What are we missing offensively?

[Shortchaz]

We score more when the defense creates turnovers. 

 

This is is purely observational, it seems like we are constantly on the wrong side of the turnover/field position battle(s). 

 

I will add that when we get on the edge of field goal range we tend to go backwards via sack/penalties 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Shortchaz

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Play designs are poor.  Play calling of the poorly designed plays is not good either.  There is a lot to coaching beyond game day coaching.  The Bills coaching staff seems to be good at the non-game day coaching.  But average Bills fans have a dozen plays a game where they are all scratching their heads asking what were the Bills thinking. (recent obvious example, QB sneak on a fourth and 2).    Sports have a variety of success measures. In baseball at the major league level if you put the ball safely in play 30% of the time you are a star. If you are a goaltender and save 93% of the shots in the NHL, you are a star.  If you save 90% of the shots, you are just OK, if you save 85% of the shots, you are out of the league.   NFL play calling is closer to NHL goal tending than it is to MLB hitting.  Bills are missing too often during games. 
 

 

 

The 4th and 2 was a poor call. But beyond that Daboll had a very good game Sunday. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1.  The ‘old’ Billy Buffalo.

2.  A foolproof plan and an airtight alibi.  (Might need to study the New England Patriots for this.)

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

Yeldon was a fumbler in college too if I recall correctly - especially in key situations where it was more costly.

 

I'm guessing he would have had more carries in his NFL career if he didn't.

 

Since Yeldon has been in the NFL, he has fumbled 6 times on 475 carries.

In the same time Gore has fumbled 10 times on 1,015 carries.

 

So yes, Gore has had more fumbles, but it is because he has had a lot more carries over the same time.    And using Gore as a measuring stick is not a great idea.

 

My understanding (maybe I am wrong) is that a running back with good ball security is supposed to fumble less than once out of every 100-125 rushes.   Gore has been around average at best.  Yeldon is below average in ball security.  

 

So maybe saying Yeldon is a "huge liability" is the wrong wording.   But he is a liability and proved it with his costly fumble in the biggest game the Bills played yet this season.

 

In my opinion, he is not good enough and should not even be on this team.   He is more risk than reward.   just my opinion.

 

 

 

 

Gore has fumbled 46 times over 3547 carries.  That's 1.33% or once every 77 carries---poor call security by your own measure.  Yeldon is 1.26%, essentially the same.  You can't conclude one is "average" and the other is "below average".  And you can't pick a portion of Gore's career to make your point--that makes no sense.

 

If you really want to talk about ball security, the second leading rusher on the team has 5 fumbles on 41 carries this season and last season had 8 fumbles on 89 rushes.  That guy fumbles the ball on 10% of his runs!  More risk than reward?

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Is AJ Green not playing because he's being shopped? I read that he might have been able to play last week

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Gore has fumbled 46 times over 3547 carries.  That's 1.33% or once every 77 carries---poor call security by your own measure.  Yeldon is 1.26%, essentially the same.  You can't conclude one is "average" and the other is "below average".  And you can't pick a portion of Gore's career to make your point--that makes no sense.

 

If you really want to talk about ball security, the second leading rusher on the team has 5 fumbles on 41 carries this season and last season had 8 fumbles on 89 rushes.  That guy fumbles the ball on 10% of his runs!  More risk than reward?

 

 

Weo, the Bills should hire you for your analytics!!?

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, the skycap said:

Is AJ Green not playing because he's being shopped? I read that he might have been able to play last week

Weo, the Bills should hire you for your analytics!!?

 

Don't they have like some video guy doing analytics?  lol

[PolishDave]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Gore has fumbled 46 times over 3547 carries.  That's 1.33% or once every 77 carries---poor call security by your own measure.  Yeldon is 1.26%, essentially the same.  You can't conclude one is "average" and the other is "below average".  And you can't pick a portion of Gore's career to make your point--that makes no sense.

 

If you really want to talk about ball security, the second leading rusher on the team has 5 fumbles on 41 carries this season and last season had 8 fumbles on 89 rushes.  That guy fumbles the ball on 10% of his runs!  More risk than reward?

 

 

 

lol.   You chose to use Gore as a measuring stick.   Not me.   

