At 4-1, what are your record and playoff expectations? [edited title]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, ny33 said:

At 4-1, the Bills have generally performed as anyone who closely follows the team should have expected as of the conclusion of preseason. Allen is going to lose us more games than he wins, but he has the ability and has shown flashes of the consistency needed to be .500 or better vs. real contenders, and it’s critical for the team to put away inferior opposition such as NYJ/CIN. Here's how I envision the season if we stay relatively healthy and Josh can generally execute as he did vs. Tennessee (take what you get vs. the defense, get the ball out quickly, and make just 1-2 boneheaded plays a game).

 

I appreciate a guy who takes the trouble to put the thought and time into a post that you put here.

 

But you lost me right here.  The team is 4-1.  Allen has been the starter for all 4 of those wins.  In the wins, his play has been instrumental in bringing us back.

So how is this even possible? 

 

I think I understand what you mean: Allen will continue to make mistakes, including some boneheaded plays that result in turnovers and require our D to bail him out, and that won't always happen.  Perhaps "Allen will continue to make critical mistakes that put the Bills in a hole and require defensive excellence and comebacks to win" might be a better way of phrasing it.

 

Quote

Remaining game predictions:

W. vs. Mia (5-1)  0-4

L. vs. Phi (5-2)    3-2

W. vs. Wash. (6-2) 0-4

W. @ Cle. (7-2)   2-3

W @ Mia (8-2)    0-4

W vs. Den. (9-2) 1-4

L @ Dal. (9-3)     3-2

W vs Bal. (10-3) 3-2

W @ Pitt. (11-3) 1-4

L @ NE (11-4)     5-0

W vs. NYJ (12-4) 0-4

 

I added the team records as of this week in Red, above.

 

So fundamentally, your prediction is that we win every game against a team that currently has a losing record, even if it's a close losing record like 2-3?

And we lose every game against a team that currently has a winning record, except Baltimore which for some reason you feel is less legit than Philly or Dallas in that record?

 

I would like to see us finish with a record like 11-4 - double digit wins.  I think it's possible.  But if we finish with that record, it won't be because "Allen is going to lose us more games than he wins", and the chances that we beat every team with a losing record we face are small.

 

If we've really made progress, we need to beat a couple of good teams - teams that win.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think this point is underappreciated by some Bill's fans.  You can make a strong argument that last year Allen was put into a position every bit as bad as Rosen was.

Everything from not taking a lot of 1st team snaps during training camp & preseason; a terrible O-line; the worst reeving core (WR's & TE's) in the NFL and a weak stable of RB's.

 

That Allen has made the progress he has is a main reason to be optimistic.

 

Agreed 100%.  I would go further to say that in the Dregs of Larry Fitzgerald plus Christian Kirk, Rosen had significantly more to work with at WR than Allen did with Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin, and that I thought our OL performed worse than the Cardinals (we may have had slightly better players, but they performed worse).  The only negative Rosen had that Allen did not, was the same OC all through the season instead of having his QB coach pulled into the OC role partway through.  But Allen had a WR coach as his QB coach, so maybe that's a wash - though Culley seems to be doing OK in Baltimore so far.

 

Basically the above is the reason I changed from being a "wrong Josh" to a "right Josh"er:

Allen had the same or less to work with than Rosen did on offense, and he did more with it.  There is no doubt in my mind that Allen raised the level of play and elevated the team around him, and that's what a QB who can develop into "the Man" needs to be able to do. 

 

And that's why a statement like "Allen is going to lose us more games than he wins" simply can't be supported.

 

 

 

[mjd1001]

I would have to think 10-6 or 11-5.  While I think the Bills are better than most of the teams on their upcoming schedule....there are just those days in the NFL where the better team doesn't win.  Bad calls, unexptected injuries, bad decisions by a 2nd year QB....one Big play that wasn't expected...etc.

 

With that said, I think 11-5 is a good possibility with them making the playoffs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Lol even the negatives are struggling to be positive.

 

I'm sticking with my 10-6, but wouldn't be surprised to see better.

 

An atom walks into a bar and says "I've lost an electron".  The bartender says "are you sure?"  The atom replies  "Yes. I'm positive"

[TroutDog]

31 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

TLDR.

 

My prediction is the same as it was last week, last month and last June.  
 

Maybe a variation of +/- 1 game 

 

12-4 to 14-2. 
I can’t go that much higher. 
 

Or did you expect lower?  
 

Shirley you jest 

I don’t. 
 

And stop calling me Shirley! ? 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

An atom walks into a bar and says "I've lost an electron".  The bartender says "are you sure?"  The atom replies  "Yes. I'm positive"

 

Love it. Lol

[Gugny]

W. vs. Mia (5-1)  0-4

L. vs. Phi (5-2)    3-2

W. vs. Wash. (6-2) 5-0

W. @ Cle. (7-2)   2-3

W @ Mia (8-2)    0-4

W vs. Den. (9-2) 1-4

L @ Dal. (9-3)     3-2

W vs Bal. (10-3) 3-2

W @ Pitt. (11-3) 1-4

L @ NE (11-4)     5-0

W vs. NYJ (12-4) 0-4

 

I'm looking at it more from a "Bills defense vs. QBs who are not that good," perspective.

 

The three losses are against (QBs) Wentz, Prescott and Brady.

 

I consider all of the WINS above as games the Bills actually should win, bringing us to 12-4.  If we can steal one from PHI, DAL or NE, that brings us to 13-3 and I think that wins the division.

