Status of AFC: Should Bills Go All In For 2019?

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not willing to trade for a guy who hasn't been cleared for practice. I don't buy that they are just trying to protect his trade value. If he was healthy enough to practice he would be practicing because that helps them trade him. I don't think teams will be lining up to trade for a guy who hasn't even been out there in the week yet this season. 

 

 

You're in luck.........you can't trade for an injured player in the NFL so don't even get exercised by the thought.    When he's traded he will be ready to play and have to be cleared by the acquiring team.    Remember.......it's not a today problem.  

[whatdrought]

I don't believe in "going for it all" as an excuse to overpay or make silly trades. Last year is a great example of that. The rams became the hip team by blowing the doors off and going for broke. It worked, for sure, but they get to the superbowl and get humiliated by the team that never does anything other than build football teams their way. We're young, we have a ton of cap space going forward, we've got a ton of draft capital, and we've got a FO with a great track record. We're opening a SB door, not a window. If Allen is the guy, we'll be in the conversation for the next 10 years at this rate. I wouldn't mind adding pieces, but don't ever overpay.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don't believe in "going for it all" as an excuse to overpay or make silly trades. Last year is a great example of that. The rams became the hip team by blowing the doors off and going for broke. It worked, for sure, but they get to the superbowl and get humiliated by the team that never does anything other than build football teams their way. We're young, we have a ton of cap space going forward, we've got a ton of draft capital, and we've got a FO with a great track record. We're opening a SB door, not a window. If Allen is the guy, we'll be in the conversation for the next 10 years at this rate. I wouldn't mind adding pieces, but don't ever overpay.

 

The best window to hyper-stock your roster are between years 1-3 of your rookie QB's deal.

 

They are right in the middle of that.

 

The days of getting 5 years until you extend your high quality QB are over..........if they play well enough to be considered franchise you extend them after year 3.

 

As for what they are building............keep in mind that they are the 6th oldest team in the NFL.

 

The Seahawks were the youngest team in the NFL when they won their SB with defense and a young QB.......and just 3 seasons later that team was mostly blown up except for the QB.

 

This team has a few young studs but it's mostly players in their prime...........it's not a wait til next year situation...........the team will change a lot from year to year and sustaining top defense is very difficult.

[whatdrought]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The best window to hyper-stock your roster are between years 1-3 of your rookie QB's deal.

 

They are right in the middle of that.

 

The days of getting 5 years until you extend your high quality QB are over..........if they play well enough to be considered franchise you extend them after year 3.

 

As for what they are building............keep in mind that they are the 6th oldest team in the NFL.

 

The Seahawks were the youngest team in the NFL when they won their SB with defense and a young QB.......and just 3 seasons later that team was mostly blown up except for the QB.

 

This team has a few young studs but it's mostly players in their prime...........it's not a wait til next year situation...........the team will change a lot from year to year and sustaining top defense is very difficult.

 

I understand that that's the idea now, that you have to win before you pay your QB. There's two big issues with that- one, nobody has actually done it unless you count the Seahawks, but they didn't do the "go for broke" approach, they just built a great team. Second issue is that the new CBA will, in some way or another, eliminate this issue.

 

As for the age of our roster, that's exactly why we can't be overpaying for limited resources. This FO has done a great job identifying depth and talent. They're going to keep building. Teams that shoot to win quickly usually fail, whereas teams that continue to build depth and build a solid team from top to bottom are consistent contenders. Winning the superbowl is about 75% of being a great team, and 25% being lucky (from injuries, to bad calls, to every little thing that goes on in a 16 week season)- the recipe for success is sustained years of being a good team and contending each and every year. 

[reddogblitz]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not willing to trade for a guy who hasn't been cleared for practice. I don't buy that they are just trying to protect his trade value. If he was healthy enough to practice he would be practicing because that helps them trade him. I don't think teams will be lining up to trade for a guy who hasn't even been out there in the week yet this season. 

 

Not scientific but on the Bengals game last week they said he was pretty much ready but he was being cautious because he wants to come back 100% for the stretch run in his contract season.  I think it's good to get a guy on his contract year because he's $uper motivated to play well and catch a lot of pa$$e$.  Go for it unless the price is too high..

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

On 10/7/2019 at 1:49 AM, jwhit34 said:

Given:

• The AFC looks very middling except for New England and KC and the Bills played NE tough and KC looked a little vulnerable vs. Indy.
• The Bills have a favorable schedule.
• The defense looks like it could be elite/championship caliber.
• They have most of their key players under contract through 2020 (Alexander probably retires, only starters not signed for '20 are Levi Wallace, Quinton Spain, Frank Gore, key subs not under contract are Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips)
• The team is in a favorable cap situation in '20

 

Is there enough of a chance to go for it for 2019 by giving up some future assets (draft picks) to get 2-3 players to help them contend this year or is 2020 the year to go for it? Do they have enough to get Trent Williams and a top notch WR (Diggs or Green)? 