 

During the time they have been in the league together - Gore has been better at ball security than Yeldon.    If you think that doesn't matter then okay it doesn't matter to you.   I think it matters to the coaches who want the best player now or at least a player then are confident will execute better.   If they didn't pay more attention to recent production then Kelvin Benjamin would still be in a Bills uniform.

 

But pointing out that ball security was an issue for both of them at some point in their career does not bolster whatever point you thought you were making about Yeldon being some great trustworthy ball carrier.   

 

Yeldon's career has shown that he historically fumbles too much and when he does (because of bad luck or whatever reason) it is often times at a costly point in the game.   He is the type of player that costs you more in mistakes than he makes up for in production.   And it appears the NFL has already seen his ceiling.

 

It is okay that you think he is a great player who needs more playing time.   For whatever reason you are enamored with the guy.   I just disagree.   I don't trust him with the ball.   I don't think the coaches should trust him with it either.   I wish the Bills had a better backup.  

 

I'll leave it at that.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Easy...

Christian McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Sherlock Holmes

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Don't they have like some video guy doing analytics?  lol

If these were the ‘old days’, the analytics guy would be figuring out if hot dogs or hamburgers sold better at NEF.

[dave mcbride]

15 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

Yeldon was a fumbler in college too if I recall correctly - especially in key situations where it was more costly.

 

I'm guessing he would have had more carries in his NFL career if he didn't.

 

Since Yeldon has been in the NFL, he has fumbled 6 times on 475 carries.

In the same time Gore has fumbled 10 times on 1,015 carries.

 

So yes, Gore has had more fumbles, but it is because he has had a lot more carries over the same time.    And using Gore as a measuring stick is not a great idea.

 

My understanding (maybe I am wrong) is that a running back with good ball security is supposed to fumble less than once out of every 100-125 rushes.   Gore has been around average at best.  Yeldon is below average in ball security.  

 

So maybe saying Yeldon is a "huge liability" is the wrong wording.   But he is a liability and proved it with his costly fumble in the biggest game the Bills played yet this season.

 

In my opinion, he is not good enough and should not even be on this team.   He is more risk than reward.   just my opinion.

 

No, he has fumbled 6 times on 656 touches. He has 181 receptions too. That can't be left out.

[WideNine]

38 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

lol.   You chose to use Gore as a measuring stick.   Not me.   

 

During the time they have been in the league together - Gore has been better at ball security than Yeldon.    If you think that doesn't matter then okay it doesn't matter to you.   I think it matters to the coaches who want the best player now or at least a player then are confident will execute better.   If they didn't pay more attention to recent production then Kelvin Benjamin would still be in a Bills uniform.

 

But pointing out that ball security was an issue for both of them at some point in their career does not bolster whatever point you thought you were making about Yeldon being some great trustworthy ball carrier.   

 

Yeldon's career has shown that he historically fumbles too much and when he does (because of bad luck or whatever reason) it is often times at a costly point in the game.   He is the type of player that costs you more in mistakes than he makes up for in production.   And it appears the NFL has already seen his ceiling.

 

It is okay that you think he is a great player who needs more playing time.   For whatever reason you are enamored with the guy.   I just disagree.   I don't trust him with the ball.   I don't think the coaches should trust him with it either.   I wish the Bills had a better backup.  

 

I'll leave it at that.

 

In crunch time I would prefer Gore to Yeldon in regards to ball security.

 

Analytics be damned?

 

For me it has more to do with how each carries the ball. One carries it like a purse, and the other carries it like he's protecting a baby while falling down a flight of steps.

 

Those last runs by Gore he was so wrapped around the ball you could not even see any of the ball peeking out.

 

He just has more of my confidence in situations where I know teams are desparately trying to punch it out.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

48 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

lol.   You chose to use Gore as a measuring stick.   Not me.   

 

During the time they have been in the league together - Gore has been better at ball security than Yeldon.    If you think that doesn't matter then okay it doesn't matter to you.   I think it matters to the coaches who want the best player now or at least a player then are confident will execute better.   If they didn't pay more attention to recent production then Kelvin Benjamin would still be in a Bills uniform.

 

But pointing out that ball security was an issue for both of them at some point in their career does not bolster whatever point you thought you were making about Yeldon being some great trustworthy ball carrier.   