 

I don't think 12-4 taking the division is a crazy thought.  If we can beat NE in NE (tough task) and beat them in a tie-breaker, that would be sweet.  I can't see NE going any worse than 12-4.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, Baba Booey said:

We will go 12/4 this year and have the third best record in the AFC. They will win a wild card game in the playoffs and get beat by KC in the divisional round. We will praise the coaching staff for how quickly they turned this around and McDermott will win coach of the year! 

 

I don't know, I think this Bills team can beat anyone.They "should" only get better as the season goes on. I mean everyone is basically new on offense and I believe they will get better and more chemistry will evolve for all of them. Especially if the Oline can stay healthy for the most part.

 

But yeah, I think with this defense the Bills can have a very good shot at beating any team, even the almighty Chiefs and pats, and any NFC team. Feel pretty good about them and excited to see the offense take that next step as the season progresses.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, Gugny said:

W. vs. Mia (5-1)  0-4

L. vs. Phi (5-2)    3-2

W. vs. Wash. (6-2) 5-0

W. @ Cle. (7-2)   2-3

W @ Mia (8-2)    0-4

W vs. Den. (9-2) 1-4

L @ Dal. (9-3)     3-2

W vs Bal. (10-3) 3-2

W @ Pitt. (11-3) 1-4

L @ NE (11-4)     5-0

W vs. NYJ (12-4) 0-4

 

I'm looking at it more from a "Bills defense vs. QBs who are not that good," perspective.

 

The three losses are against (QBs) Wentz, Prescott and Brady.

 

I consider all of the WINS above as games the Bills actually should win, bringing us to 12-4.  If we can steal one from PHI, DAL or NE, that brings us to 13-3 and I think that wins the division.

 

I don't think 12-4 taking the division is a crazy thought.  If we can beat NE in NE (tough task) and beat them in a tie-breaker, that would be sweet.  I can't see NE going any worse than 12-4.

 

If 12-4 takes the division and we lose to NE 2x, that would mean that NE record is 11-5

Question: Which 5 teams on the remaining NE schedule are going to beat them, if we can't?

Reminder: NE plays the Jets, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and Dolphins. 

 

I think 12-4 taking the division is a very crazy thought.  We would need at least 13-3 and one win over NE to pull that off.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Anything less than 15-1 and I’m not going to watch them in the playoffs.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

48 minutes ago, Gugny said:

W. vs. Mia (5-1)  0-4

L. vs. Phi (5-2)    3-2

W. vs. Wash. (6-2) 5-0

W. @ Cle. (7-2)   2-3

W @ Mia (8-2)    0-4

W vs. Den. (9-2) 1-4

L @ Dal. (9-3)     3-2

W vs Bal. (10-3) 3-2

W @ Pitt. (11-3) 1-4

L @ NE (11-4)     5-0

W vs. NYJ (12-4) 0-4

 

I'm looking at it more from a "Bills defense vs. QBs who are not that good," perspective.

 

The three losses are against (QBs) Wentz, Prescott and Brady.

 

I consider all of the WINS above as games the Bills actually should win, bringing us to 12-4.  If we can steal one from PHI, DAL or NE, that brings us to 13-3 and I think that wins the division.

 

I don't think 12-4 taking the division is a crazy thought.  If we can beat NE in NE (tough task) and beat them in a tie-breaker, that would be sweet.  I can't see NE going any worse than 12-4.

 

 

 

Bills are going to beat the eagles. 

[Boatdrinks]

If the Bills stay relatively healthy ,  I think their 4-1 start gives them a good look at 10-6. I think they will have losses to PHL, DAL, PIT, and NE. Also one game that most fans would expect them to win, as over the course of a season this happens to most teams. Even the Pats*. So 10-6 and a WC berth. At that point it comes down to the matchup, but their defense should give them a good shot at a road victory and a trip to KC in the divisional round. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

If the Bills stay relatively healthy ,  I think their 4-1 start gives them a good look at 10-6. I think they will have losses to PHL, DAL, PIT, and NE. Also one game that most fans would expect them to win, as over the course of a season this happens to most teams. Even the Pats*. So 10-6 and a WC berth. At that point it comes down to the matchup, but their defense should give them a good shot at a road victory and a trip to KC in the divisional round. 

 

Thus team isn't losing to Philadelphia. Pittsburgh? Lol

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Thus team isn't losing to Philadelphia. Pittsburgh? Lol

Just a gut feeling. Pretty sure the Bills have about 1 win @ PIT in their franchise history. While we all know Ben is out, that franchise has a trophy case full of Lombardi’s and won’t be a pushover at home. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Just a gut feeling. Pretty sure the Bills have about 1 win @ PIT in their franchise history. While we all know Ben is out, that franchise has a trophy case full of Lombardi’s and won’t be a pushover at home. 

 

Have you seen them play this season?

[Gugny]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If 12-4 takes the division and we lose to NE 2x, that would mean that NE record is 11-5

Question: Which 5 teams on the remaining NE schedule are going to beat them, if we can't?

Reminder: NE plays the Jets, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and Dolphins. 

 

I think 12-4 taking the division is a very crazy thought.  We would need at least 13-3 and one win over NE to pull that off.

 

 

BUF, KC, HOU, DAL, PHI can all beat NE.  If Baltimore had a good QB, I'd add them.  But I can't see them beating NE.

[HOUSE]

If this team wins 12 games, I will  buy that meat grinder at Ace hardware....I always wanted one

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Have you seen them play this season?

Actually, yes. As I said, most NFL teams  stumble sometime in a 16 game season with a head scratching loss. That game  would qualify for sure. Hopefully the Bills are immune to this and maintain laser-like focus. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11-5

Losses to Pats, Eagles, Cowboys, and Browns

5th seed WC

Win on the road over AFC South Division winner

Edited October 13, 2019 by Ethan in Portland

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Bills are going to beat the eagles. 

Yes, they are.