Josh Allen haters: a 10 year history lesson on 1st round QBʻs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Here's everyone's rookie campaign since 2011, fwiw.

 

 

Thank you very much, Hokie!  This is much more legible and includes much more info in a more readable form, including rush yards and  rush TDs

 

Can you explain the color-coding?

I can tell that it's sorted by QB rating, which is not a stat I love.

 

PS tip to those who don't know, if you click on it, it will enlarge and be readable

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you very much, Hokie!  This is much more legible and includes much more info in a more readable form, including rush yards and  rush TDs

 

Can you explain the color-coding?

I can tell that it's sorted by QB rating, which is not a stat I love.

 

PS tip to those who don't know, if you click on it, it will enlarge and be readable

Color coding is just for visual. Darkest green is best in said category, darkest red is worst. Also QB Rating, which it's sorted by, is my version of the stat. Passer rating is the traditional one, and it's a couple columns to the left

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Color coding is just for visual. Darkest green is best in said category, darkest red is worst. Also QB Rating, which it's sorted by, is my version of the stat. Passer rating is the traditional one, and it's a couple columns to the left

 

Oh, Cool Beans!  I thought it was ESPN's "total QB rating" which....let's not get into my opinion of that abhomination.

 

It being the case that it's your QB Rating stat, can you repeat your explanation of what goes into your QB rating?

Thanks much!

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

Pro Bowl Caliber QBs currently playing that were not drafted in the first round.  

-Tom Brady

-Drew Brees (I guess.  He was the first pick of the 2nd round)

-Dak Prescott

-Russel Wilson

If I needed a QB I would take one early.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Oh, Cool Beans!  I thought it was ESPN's "total QB rating" which....let's not get into my opinion of that abhomination.

 

It being the case that it's your QB Rating stat, can you repeat your explanation of what goes into your QB rating?

Thanks much!

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

[WideNine]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why do you think those stats are important?

 

W/L % is really not a QB stat. 

Completion percentage is important, but it matters if a guy is checking it down or taking shots downfield...so YPA are important.

TD and INT are, but why just passing TD and not total TD?  And of course, the ratio to TD to INT may be important.

Passing yards are not correlated to winning, except that there seems to be a "floor" of about 200-220 ypg where if a QB isn't achieving those he can't make it.

 

Anyway, if you wish to keep posting these fine, but it would help if you could change the formatting to single-space between each name.

 

That and they are Year 1 metrics.

 

A year Allen was not even supposed to see time behind center, did not practice with the ones in training camp, and was thrust into service as an emergency option vs plan. 

 

A partial year as he was knocked out of the lineup with an injury.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

 

I Like It.  HokieQBR for King Stat

No seriously - sounds like it addresses a lot of things I don't like about passer rating while avoiding the "toss everything but the kitchen sink and subjectivity into it" horror of ESPN Total QBR.  It gives credit to rushing yards and TDs, and takes credit for turnovers.

 

Nice.
 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

 

OK, FWIW.  Hokie kindly sent me his link, and I sliced it and diced it according to the 4 stats my own study suggested as needed to have a successful long-term NFL QB - this is not "magical franchise world beater QB" whatever that means to different individuals, but a guy your team can win with consistently if they have a defense around him.

 

Those would be completion %, TD/INT ratio, YPA, and a floor of >220 ypg.  It needs several seasons of data to be meaningful as a total, because many eventually good QB such as Drew Brees, Payton Manning, Alex Smith etc did not meet these criteria in their first 16 starts.  This is totally empirical - I started with a list of QB and a pile of data and messed around until I came up with criteria that captured good long term QB on one side and excluded not-so-good guys on another.  It excluded Newton, Eli Manning, and Cutler which was controversial at the time....not so much now.  The criteria themselves are permissive, the key is the guy has to hit all 4.  It's completion percentage >59%, YPA >6.5, TD/INT >1.5, and a floor of about 220 ypg.  All the above looking only at passing, that being a QB's primary job  (but of course, it can be argued that total offensive production matters and should be taken into account, thus what Hokie does)

 

So Allen this season (but not in total) is hitting 3 out of 4.  He's at 62.5% completion, 6.88 ypa, and 224 ypg.  BUT, he is only at 0.71 TD/INT ratio.  Even if his rush TDs are included, he is only at 0.9 TD/INT.  If he can keep up the good work but tame the INTs, maybe we've got something.