 

Yeldon's career has shown that he historically fumbles too much and when he does (because of bad luck or whatever reason) it is often times at a costly point in the game.   He is the type of player that costs you more in mistakes than he makes up for in production.   And it appears the NFL has already seen his ceiling.

 

It is okay that you think he is a great player who needs more playing time.   For whatever reason you are enamored with the guy.   I just disagree.   I don't trust him with the ball.   I don't think the coaches should trust him with it either.   I wish the Bills had a better backup.  

 

I'll leave it at that.

 

 

You can repeat this all you want, it doesn't become less wrong and more true.

 

I compared him to Gore obviously because that's who he is competing for touches with. 

 

I haven't even hinted that he is a "great player" nor that he is "some great trustworthy ball carrier"---- you made that up as well, straw man killer. 

 

Good idea...

 

 

 

 

39 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

If these were the ‘old days’, the analytics guy would be figuring out if hot dogs or hamburgers sold better at NEF.

 

Ralph would have demanded to know...

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No, he has fumbled 6 times on 656 touches. He has 181 receptions too. That can't be left out.

 

Don't confuse Polish Dave

[C.Biscuit97]

Besides John Brown, this is a slow offense.  

[Malazan]

I'd say the realistically fixable thing is pre-snap penalties. Fix those and you sustain more drive. Bills score more points. Teams start to change the way they defend the Bills and longer passes open  up more. 

 

The second thing is to keep Allen focusing on not making mistakes. Defenses are ok with him beating them on shorter routes because they assume he'll make a mistake eventually. When they have the penalties come down and Allen doesn't make mistakes, they have to start stopping the shorter game and that opens up the longer game. 

 

They also need to figure out the run game. They've been able to move the ball, but the run game is either in-frequent, ineffective or both. The last drive Tenn knew the Bills were going to run and couldn't stop it. Where was that earlier in the game?

Edited October 9, 2019 by jeremy2020

[T master]

I think we got it last week when they brought Duke up & got rid of Zay ... Duke will make the catches that Zay missed especially in the red zone !! 

 

I believe moving forward Duke will become a favorite of Josh .

[jrober38]

The Bills need an elite, big bodied receiver who is "open when they're not open". 

 

They've needed that guy since Eric Moulds left. 

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Play designs are poor.  Play calling of the poorly designed plays is not good either.  There is a lot to coaching beyond game day coaching.  The Bills coaching staff seems to be good at the non-game day coaching.  But average Bills fans have a dozen plays a game where they are all scratching their heads asking what were the Bills thinking. (recent obvious example, QB sneak on a fourth and 2).    Sports have a variety of success measures. In baseball at the major league level if you put the ball safely in play 30% of the time you are a star. If you are a goaltender and save 93% of the shots in the NHL, you are a star.  If you save 90% of the shots, you are just OK, if you save 85% of the shots, you are out of the league.   NFL play calling is closer to NHL goal tending than it is to MLB hitting.  Bills are missing too often during games. 
 

 

 

I don't think that is true at all. There may be a head scratcher here or there; however, for the most part, the play calling has been good. The problem has been consistency (Beginning with their 3rd quarter after lunch siesta they've taken in 4 of 5 games) and critical (meaning ending drives and scoring opportunities) drops, penalties, and turnovers. Cleaning that up alone will make this offense much better and lead to more points.

 

Even with all that, and new players at a lot of positions, they are moving the ball to the tune of almost 375 YPG (12th in the NFL), and they have been almost money in the red zone. I am looking forward to the offense continuing to improve over the remainder of the season.

[PaattMaann]

35 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Besides John Brown, this is a slow offense.  

 

McKenzie can burn, Foster is fast (but hurt), Beasley is quick....I wouldnt say we have a slow offense. And many many many successful offenses dont have a ton of speed, we have more than enough to be successful 

[Fan in San Diego]

I saw Gil Brandt recommend a trade for AJ Green. I think a seventh rounder would be in order. 31 and Injury prone at this point.

[Dr.Sack]

More TD passes and more long drives. Cutting our turnovers over the first 5 games in half over the next 5 games would be huge. I suspect we will do that in the upcoming 3 game home stand.