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Posted (edited)

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

 

 

Edited by RichRiderBills
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:08 PM, RichRiderBills said:

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

Expand  

 

The "odds" of the Bills beating the Patriots are good IMO.

The "odds" of Miami beating the Patriots are minuscule IMO.

Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 12:36 PM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

... With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

Expand  

i don't think we're, 'locked' at the 5th seed. theoretically, we could finish as high as 2nd or anywhere in between. but definitely no lower than 5th. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:08 PM, RichRiderBills said:

4 % to win AFCE seems like some sort of unrealistically low PFF garbage.

 

Odds of bills beating pats are probably like 35 to 40 percent, and odds of Pats losing to phins is probably 20 percent or maybe a little better.

 

Dont see how both happening could get that low.

 

 

Expand  

Let's say there's a 30% chance that we beat New England, a 20% chance that New England loses to Miami, and a 75% chance that we beat the Jets.

 

0.3 X 0.2 X 0.75 = 4.5%

  • Like (+1) 3
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:32 PM, BillsFanSD said:

Let's say there's a 30% chance that we beat New England, a 20% chance that New England loses to Miami, and a 75% chance that we beat the Jets.

 

0.3 X 0.2 X 0.75 = 4.5%

Expand  

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 12:36 PM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

NFL   http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN Playoff Machine   http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings    https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html      > 99% to make it.  ????  > 99 LOL 

 

CBS    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

  • PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

     
    AFC SCENARIOS:   NFC SCENARIOS:
    No remaining AFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
     
      No remaining NFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
     

    AFC CLINCHES:   NFC CLINCHES:
    BALTIMORE clinched a playoff berth (Week 14), the AFC North division title (Week 15)
    KANSAS CITY clinched the AFC West division title (Week 14)
    NEW ENGLAND clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    BUFFALO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
      NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13)
    SEATTLE clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    SAN FRANCISCO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    GREEN BAY clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)

    During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

 

 

AFC
SEED TEAM DIVISION RECORD
1
BAL.png (y) Baltimore 
North 12-2-0
2
NE.png (x) New England 
East 11-3-0
3
KC.png (y) Kansas City 
West 10-4-0
4 South 9-5-0
5
BUF.png (x) Buffalo 
East 10-4-0
6 North 8-6-0
 
STILL ALIVE
SEED TEAM DIVISION RECORD
7 South 8-6-0
8 South 6-7-0

 

Colts may be eliminated tonight if I heard correctly last night. 

 

With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

Expand  

Yup.  There are two teams below them that can match 10 wins, but Buffalo owns the first tie breaker on both of them (head to head).  I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted (edited)
  On 12/16/2019 at 1:34 PM, The Red King said:

 

Would Indy somehow squeek in if they got into a three way tie, perhaps? ?

Expand  

 

They have a lot of variables that have to go their way .. currently listed at less than a 1% chance.

Edited by CorkScrewHill
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:46 PM, TigerJ said:

I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

Expand  

If Houston gets to 10 wins, they win the AFCS even if Tennessee wins out.  (Conference record, I think).

Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:17 PM, Foxx said:

i don't think we're, 'locked' at the 5th seed. theoretically, we could finish as high as 2nd or anywhere in between. but definitely no lower than 5th. 

Expand  

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 3:30 PM, CorkScrewHill said:

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

Expand  

 

Great info.  3 seed would amazing and a home playoff game likely against steelers. pats would have to go to houston where they already lost this year. We'd likely have a nice win

Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:45 PM, buffalobillswin said:

I really hope the Bills have earned not playing on Saturday at 4:30 in the playoffs. 
 

I want a Saturday night or Sunday game!

Expand  

 

Well, we've gone from "just happy to be here" to demanding specific time slots in a hurry, haven't we!

  • Haha (+1) 3
Posted (edited)
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:46 PM, TigerJ said:

Yup.  There are two teams below them that can match 10 wins, but Buffalo owns the first tie breaker on both of them (head to head).  I admit though that I haven't looked at how it works if the Titans managed to go on and win the AFC South .  Could Houston end up with 10 wins?  What would the tiebreaker be there?

Expand  

 

Looks like Houston would win the tie breaker (division record) against TEN even if they lose to them in week 17. So, if Houston beats Tampa Bay next week I think we are going to Houston unless we win the division.

Edited by Chemical
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 2:45 PM, buffalobillswin said:

I really hope the Bills have earned not playing on Saturday at 4:30 in the playoffs. 
 

I want a Saturday night or Sunday game!

Expand  

Don’t count on it.

  On 12/16/2019 at 3:30 PM, CorkScrewHill said:

2nd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out, and Chiefs lose 1;

3rd seed if Bills win out, pats lose out; and Chiefs win out;

5th seed any other scenario.  We cannot be the 4th seed as for us to win the division we would need to win out and the Texans could not catch us in that scenario.

Expand  

Why would Chiefs be ahead of us?

Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 12:36 PM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

NFL   http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN Playoff Machine   http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings    https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html      > 99% to make it.  ????  > 99 LOL 

 

CBS    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

  • PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

     
    AFC SCENARIOS:   NFC SCENARIOS:
    No remaining AFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
     
      No remaining NFC clinch scenarios for Week 15.
     

    AFC CLINCHES:   NFC CLINCHES:
    BALTIMORE clinched a playoff berth (Week 14), the AFC North division title (Week 15)
    KANSAS CITY clinched the AFC West division title (Week 14)
    NEW ENGLAND clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    BUFFALO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
      NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13)
    SEATTLE clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    SAN FRANCISCO clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)
    GREEN BAY clinched a playoff berth (Week 15)

    During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

 

 

AFC
SEED TEAM DIVISION RECORD
1
BAL.png (y) Baltimore 
North 12-2-0
2
NE.png (x) New England 
East 11-3-0
3
KC.png (y) Kansas City 
West 10-4-0
4 South 9-5-0
5
BUF.png (x) Buffalo 
East 10-4-0
6 North 8-6-0
 
STILL ALIVE
SEED TEAM DIVISION RECORD
7 South 8-6-0
8 South 6-7-0

 

Colts may be eliminated tonight if I heard correctly last night. 

 

With 10 wins the Bills are LOCKED in at the 5 seed.  

 

Expand  

 

Man that X looks so nice after week 15

  • Like (+1) 2
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 3:54 PM, teef said:

they don't have times worked out for these yet...do they?

Expand  

playoff games?

 

No   BUT I suspect 2 on Saturday 3:30 is and 8"00 ish

 

and 2 on Sunday  12:30 - 1PM  and then 4:30 

 

  On 12/16/2019 at 4:10 PM, MAJBobby said:

 

Man that X looks so nice after week 15

Expand  

it sure does 

 

 

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