 

Would they/you be willing to part with to get two high end players for the offense? 

 

Green would be a rental for 11 games and has a $12.1 salary component so pro-rated he would cost about $8 million on the cap. Trent Williams is $11 million salary so would count about $7.3 million on the cap.

 

Would Cincy take a 3rd and a player for Green (Foster or Zay)?

Would Washington take a 2nd and a player (Foster or Zay - whoever Cincy doesn't take)?

 

Would they be willing to trade both picks? Would the addition of both players be enough to make the offense top 10? 

 

I think 2020 roster looks great but they will play the NFC West and AFC West and the 2nd place teams from AFC North and South, so the schedule will be tougher. 

 

Getting two players like that, then getting SIngletary back from injury and maybe even Kroft is a real boost and could make a big difference. 

 

 

 

 

I say yes but not at WR, how many more WR are we going to fit on this roster? The addition of Williams now makes this group a decent unit. I want the Bills to go all in on a damn pass rusher, up until last week when our DT suddenly erupted for 3 sacks we had one of the lowest sack totals in the league despite being ranked high. If anything happens to Hughes we are in trouble as far as getting to the QB, we need someone opposite of Hughes. Get Ryan Kerrigan in here from the Redskins, he has 3 sacks on a putrid Redskins team but the DL is actually doing good, he'd be a rental for us in his last year but a major upgrade to anything we have now. Kerrigan has more sacks than both Murphy and Lawson together already.

Edited October 8, 2019 by BuffaloBillsGospel

[Boatdrinks]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Bills will have over $80 million in cap space next offseason.... they can afford to pull the trigger on a big trade(as long as it doesn't involve a first rounder) for a guy like Green without jeopardizing their future.

 

A 2nd or 3rd round pick for a top talent WR isn't going to kill this team or any team. 

This ^^. It’s a year to year league, and if the Bills are in a good spot around the trade deadline they should be willing to make moves. Next year’s schedule appears tougher as well. Nothing is guaranteed , so they have to take shots when they have them. 

[whatdrought]

28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Bills will have over $80 million in cap space next offseason.... they can afford to pull the trigger on a big trade(as long as it doesn't involve a first rounder) for a guy like Green without jeopardizing their future.

 

A 2nd or 3rd round pick for a top talent WR isn't going to kill this team or any team. 

 

I wouldn't hate that trade at all, I was referring to the idea of going all in. That being said, like many have said, Green is a risky business because of his history and his current injury status.

[whatdrought]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

But you aren't risking a whole hell of a lot and it's not going to kill the team going forward whatsoever. 

 

 

 

Probably the same logic we used to defend the KB trade...

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I understand that that's the idea now, that you have to win before you pay your QB. There's two big issues with that- one, nobody has actually done it unless you count the Seahawks, but they didn't do the "go for broke" approach, they just built a great team. Second issue is that the new CBA will, in some way or another, eliminate this issue.

 

As for the age of our roster, that's exactly why we can't be overpaying for limited resources. This FO has done a great job identifying depth and talent. They're going to keep building. Teams that shoot to win quickly usually fail, whereas teams that continue to build depth and build a solid team from top to bottom are consistent contenders. Winning the superbowl is about 75% of being a great team, and 25% being lucky (from injuries, to bad calls, to every little thing that goes on in a 16 week season)- the recipe for success is sustained years of being a good team and contending each and every year. 

 

 

1. Just in the past 2 years teams that have ridden first contract QB's and to the SB or the brink

Eagles WON SB.........Wentz missed playoffs but they were the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC most of that season thanks to Wentz.

Rams won NFC..........and they were outstanding the year before in Goff year 2 after being woeful in Goff year 1 and loading up that offseason.

Chiefs lost in AFC Championship

And the Eagles and Rams in particular made a bunch of trades of draft picks for vets...........I don't think any of those teams would change a thing.   Draft picks are great when they work but even McD's 2017 draft only has 3 players left from it.   

 

2. Again, False.  The CBA is set to expire after the 2020 season........which is when Allen is eligible to sign a long term extension.   And even so HOW will the CBA change it?  What side wants that?   

