QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

John Brown has made a career of being a burner and catching the deep ball. He’s a big play waiting to happen.

 

Yes, but if there is a safety or two over top, and most teams play Allen Cover 1 or 2, then that man coverage big play opportunity is taken away. Unless we want him to throw into that...

 

Brown has been surprisingly good underneath and that is what defenses are giving up and that is what Allen should take.

 

If Daboll decides to lean on the run more (with Singletary if and when he can go again), then safeties will start to cheat up to the box and we may catch some man coverage downfield and I like our odds to beat that. Now Allen has to prove he can connect on those when he has the shot and can step into the throw.

 

 

As far as PFF goes, a monkey throwing darts at a spreadsheet would provide as much useful analysis. These PFF tools tailor a few metrics to fit their bias.

 

As much as I like Wentz when he has been healthy enough to play he has usually had a pretty solid supporting cast, but has not been healthy to play many games. I am not even sure he has ever gone up against a stat-killing NE defense yet in his career, and he is #2. Not to mention the oft-benched Mariota and Fitzpatrick ranked so high....

 

Whatever.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What's their grades based on win/loss record? 

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

[WideNine]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

 

If we are just basing grades on feelings would you really take Stafford, or Lamar Jackson, or Dak, or half a dozen other QBs over Mahomes?

 

Seriously?

[CincyBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

I mean, it's not surprising at all. I'm sure our fans will get pissed and argue how this isn't indicative of the player he is, and that in reality he's the one QB in modern history that's a great player while simultaneously playing like he has...

There's definitely room for growth, but man does he have to get MUCH better to be a real franchise QB.

 

Edit: Yup...after reading through some comments, of course people now are just outright dismissing PFF because they don't like what they see. Did anyone really think after watching how Allen's played so far that he'd be ranked higher than these guys? Honestly?

 

If they had only rated Allen poorly you might have a point.  But did you check out their other QB ratings?  Luckily they're not using these analytics to launch rockets - it would be ugly.

 

 

13 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Edit: Yup...after reading through some comments, of course people now are just outright dismissing PFF because they don't like what they see. Did anyone really think after watching how Allen's played so far that he'd be ranked higher than these guys? Honestly?

 

He's definitely playing better then Mayfield and Mariota.  Can you honestly say he isn't?

 

 

[r00tabaga]

I've never even heard of them. They have no legitimacy IMO. It is a bad list and laughable team ranking LMAO! They are just a couple dorks who have never play'd but have a mic & keyboard.

[Shaw66]

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

Absurd and Nonsensical! You can't tell me the QB doesn't have an enormous impact on whether the team wins or loses. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

When you are within 5 people of M. Trubiski on any list it is not a good thing.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

You’re shortsighted in the 4th quarter comebacks I would say.  Allen has things to learn to be sure.  But if you watch his game he’s more accurate with throws, he has a higher completion percentage, he’s using shorter patterns.  All good things.  He still needs to make quicker reads and needs to quit throwing late back into the middle of the field.  Those are bad.

 

It really comes down to whether you think a couple guys throwing around fancy terms on a website have any more validity than the next guy.  I don’t.  Shaw, maybe you and I should get together and do one of these; we’d be as good as these guys and probably better.

 

Oh, and the defense winning games?  Fine by me.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Allen is having a down year, he is not seeing the field as well and his accuracy on long and medium depth routes is troubling. Sometimes when they open the full play book a QB takes a step back. They need to make sure Allen is ready or cut back some plays.

[Don Otreply]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

Yup, he does have  lapses in concentration that negatively effect  his production,  but it’s early yet, he has just finished one season worth of games started, I still think he can reduce his mistakes, and help the team score more points.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

The same PFF that has the Bills #19 in their Power Rankings?  

 

dorks

 

The same PFF who never liked Allen coming out of college and who go out of their way to find ways to prove the are right about him - such as this piece of wisdom from a PFF article a couple of weeks ago:

 

"Though Allen has generated a high adjusted completion percentage thus far (77.6%), that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been accurate. Only 17 of his 163 passing attempts this season have been deemed as 100% on the mark."

 

Their own method of generating adjusted completion percentage puts Allen near the top of the league, yet they still claim him to be innacurate. Either they are admitting their own methodology and evaluation of adjusted completion % isn't worth a s*** and, basically, meaningless, or they are just pushing an agenda.

 

100% on the mark?

 

WTF

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Yup, he does have  lapses in concentration that negatively effect  his production,  but it’s early yet, he has just finished one season worth of games started, I still think he can reduce his mistakes, and help the team score more points.

Oh, I think he's going to be great.   I'm a huge fan of his.  

 

But anyone who thinks he's playing like a top 20 quarterback isn't watching.   He has a long way to go.   Having said that, I think we will see a much better QB in the coming weeks.  

