SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 8 hours ago, Rico said: I haven't read or seen this scenario, but according to the tracker after this Pats-Texans game IF: Bills lose to Ravens but beat Steelers & Pats. Pats lose to Chiefs and Bills but beat Bengals. Week 17, Pats have a 1-game lead on the Bills. Bills beat Jets Fitzy and the Dolfelons beat the Pats (they've upset them many times over the years) Bills win the East. You were thinking too hard ... We already beat the Bengals Focus on beating the Ravens Focus on beating the Steelers (on the road) Focus on beating the Putz*** Do #1(W) and the Bills CLINCH a WC. Do #2, #3 (W) and we might just get the #1 seed. 4 hours ago, KayAdams said: Finish the season 0-4, and you can see the Bills will need some help but nothing too unrealistic. The Colts, Browns, and Raiders will likely disqualify themselves, while the Steelers will likely jump over the Bills in this scenario. So that means the Titans would need to have a mediocre finish (2-2 or worse...very possible because they play the Texans twice, the Saints, and the Raiders). Does this make sense? Any faulty logic you see? ZERO. Cuz That AINT happening
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 4 hours ago, ganesh said: Don't blame the Analytics..In this case blame the messenger...The Analytics is NOT Wrong...The person interpreting is making up things. are Analytics based on stats? psssst Stats lie.
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 The New York Times model is the best, in my opinion. Lose out: 54% chance of making playoffs (this is probably what Cynthia Frelund will have, LOL) Lose out until beating Jets: 96% chance of making playoffs Win out: 56% chance of #1 seed Win out and Chiefs beat Patriots: #1 seed
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 (edited) #1 Seed Ravens REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Bills (9-3), vs. Jets (4-8), at Browns (5-7), vs. Steelers (7-5) #2 Seed Putz*** REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Chiefs (8-4), at Bengals (1-11), vs. Bills (9-3), vs. Dolphins (3-9) #3 Seed Texans REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Broncos (4-8), at Titans (7-5), at Buccaneers (5-7), vs. Titans (7-5) #4 Seed Chiefs REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Patriots (10-2), vs. Broncos (4-8), at Bears (6-6), vs. Chargers (4-8) #5 Seed Buffalo REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Ravens (10-2), at Steelers (7-5), at Patriots (10-2), vs. Jets (4-8) #6 Seed Steelers REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Cardinals (3-8-1), vs. Bills (9-3), at Jets (4-8), at Ravens (10-2) AFC tiebreakers: Baltimore is ahead of New England based on head to head (1-0). Houston is ahead of Kansas City based on head to head (1-0). Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (6-3 to the Titans' 5-4). Oakland is ahead of Indianapolis based on head to head (1-0). Denver is ahead of the L.A. Chargers in the AFC West based on head to head sweep (2-0). Jacksonville is ahead of Denver and the N.Y. Jets based on head to head sweep (2-0). Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (4-5 to the Jets' 1-7). The L.A. Chargers are ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (2-7 to the Jets' 1-7). NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13) NFC tiebreakers: San Francisco is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record (7-1 to the Saints' 8-2). Tampa Bay is ahead of Carolina in the NFC South based on division record (2-3 to the Panthers' 1-3). Tampa Bay is ahead of Philadelphia based on conference record (4-6 to the Eagles' 3-5). Philadelphia is ahead of Carolina based on conference record (3-5 to the Panthers' 2-7). Detroit is ahead of Arizona based on conference record (2-6-1 to the Cardinals' 2-7-1). Atlanta is ahead of Washington based on conference record (3-6 to the Redskins' 2-6). 6 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: The New York Times model is the best, in my opinion. Lose out: 54% chance of making playoffs (this is probably what Cynthia Frelund will have, LOL) Lose out until beating Jets: 96% chance of making playoffs Win out: 56% chance of #1 seed Win out and Chiefs beat Patriots: #1 seed Tha's too complicated. I want to look at 1 number Bills 9-3 94% to make the playoffs NFL http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture ESPN http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine ESPN standings https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff NYT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html CBS https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace Edited December 2, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 (edited) THE ONLY sure way to get the #1 seed is to win out and also have NE lose to KC That means NO resting players for the JETS game in Buffalo of the top contenders Week 14 rooting interests at Bills (9-3) over Ravens (10-2)at Chiefs (8-4) over Putz*** (10-2)at Texans (8-4) over Denver (4-8) Steelers (7-5) at Cardinals (3-8-1) As a Just in case scenario we need the Cards to win this week Edited December 2, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost 1
blacklabel Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 7 hours ago, 707BillsFan said: A few weeks back, she predicted the Bills would finish with 9 wins, having a 42% chance of making the playoffs (Texans were also 9 wins, 50% and wild card team #1)...but the kicker, she had the Jaguars winning 8 games but a higher percentage and projected wild card team #2. I didn't understand how that happened. Bills projected at 9 wins, Jags 8...but the Jags getting the wild card. She's a farce. ? Barf. Yeah, I don't know what her process is for coming up with these numbers but I'm willing to bet she just throws all team names in a hat and picks at random.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 (edited) https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/12/2/20991527/afc-playoff-picture-heres-how-the-buffalo-bills-can-clinch-a-playoff-spot-in-week-14 Here’s the clinching scenario: Buffalo beat Baltimore AND Denver beats Houston AND Tampa Bay beats Indianapolis AND Tennessee beats Oakland This would guarantee that Buffalo would finish in the top two for the Wild Card. Now they just have to beat the Ravens... LOL that's why I try to avoid Rumblings ... Buffalo beat Baltimore PERIOD. Edited December 2, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost
