdad Posted October 18, 2019 Posted October 18, 2019 I can't believe the blatant contempt PFF has for Buffalo putting a 4-1 team at 20. The Titans are 19 on their list, and they have Denver 17. Does their whole organization exist to troll Buffalo? I think the ax they have to grind about Josh is really a thing. Wow. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings
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