 

As for the rest of your argument..........you gotta' be in it to win it.    The Seahawks proved that you can't really create a modern dynasty by having a team full of young players..........they were literally the NFL's youngest roster when they won the SB and they got consumed with trying to keep everyone and then it was over pretty quick.   How you handle change is the key.    The Pats turn over a ton of players every year.    The Bills signed 18 free agents this offseason and are 4-1.   It's not about clutching draft picks to stack cheese it's about getting players that fit for that team that year........even if they are rentals.   

[dous21]

at this point there are no offensive weapons out there available. unless AJ Green will be dealt for a 3rd and 5th round pick. 

 

so we should be doing whatever it takes to acquire Von Miller 

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1. Just in the past 2 years teams that have ridden first contract QB's and to the SB or the brink

Eagles WON SB.........Wentz missed playoffs but they were the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC most of that season thanks to Wentz.

Rams won NFC..........and they were outstanding the year before in Goff year 2 after being woeful in Goff year 1 and loading up that offseason.

Chiefs lost in AFC Championship

And the Eagles and Rams in particular made a bunch of trades of draft picks for vets...........I don't think any of those teams would change a thing.   Draft picks are great when they work but even McD's 2017 draft only has 3 players left from it.   

 

2. Again, False.  The CBA is set to expire after the 2020 season........which is when Allen is eligible to sign a long term extension.   And even so HOW will the CBA change it?  What side wants that?   

 

As for the rest of your argument..........you gotta' be in it to win it.    The Seahawks proved that you can't really create a modern dynasty by having a team full of young players..........they were literally the NFL's youngest roster when they won the SB and they got consumed with trying to keep everyone and then it was over pretty quick.   How you handle change is the key.    The Pats turn over a ton of players every year.    The Bills signed 18 free agents this offseason and are 4-1.   It's not about clutching draft picks to stack cheese it's about getting players that fit for that team that year........even if they are rentals.   

 

The Eagles signed a bunch of talent, but the depth of their team was there before Wentz- the OL and the DL which is what made them great. The Rams are an argument for the exact opposite side- they got the SB but got spanked and now look like a much lesser team because they shot their shot and now have no depth and their rentals are all expiring. 

 

Draft picks are great, and they are important for depth all over the field, not just in starters. I'm not anti-trade, I am against the idea that teams should "go for broke" with QB's on rookie deals because all you're going to do is end up with a team with a one year window- someone goes down and that window slams shut and you're left mopping up the pieces for five years. 

 

Instead, you should seek to develop players constantly so each time you have a pricey FA leave, you have another ready to go. This can only happen by being wise with picks and money. That doesn't mean no trades, and no FA signings, but rather it means not throwing all the eggs in the basket of one season. It's sustainability. 

 

The seahawks problem wasn't that they did what you said, it's that they didn't know where to let people go and how to restructure on the fly. They are doing so now, but it's been a harsh rebound time. Some of that is unavoidable, but some of it is that they didn't want to let go of guys soon enough. Look at the falcons- they're a great example of holding on to that small window too long instead of continuing to build and develop the team year after year. 

 

Contracts signed this year are already being done so in light of the new CBA and by the time Allen is ready for a new deal, the CBA will be a huge deal with negotiation and trying to figure out how things will look. It will change it because teams cannot continue to pay QB's 30+% of their cap. There will be some measure taken to fix the disparity. Don't know what that'll be, but we can revisit this then if you'd like. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

The Eagles signed a bunch of talent, but the depth of their team was there before Wentz- the OL and the DL which is what made them great. The Rams are an argument for the exact opposite side- they got the SB but got spanked and now look like a much lesser team because they shot their shot and now have no depth and their rentals are all expiring. 

 

Draft picks are great, and they are important for depth all over the field, not just in starters. I'm not anti-trade, I am against the idea that teams should "go for broke" with QB's on rookie deals because all you're going to do is end up with a team with a one year window- someone goes down and that window slams shut and you're left mopping up the pieces for five years. 

 

Instead, you should seek to develop players constantly so each time you have a pricey FA leave, you have another ready to go. This can only happen by being wise with picks and money. That doesn't mean no trades, and no FA signings, but rather it means not throwing all the eggs in the basket of one season. It's sustainability. 

 

The seahawks problem wasn't that they did what you said, it's that they didn't know where to let people go and how to restructure on the fly. They are doing so now, but it's been a harsh rebound time. Some of that is unavoidable, but some of it is that they didn't want to let go of guys soon enough. Look at the falcons- they're a great example of holding on to that small window too long instead of continuing to build and develop the team year after year. 