Chandemonium Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: THE ONLY sure way to get the #1 seed is to win out and also have NE lose to KC That means NO resting players for the JETS game in Buffalo I don’t think this is entirely true. It’s still mathematically possible, although unlikely that the Bills could be sitting at 12-3 and all other division leaders and the Pats* at 10-5 headed into week 17.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Chandemonium said: I don’t think this is entirely true. It’s still mathematically possible, although unlikely that the Bills could be sitting at 12-3 and all other division leaders and the Pats* at 10-5 headed into week 17. I'm sure that there is some variation of wins and losses that can cause a ripple effect. there always is. Like Andy Dalton throwing a TD pass on 4th and 14 from the 48 1
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: I'm sure that there is some variation of wins and losses that can cause a ripple effect. there always is. Like Andy Dalton throwing a TD pass on 4th and 14 from the 48 I was just going to post that now Dalton is back in he can do us a favor again this year haha. 3
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28183380/2019-nfl-playoff-picture-afc-nfc-standings-seeds-scenarios-outlook-week-13 (There is still a game tonight in the AFC so expect a slight change on the NFC) 5. Buffalo Bills (9-3) Thanksgiving Day brought one of the Bills' most meaningful and impressive victories in two decades. By dismantling the division-leading Cowboys on the road in a short week, the Bills showed they are capable of more than just feasting on a weak schedule. As a result, they are now a near lock for a wild-card playoff spot. They're even in position to swoop into the AFC East lead if the Patriots falter. The Bills' chance to reach the postseason is now 96.6%, according to FPI. With one more victory, they'll have their best regular-season record since 1999. Next up: vs. Baltimore (Week 14)
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 (edited) ELIMINATED 15 Miami 3-9 16. Cinci 1-11 Too bad, so sad. 13 Lions 3-8-1 14 Cards 3-8-1 15 Falcons 3-9 16 Giants 2-10 Edited December 2, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost
Boatdrinks Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 So it seems like the Bills are in with a 10th win in week 17 vs Jets unless Bills , TEN and HOU are tied at 10-6 with TEN owing a head to head sweep of HOU. Anyone else ran these scenarios ? That’s the only one I’ve come up with where the Bills are out at 10-6 .
ngbills Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs.
OZBILLS Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, ngbills said: Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. Stats wise, you would say HOU. Either/or
Boatdrinks Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ngbills said: Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if 10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. Edited December 2, 2019 by Boatdrinks
ngbills Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if 10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. I guess my mindset is not on us being at 10-6. That would be a huge letdown given it means losses to BAL, PIT and NE. Higher expectations...must win 1 if not 2 of those games.
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if 10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. Why does that scenario knock us out?
Boatdrinks Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, ngbills said: I guess my mindset is not on us being at 10-6. That would be a huge letdown given it means losses to BAL, PIT and NE. Higher expectations...must win 1 if not 2 of those games. I’d love for the Bills to get 11 or more wins, but there are expectations and then there’s reality. Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Ravens have won 8 in a row and beat both NE and SF. The Steelers may not have a dynamic offense, but they’re physical and tough. Their defense is a top ten unit in both yards and points allowed, ( BAL and PIT are 5th and 7th in scoring defense) and the game has been flexed to prime time. That won’t be a cakewalk by any means. Fortunately, the Bills have stacked wins and have some breathing room. I wouldn’t view a 10 win season as a letdown at all. The sequence of the wins shouldn’t tarnish the record, as this isn’t college football. While none of the remaining games is unwinnable, they’ve never beaten NE in foxboro when Brady played the entire game. Take it for what it’s worth. 30 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: Why does that scenario knock us out? I’m not certain what the reason is, but a 3 way tie at 10-6 with the Texans , Bills, and Titans including a Titans sweep of HOU knocks the Bills out in my scenarios on playoff machine( ESPN). It doesn’t give explanations that I know of, and I haven’t reviewed tiebreaking procedures to figure it out. Seems to be one of the few situations the Bills could miss out in. Edit: this is factoring in a Bills loss to PIT Edited December 3, 2019 by Boatdrinks
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 3, 2019 Author Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, ngbills said: Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. Tennessee has Tannehill right? he can win games but can he sweep Houston? I’m not sold on that theory (yet) Getting to 11 will beat those that can only get to 10. Being the underdog steal one from Balt and or NE*** and I believe that they are safe. 12-4 was something I posted lightheartedly but if they don’t relapse they can do it. Edited December 3, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost
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