[H2o]

15 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The same PFF who never liked Allen coming out of college and who go out of their way to find ways to prove the are right about him - such as this piece of wisdom from a PFF article a couple of weeks ago:

 

"Though Allen has generated a high adjusted completion percentage thus far (77.6%), that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been accurate. Only 17 of his 163 passing attempts this season have been deemed as 100% on the mark."

 

Their own method of generating adjusted completion percentage puts Allen near the top of the league, yet they still claim him to be innacurate. Either they are admitting their own methodology and evaluation of adjusted completion % isn't worth a s*** and, basically, meaningless, or they are just pushing an agenda.

 

100% on the mark?

 

WTF

You're preaching to the chior here brother. Dorks making YouTube videos in their mom's basement. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

 

Let’s put the bottom line up front that Allen has to improve.  We know it, Daboll knows it, Allen knows it.  And the key focus area he needs to improve is turnovers.

 

That said, let’s take a little walk through Passer Rating Lane to sanity check your “all”.  Do you really think Allen is legit the 30th QB in the league right now?  Do you really believe that Case Keenum, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have all played better, more effective QBing than Allen?  Because if so, I’m here to tell you I think you’re mistaken.  Passer rating has value, and the cream rises to the top, but it has limitations too which is why groups like CHFF and Football Outsiders are always seeking more informative stats.  For a reasoned (but limited) critique try here.  Omitted are considerations of total yardage, total TD, and total TO.

 

I’d like to see if I can entice @BuffaloHokie13 to weigh in here as he has evolved his own passer rating.

 

I also think you do under-value Allens’ contributions to the comeback wins.  Yes Wins are team stats, but I think Allen’s contribution to those wins is under-valued by a statement like “the defense is winning all those games, not Allen”. Just as the Bills don’t win those games without the stellar D effort, they don’t win without the spark Allen provided, either.

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Oh, I think he's going to be great.   I'm a huge fan of his.  

 

But anyone who thinks he's playing like a top 20 quarterback isn't watching.   He has a long way to go.   Having said that, I think we will see a much better QB in the coming weeks.  

 

OK you don’t think he’s playing like a top 20 QB.  Do you honestly believe he’s playing like the #30 QB in the league, which is what “all you have to do is look at passer rating” implies?

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

Yes, but if there is a safety or two over top, and most teams play Allen Cover 1 or 2, then that man coverage big play opportunity is taken away. Unless we want him to throw into that...

 

Brown has been surprisingly good underneath and that is what defenses are giving up and that is what Allen should take.

 

If Daboll decides to lean on the run more (with Singletary if and when he can go again), then safeties will start to cheat up to the box and we may catch some man coverage downfield and I like our odds to beat that. Now Allen has to prove he can connect on those when he has the shot and can step into the throw.

 

 

As far as PFF goes, a monkey throwing darts at a spreadsheet would provide as much useful analysis. These PFF tools tailor a few metrics to fit their bias.

 

As much as I like Wentz when he has been healthy enough to play he has usually had a pretty solid supporting cast, but has not been healthy to play many games. I am not even sure he has ever gone up against a stat-killing NE defense yet in his career, and he is #2. Not to mention the oft-benched Mariota and Fitzpatrick ranked so high....

 

Whatever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PFF is good. Not perfect, of course, but they're very good, and they don't tailor the stats to what they want to find.

 

Now, do the watchers find their perceptions are interfered with somewhat by their preconceptions. Yup. Same as every single human being in the history of history, but PFF still does a good job.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Get over what Allen thing? This is literally a thread about a PFF stat for QBs. 

 

I think he’s trying to tell you that anyone who objects to the PFF stats or the ESPN blitz stat you brought in, is not just an Allen homer who dismisses anything that doesn’t say “Allen is Great”.

 

You seem to conflate the two.

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

PFF is good. Not perfect, of course, but they're very good, and they don't tailor the stats to what they want to find.

 

Now, do the watchers find their perceptions are interfered with somewhat by their preconceptions. Yup. Same as every single human being in the history of history, but PFF still does a good job.

 

Not convinced, but to each their own.

 

Their opinion is just that, once you get down to the subjective interpretations of things like "accurate pass".

 

It is hard enough to get 3 people watching the same replay in slow motion to agree on what they are seeing. That is where subjective bias comes into play and we know where they and some others stand in regards to Allen.

 

It is not like their opinion really matters, it is our coaches and who they feel gives this team the best chance to win.

 

 

 

 

[BillsfaninChicago]

This grade chart gets an F....

[Bangarang]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think he’s trying to tell you that anyone who objects to the PFF stats or the ESPN blitz stat you brought in, is not just an Allen homer who dismisses anything that doesn’t say “Allen is Great”.

 

You seem to conflate the two.

I don’t conflate the two actually.