 

Contracts signed this year are already being done so in light of the new CBA and by the time Allen is ready for a new deal, the CBA will be a huge deal with negotiation and trying to figure out how things will look. It will change it because teams cannot continue to pay QB's 30+% of their cap. There will be some measure taken to fix the disparity. Don't know what that'll be, but we can revisit this then if you'd like. 

 

 

The Eagles traded draft picks for Alshon Jeffrey,  Michael Bennett and Ronald Darby.    They definitely put their chips all in and they were a team with a losing record the season before they won the SB.

 

I don't think the Rams would change the approach they took it got them to the SB.    Like Beane they went heavy on adding vets to fix the OL and age and contracts have caught up with them but they just need a little re-tooling to get back near the top.   Their biggest issue is Gurley's failing knee after they tied up a fortune in him.

 

What it comes down to is the approach of propping up young QB's with talent and getting a shot at the SB in the process WORKS.

 

A new CBA isn't going to change the % of salary cap that QB's get.   The system works.........teams with big dollar QB's still make the playoffs A LOT.   The most important player on teams in all sports usually get paid crazy money.  The players association sure isn't going to concede ANYTHING to re-distribute wealth and the owners aren't going to increase the % of the pie they pay to address an issue that's not really an issue.

[Teddy KGB]

Pats interested in AJ green 

 

Time to outbid them ✊?

[LSHMEAB]

On 10/7/2019 at 5:22 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the philosophy McDermott and then Beane sold to the Pegulas was to try to build a perennial contender. 

Given that philosophy, I think you can expect to see a deal or deals only if it makes sense from that perspective.

https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-kerrigan/1462/

But there was the KB trade, so I'm not so sure about this. I generally agree. I don't think they're giving up a first for a receiver and that's really the crux of the question.

[buffalo2218]

I'd try to make a trade with the Bengals, but not AJ Green, Geno Atkins would be pretty nasty on this D line. I saw this mentioned in another thread and I find that quite tempting

[LSHMEAB]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The best window to hyper-stock your roster are between years 1-3 of your rookie QB's deal.

 

They are right in the middle of that.

 

The days of getting 5 years until you extend your high quality QB are over..........if they play well enough to be considered franchise you extend them after year 3.

 

As for what they are building............keep in mind that they are the 6th oldest team in the NFL.

 

The Seahawks were the youngest team in the NFL when they won their SB with defense and a young QB.......and just 3 seasons later that team was mostly blown up except for the QB.

 

This team has a few young studs but it's mostly players in their prime...........it's not a wait til next year situation...........the team will change a lot from year to year and sustaining top defense is very difficult.

ALL OF THIS. The time to win and go bold is NOW. Maybe they'll come up short against KC or NE. Whatever. There's no reason to be content with just staying competitive. I understand that the overall philosophy of the regime is continual improvement and all that jazz. That's fine. This really all hinges on Allen. He's going to steadily improve throughout the course of the season if he's the real deal. If you've got the QB in place, on his rookie deal, you strike hard.

 

I don't think they will, but I think they should.

[Dr. Who]

I think AJ Green would accelerate Allen's progress and make the wr corps significantly more dangerous. I hope we make a run at acquiring him.

[NoSaint]

On 10/7/2019 at 3:37 AM, GunnerBill said:

No stupid short term moves - which means no to Trent Williams and no to AJ Green. If Diggs came loose at a sensible price I would do that one but the Bills just have to stay the course. We should not be building a one hit wonder. Let's build this to be good for a 5, 6, 7 year run.

If josh is the guy - he gets paid in 3-4 years and that short term piece comes off the books. We are in a cap situation where we can buy proven talent instead of hoping for unproven. It’s an incredible privilege that a lot of folks seem scared of.

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The best window to hyper-stock your roster are between years 1-3 of your rookie QB's deal.

 

They are right in the middle of that.

 

The days of getting 5 years until you extend your high quality QB are over..........if they play well enough to be considered franchise you extend them after year 3.

 

As for what they are building............keep in mind that they are the 6th oldest team in the NFL.

 

The Seahawks were the youngest team in the NFL when they won their SB with defense and a young QB.......and just 3 seasons later that team was mostly blown up except for the QB.

 

This team has a few young studs but it's mostly players in their prime...........it's not a wait til next year situation...........the team will change a lot from year to year and sustaining top defense is very difficult.

Can’t repeat these points enough times. It constantly amazes me how many people seem scared of ruining our shot 5 years from now. 

[ny33]

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Probably the same logic we used to defend the KB trade...

KB was a fat and lazy bastard. I have no such concerns about Green (though he could very well be a physical wreck). Diggs has some motivation concerns, sure.