 

 

[WideNine]

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, FWIW.  Hokie kindly sent me his link, and I sliced it and diced it according to the 4 stats my own study suggested as needed to have a successful long-term NFL QB - this is not "magical franchise world beater QB" whatever that means to different individuals, but a guy your team can win with consistently if they have a defense around him.

 

Those would be completion %, TD/INT ratio, YPA, and a floor of >220 ypg.  It needs several seasons of data to be meaningful as a total, because many eventually good QB such as Drew Brees, Payton Manning, Alex Smith etc did not meet these criteria in their first 16 starts.  This is totally empirical - I started with a list of QB and a pile of data and messed around until I came up with criteria that captured good long term QB on one side and excluded not-so-good guys on another.  It excluded Newton, Eli Manning, and Cutler which was controversial at the time....not so much now.  The criteria themselves are permissive, the key is the guy has to hit all 4.  It's completion percentage >59%, YPA >6.5, TD/INT >1.5, and a floor of about 220 ypg.  All the above looking only at passing, that being a QB's primary job  (but of course, it can be argued that total offensive production matters and should be taken into account, thus what Hokie does)

 

So Allen this season (but not in total) is hitting 3 out of 4.  He's at 62.5% completion, 6.88 ypa, and 224 ypg.  BUT, he is only at 0.71 TD/INT ratio.  Even if his rush TDs are included, he is only at 0.9 TD/INT.  If he can keep up the good work but tame the INTs, maybe we've got something.

 

 

 

Fair enough assessment. I am hoping he tames that hero-ball stubbornness that crops up. 

 

You can tell there are times he is chaffing under the tight reigns that Daboll has on him. But they are necessary restrictions at this stage in his development.

 

Even the underneath throws that dominate his game I feel are necessary by design with all the cover1 and 2 teams have used this year to discourage the deeper routes.

 

I think it is in him to improve in this area, but I expect that Maverick aspect of his game to be a struggle for him till he has a few more years of on the job learning and a few melt downs under his belt.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, WideNine said:

Fair enough assessment. I am hoping he tames that hero-ball stubbornness that crops up.

You can tell there are times he is chaffing under the tight reigns that Daboll has on him. But they are necessary restrictions at this stage in his development.

Even the underneath throws that dominate his game I feel are necessary by design with all the cover1 and 2 teams have used this year to discourage the deeper routes.

I think it is in him to improve in this area, but I expect that Maverick aspect of his game to be a struggle for him till he has a few more years of on the job learning and a few melt downs under his belt.

 

I sometimes think Daboll deliberately hands him a game plan rich in those underneath routes and dump-offs he didn't take last year and couldn't really be pushed to take last year because we didn't have the WR who could get there and haul 'em in successfully.  Now we do, and I sometimes think Daboll is giving him a game plan rich in those routes because he wants to build Josh's confidence that 1) he can make them consistently 2) he can move the chains and win with them.

 

I do think Josh chafes under that strategy and wants to revert to hero-ball.  I think it's clear Josh would like to be Patrick Mahomes.  Well, he's not.  He can improve his accuracy and he has, but that "I can thread any ball through a needle even when I'm standing on one foot and throwing sidearm" is not gonna be obtainable by Josh.  And that's OK.  It's not clear to me Mahomes will stay Mahomes when his cast of WR and TE inevitably change or when he's under a different coach and offensive system (others may disagree, in fact I know others do disagree *cough* and that's fine, it's the difference between a Raven and a Crow at this point).

Maverick of me, but I think it could potentially be a blessing in disguise that we had that ST miscue and that Allen got knocked out of the game and perhaps couldn't pull off a come-back vs NE.  Sometimes "nothing fails like success", and it may, long term, be a more convincing "teaching moment" for Josh and Daboll than any words could be if we'd won.